Models and Methodology

Models and Methodology ● How do we estimate the number of people with Long Covid? ○

Number of Surviving COVID-19 Cases x Chance of Long Covid from Infection

● What is the chance of developing Long Covid post-infection? ○

Emerging consensus = 30% risk of Long Covid, 10% risk of Disabling Long Covid

● How many people have had COVID-19? ○

WE DON’T KNOW

Models and Methodology ●

Our white paper uses two models to estimate Long Covid prevalence in the United States ○

Reported Case Model ■ ■

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Seroprevalence Model ■ ■

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Based on CDC-reported COVID case numbers Low estimate

Based on CDC Community Seroprevalence Survey High estimate

Case counts up to January 31, 2022 for both models Adjusted risk calculation for breakthrough cases

Reported Case Model

Estimated LC Cases: 22 million Estimated DLC Cases: 7.3 million

Percent with LC: 6.9% Percent with DLC : 2.3%

Seroprevalence Model

Estimated LC Cases: 43 million Estimated DLC Cases: 14.3 million

Percent with LC: 13.4% Percent with DLC : 4.4%

Financial Impact ● Personal financial impact of Long Covid ○ ○ ○

Survey conducted by the COVID-19 Long Hauler Advocacy Project (C-19 LAP) Impact of Long Covid on personal healthcare costs and lost income Survey focused on individuals unable to return to work due to disability from Long Covid

● These cost estimates only explore the financial burden on the 10% of COVID-19 survivors with Disabling Long Covid (DLC) ○

The full and long-term costs of Long Covid on individuals, families, and communities will be much higher

Reported Case Model – Financial Impact

Estimated Cost: $386 billion

Seroprevalence Model – Financial Impact

Estimated Cost: $511 billion