McVEAN Trading & Investments, LLC
Michael Drury Chief Economist McVean Trading and Investments, LLC
Vice-Chairman and Program Chair The Global Interdependence Center
ROCKY MOUNTAIN SUMMIT Jackson Hole, WY July 12, 2013 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
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GLOBAL GDP $70 TRILLION
EUROPE $19T
NAFTA $18T
Brazil+Russia+ Argentina+Opec $9T
China $7.5T
Japan+South Korea +Taiwan $7.5T
Other $10T
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
1
CHINA, EUROZONE AND US PMI 65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30 1/1/2006
1/1/2007
1/1/2008
1/1/2009 CHINA
1/1/2010 Eurozone
1/1/2011 US
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
1/1/2012
1/1/2013
June 2013 2
PER CAPITA GDP 2010 DOLLARS
$24,000
$21,000
$18,000
$15,000
$12,000
$9,000
$6,000
$3,000
$0 Jan-69
Jan-73
Jan-77
Jan-81
Jan-85
SOUTH KOREA
Jan-89 TAIWAN
Jan-93
Jan-97
Jan-01
Jan-05
Jan-09
CHINA (STARTS 2002)
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
3
CHINESE RR FREIGHT VS ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION 3 MONTH AVERAGE %CH FROM YEAR AGO
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0% Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05 RAIL
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
May 2013 4
CHINESE REAL GDP
CURRENT QTR %CH FROM YEAR AGO 13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6 Mar-00
Mar-01
Mar-02
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Q1 2013 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
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CHINA PORK VS US CORN PRICE CHART 900
32
800 27 700
600
22
500
17
400
300 12 200
100 Jan-00
7 Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06 US CORN
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
CHINA PORK
June-12 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
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