East Asia Economic Outlook

East Asia Economic Outlook

Sam Ruda Chief Commercial Officer January 2013

East Asia Economies and the Port of Portland 

China economy dominates or strongly influences a large share of the Port’s maritime activity:

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

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Containerized cargo growth

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Fertilizer exports



Soda ash exports

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Grain exports

Automobile sector may initially be an export opportunity for U.S. 

Ford plans to export to China beginning in 2014



Already exporting to S. Korea (via Portland)

Chinese imports of raw materials (iron ore, coal) drives vessel charter market (currently at historic lows)

U.S. West Coast Containerized Imports by Origin From Asia

Source: Port Import Export Reporting Service

1990 – Container Imports from China

Hong Kong

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In 1990, there were 1.3 million TEUs (7.8 million MTs) of containerized cargo exported from China to the United States

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Primary ports were Hong Kong, Keelung and Kaohsiung

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Roughly half of the cargo coming to the U.S. was sourced in Taiwan

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Mainland China cargo transshipped to Hong Kong, or Busan for delivery to U.S.A.

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Five of the top 20 busiest container ports in the world were in the U.S.

Keelung Kaohsiung

Source: Port Import Export Reporting Service

2010 – Container Imports from China •

In 2010, there were 8.5 million TEUs (55 million MTs) of containerized cargo imported from China

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Now, there are nearly a dozen ‘hub’ ports in China exporting containers to the U.S.

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Over $200 billion in containerized imports

Dalian Tianjin

Qingdao

Shanghai Ningbo

Xiamen Guangzhou Hong Shenzhen Kong

Keelung Kaohsiung

Source: World Shipping Council

TEU Volume in Millions

Source: Journal of Commerce

TEU Volume in Millions

Source: Journal of Commerce

Containerized Exports to Asia from U.S. West Coast  The

East Asian Economies lead in purchasing from the U.S.

 But

some of what the U.S. exports can be sourced elsewhere

 The

fastest growing trade in the world is within Asia

2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 China

Japan

S. Korea

Taiwan

Indonesia Vietnam

Thailand Singapore Philippines Malaysia

U.S. Agricultural Export Recipients by Country China is the largest recipient of U.S. Agricultural products by dollar value surpassing Mexico and Canada

China $17.5 billion Canada $16.9 billion Mexico $14.6 billion

$12 $10.9

Japan $11.8 billion

$8.4

$6.7 $5

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics Global Agricultural Trade System

Agricultural Exports to China by Region ďƒ˜By

total volume, bulk and container, primary gateways from the U.S. are the gulf and the Pacific Northwest

37%

4% 15%

44% Source: PIERS Data

Columbia River Grain Exports •

Addition of new elevator in the river system will drive more cargo to the PNW Columbia River Elevator Grain Exports In Millions of Metric Tons

Source: Merchants Exchange

Auto Imports from Asia: Imports High

as a % of total U.S. Sales is declining

Yen is one factor…..but there are other strategic drivers

Rail Track Leads to Portland