Global Asia Institute
Global Interdependence Center – Global Conference Series 2009 Food and Water – Basic Challenges to International Stability Booth School of Business, Singapore Thursday, November 2009 “Living19Cities”: New Insights
for Water and Food Security for Rapidly Urbanizing Asia Seetharam Kallidaikurichi E. Director, Institute of Water Policy Visiting Professor, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy Director, Global Asia Institute All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without prior permission in writing from the Institute of Water Policy and Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.
Global Global Asia Asia Institute Institute
About the Institute of Water Policy To help leaders address “water challenges� in the region 2
Global Global Asia Asia Institute Institute
Vision / Mission of IWP Vision • Increase the profile of water security in national policy agenda in the region • Leading research centre in Asia for effective water policies • Centre of excellence for training leaders and professionals for water governance and management Mission • Build and strengthen a water policy research network in the region • Offer training, water policy advise, and consulting based on a dynamic and relevant policy research agenda
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Global Global Asia Asia Institute Institute
Research Focus •
The Medium Term Research Program focuses on areas like: – – – – – – – – – – – – –
Structural, macro and long term water policy issues Emerging global trends affecting water policy Climate change and adaptation measures in the water sector Formal policy instruments for water management Water resources management Water policy and technology Water, poverty alleviation and environmental conservation Legislative, regulatory and institutional frameworks Infrastructure finance Conflict and collaborative governance for water Politics and planning of water policy Sustainability of water resource systems Inter-linkages between water, energy, and food policies
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Global Global Asia Asia Institute Institute
Our Activities Conferences, Seminars • Singapore International Water Week, 2009 • “New” Thinking on Water Governance, 2007 • World Cities Summit 2010 IWP Research • Asian Water Indicators and Statistics • Water Governance Index • Dynamic Modeling of Water Policy Systems • Key Lessons Learnt and Good Practices in Water and Wastewater Management • Case Studies on Good Practices for Urban Water Management in Asia
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Global Global Asia Asia Institute Institute
1. What does the world economic development, in reference to GDP in the last 50 years, tell us?
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Global Global Asia Asia Institute Institute
GDP Per capita (Current US$) 1975-2005
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GDP and Urbanization
Data source: GDP per capita: UN-Data (Germany: Data prior to 1990 refer to the Federal Republic of Germany before unification for the following categories: agricultural production, balance of payments, trade, government finance, defense, monetary indicators, and tourism.) Percentage Urban: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unup
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Global Global Asia Asia Institute Institute
Urbanization and GDP increase go together industrial productivity
+
GDP
+
industry land requirements
+
+
+ industry
-
+
+
urban employment opportunities
rural-urban migration -
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Global Global Asia Asia Institute Institute
Urbanization Trends in Asian Countries
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Global Global Asia Asia Institute Institute
2. What else is needed to support GDP growth (and urbanization)? How has the world performed in the last 25 years with Governance (measured by TI) and Human Development measured by HDI?
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Global Global Asia Asia Institute Institute
Urbanization and GDP depend on Human Development, Good Governance
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Global Asia Institute
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Global Global Asia Asia Institute Institute
3. What are the key messages – we will have more cities without choice, in the future. Depending on what policies we embrace, we will know whether we will have “choked cities” or “living cities”.
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The Emergence and Growth of Megacities Population (million)
Tokyo 26.4 Bombay 26.1 Lagos 23.2 Dhaka 21.1 Sao Paulo 20.4 Karachi 19.2 Mexico City 19.2 New York 17.4 Jakarta 17.4 Calcutta 17.3 Delhi 16.8 Metro Manila 14.8 Shanghai 14.6 Los Angeles 14.1 Buenos Aires 14.1 Cairo 13.8 Istanbul 12.5 Beijing 12.3 Rio de Janeiro 11.9 Osaka 11.0 Tianjin 10.7 Hyderabad 10.5 Bangkok 10.1
Tokyo 19.8 Mexico City 18.1 Bombay 18.1 Sao Paulo 17.8 New York 16.6 Lagos 13.4 Los Angeles 13.1 Calcutta 12.9 Shanghai 12.9 Buenos Aires 12.6 Dhaka 12.3 Karachi 11.8 Delhi 11.7 Jakarta 11.0 Osaka 11.0 Metro Manila 10.9 Beijing 10.8 Rio de Janeiro 10.6 Cairo 10.6
1950
1975 New York 12.3
Source: United Nations 2004
2000
2015 Tokyo 19.8 New York 15.9 Shanghai 11.4 Mexico City 11.2 Sao Paulo 10.0
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Pace of Urbanization is Unprecedented Massive, unprecedented urbanization in Asia—especially the many small urban centers of less than 500,000 people—will present new types of water- and wastewater-related challenges that all countries will have to face.
Source: AWDO 2007, ADB
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Virtuous cycle – Living City
Vicious cycle – Choking city
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4. What is the framework for living cities? Living CITIES
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Global Global Asia Asia Institute Institute industrial productivity
+
GDP
urban land area (km2)
+ + industry land requirements
+
+ available land for housing
+
+
industry -
-
+
housing price +
+
urban employment opportunities
rural-urban migration
-
rural--urban migration
-
+
urban population
pollution
-
crowding quality of life
-
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C
Competitiveness is crucial for cities to be the engine of growth for the nation Commitment at local political administration is crucial to maintain competitiveness
Competitiveness IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook 2008
Source: Seetharam, MAPES, 2006
The Global Competitiveness Report 20082009 © 2008 World Economic Forum
The Best Countries for Business 2009: Forbes Magazine
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Global Global Asia Asia Institute Institute
Competitiveness 2009 Index of Economic Freedom: The Heritage Foundation, Wall Street Journal
Source: Seetharam, MAPES, 2006
Transparency International: 2008 Corruption Perceptions Index
Opacity Index: Milken Institute / Kurtzman Group (2008)
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I
Infrastructure of the cities must be efficient and affordable to achieve competitiveness Infrastructure should be improved and operated on commercial sustainability
Infrastructure The 2008 Human Development Index: UNDP
Source: Seetharam, MAPES, 2006
2009 Quality of Life Survey (City Infrastructure) : Mercer HR consulting
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Global Global Asia Asia Institute Institute
T
Transport and communications should • provide mobility, • be safe and • be reliable for the cities to function effectively
Transport Doing Business Report 2009, World Bank
Source: Seetharam, MAPES, 2006
Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Business Environment Ranking 2008
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Information is the key factor for good governance
I
Information
Transparency, low transaction costs through e government is a requirement
E-readiness rankings 2008: EIU & IBM Institute for Business Value
Source: Seetharam, MAPES, 2006
Global Information Technology Report 2008– 2009: World Economic Forum-Insead
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E
Environment i.e. when the quality of life, open space, and air quality are good, cities will be sustainable Cities have life…
Environment
2009 Quality of Life Survey: Mercer HR consulting
Innovation Output Study 2008
Source: Seetharam, MAPES, 2006
Personal Safety Index, Mercer HR (2008)
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S Shelter
Shelter i.e. availability and affordability of housing space through appropriate land use and housing policy and planning is a salient feature of a city with a vision
Cost of Living Index 2008: Mercer HR consulting
Source: Seetharam, MAPES, 2006
The 2008 Global Cities Index: A.T Kearney, Chicago Council of Global Affairs, FP
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Living Cities become candidates for living in cities through leaders who ensure √ better “infrastructure” √ good “governance” Source: Seetharam, MAPES, 2006
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Global Global Asia Asia Institute Institute
5. What are the crucial enabling factors for living cities: Effective Water and Sanitation services and food security. How have the Asian cities performed with respect to Water, sanitation and food security? What are the linkages between good governance and water and sanitation?
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Global Global Asia Asia Institute Institute
Water utilities lose nearly half the water they produce Phnom Penh,
Jakarta,
Vientiane,
Johor,
Metro Cebu,
Cambodia
Indonesia
Lao PDR
Malaysia
Philippines
2007
2001
2005
2005
2005
Water Supply Coverage (%)
90
51
56
100
Water Availability (hours)
24
22
24
Non-Revenue Water (%)
6
51
Staff Per 1,000 Connections
4
0.32
Indicator
Operating Ratio #
Bangkok,
Ho Chi Minh,
Thailand
Vietnam
2007
2003
2005
55
100
89
72.9
24
20
24
24
24
28
37
27
4 **
34
43
5.3
8
2.1
8
2.6 @
3.1
5.3
0.8
0.93
0.71
0.76
0.85
0.68
0.97
# Annual Operation and Maintenance cost/ Annual Revenue
@ "Staff per 1,000 accounts" for Singapore
** "Unaccounted for Water" for Singapore
Sources: ADB and the utilities
Singapore
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Water utilities deliver on average 4 hours per day Indicator
Ahmedabad
Amritsar
Bangalore
Bhopal
Chandigarh
Chennai
Coimbatore
Indore
Water Supply Coverage (%)
74.5
75.7
92.9
83.4
100
89.3
76.1
77.3
2
11
4.5
1.5
12
5
3
0.75
Unaccounted for Water (%)
na
57
45
na
39
17
41
na
Staff Per 1,000 Connections
2.2
4.8
5.2
20.7
8.6
13.3
4
18.7
1.43
1.36
0.8
2.82
1.36
0.44
0.82
5.33
Water Availability (hours)
Operating Ratio #
# Annual Operation and Maintenance cost/ Annual Revenue "na" denotes "not available" Source: Asian Development Bank, 2007 Benchmarking and Data Book of Water Utilities in India
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Global Global Asia Asia Institute Institute
Immense challenges to deliver Water in Asia
Note: "na” - "not applicable”; . Transparency International’s CPI score indicates the degree of public sector corruption as perceived by business people and country analysts. It ranges between 0 (highly corrupt) and 10 (highly clean) Source: Asia Water Watch 2015, Asian Development Bank, UNDP, UNESCAP, WHO
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Food Price Rise •
Over the past 5 years, food prices have been rising, stoking fears of a "food crisis.“ – The World Bank's food price index climbed 57% in the first quarter of 2008 alone.
•
About one billion people in Asia spend at least 60% of their income on food. Majority of these are urban dwellers.
FAO food price indices (Till April 2008)
Source: http://www.fao.org/docrep/010/ai465e/ai465e06.htm
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6. What are the out-of-the-box solutions? Water and Sanitation; innovation and technology (learn from other sectors: energy, telecom, food, etc.)
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Water, Sanitation, Food and Housing: Key to Human Development
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Global Global Asia Asia Institute Institute
“Even with the most comprehensive plans and visions of a
sustainable future, nothing can be accomplished without strong political will, good governance, effective implementation and a motivated workforce.”
Khoo Teng Chye (Chief Executive, PUB)
in Asit K Biswas, Cecilia Tortajada, and Rafael Izquierdo (Eds.), Water Management in 2020 and Beyond, Berlin: Springer, 2009, p.249
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Global Global Asia Asia Institute Institute industrial productivity
+
GDP
urban land area (km2)
+ + industry land requirements
+
+ available land for housing
+
+
industry +
-
+
housing price +
+
urban employment opportunities
rural-urban migration
-
rural--urban migration
-
+
urban population
pollution
budget allocated for improving public infrastructure
-
+ public services
+
crowding quality of life
-
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Water, Precious Water 90%
95%
70%
Blood 82%
95%
Even a 2% drop in the body can trigger Dehydration 38
Global Global Asia Asia Institute Institute
Water is Food, Need, and Good •
Drinking water is Food (1–2 liters per capita per day)
•
Water for essential use is a Need (10–20 lpcd; own source, rain water harvesting)
•
Water for other uses is a Good (24hour supply; full cost recovery, water conservation)
“It is impossible to continue with the traditional idea of providing required drinking water to every one free of cost or at highly subsidized rates.”
Deliver drinking water immediately to all
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Thinking “out-of-the-box” on Water & Sanitation Learn from the telecom and energy sectors •
• • • • • • •
APANA is a new framework to serve a potential $1 Trillion market, for a market size of $100 million persons per year, until 2015. Technology driven, and Scalable Solutions Replace the 200-year old technology for toilets Give new solutions to approx 1 billion current customers Innovation for sanitation like “handphone” for “telecommunication Car, fashion designers Vacuum cleaner solution for sanitation Building design innovation (self-contained apartments, communities)
APANA 1012
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Water, Energy, and Food policies cannot be delinked
Water, Energy, and Food policies cannot be made without a deeper understanding of the central role of water with respect to everyday needs. Approaching any of the policies in isolation will result in failed policies in a globalized world.
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Nexus between Water and Food • • • • •
Agriculture consumes 85 percent of fresh water withdrawals in developing countries Growing population in cities and growing affluence has increased the demand for diets containing more animal protein Roughly 1,000-2,000 litres of water is required to produce a KG of wheat, and 10,000-13,000 litres of water to produce a KG of beef The present average food ingest of 2,800 kcal/person/day may require roughly 1,000 m3 per year water to be produced. Thus, with a world population of 6 billion, water needed to produce the necessary food is 6,000 km3 (excluding any conveyance losses associated with irrigation systems).
Source: FAO, World Development Report 2008
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7. Who can ensure that we embrace “living cities” framework – Passionate leadership is essential
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New Paradigm for Living Cities “Proper Knowledge + Positive Action = Good Leadership”
“People”
“Passion”
•
Executive education for nurturing leaders for the future
•
Proactive role of media in shaping public policy on water
•
Simple indicators for a “pulse check” on water governance
Procedures
Policy “Nations that prioritized urban water policies have successfully improved quality of life in terms of HDI.”
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8. What is the big picture on water management – new look at the water cycle; dynamic modeling of public policy
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Understanding the water cycle: “no beginning” – “no end”
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9. What is the vision of good water governance – Man is part of Nature; Nurture Nature.
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Nurture Nature Space
Satellite, internet, mobile phone, and other communication technology are essential in daily life.
Air
Modern industry, medicine, and households use a variety of gases. Air travel is the hallmark of 21st century.
Fire
Solar energy, coal and petroleum products sustain the modern economy.
Water
75% of creation comprises water. Water is home to many beings. Water recycles itself eternally.
Earth
Earth provides all organic and inorganic nutrients (minerals) and materials.
Nature can Give; Nature can Destroy!
radiation hazards harmful gases, infective virus volcanic eruption extreme temperatures
floods typhoons
landslide, earthquakes 48
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Conclusion “Governance is more about governing our own behavior in Nature.�
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About the Global Asia Institute Transcending boundaries of geography and knowledge
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Introduction •
•
•
It will address deep issues crucial to the future of Asia, and at a level of depth and breadth not readily achievable if studied through traditional academic disciplines or policy institutes. GAI will provide an innovative new platform to bring together existing expertise from NUS, as well as other universities within and outside Asia, particularly scholars with expertise in China and India, to work together across disciplines to address the critical issues within Asia. It will be integrative as well as holistic, combining the hard-side (engineering solutions, quantitative methodologies and systematic scientific analysis), with the soft-side (human and social issues) of the knowledge domains.
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Vision and Mission Vision • Integrative research to solve challenges of the Asian century Mission • Integrative and multi-disciplinary, cluster of 2-3 PIs • High impact research • India / china focus • Wikipedia approach / regular workshop • Iterative and cumulative • Social sciences first, followed by wet-bench
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Global Asia Institute
For further enquiries, please contact: Director, Institute of Water Policy, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy Director, Global Asia Institute National University of Singapore, 469C Bukit Timah Road, Singapore 259772 Telephone: (65) 6516 2083, Fax: (65) 6468 4186 Email: iwplkyspp@nus.edu.sg gaidir@nus.edu.sg Š All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without prior permission in writing from the Institute of Water Policy, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.