Strategy in Uncertainty
A guide to anticipate and act in a time of uncertainty July 2016
CONFIDENTIAL
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
Strategy in Uncertainty
“Prediction is very difficult – especially about the future” - Niels Bohr, quantum physicist and Nobel Prize Winner (1922)
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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Objectives of these materials
• Introduce a framework and methodology to anticipate and act in times of unprecedented uncertainty • Share some perspectives on what the signposts are indicating regarding the future energy landscape
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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There are many variables that can affect any business: Utility Example Market environment • U.S. economy • Canadian economy • Global GDP growth • Capital markets (yield curve, cost of capital, etc.) • Consumer preferences, trends, and social media • Energy intensity (per capita, per $ GDP) • Energy spend as percent of income or revenue • Generation – utility and IPP • Transmission – electrical wires and gas pipeline • Global and North American petrochemical demand • Global development of potential shale plays • Competitive activity: new competitors, and asset builds/ expansions
Regulation and Policy
Technology
Energy costs and supply
• Licensing of new and existing nuclear plants
• Fracking techniques / technologies
Crude oil
• State and federal rules on fracking and disclosures
• PE cracking technological improvements, e.g. coal to olefins
• Energy independence
• EPA regulations on coalfired generation • Federal GHG regulation • Global compact on GHG • State and federal rules and incentives for renewables, energy efficiency, etc. (e.g. RPS, ITC, PTC)
• Utility-scale renewable cost experience curve • Electricity storage and transmission technology • Next-gen nukes (incl. modular) • Coal and gas turbine
• Foreign imports Coal • Pricing and supply • Mining and emission regulations • Import / export dynamic Gas and NGLs • Pricing and production
• State and federal subsidies for alternatives to gasoline/diesel
• Distributed generation
• NGL prevalence and frac spread (oil, NGLs vs. gas) • Fracking constraints
• FERC, NERC, other regulatory body standards and rulings
• Energy efficiency, demand mgmt. / response • AMI / "smart meter" / Smart Grid evolution
• Import / export dynamics
• Public safety (pipeline and other), reserve margins, etc.
• New segments of demand, e.g. long-haul trucking and North American GTL
• Cyber-security, geopolitics, and policy
• Gas infrastructure Nuclear • Permitting process • Loan guarantees • Next-gen technology • Public opinion
Even if each bullet point represented one bimodal variable would be 2^45 possible outcomes This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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Energy costs and supply: on just the production variable, projections vary widely CRUDE OIL
NATURAL GAS
COAL
GREEN POWER
Notes: North American production only Source: Analyst set includes EIA, IEA, Exxon, IHS, among others This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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And future price forecasts are ‘unusable’…
WTI CRUDE OIL Implied price (95% confidence) $200/bbl
150
Upper confidence Lower confidence Futures price Historical price
HH NATURAL GAS Implied price (95% confidence) $10/MBtu 8
Upper confidence Lower confidence Futures price Historical price
6 100 4 50
0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: EIA June 2016; Bain analysis (Probability values created using NYMEX market data) This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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codeceues
codecepe
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‌As history teaches us these forecasts are often wrong
WTI CRUDE OIL
2009 2011 2012 2014 2016
HH NATURAL GAS
2009 2011 2012 2014 2016
Source: EIA June 2016; Bain analysis (Probability values created using NYMEX market data) This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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Strategy, as traditionally designed, is about clarity and alignment from ambition to execution at the front line Bold, inspiring full potential ambition Ambition
Where to Play
How to Win
Actions that Drive to Full Potential
Roadmap to Deliver Results
Clear choices on where to play and how to win
Initiatives and capabilities to repeat success
Plan and routines to align the front line
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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In periods of heightened uncertainty, however, strategy creation can fall into common traps UNDERCONFIDENCE
OVERCONFIDENCE
Treating uncertainty as “unknowable’”
“Rifle shot” views of the future
Focusing only on things that can be controlled “Wait and see” stance on market changes Doubling down to protect incumbency Few reinvention or innovation bets A bet on every square to manage risk
Ambition
Where to Play
How to Win
Actions that Drive to Full Potential
Lack of direction in front line execution
Roadmap to Deliver Results
Bold, but unrealistic or vague ambition Failure to anticipate competition Rigid pursuit of new business models Big and monolithic bets that create “lock-in” Little or no focus on risk management Heads down and rigid execution
Modified approach is needed This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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Dealing with Future uncertainties
• The primary means of forecasting by most companies, analysts, and economists today consists of: - Development of a base case (usually based on significant analysis of 3-5 variables and building a “story” for why that is the most likely - Adjustment of variables to create a “high case” and a “low case”
• Shell created a different concept of “scenario analysis,” which takes 3-5 reasonably likely scenarios, and then builds potential strategies around each scenario, putting probabilities against them and using those to include into hurdle rates for investment decisions • We have developed a new approach that identifies the “extreme, but plausible corners” of an infinite cube of scenarios. This approach allows us to identify clearly the variables that matter most, set them as “signposts” and monitor for disruptive “tipping points”. There is tremendous economic value to be created if you can see a disruption coming 3-5 years ahead of competitors This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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Among economic signposts, experience curves are important to monitor as they highlight “tipping points�
VHS tape becomes mainstream
Laserdisc offers alternative to VHS
DVD is introduced and laserdisc stops production 2 years later
Streaming technology disrupts music and video industry
Source: IC Insights; ICE Status; Electronic Design; Singularity University This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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Consumers adopt new technology once its capability and price become more attractive than its predecessor MUSIC: ECOMMERCE PENETRATION Legend
VIDEOS & DVDS: ECOMMERCE PENETRATION Legend
Actual
Actual
Prediction using Forrester forecast
Prediction using Forrester forecast
The growth of iTunes, founded in 2001, contributed to the acceleration of ecommerce penetration in music.
Historical
Forecast
Historical
Forecast
Note: Videos and DVDs - DVDs and VHS. Includes digital downloads. Music CDs, digital downloads, and streaming services; Forrester ecommerce estimates based on any purchase paid for online (regardless of whether delivered or picked up in store); Source: Forrester; Bain analysis This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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Unless there are substitution barriers which may slow penetration NORTH DAKOTA FLARING
North
FLARES VISIBLE FROM SPACE
Bakken formation
Eagle Ford
• Low Gas Prices caused rigs to rapidly shift to “wet” plays • However, midstream infrastructure was not in place…thereby creating a substitution barrier • As a result, gas was flared and WTI crude prices decoupled from Brent.
• Bakken flaring burns more than $100 million per month (~30% of production) • Bakken flares are being replicated in other shale regions, including Texas • As rail and other infrastructure has been put in place, the WTI/Brent spread has narrowed
Source: NASA, Financial Times This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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We assess the strategic implications in order to understand potential actions to take, now and in the future
ENERGY EXAMPLE
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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As an example, we developed 8 “corner scenarios� for energy markets No imports
U.S. Energy consumption (Qbtu)
2030 EIA Reference
Hydrocarbon Starved
Gas Land
Oil Rebirth
Hydrocarbon World
Green Nirvana
Green Mandate
Green Power
Feuding Fuels
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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Collectively, these scenarios covered a wide range of volumes and prices CRUDE OIL
NATURAL GAS
$4/MMbtu Gas Land
$60/bbl Oil Rebirth
$120/bbl
$10/MMbtu
Green Nirvana
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
Green Nirvana
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Signposts (the variables most important for identifying disruption) were set to “extend the headlights” Global Oil Signposts Production Growth • Iraq production
OPEC’s Influence • OPEC production levels and spare capacity
• Brazil deepwater production • Other conventional production
Demand Growth • Oil consumption in developed nations • Economic growth in emerging markets
• North America Production North America Production Metrics Basin Productivity
Supply Chain Capacity
Access & Regulations
Available Resources • Current and forecasted EUR
• Initial production rates
• Monthly rig count
• Current and proposed fracking restrictions
• Drilling days / frack stages
• Dry vs. wet rig deployment
• Federal acreage open/leased
• Planned E&P capital investment
• Well depletion rates
• Rig costs (day rates & breakeven)
• Drilling applications & permits
• Price differentials (basin vs market)
• Number of wells
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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Watching the signposts on cost of tight gas allowed us to see the explosion three years before everyone else E-CURVES SHOWED THE COMING DISRUPTION OF SHALE
ANALYSTS DID NOT PAY ATTENTION TO FRACKING UNTIL IT WAS DISRUPTIVE
SWN Fayetteville shale gas well costs ($/Mcf) 100
Slope = 72%
50
The world began to notice shale gas’ disruption
2004 2005
20
2006
10
2007
2007 price
2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2012 2014 2015
5
2
Signposts indicated viability
10,000
Cumulative # of wells drilled
5,000
2,000
1,000
500
200
100
50
20
10
1
Note: 2013-15 $/Mcf costs based on % improvement in break-even oil costs over the same period Source: Argonne National Lab, EIA, Google Trends, The Atlantic, SWN company financials; EIA; Rystad; Company websites and press releases; Bain analysis This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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We saw the same pattern in tight oil… Eagle Ford breakeven oil prices ($/bbl)
~15% cost decline (’14-’15)
Note: Well cost is weighted average well cost, pads and single wells Source: Rystad; Continental Resources; EIA; Company websites and press releases This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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And suggested in 2012 that low cost supply was likely to exceed demand, affecting global clearing prices Cost of production/import (2012 $/bbl)
2030
2012 average oil price
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Crude production (MBD)
70
80 2016 crude demand
90 Estimated 2030 crude demand
Source: Rystad, IEA, Advanced Resources Int’l, BP Energy Outlook 2030, Bain Analysis This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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And noted throughout 2014 that over-supply situations led to price declines between 30% and 70% 1986
1991
1998
2001
2008 Change in production Change in consumption
Source: EIA, IEA This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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Strategies using this approach have a number of advantages • Strategies are developed that are robust under multiple scenarios -Clear “no regrets” moves
• Strategies have built-out element of optionality • Improved capability to monitor the environment provides visibility 3-5 years out into the future further than today’s strategies -Experience curves -Substitution barriers -Key Technological developments
• Clear decisions are triggered when signposts flash “red” prior to imminent change in the environment • Signposts accord greater time to execute and adjust
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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Objectives of these materials
• Introduce a framework and methodology to anticipate and act in times of unprecedented uncertainty • Share some perspectives on what the signposts are indicating regarding the future energy landscape
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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Some key questions to consider for the future mix and pricing of energy:
• We have seen why prices have dropped dramatically for both gas and oil, but why have they nearly doubled from their lows over the past few months? What does that imply for the future? • The disruptive nature of tight oil and gas experience curves is now well known. Are there other disrupters or major tipping points that are likely to come over the next few years? • Will the history of past boom and bust cycles in the oil industry hold for the future, or are other forces going to change the dynamics?
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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Dropping NA supply, and disruptions to supply, have been a primary driver of price increases the past few months
1,000
Italy’s Val d’Agri shutdown
Columbia’s Caño Limon Pipeline disruptions due to rebel
Ekofisk maintenance
Export blockage In Libya
San Pablo Bay Pipeline leak
Kuwait strike
US PRODUCTION
9,900 9,700 Buzzard maintenance
1,500
Canada wildfire
Nigeria’s interruptions Due to leaks and NDA attacks
2,000
Fire at Brazil’s Barracuda-Caratinga
2,500
Kirkuk-Ceyhan sabotage
Thousand barrels per day
3,000
Maintenance in Murban
SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS
9,300 9,100 8,900 8,700 8,500 8,300 8,100
500 0
9,500
Baghdad’s decision to halt pumping oil from Kirkuk into Turkey
Kuwait Canada North Sea Nigeria US Argentina Ghana Italy Columbia Libya Brazil Abu Dhabi Iraq/Kurdistan
7,900 7,700
Weekly Monthly Weekly production plus balancing term
US rig counts have now started to move up Source: Goldman Sachs This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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Another potential disruptor is change in energy sources for demand applications (power and transport) SUPPLY
INTERMEDIARY Percent of sources
•
Transport
•
Conversion
•
Storage
DEMAND Percent of sectors 9
100 9 24 14 53 <1 9
1 76 15 11 7 44 39
91
28 33 3
5 3 92
35
4 23 72 1
22 13 37 26 1
Source: US Energy Information Administration, Bain analysis This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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Li-ion batteries will likely be one of these disruptors as costs continue to trend down the experience curve RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST ~25% REDUCTION IN COST FOR EVERY DOUBLING OF PRODUCTION Li-ion battery/cell cost ($/kWh) [Log Scale] $2,000
Slope: = 75%
1,000 '12
'13
'14
500
'15
200 100 50 25 10
20
50
Cumulated produced capacity (GWh) [Log Scale] Note: This only includes cell cost; Cost in $2015 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Deutsche Bank, Bain DER analysis; CEMAC; FS-UNEP Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2016 This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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These trends suggest price parity for electric vehicles in the near-term TCO PRICE PARITY FOR EV EXPECTED BY 2020 MSRP + 5 year TCO ($US)
PURCHASE PRICE PARITY FOR EV EXPECTED BY 2022 MSPR ($US)
50,000
50,000
40,000
40,000
30,000
30,000
20,000
20,000
10,000
0 15'
Toyota Camry 200 mile EV 16'
17'
18'
19'
20'
21'
22'
10,000
0 2013
Toyota Camry 200 mile EV 2016
2019
2022
Source: Ark Investment Management This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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As electric vehicle prices reach parity, consumers will increasingly adopt electric vehicles
Brazil’s adoption of flex-fuel vehicles was much more rapid, reaching 94% of new car sales in 2013
Purchase price parity TCO parity
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; Ecowatch; ICCT This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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Battery enhancements will also enable increased energy storage for alternative energy AS BATTERY PRICES FALL, ALTERNATIVE ENERGY WILL INCREASINGLY BE PAIRED WITH BATTERIES…
…INCREASING ALTERNATIVE ENERGY APPEAL AS THESE TECHNOLOGIES RAPIDLY COME DOWN THE LEARNING CURVE
Total GW capacity
1,400 1,200
LCOE ($/MWH) 300
Solar paired with batteries Solar without batteries Cumulative small-scale solar
1,000
Solar Wind
200
800 600
100
400 200 0
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
0 09'
10'
11'
12'
13'
14'
15'
Source: Cleantechnica; Lazard Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis 9.0; GWEC This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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All this will decrease demand for fossil fuels and impact oil/gas prices moving forward EVS EXPECTED TO REDUCE OIL DEMAND CONSIDERABLY…
…BUT CURRENT DEMAND FORECASTS MAY NOT TAKE S-CURVE INTO ACCOUNT Global oil and liquids demand
Expected Mb/d oil offset by EVs 0
150 0
-1
125 -3 -5
IEA expects relatively flat line growth in oil demand
100
75
-7 -10
50 -11
-15
Decreasing demand for oil should maintain lower oil prices
2015
2020
2025
25 -13 2030
2035
2040
0
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Potential for Peak Oil Demand in mid 2020’s Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; Ecowatch; IEA This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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Additionally, fuel cells could further disrupt the oil and gas marketplace ADVANTAGES OF FUEL CELLS • Higher efficiency than diesel or gas engines
FUEL CELL ADVANCEMENTS • Toyota has spent an estimated $8.8B and 20 years developing fuel cell technology
• Zero pollution • Faster refueling than EVs • Greater range than EVs • Potential weight advantages
• In 2015 Toyota released the Mirai, one of the first commercial fuel cell vehicles
• Toyota also announced royalty-free use of approximately 5,680 fuel-cell-related patents to encourage innovation
As fuel cell costs come down, fuel cell vehicles could further disrupt oil prices and overall mix of energy sources Source: Toyota; SeekingAlpha This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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Given the emergence of these signposts, what does this mean for the energy market? • Short term uncertainty will remain within the energy market - Typical approaches to forecasting will provide false accuracy
• Comparative changes in costs of alternative technologies will provide guidance around future trends. Tracking experience curves for key technologies can highlight when “tipping points” will be reached. • More specifically, Li-ion batteries will continue to become more cost efficient, allowing EV’s to displace traditional gas powered vehicles • Solar/Wind energy will increasingly use these batteries to improve alternative energy storage while they become more cost efficient • These newer technologies will offset demand for traditional fossil fuels, putting continual pressure on prices and margins (assuming no major supply disruptions) • Trends in other emerging technologies (such as fuel cells) will need to be monitored to spot disruption before it happens
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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Appendix
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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Real breakthrough in storage will come with next generation batteries (not expected until ~2030) BY 2020, BATTERIES STILL NOT COST COMPETITIVE WITH PEAKERS FOR LARGE-SCALE PLACEMENT
NEW LI-ION TECHNOLOGIES PROMISE HIGHER POWER DENSITIES, BUT THE TRUE BREAKTHROUGH WILL BE LI-AIR Li-Air ~4000
Li-ion w/ Si Nanowire 400
Experience curve effect
Lithium Ion 110-140
LeadAcid 25-45
1860
NickelIron 30-40
NickelCadmium 35-60
1910
NickelMetal Hybride 50-75
1960
2010
2020
2030
Source: DOE Electricity Advisory Committee, BCC Research, Electrical Power and Research Institute (2010) Notes: “Other” includes flow batteries, lead acid, and thermal peak shaving (i.e., ice storage) This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
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