TUNISIA after the Arab Spring
Prof. Mohamed DAOUD Visiting Scholar Applied Linguistics, ISLT, PSU mbhdaoud@gmail.com GIC, Portland, OR 01/15/2012
LOCATION
BACKGROUND
Tunisian paradox: Homogeneous, educated population; big middle class; pro-West. BUT NO DEMOCRACY 56 years of dictatorship: One-party rule (Bourguiba 1956 – 1987, Ben Ali ‘Zinochet’ 1987 – 2011)
Blatant corruption High unemployment (college graduates) REVOLUTION (17 Dec. 2010 – 14 Jan. 2011) Motto: JOBS***LIBERTY***DIGNITY
THE DAY AFTER SOCIAL UNREST BUT COUNTRY FUNCTIONING NATIONAL ELECTIONS 10/23/2011
NCA to draft new constitution Interim coalition government: Nahdha (Islamist, Turkish model) 2 secular, center-left parties
NATIONAL MOOD NOW
Very high expectations Governance less than satisfactory (slow job growth and regional SED, fighting corruption, recovering stolen assets, establishing security)
Slow political reforms (NCA: drafting new constitution + legislating, seeking consensus)
Inept political opposition (divided) Civil society (very active, often partisan) Industrial action Poor communication Counter revolution (entrenched bureaucracy) => DEMOCRACY 101
OUTLOOK POLITICAL
Constitution (secular republic, separation of powers, gender equality/parity), approval process nearing completion, no referendum expected
Election law, media code and transitional justice framework (ratification done or pending) Judicial reform (difficult but ongoing) National elections (Summer 2013)
OUTLOOK
ECONOMIC Improved economic performance & growth rate, GDP: 3.4% (-1.9% in 2011 ) Tighter banking regulations FDI (+ 29%, cf. BCT) Moody’s investment grade maintained at Baa3 (reduced from Baa2, pre-2011) Debt/GDP ratio: 46%, no default. (Sp: 68.5%) Lower unemployment 17% (18.9% in 2011)
THREATS
MANAGEABLE Political consensus Economic performance job creation European recession Internal and regional security
OPPORTUNITIES
International support (Showcasing Tunisia) Regional platform (trade, finance) Investment incentives Skilled workforce (ICTs, engineering, business, technical, services, languages)
Added-value projects Diversified economy (GDP composition by sector: agriculture: 10.6%, industry: 34.6%, services: 54.8% (2010 est.)