McVEAN Trading & Investments, LLC
Some Thoughts About Commodities
Michael Drury March 26, 2012 Paris, France
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
0
CHINESE RR FREIGHT VS ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION 3 MONTH AVERAGE %CHANGE FROM A YEAR AGO
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0% Jan-00
Jan-02
Jan-04 RAIL
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
1
PER CAPITA GDP 2010 DOLLARS
$24,000
$21,000
$18,000
$15,000
$12,000
$9,000
$6,000
$3,000
$0 Jan-69
Jan-73
Jan-77
Jan-81
Jan-85 SOUTH KOREA
Jan-89
Jan-93 TAIWAN
Jan-97 CHINA
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
Jan-01
Jan-05
Jan-09
2010
2
GROWTH IN PER-CAPITA GDP INCOME 5 YEAR ANNUAL % CHANGE IN 2010 DOLLARS
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0% Jan-74
Jan-78
Jan-82
Jan-86
Jan-90
SOUTH KOREA
Jan-94
Jan-98
TAIWAN
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
Jan-02
Jan-06
Jan-10
2010
3
MOTOR VEHICLE PRODUCTION IN CHINA MILLIONS OF UNITS
20
15
10
5
0 1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
2008
2009
2010
2011
4
PER CAPITA GDP 2010 DOLLARS BENCHMARKED TO SIMILAR STARTING POINTS FOR MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT (1973 FOR S. KOREA AND 2007 FOR CHINA) $25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0 Jan-69
Jan-73
Jan-77
Jan-81
Source: ERS International Macroeconomic Data Set
Jan-85
Jan-89
Jan-93
Jan-97
Jan-01
SOUTH KOREA
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
Jan-05
Jan-09
CHINA
5
PER CAPITA SOYBEAN MEAL CONSUMPTION 5 YEAR ENDING MOVING AVERAGE
120
100
POUNDS
80
60
40
20
0
Source: USDA
SOUTH KOREA
JAPAN
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
CHINA
Forecast: 11/12; 12/13
6
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
7
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
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U.S. Corn Planted Acres
100,000 90,000 80,000
1,000 ACRES
70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000
20,000 10,000 0
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
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U.S. Corn Use for Ethanol
6,000
5,000
MILLION BUSHELS
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0 02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
ACTUAL CONSUMPTION
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
MANDATED LEVEL
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
10
THE AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS "Chart of the Century“
107
4.4
101
4.2
96
4.0
90
3.8
84
3.6
79
3.4
73
3.2
68
3.0
62
Grain Fed to Beef Cattle +,Residual US, (mmt)
4.6
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
The Model (mmt)
The Model 5YREMA vs. Grain Fed to Beef Cattle + Residual 5YREMA
The Model 5YREMA
The Model (Est.) Grain Fed to Beef Cattle + Residual (mmt) 5YEMA Grain Fed to Beef Cattle + Residual (mmt) Est. Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
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CORN IN US DOLLARS DAILY
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300 1/4
3/5
5/4
7/3
9/1
10/31
12/30
2/28
4/29
6/28
8/27
10/26
12/25
2/23
Mar-12 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
12
COPPER IN US DOLLARS DAILY
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000 Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Mar-12 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
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CRUDE OIL VS GASOLINE
WEEKLY; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 140
420
120
370
100
320
80
270
60
220
40
170
20
120
0 1/4/1999
70 1/4/2000
1/4/2001
1/4/2002
1/4/2003
1/4/2004
1/4/2005
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE
1/4/2006
1/4/2007
1/4/2008
1/4/2009
1/4/2010
1/4/2011
1/4/2012
NATIONAL AVERAGE ALL GRADES
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
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