Baseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table* 1Q'14f 2Q'14f 3Q'14f 4Q'14f
1Q'15f 2Q'15f 3Q'15f 4Q'15f
2013a
2014f
2015f
2016f
Output & Prices Real GDP (Chained 2009 Billions $ ) Percent Change Annualized CPI (1982-84 = 100 ) Percent Change Annualized
16019 2.2 235.1 1.7
16146 3.2 236.3 2.0
16258 2.8 237.5 2.1
16370 2.8 238.7 2.0
16472 2.5 239.9 2.1
16575 2.5 241.2 2.1
16679 2.5 242.4 2.1
16787 2.6 243.7 2.2
15759 1.9 233.0 1.5
16198 2.8 236.9 1.7
16628 2.7 241.8 2.1
17047 2.5 247.1 2.2
Labor Markets Payroll Jobs (Millions ) Percent Change Annualized Unemployment Rate (Percent )
137.8 1.5 6.6
138.4 1.9 6.5
139.0 1.8 6.3
139.6 1.6 6.2
140.1 1.3 6.1
140.5 1.3 6.0
141.0 1.3 5.8
141.5 1.4 5.7
136.4 1.7 7.4
138.7 1.7 6.4
140.8 1.5 5.9
142.6 1.3 5.4
0.07 2.75
0.15 2.85
0.15 3.04
0.15 3.24
0.15 3.39
0.15 3.46
0.15 3.53
0.42 3.60
0.11 2.35
0.13 2.97
0.22 3.50
1.09 3.90
Interest Rates (Percent) Federal Funds Treasury Note, 10-year a = actual
f = forecast
p = preliminary
* Please see the Expanded Table for more forecast series.
Baseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Expanded Table 1Q'14f
2Q'14f
3Q'14f
4Q'14f
1Q'15f
2Q'15f
3Q'15f
4Q'15f
2013a
2014f
2015f
2016f
Output Nominal GDP (Billions $ ) Percent Change Annualized
17244 3.9
17460 5.1
17661 4.7
17866 4.7
18064 4.5
18268 4.6
18477 4.7
18691 4.7
16797 3.4
17558 4.5
18375 4.7
19207 4.5
Real GDP (Chained 2009 Billions $ ) Percent Change Annualized Pers. Consumption Expenditures Percent Change Annualized Nonresidential Fixed Investment Percent Change Annualized Residential Investment Percent Change Annualized Change in Private Inventories Net Exports Government Expenditures Percent Change Annualized
16019 2.2 10880 2.5 2050 4.0 497 8.0 80 -385 2895 4.0
16146 3.2 10957 2.9 2073 4.6 512 12.0 68 -376 2910 2.1
16258 2.8 11022 2.4 2094 4.2 525 10.9 56 -368 2926 2.2
16370 2.8 11086 2.3 2113 3.6 540 12.0 49 -362 2942 2.2
16472 2.5 11149 2.3 2129 3.0 550 7.5 37 -352 2957 2.0
16575 2.5 11212 2.3 2142 2.5 554 3.0 34 -341 2971 2.0
16679 2.5 11275 2.3 2156 2.6 561 5.3 31 -332 2986 2.0
16787 2.6 11340 2.3 2171 2.9 571 7.0 29 -325 3000 2.0
15759 1.9 10723 2.0 1986 2.8 486 12.1 83 -412 2896 -2.3
16198 2.8 10986 2.5 2083 4.9 519 6.6 63 -373 2918 0.8
16628 2.7 11244 2.3 2149 3.2 559 7.8 33 -337 2978 2.1
17047 2.5 11501 2.3 2206 2.6 584 4.4 29 -311 3036 1.9
Industrial Prod. Index (2007 = 100 ) Percent Change Annualized Capacity Utilization (Percent )
101.6 2.7 78.8
102.5 3.5 79.0
103.5 3.9 79.3
104.3 3.4 79.4
105.1 3.0 79.5
106.0 3.3 79.7
106.8 3.2 79.9
107.7 3.4 80.1
99.5 2.6 78.1
103.0 3.4 79.1
106.4 3.3 79.8
109.7 3.1 80.6
Prices CPI (1982-84 = 100 ) Percent Change Annualized Core CPI Index (1982-84 = 100) Percent Change Annualized PCE Price Index (2009 = 100 ) Percent Change Annualized Core PCE Price Index (2009 = 100 ) Percent Change Annualized GDP Price Index (2009 = 100 ) Percent Change Annualized Crude Oil, WTI ($/Barrel )
235.1 1.7 236.3 1.8 108.1 1.5 106.8 1.6 107.7 1.7 96.0
236.3 2.0 237.4 1.9 108.5 1.7 107.3 1.7 108.2 1.9 98.5
237.5 2.1 238.6 2.0 109.0 1.8 107.8 1.8 108.7 1.9 100.0
238.7 2.0 239.8 2.0 109.5 1.8 108.3 1.8 109.2 1.9 101.0
239.9 2.1 241.0 2.1 110.0 1.9 108.8 1.9 109.7 2.0 102.0
241.2 2.1 242.3 2.1 110.5 1.9 109.3 1.9 110.3 2.1 103.0
242.4 2.1 243.6 2.1 111.0 1.9 109.8 1.9 110.9 2.1 103.0
243.7 2.2 244.9 2.2 111.6 1.9 110.3 1.9 111.5 2.1 103.0
233.0 1.5 233.8 1.8 107.2 1.1 105.9 1.2 106.6 1.5 97.9
236.9 1.7 238.0 1.8 108.8 1.5 107.5 1.5 108.4 1.7 98.9
241.8 2.1 242.9 2.1 110.8 1.9 109.5 1.9 110.6 2.0 102.8
247.1 2.2 248.3 2.2 113.0 2.0 111.7 2.0 112.8 2.0 106.1
Labor M arkets Payroll Jobs (Millions ) Percent Change Annualized Unemployment Rate (Percent ) Average Weekly Hours, Prod. Works.
137.8 1.5 6.6 33.5
138.4 1.9 6.5 33.6
139.0 1.8 6.3 33.6
139.6 1.6 6.2 33.6
140.1 1.3 6.1 33.7
140.5 1.3 6.0 33.7
141.0 1.3 5.8 33.7
141.5 1.4 5.7 33.7
136.4 1.7 7.4 33.7
138.7 1.7 6.4 33.6
140.8 1.5 5.9 33.7
142.6 1.3 5.4 33.8
Personal Income Average Hourly Earnings ($ ) Percent Change Annualized Real Disp. Income (2009 Billions $ ) Percent Change Annualized
20.42 2.4 11773 1.7
20.53 2.2 11855 2.8
20.64 2.2 11928 2.5
20.76 2.4 12001 2.5
20.89 2.5 12081 2.7
21.03 2.5 12165 2.8
21.16 2.5 12247 2.7
21.29 2.6 12329 2.7
20.14 2.0 11637 0.7
20.59 2.3 11889 2.2
21.09 2.4 12205 2.7
21.64 2.6 12521 2.6
Housing Housing Starts (Ths., Ann. Rate ) Ext. Home Sales (Ths., Ann Rate ) New SF Home Sales (Ths., Ann Rate ) Case/Shiller HPI (Jan. 2000 = 100 ) Percent Change Year Ago
1018 5078 455 153.0 8.6
1061 5225 468 154.5 7.3
1096 5330 480 156.0 5.7
1107 5401 490 157.4 3.8
1114 5465 494 158.7 3.7
1119 5482 494 160.1 3.6
1129 5489 495 161.4 3.5
1141 5522 500 162.9 3.5
931 5073 430 146.0 10.6
1070 5259 473 155.2 6.3
1126 5489 496 160.8 3.6
1155 5668 512 166.6 3.6
Consumer Household Economic Stress Index Auto Sales (Millions ) Consumer Credit (Billions $ ) Percent Change Annualized
-0.6 15.5 3148 5.5
1.0 16.0 3194 6.0
2.3 16.1 3247 6.8
4.3 16.2 3299 6.5
4.4 16.2 3352 6.6
4.5 16.3 3398 5.6
4.5 16.4 3435 4.4
4.3 16.4 3473 4.4
-1.8 15.5 3036 6.2
1.7 15.9 3222 6.1
4.4 16.3 3415 6.0
4.0 16.4 3563 4.4
Interest Rates (Percent) Prime Rate Federal Funds 3-Month Treasury Bill 10-Year Treasury Note 30-Year Fixed Mortgage
3.25 0.07 0.04 2.75 4.36
3.25 0.15 0.09 2.85 4.45
3.25 0.15 0.16 3.04 4.71
3.25 0.15 0.22 3.24 4.97
3.25 0.15 0.28 3.39 5.19
3.25 0.15 0.29 3.46 5.30
3.25 0.15 0.37 3.53 5.40
3.42 0.42 0.55 3.60 5.46
3.25 0.11 0.06 2.35 3.98
3.25 0.13 0.13 2.97 4.62
3.29 0.22 0.37 3.50 5.34
4.09 1.09 1.23 3.90 5.75
a = actual
f = forecast
p = preliminary