Energy in the Western Hemisphere; Regional, National & Global Implications Ray Ritcey, CEO, The Maritimes Energy Association Energy Interdependence in the Western Hemisphere Global Interdependence Center November 5, 2015
Atlantic Canada Insights • • • • •
Maritime Link Offshore Operations & Exploration LNG Onshore Exploration Emera purchase of TECO Energy
Maritime Link
Photo courtesy of Nova Scotia Department of Energy
Deep Water Exploration Activity
Courtesy of Nova Scotia Department of Energy
Northeast US Shale Supply – The Game Changer 19 Bcf/d
Current Actual
40 Bcf/d
2025 Avg Estimate Power Generation
City Gate & Power Generation
40
Source: Various Consultants
30
Marcellus
20
City-Gate Market Growth
10 0 2010
40
Power Generation Mexico
Marcellus Estimated Production Volume (Bcfd)
Gulf Coast LNG & Industry Courtesy of Maritimes & Northeast Pipeline
2015
2020
2025
2030
Utica Estimated Production Forecasts (Bcfd) Source: Various Consultants
30 20 10
0 2010
Utica 2015
2020
2025
2030
Connections to North America
Courtesy of Nova Scotia Department of Energy
Shipping time to key markets Sailing Dates
7 days 17 days
27 days
5 days 21 days
13 days Photo Courtesy of Nova Scotia Department of Energy
EXPANDED GEOGRAPHIC and REGULATORY DIVERSIFICATION Pro forma regulatory snapshot
Pro forma asset map
Grand Bahama Power Company
Florida
Grand Bahama Dominican Republic
Barbados Light & Power Company, DOMLEC, Lucelec
Florida
New Mexico
Pipelines 1
Transmission lines
Power plants
Maritime Link (ML) and Labrador Island Link (LIL) are equity accounted Electric and Peoples Gas average rate base based on earnings surveillance reports filed to FPSC in December 2014. NMGC rate base as of September 30, 2014 as disclosed by TECO
Nova Scotia Power Rate base CAD$3.7bn Allowed ROE 8.75% – 9.25% Equity capitalization 37.5 – 40.0% Emera Maine (Transmission / Distribution) Rate base CAD$400mm / CAD$300mm Allowed ROE 10.57% – 11.74% / 9.55% Equity capitalization 62.0% / 49.0% Emera Caribbean Rate Base CAD$0.9bn Allowed Return on Rate Base 10.0% –15.0% Emera Newfoundland /Labrador Transmission (estimated 2017)1 Rate Base ~CAD$2.0bn Allowed ROE 9.0% (ML) / 8.8% (LIL) Equity capitalization 30.0% (ML) / 100.0% (LIL) Tampa Electric Rate base ~USD$4.8bn2 Allowed ROE 9.25% – 11.25% Equity capitalization 54.0% Peoples Gas Rate base USD$715mm2 Allowed ROE 9.75% – 11.75% Equity capitalization 54.7% New Mexico Gas Rate base USD$517mm2 Allowed ROE 10.0% Equity capitalization 52.0%
Pro Forma 2,400,000 customers
2 Tampa
Courtesy of Emera
Where to From Here • Direction from newly elected Federal Government Economy Energy – opening up markets; environment (carbon); First Nations
• Success of Shell and BP offshore exploration programs; • Success of LNG projects; • For now, there appears to be limited onshore petroleum development opportunities in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.