Argentina Debt Restructurings

GIC – Drexel University Conference “Sovereign Debt Restructurings: Prospects and Challenges in Argentina”, 28 February 2020

Argentina Debt Restructurings Elena Duggar, Chair of Moody’s Macroeconomic Board, Associate Managing Director, Credit Strategy and Standards

February 2020

Key Messages

1

Argentina’s government bond rating is Caa2, RUR in the midst of a series of short term debt defaults and a restructuring of medium and long term debt

2

The historical track record of large sovereign debt restructurings suggests a cautious stance on potential recoveries

3

Credit challenges include the large share of foreign currency debt amid limited domestic funding options, and restarting the economy in a challenging global external environment

Argentina Debt Restructurings, February 2020

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Argentina’s government bond rating has been Caa2 since August 2019, currently under RUR » The review for downgrade reflects our view that there is a significant risk of higher losses expected from future negotiations between the government and debt holders

» We could confirm the current rating if the expected terms for the debt restructuring limit investors' losses to around 10%-20% » We would downgrade the rating if we were to conclude that expected losses to investors will likely be higher than 20% Ratings

Foreign Currency

Local Currency

Gov. Bond Rating

Caa2/Ratings Under Review

Caa2/Ratings Under Review

Country Ceiling

Caa1

B2

Bank Deposit Ceiling

Caa1

B2

Source: Moody’s Investors Service

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In default, Moody’s positions ratings to reflect expected recoveries Moody’s ratings refer to the probability of default and loss given default

Approximate expected recoveries associated with ratings for defaulted or impaired securities

Source: Moody’s Rating Symbols & Definitions, January 2020

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Moody’s sovereign bond rating methodology incorporates four key credit factors Factor 1: Economic strength • Growth dynamics • Growth • Volatility • Scale of the economy • Nominal GDP • National income • PPP GDP per capita • Adjustments • Other

Factor 2: Institutional and governance strength • Quality of institutions • Quality of legislative and executive institutions • Strength of civil society and the judiciary • Policy effectiveness • Fiscal policy effectiveness • Monetary and macroeconomic policy effectiveness • Adjustments • Government default history and track record of arrears • Other

Factor 3: Fiscal strength

Factor 4: Susceptibility to event risk

• Debt burden • Debt to GDP • Debt to revenue

• Political risk • Domestic political and geopolitical risk

• Debt affordability • Interest payments to revenue • Interest payments to GDP

• Government liquidity risk • Ease of access to funding

• Adjustments • Debt trend • Share of foreign currency debt • Contingent liabilities • Sovereign wealth funds

• Banking sector risk • Risk of banking sector credit event • Total domestic bank assets • External vulnerability risk • Adjustments

Source: Moody’s Sovereign Bond Ratings Methodology, November 2019

Argentina Debt Restructurings, February 2020

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Argentina’s default timeline Aug. 2019

Post-primary election outcome led to a severe market reaction which in turn raised the government's debt load, lowered debt affordability, and reduced funding sources

On August 28, the government delayed repayment on over $8 billion of short-term debt and signaled its intent also to restructure portions of Argentina's medium and long term debt

Sep. 2019

On September 1, the central bank announced a suite of capital controls meant to ease negative pressure on the exchange rate and stem the outflow of reserves

Dec. 2019

The government postponed payments on short-term LETES (part of the ST debt restructured in August) of about $9 billion in December 2019

Jan. 2020

The government offered holders of LECAPS (ST peso debt that was also part of the ST debt restructured last August) to exchange their bonds for new ST debt of 240 and 355 days in maturity

Feb. 2020

Argentina postponed a $1.47 billion principal payment on the country’s AF20 bond until September 30

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Recent developments

January

February

Argentina’s government submitted a “debt sustainability” bill to Congress, aimed at creating a legal framework to improve debt terms, interest charges and amounts of capital

Province of Buenos Aires avoided a default on its notes due 2021 by making the principal and interest payment within the allowable grace period, but a future broader restructuring of foreign currency debt will likely lead to bondholder losses

February

Argentina postponed a $1.47 billion principal payment on the country’s AF20 bond until September 30

February

Argentina agreed to start consultations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that could lead to a new financing program, days after the IMF assessed Argentina’s debt to be unsustainable

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Heavy upcoming maturities against limited reserves About $20.5 billion and 28.5 billion peso upcoming bond payments in 2020 2020 debt service payments (USD billions, as of December 31, 2019) Principal payments USD

Peso

Maturity schedule for Argentina (USD billions, as of December 31, 2019) Peso Multilateral USD (Letes) USD (medium and long-term)

Interest payments Multilateral

$10

USD

Peso

Multilateral $50

$2.5

$9

$45

$8

$2.0

$40

$7

$35

$6

$1.5

$30

$5 $25 $4

$1.0 $20

$3 $2

$15

$0.5

$10

$1

$5

Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20

$0.0

Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20

$0

$0 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Source: Moody’s Investors Service

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Putting Argentina’s debt numbers in perspective » Argentina’s general government debt totals about $340 billion, or 84 percent of GDP as of end-2019 » Potentially $60+ billion of private sector debt could be restructured » About 80% of government debt is in or indexed to foreign currency Historical sovereign bond default amounts (Total defaulted bond debt, $ billion) 300 261.5 250 200 150

100

82.3

72.7

65.2 42.1

50

29.4 13.3

9.1

7.9

6.6

0 Greece

Argentina

Russia

Venezuela

Greece

Argentina

Ukraine

Jamaica

Jamaica

Ecuador

(Mar. 2012)

(Nov. 2001)

(Aug. 1998)

(Nov. 2017)

(Dec. 2012)

(Jul. 2014)

(Oct. 2015)

(Feb. 2013)

(Feb. 2010)

(Aug. 1999)

Note: Bracket refers to the date of first default. For Venezuela, the combined amount of sovereign and PDVSA bonds outstanding are shown here, and they are the amounts on which the sovereign may ultimately start a debt restructuring.

Source: Moody’s Investors Service

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Large sovereign defaults have low recovery rates There is usually a high level of uncertainty around expected losses Âť The average historical issuer-weighted sovereign loss rate was 45% over 1983-2018. The value-weighted loss rate was 70% because of the large Argentinean (73%), Russian (82%), and Greek (76%) defaults that garnered high loss rates Loss rates varied widely in the largest sovereign defaults (Loss rate, % of par) 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Russia

Greece

Argentina

Greece

Ecuador

Ukraine

Jamaica

Jamaica

(Aug. 1998)

(Mar. 2012)

(Nov. 2001)

(Dec. 2012)

(Aug. 1999)

(Oct. 2015)

(Feb. 2013)

(Feb. 2010)

Note: Loss rate is defined as 100 minus the average trading price (in % of PAR), 30-day post default or around closing date of distressed exchange.

Source: Moody’s Investors Service

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Market re-access and credit standing remain impaired for several years after debt distress Market exclusion is highly correlated with the haircuts imposed on investors (Sovereign bond defaults, 1998-2018)

» On average, sovereign governments remained out of international capital markets for 5.8 years after default and 5.2 years after final default resolution

» Default resolution was relatively quick, taking slightly more than one year on average, meaning length of market exclusion generally not driven by inability to resolve default but by length of time it took for country to rebuild ability and reputation to service debt Source: Moody’s Investors Service, Sovereign Defaults Series: Market Re-Access and Credit Standing After Sovereign Default, October 2013

Russia* 80

Greece* Ecuador (2008)

70

Trading price-implied loss (%)

» Length of market exclusion is highly correlated with the loss imposed on investors during the debt restructuring

90 Cote d'Ivoire (2000) Argentina (2001)

Grenada 60 Ecuador (1999) 50 Cyprus 40 30

Pakistan

Dominica

Uruguay Argentina (2014)

Grenada Ukraine

Cote d'Ivoire (2011) Jamaica (2013) Jamaica (2010) 10 Paraguay Dominican Rep. 0 0 5 10 Time from default to re-access (years) 20

15

* Russia issued first international bond 12 years after the 1998 default, but could have reaccessed earlier. For Greece, return to full market access is noted as of Jan 2019, but there were some earlier placements.

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Argentina has a significant exposure to foreign currency debt amid limited domestic funding options A high and increasingly costly debt burden (%)

100

Gen. Gov. Local Currency Debt/GDP Gen. Gov. Foreign Currency & FC-Indexed Debt/GDP

The economy has significantly dollarized

70

Real Eff. Exchange Rate - RHS (% change) "Dollarization" Vulnerability Indicator Banking system assets/GDP (%)

30

90 60

20

50

10

40

0

30

-10

20

-20

10

-30

0

-40

80 70

60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Note: “Dollarization” Vulnerability Indicator = total foreign currency deposits in the domestic banking system / (official foreign exchange reserves + foreign assets of domestic banks). Source: Moody’s Investors Service

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Argentina’s economy will remain in a multi-year recession through 2020 Real GDP (index, t-5=100) Default

Argentina - 2019

Venezuela - 2017

Greece - 2012

Argentina - 2014

Ukraine - 2015

Argentina - 2001

140

120

100

80

60

40

20 t-5

t-4

t-3

t-2

t-1

t

t+1

t+2

t+3

t+4

t+5

Note: t refers to the time of sovereign default Source: Moody’s Investors Service

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Latin America remains a growth laggard compared with other regions 2010-13

2014-16

2017-19 6.9

7.0

Average GDP growth (%)

6.0 4.8 4.8

5.0

4.0 3.0

5.0

4.8 3.9

3.5 2.9 3.0

2.9

2.5 1.9 2.0 2.1

2.0

1.8

1.6 1.6

1.5

1.7 0.9

1.0 0.0

-0.3 -1.0 G-20 All

G-20 Advanced G-20 Advanced G-20 Emerging ex US

G20 EMs ex China

EMs EMEA

EMs LatAm

Note: G-20 EMs LatAm includes Argentina, Brazil and Mexico.

Source: Moody’s Investors Service

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The external environment will be challenging Six themes will shape global credit in 2020

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Elena Duggar Chair of Moody’s Macroeconomic Board Associate Managing Director Credit Strategy and Standards Elena.Duggar@moodys.com

moodys.com

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