Global Interdependence Center Abu Dhabi March 26, 2013
David Kotok Chairman and Chief Investment Officer (800) 257-7013 ext. 320 David.Kotok@Cumber.com Twitter: @CumberlandADV
Florida Office One Sarasota Tower 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Sarasota, FL 34236
New Jersey Office 614 E. Landis Avenue Vineland, NJ 08360
(800) 257-7013 ŠCopyright 2013 Cumberland AdvisorsŽ. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
Factors Adding to Reserves Factors Adding to Reserves on Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet (Assets) Plus Off-Balance TSLF from 6/27/07 to 3/13/13 $3,300 $3,150 $3,000 $2,850 $2,700 $2,550 $2,400
Mortgage Backed Securities
$2,250 $1,950
$1,500 $1,350
$1,200 $1,050
PDCF-3/16/08 TSLF-3/11/08
$1,650
Series Break
$1,800
TAF-12/12/07 Series Break "TDWP - 8/17/07"
$ Bn
$2,100
US Treasuries
$900 $750 $600 $450 6-Feb-13 26-Dec-12 14-Nov-12 3-Oct-12 22-Aug-12 11-Jul-12 30-May-12 18-Apr-12 7-Mar-12 25-Jan-12 14-Dec-11 2-Nov-11 21-Sep-11 10-Aug-11 29-Jun-11 18-May-11 6-Apr-11 23-Feb-11 12-Jan-11 1-Dec-10 20-Oct-10 8-Sep-10 28-Jul-10 16-Jun-10 5-May-10 24-Mar-10 10-Feb-10 30-Dec-09 18-Nov-09 07-Oct-09 26-Aug-09 15-Jul-09 03-Jun-09 22-Apr-09 11-Mar-09 28-Jan-09 17-Dec-08 5-Nov-08 24-Sep-08 2-Apr-08 20-Feb-08 9-Jan-08 28-Nov-07 8-Aug-07 Note: Data are weekly averages for all but the Foreign Central Bank TAF which are as of the last day of the week. Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors Statistical Release H.4.1. Florida Office New Jersey Office (800) 257-7013 One Sarasota Tower 614 E. Landis Avenue 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Vineland, NJ 08360 ©Copyright 2013 Cumberland Advisors®. Sarasota, FL 34236
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Factors Using Reserves Factors Using Reserves on Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet (Liabilities) from 6/27/2007 to 3/13/2013
$3,300 $3,150 $3,000 $2,850 $2,700 $2,550 $2,400 $2,250
Billions
$2,100 $1,950
$1,500 $1,350 $1,200 $1,050
TAF-12/12/07 Series Break "TDWP - 8/17/07"
$1,650
Series Break PDCF-3/16/08 TSLF-3/11/08, 950
$1,800
Reserve Balances
$900 $750 $600
Currency in Circulation
$450 6-Feb-13 26-Dec-12 14-Nov-12 3-Oct-12 22-Aug-12 11-Jul-12 30-May-12 18-Apr-12 7-Mar-12 25-Jan-12 14-Dec-11 2-Nov-11 21-Sep-11 10-Aug-11 29-Jun-11 18-May-11 6-Apr-11 23-Feb-11 12-Jan-11 1-Dec-10 20-Oct-10 8-Sep-10 28-Jul-10 16-Jun-10 5-May-10 24-Mar-10 10-Feb-10 30-Dec-09 18-Nov-09 07-Oct-09 26-Aug-09 15-Jul-09 03-Jun-09 22-Apr-09 11-Mar-09 28-Jan-09 17-Dec-08 5-Nov-08 24-Sep-08 2-Apr-08 20-Feb-08 9-Jan-08 28-Nov-07 8-Aug-07 27-Jun-07 Note: Data are weekly averages for all but the Foreign Central Bank TAF which are as of the last day of the week. Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors Statistical Release H.4.1. Florida Office New Jersey Office (800) 257-7013 One Sarasota Tower 614 E. Landis Avenue 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Vineland, NJ 08360 ©Copyright 2013 Cumberland Advisors®. Sarasota, FL 34236
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Projected Baseline Assets
Source: “Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy.” Greenlaw, Hamilton, Hooper, and Mishkin (2013).
Florida Office One Sarasota Tower 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Sarasota, FL 34236
New Jersey Office 614 E. Landis Avenue Vineland, NJ 08360
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Projected Baseline Liabilities
Source: “Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy.” Greenlaw, Hamilton, Hooper, and Mishkin (2013).
Florida Office One Sarasota Tower 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Sarasota, FL 34236
New Jersey Office 614 E. Landis Avenue Vineland, NJ 08360
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Everyone is Now Looking at Jobs • When will unemployment – most recently at 7.7% hit 6.5%? • We have looked at job formation assuming 0.7% annual growth in labor force and -0.3% annual change in participation rate.
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How Many Jobs Does the Economy Create?
Estimated Number of Quarters to Estimated Number Create 3.217 of Jobs Created Million Jobs Within Quarter Low (95%) Interval 17 134 9 268 6 402 4 536
Estimated Number of Estimated Number of Assumed Quarterly % Jobs Created within Quarters to Create 3.217 Real GDP Growth the Quarter Million Jobs Average 1 161 20 2 322 10 3 483 7 4 644 5
Estimated Number of Jobs Created Within Quarter Hi (95%) Interval 188 377 565 753
Estimated Number of Estimated Number of Assumed Quarterly % Jobs Created per Months to Create 3.217 Real GDP Growth Month Million Jobs Average 1 54 60 2 107 30 3 161 20 4 215 15
Estimated Number Estimated Number of Months to Estimated Number of Jobs Created per Create 3.217 of Jobs Created Month Million Jobs Within Month Hi (95%) Interval Low (95%) Interval 63 51 45 126 26 89 188 17 134 251 13 179
Estimated Number of Quarters to Create 3.217 Million Jobs 24 12 8 6
Estimated Number of Months to Create 3.217 Million Jobs 72 36 24 18
Source: Haver and Cumberland Advisors Florida Office One Sarasota Tower 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Sarasota, FL 34236
New Jersey Office 614 E. Landis Avenue Vineland, NJ 08360
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GDP Growth Needed to Create Enough Jobs for Unemployment to Hit 6.5%
Source: Cumberland Advisors Florida Office One Sarasota Tower 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Sarasota, FL 34236
New Jersey Office 614 E. Landis Avenue Vineland, NJ 08360
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Job Growth Needed to Hit 6.5% Unemployment
Source: Cumberland Advisors Florida Office One Sarasota Tower 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Sarasota, FL 34236
New Jersey Office 614 E. Landis Avenue Vineland, NJ 08360
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U3 Through U6 U4 : U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them. U5 : U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently. U6 : U5 + Part time workers who want to work full time, but cannot due to economic reasons. 18
U6
U5
U4
U3
16 14
Percent
12 10 8 6 4 2
Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 2013
Source: BLS and Cumberland Advisors, Inc.
Florida Office One Sarasota Tower 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Sarasota, FL 34236
New Jersey Office 614 E. Landis Avenue Vineland, NJ 08360
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Sources of Difference Between U6 and Standard Employment Statistic % Discourage Workers
%Marginally Attached Workers
%Partime Workes Who Want Full Time Work
8
7
Percent
6
5
4
3
2
1
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Jan
Sep
Jan May
Sep
May
Sep Jan
Jan
May
Jan
May Sep
May Sep
Jan
Sep
Jan May
Sep
May
Sep Jan
Jan
May
May Sep
Jan
Sep
Jan May
Sep
May
Sep Jan
May
Jan
Jan
May Sep
0
2012 2013
Source: BLS and Cumberland Advisors, Inc.
Florida Office One Sarasota Tower 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Sarasota, FL 34236
New Jersey Office 614 E. Landis Avenue Vineland, NJ 08360
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The Beveridge Curve: Job Vacancy Rate vs. U-3 Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted) 3.5 3.0
Job Vacancy Rate
Nov '07
Dec '01
Jan '13
Dec '07
2.5
Dec '12
2.0 Jun '09
1.5
Jul '09
1.0 3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
U-3 Unemployment Rate Dec '01- Nov '07
Dec '07- Jun '09
Jul '09- Jan '13
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey and Job Openings Labor Turnover Survey, March 12, 2013 Florida Office One Sarasota Tower 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Sarasota, FL 34236
New Jersey Office 614 E. Landis Avenue Vineland, NJ 08360
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Monthly Unemployment vs. Inflation 11.0
Unemployment Rate (U-3)
Nov-09 Apr-10
Oct-09
10.0 Jul-09
9.0
Post Crisis (Jul '09-present)
Mar-10 Dec-09 Nov-10 Feb-10 Jan-10 Oct-10 May-10 Jul-10 Jun-10Aug-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Jan-11 May-11 Jun-11Sep-11 Mar-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Feb-12 Jan-12 Jul-12 May-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 Jan-13 Oct-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Nov-12
Sep-09 Aug-09 Jun-09 May-09
Sep-10
Apr-09 Mar-09 Feb-09
8.0
Jan-09
Feb-13
During Crisis (Dec. '07-June '09)
Dec-08
7.0
Nov-08 Oct-08
Fed Target
6.0
Sep-08 Aug-08 Jul-08 Jun-08
(6.5% unemployment rate, 2.5% inflation rate) May-08
5.0
Jul-07
Pre-Crisis (Jan '07-Nov '07)
Aug-07
Sep-07
Mar-08 Jan-08 Dec-07 Feb-08
Apr-08
Jan-07 Jun-07 Apr-07 Oct-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 May-07
Nov-07
4.0 -3.0
-2.0
-1.0
Pre-Crisis
0.0
1.0
2.0
Inflation (CPI ) During Crisis
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Post Crisis
Source: Concept: Thomas W. Synnott, Bureau of Labor Statistics March 15, 2013 Florida Office One Sarasota Tower 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Sarasota, FL 34236
New Jersey Office 614 E. Landis Avenue Vineland, NJ 08360
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Total Assets of Major Central Banks Monthly Central Bank Assets (Dollar Equivalents on Left Scale $ Billions) for US, UK,Japan, Euro Area, and Swiss National Bank from June-06 to Feb-13 $ Billions
Federal Reserve
Bank of England
ECB
Bank of Japan
Swiss National Bank
X
10000
Mar. 2013 Estimate:
8000
$10020 bn
6000
4000
2000
0
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Oct-09
Jul-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
Oct-08
Jul-08
Apr-08
New Jersey Office 614 E. Landis Avenue Vineland, NJ 08360
Jan-08
Oct-07
Jul-07
Apr-07
Jan-07
Oct-06
Jul-06
Apr-06
Jan-06
Florida Office One Sarasota Tower 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Sarasota, FL 34236
(800) 257-7013
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European System of Central Banks European System of Central Banks Assets in Euros from 01/05/07 to 03/01/13 Eurosystem: Other Assets (NSA, Mil.EUR)
3500000
Eurosystem: Asset: General Govt Debt Denominated in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR) Eurosystem: Asset: Securities of Euro Area Resid in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)
3000000
Eurosystem: Asset: Oth Claim on Eur Area Cred Inst in Euro(NSA Mil.EUR) Eurosystem: Asset: Lending to Euro Area Cred Inst in Euro (NSA Mil.EUR)
2500000
Eurosystem: Asset: Claims on Noneuro Residents in Euros (NSA, Mil.EUR) Eurosystem: Asset: Claims on Euro Res in Fgn Currency (NSA, Mil.EUR)
2000000
Eurosystem: Asset: Claims on Noneuro Res in Fgn Currency (NSA Mil.EUR) Eurosystem: Asset: Gold and Gold Receivables (NSA, Mil.EUR)
1500000
1000000
500000
0
10/19/2012 6/1/2012 1/13/2012 8/26/2011 4/8/2011 11/19/2010 7/2/2010 2/12/2010 9/25/2009 5/8/2009 12/19/2008 8/1/2008 3/14/2008 10/26/2007 6/8/2007 1/19/2007 9/1/2006 4/14/2006 11/25/2005 7/8/2005 2/18/2005 10/1/2004 5/14/2004 12/26/2003 8/8/2003 3/21/2003 11/1/2002 6/14/2002 1/25/2002 9/7/2001 4/20/2001 12/1/2000 7/14/2000 2/25/2000 10/8/1999 5/21/1999 1/1/1999 Source: Oesterreichische Nationalbank.
Florida Office One Sarasota Tower 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Sarasota, FL 34236
New Jersey Office 614 E. Landis Avenue Vineland, NJ 08360
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European System - Liabilities European System of Central Banks Liabilities in Euros from 01/05/07 to 03/01/13 3500000
Eurosystem: Capital and Reserves (NSA, Mil.EUR) Eurosystem: Revaluation Accounts (NSA, Mil.EUR) Eurosystem: Other Liabilities (NSA, Mil.EUR)
3000000
Eurosystem: Liab: Counterpart of SDRs Allocated by IMF (NSA, Mil.EUR) Eurosystem: Liab to Noneuro Area Resid in Fgn Currency (NSA, Mil.EUR) Eurosystem: Liab to Euro Area Residents in Fgn Currency (NSA, Mil.EUR) Eurosystem: Liab to Non-euro Area Residents in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)
2500000
2000000
1500000
Eurosystem: Liab to Other Euro Area Residents in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR) Eurosystem: Liab: Debt Certificates Issued (NSA, Mil.EUR)
1000000
Eurosystem: Other Liab to Euro Area Credit Inst in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)
500000
Eurosystem: Liab to Euro Area Credit Institutions in Euro(NSA, Mil.EUR) Eurosystem: Liab: Banknotes in Circulation (NSA, Mil.EUR)
0
11/2/2012 6/22/2012 2/10/2012 9/30/2011 5/20/2011 1/7/2011 8/27/2010 4/16/2010 12/4/2009 7/24/2009 3/13/2009 10/31/2008 6/20/2008 2/8/2008 9/28/2007 5/18/2007 1/5/2007 8/25/2006 4/14/2006 12/2/2005 7/22/2005 3/11/2005 10/29/2004 6/18/2004 2/6/2004 9/26/2003 5/16/2003 1/3/2003 8/23/2002 4/12/2002 11/30/2001 7/20/2001 3/9/2001 10/27/2000 6/16/2000 2/4/2000 9/24/1999 5/14/1999 1/1/1999
Florida Office One Sarasota Tower 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Sarasota, FL 34236
New Jersey Office 614 E. Landis Avenue Vineland, NJ 08360
Source: Oesterreichische Nationalbank.
(800) 257-7013
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Bank of England Assets Bank of England Assets in Pounds Sterling from 01/03/07 to 03/06/13 450000
UK: BoE Consol St: Short-term Open Mkt Operations {RPWB66A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)
400000
UK: BoE Consolidated Statement: Total Other Assets {RPWB74A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)
350000
UK: BoE Cons St: Other Sec Acq Via Mkt Transactns {RPWB73A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds) UK: BoE Consol St: Advances to the Central Govt {RPWB72A} -DISC(NSA,Mil.Pounds)
300000
UK: BoE Consol St: Longer-term Reverse Repo {RPWB69A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
Source: Bank of England.
Florida Office One Sarasota Tower 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Sarasota, FL 34236
New Jersey Office 614 E. Landis Avenue Vineland, NJ 08360
(800) 257-7013
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Bank of England Liabilities Bank of England Liabilities in Pounds Sterling from 01/03/07 to 03/06/13 UK: BoE Consolidated St: Foreign Currency Securities {RPWB59A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)
450000
400000
UK: BoE Consolidated Statement: Other Liabilities {RPWB63A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)
350000 UK: BoE Consolidated Statement: Cash Ratio Deposits {RPWB62A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)
300000
UK: BoE Cons St: Open Mkt Operatns: Fine-tuning Repo {RPWB58A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)
250000
200000
UK: BoE Consol St: Standing Facility Deposits {RPWB57A} --DISC (NSA, Mil.Pounds)
150000 UK: BoE Consol St: Reserve Balance Liabilities {RPWB56A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)
100000
UK: BoE Consolidated St: Notes in Circulation {RPWB55A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)
50000
Florida Office One Sarasota Tower 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Sarasota, FL 34236
New Jersey Office 614 E. Landis Avenue Vineland, NJ 08360
1/3/2013
7/3/2012
10/3/2012
4/3/2012
1/3/2012
7/3/2011
10/3/2011
4/3/2011
1/3/2011
7/3/2010
10/3/2010
4/3/2010
1/3/2010
7/3/2009
10/3/2009
4/3/2009
1/3/2009
10/3/2008
7/3/2008
4/3/2008
1/3/2008
10/3/2007
7/3/2007
4/3/2007
1/3/2007
0
Source: Bank of England.
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Swiss National Bank Assets Swiss National Bank Assets in Swiss Francs from 01/31/07 to 01/31/13 600000
500000
Reserve position in the IF
Other assets
400000
Loan to stabilisation fund CHF securities Clais against doestic correspondents Doestic oney arket clais
300000
Balances fro swap transactions against CHF Clais fro USD repo transactions Clais fro CHF repo transactions 200000
onetary assistance loans International payent instruents Foreign currency investents Gold holdings and clais fro gold transactions
100000
0
01 2013
10 2012
07 2012
04 2012
01 2012
10 2011
07 2011
04 2011
01 2011
10 2010
07 2010
04 2010
01 2010
10 2009
07 2009
New Jersey Office 614 E. Landis Avenue Vineland, NJ 08360
04 2009
01 2009
10 2008
07 2008
04 2008
01 2008
10 2007
07 2007
04 2007
01 2007
Florida Office One Sarasota Tower 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Sarasota, FL 34236
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Swiss National Bank Liabilities Swiss National Bank Liabilities in Swiss Francs from 01/31/07 to 01/31/13 600000
Provisions and equity capital 500000 Other liabilities Counterpart of special drawing rights allocated by the IF 400000
Foreign currency liabilities Other tie liabilities SNB debt certificates
300000
Liabilities fro CHF repo transactions Other sight liabilities
200000 Sight deposits of foreign banks and institutions Liabilities towards the Confederation 100000 Sight deposits of doestic banks Banknotes in circulation
0 01 2013
10 2012
07 2012
04 2012
01 2012
10 2011
07 2011
04 2011
01 2011
10 2010
07 2010
04 2010
01 2010
10 2009
07 2009
New Jersey Office 614 E. Landis Avenue Vineland, NJ 08360
04 2009
01 2009
10 2008
07 2008
04 2008
01 2008
10 2007
07 2007
04 2007
01 2007
Florida Office One Sarasota Tower 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Sarasota, FL 34236
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Bank of Japan Assets Bank of Japan Assets from 7/ 97 to 2/13 180,000.00
Japan removes QE2 with Bills Purchased
160,000.00 140,000.00 120,000.00 Y 100,000.00 e n 80,000.00 60,000.00 40,000.00 20,000.00
Jul-97 Nov-97 Mar-98 Jul-98 Nov-98 Mar-99 Jul-99 Nov-99 Mar-00 Jul-00 Nov-00 Mar-01 Jul-01 Nov-01 Mar-02 Jul-02 Nov-02 Mar-03 Jul-03 Nov-03 Mar-04 Jul-04 Nov-04 Mar-05 Jul-05 Nov-05 Mar-06 Jul-06 Nov-06 Mar-07 Jul-07 Nov-07 Mar-08 Jul-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12
0.00
Gold (Bil.Yen)
Recei vables Under Resal e Agreements (Bi l.Yen)
Bill s Purchased (Bil.Yen)
Government Securities in Custody (Bil.Yen)
Commercial Bills Discounted (Bil.Yen)
Commercial Paper (EOP, Bil.Yen)
Corporate Bonds (EOP, Bil.Yen)
Pecuniary Trusts [Stocks Hel d as Trust Property ] (Bi l.Yen)
Index-Linked Exch-Traded Funds Held as Trust Prop(Bil.Yen)
Real Estate Invt Trusts (Bil.Yen)
Cash (Bil.Yen)
Japanese Government Securities (Bil.Yen)
Asset -B acked Securities (Bil.Yen)
Loans Excluding Those to the Deposit Insurance Corp(Bil .Yen)
Loans to Deposit Insurance Corporat ion (Bi l.Yen)
Foreign Currency Assets (Bil.Yen)
Deposits with Agents (Bil.Yen)
Cash Collat in Exchange for Govt Securities Borrowed(Bil.Yen)
Other (Bil.Yen)
Tot al Assets (Bi l.Yen)
Florida Office One Sarasota Tower 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Sarasota, FL 34236
New Jersey Office 614 E. Landis Avenue Vineland, NJ 08360
Source: Bank of Japan.
(800) 257-7013
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Bank of Japan Liabilities Bank of Japan Liabilities from 7/ 97 to 2/13
Japan removes QE2 with Current Deposits Removed
180,000.00
160,000.00
140,000.00
120,000.00
Y e n
100,000.00
80,000.00
60,000.00
40,000.00
20,000.00
0.00
Banknotes (Bil.Yen)
Current deposits (Bil.Yen)
Other deposits (Bil.Yen)
Payables Under Repurchase Agreements (Bil.Yen)
Bills Sold (Bil.Yen)
Other (Bil.Yen)
Provisions (Bil.Yen)
Deposits of the Govt(Bil.Yen)
Capital (Bil.Yen)
Legal & Special Reserves (Bil.Yen)
Govt Securities Borrowed (Bil.Yen)
Total Liabilities & Capital Accounts (Bil.Yen)
Source: Bank of Japan.
Florida Office One Sarasota Tower 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Sarasota, FL 34236
New Jersey Office 614 E. Landis Avenue Vineland, NJ 08360
(800) 257-7013
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Disclosure All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Florida Office One Sarasota Tower 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Sarasota, FL 34236
New Jersey Office 614 E. Landis Avenue Vineland, NJ 08360
(800) 257-7013
23 ŠCopyright 2013 Cumberland AdvisorsŽ. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.