TUNISIA after the Arab Spring

TUNISIA after the Arab Spring

Prof. Mohamed DAOUD Visiting Scholar Applied Linguistics, ISLT, PSU mbhdaoud@gmail.com GIC, Portland, OR 01/15/2012

LOCATION

BACKGROUND 

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Tunisian paradox: Homogeneous, educated population; big middle class; pro-West.

BUT NO DEMOCRACY 56 years of dictatorship: One-party rule (Bourguiba 1956 – 1987, Ben Ali ‘Zinochet’ 1987 – 2011)

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Blatant corruption High unemployment (college graduates) REVOLUTION (17 Dec. 2010 – 14 Jan. 2011) Motto: JOBS***LIBERTY***DIGNITY

THE DAY AFTER SOCIAL UNREST BUT COUNTRY FUNCTIONING NATIONAL ELECTIONS 10/23/2011  

NCA to draft new constitution Interim coalition government: Nahdha (Islamist, Turkish model) 2 secular, center-left parties

NATIONAL MOOD NOW  

Very high expectations Governance less than satisfactory (slow job growth and regional SED, fighting corruption, recovering stolen assets, establishing security)

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Slow political reforms (NCA: drafting new constitution + legislating, seeking consensus)

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Inept political opposition (divided) Civil society (very active, often partisan) Industrial action Poor communication Counter revolution (entrenched bureaucracy) => DEMOCRACY 101

OUTLOOK POLITICAL 

Constitution (secular republic, separation of powers, gender equality/parity), approval process nearing completion, no referendum expected

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Election law, media code and transitional justice framework (ratification done or pending) Judicial reform (difficult but ongoing) National elections (Summer 2013)

OUTLOOK 

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ECONOMIC Improved economic performance & growth rate, GDP: 3.4% (-1.9% in 2011 ) Tighter banking regulations FDI (+ 29%, cf. BCT) Moody’s investment grade maintained at Baa3 (reduced from Baa2, pre-2011) Debt/GDP ratio: 46%, no default. (Sp: 68.5%) Lower unemployment 17% (18.9% in 2011)

THREATS  

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MANAGEABLE Political consensus Economic performance job creation European recession Internal and regional security

OPPORTUNITIES  

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International support (Showcasing Tunisia) Regional platform (trade, finance) Investment incentives Skilled workforce (ICTs, engineering, business, technical, services, languages)

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Added-value projects Diversified economy (GDP composition by sector: agriculture: 10.6%, industry: 34.6%, services: 54.8% (2010 est.)