Poland and the Eurozone: currency, trade and capital markets Prof. Cezary W贸jcik
Institute of Economics of PAN and the Global Interdependence Centre in cooperation with the NBP Warsaw, 24 May 2012
What I am not going to talk about?
Exit Rules – Modelling framework • Acceptability condition for a ‘credible threat’.
What I am going to talk about?
1.Economist’s none-economic view on the future of the euro area 2.What should Poland do about it?
What can we do?
1. There is nothing that can solve the problem in the short-run
2. The solution is largely outside economics
3. The future of euro area depends on one thing - our willingness to stay together
Togetherness?
Adaptive – Not Technical
Using and Managing the Crisis Limit of tolerance
Productive Zone of Disequilibrium Threshold of tolerance
Adaptive Work Work avoidance I. Acute Phase
II. Adaptive Phase
Source: Heifetz and Laurie (1998). 15
What should Poland do? • Support • Prepare for the worst case scenario • Wait • Ask: is this a one-off event or it can repeat?
Thank you