Some Thoughts About Commodities

McVEAN Trading & Investments, LLC

Some Thoughts About Commodities

Michael Drury March 26, 2012 Paris, France

Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.

0

CHINESE RR FREIGHT VS ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION 3 MONTH AVERAGE %CHANGE FROM A YEAR AGO

35.0%

30.0%

25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

-5.0%

-10.0% Jan-00

Jan-02

Jan-04 RAIL

Jan-06

Jan-08

Jan-10

Jan-12

ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION

Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.

1

PER CAPITA GDP 2010 DOLLARS

$24,000

$21,000

$18,000

$15,000

$12,000

$9,000

$6,000

$3,000

$0 Jan-69

Jan-73

Jan-77

Jan-81

Jan-85 SOUTH KOREA

Jan-89

Jan-93 TAIWAN

Jan-97 CHINA

Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.

Jan-01

Jan-05

Jan-09

2010

2

GROWTH IN PER-CAPITA GDP INCOME 5 YEAR ANNUAL % CHANGE IN 2010 DOLLARS

9.0%

8.0%

7.0%

6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0% Jan-74

Jan-78

Jan-82

Jan-86

Jan-90

SOUTH KOREA

Jan-94

Jan-98

TAIWAN

Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.

Jan-02

Jan-06

Jan-10

2010

3

MOTOR VEHICLE PRODUCTION IN CHINA MILLIONS OF UNITS

20

15

10

5

0 1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.

2008

2009

2010

2011

4

PER CAPITA GDP 2010 DOLLARS BENCHMARKED TO SIMILAR STARTING POINTS FOR MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT (1973 FOR S. KOREA AND 2007 FOR CHINA) $25,000

$20,000

$15,000

$10,000

$5,000

$0 Jan-69

Jan-73

Jan-77

Jan-81

Source: ERS International Macroeconomic Data Set

Jan-85

Jan-89

Jan-93

Jan-97

Jan-01

SOUTH KOREA

Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.

Jan-05

Jan-09

CHINA

5

PER CAPITA SOYBEAN MEAL CONSUMPTION 5 YEAR ENDING MOVING AVERAGE

120

100

POUNDS

80

60

40

20

0

Source: USDA

SOUTH KOREA

JAPAN

Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.

CHINA

Forecast: 11/12; 12/13

6

Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.

7

Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.

8

U.S. Corn Planted Acres

100,000 90,000 80,000

1,000 ACRES

70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000

20,000 10,000 0

Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.

9

U.S. Corn Use for Ethanol

6,000

5,000

MILLION BUSHELS

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0 02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

ACTUAL CONSUMPTION

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

MANDATED LEVEL

Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.

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THE AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS "Chart of the Century“

107

4.4

101

4.2

96

4.0

90

3.8

84

3.6

79

3.4

73

3.2

68

3.0

62

Grain Fed to Beef Cattle +,Residual US, (mmt)

4.6

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

The Model (mmt)

The Model 5YREMA vs. Grain Fed to Beef Cattle + Residual 5YREMA

The Model 5YREMA

The Model (Est.) Grain Fed to Beef Cattle + Residual (mmt) 5YEMA Grain Fed to Beef Cattle + Residual (mmt) Est. Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.

11

CORN IN US DOLLARS DAILY

800

750

700

650

600

550

500

450

400

350

300 1/4

3/5

5/4

7/3

9/1

10/31

12/30

2/28

4/29

6/28

8/27

10/26

12/25

2/23

Mar-12 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.

12

COPPER IN US DOLLARS DAILY

11000

10000

9000

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000 Jan-09

May-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

Mar-12 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.

13

CRUDE OIL VS GASOLINE

WEEKLY; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 140

420

120

370

100

320

80

270

60

220

40

170

20

120

0 1/4/1999

70 1/4/2000

1/4/2001

1/4/2002

1/4/2003

1/4/2004

1/4/2005

WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE

1/4/2006

1/4/2007

1/4/2008

1/4/2009

1/4/2010

1/4/2011

1/4/2012

NATIONAL AVERAGE ALL GRADES

Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.

14