East Asia Economic Outlook
Sam Ruda Chief Commercial Officer January 2013
East Asia Economies and the Port of Portland
China economy dominates or strongly influences a large share of the Port’s maritime activity:
Containerized cargo growth
Fertilizer exports
Soda ash exports
Grain exports
Automobile sector may initially be an export opportunity for U.S.
Ford plans to export to China beginning in 2014
Already exporting to S. Korea (via Portland)
Chinese imports of raw materials (iron ore, coal) drives vessel charter market (currently at historic lows)
U.S. West Coast Containerized Imports by Origin From Asia
Source: Port Import Export Reporting Service
1990 – Container Imports from China
Hong Kong
•
In 1990, there were 1.3 million TEUs (7.8 million MTs) of containerized cargo exported from China to the United States
•
Primary ports were Hong Kong, Keelung and Kaohsiung
•
Roughly half of the cargo coming to the U.S. was sourced in Taiwan
•
Mainland China cargo transshipped to Hong Kong, or Busan for delivery to U.S.A.
•
Five of the top 20 busiest container ports in the world were in the U.S.
Keelung Kaohsiung
Source: Port Import Export Reporting Service
2010 – Container Imports from China •
In 2010, there were 8.5 million TEUs (55 million MTs) of containerized cargo imported from China
•
Now, there are nearly a dozen ‘hub’ ports in China exporting containers to the U.S.
•
Over $200 billion in containerized imports
Dalian Tianjin
Qingdao
Shanghai Ningbo
Xiamen Guangzhou Hong Shenzhen Kong
Keelung Kaohsiung
Source: World Shipping Council
TEU Volume in Millions
Source: Journal of Commerce
TEU Volume in Millions
Source: Journal of Commerce
Containerized Exports to Asia from U.S. West Coast The
East Asian Economies lead in purchasing from the U.S.
But
some of what the U.S. exports can be sourced elsewhere
The
fastest growing trade in the world is within Asia
2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 China
Japan
S. Korea
Taiwan
Indonesia Vietnam
Thailand Singapore Philippines Malaysia
U.S. Agricultural Export Recipients by Country China is the largest recipient of U.S. Agricultural products by dollar value surpassing Mexico and Canada
China $17.5 billion Canada $16.9 billion Mexico $14.6 billion
$12 $10.9
Japan $11.8 billion
$8.4
$6.7 $5
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics Global Agricultural Trade System
Agricultural Exports to China by Region ďƒ˜By
total volume, bulk and container, primary gateways from the U.S. are the gulf and the Pacific Northwest
37%
4% 15%
44% Source: PIERS Data
Columbia River Grain Exports •
Addition of new elevator in the river system will drive more cargo to the PNW Columbia River Elevator Grain Exports In Millions of Metric Tons
Source: Merchants Exchange
Auto Imports from Asia: Imports High
as a % of total U.S. Sales is declining
Yen is one factor…..but there are other strategic drivers
Rail Track Leads to Portland