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Kotok May 11 06

Page 1

David R. Kotok Chairman & Chief Investment Officer Cumberland Advisors May 11, 2006 Conference Terrorism Tomorrow Malvern, PA 614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com


Terrorism Shocks

Feb 1993: WTC Bombing

1994

Aug 1998: Simultaneous U.S. Embassy Bombings – Nairobi, Kenya & Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

1996

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

1998

Oct. 2000: USS Cole attacked in Aden, Yemen Sept. 11

Mar. 2004: Madrid train bomb

Nov. 2002: bombing of Hong Kong Shanghai Bank

2000

Chart 2

2002

Jul. 2005: London public transportation bombings

2004

2006


Financial Shocks

1994

1996

1998 1999: Y2K Fears

1994-1995: Mexican Peso Crisis

Jul. 1997: Thai Baht currency crisis

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2000 2000: Global Tech Stock Bubble Collapse

1998: Long Term Capital Mgt. / Russian Ruble collapse

Chart 3

2002

2004 2002-2003: Corporate Governance Failures (Enron, WorldCom, Parmalat)

Nov. 2002: Argentina default

2006


Reactions to Shocks Oct. 2000: USS Cole attacked in Aden, Yemen

Aug 1998: Simultaneous U.S. Embassy Bombings – Nairobi, Kenya & Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Feb 1993: WTC Bombing 1990s:

Sept. 11

Apr. 1999: Financial Stability Forum (FSF) Created

Global Talks for Greater Cooperation begin

1994

1996 1994-1995: Mexican Peso Crisis

1998 1997-1998: 1999: Dialogue Y2K Fears Intensifies

Jul. 1997: Thai Baht currency crisis

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Mar. 2004: Madrid train bomb

2000 1999: Global 2000: Prep forTech Y2K Global Stock Bubble Collapse

1998: Long Term Capital Mgt. / Russian Ruble collapse

Chart 4

Nov. 2002: bombing of Hong Kong Shanghai Bank

2002

Jul. 2005: London public transportation bombings

2004 2002-2003: Corporate Governance Failures (Enron, WorldCom, Parmalat)

Nov. 2002: Argentina default

2006


Result: Global Bond Risk Premiums are Shrinking Outside the United States 1800 1600

LTCM

Basis Points

1400

9/11

1200

Argentina default

1000 800 600 400 200 0 1998

Daily Spreads of JPMorgan's Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI)+ Sovereign over US Benchmark Bond Yields

1999

2000

2001

2002

Source: JP Morgan and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 5

2003

2004

2005

2006


Result: Global Bond Risk Premiums are Shrinking Inside the United States 1200

9/11

Argentina default

Basis Points

1000

LTCM

800 600 400 200 0

Mar-06 334 CS High Yield Index II (formerly DLJ High Yield Index) Spread to Worst expressed in basis points. Monthly data.

Apr-98

Apr-00

Apr-02

Source: Bloomberg and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 6

Apr-04

Apr-06


Result: Global Bond Risk Premiums are Shrinking In the United States Bond market Fear Index III (Junk Yields vs Investment Grade Corporate Yields) 20

Junk BondYields BasisPoints/Annum When: High Yield/Corp Credit Yield RatioIs: Above 177.2 * Between 133.9 and 177.2 133.9 and Below

17 15 13

Points/ Annum -286 20 157

Lehman Brothers High Yield Corporate Bond Yield ( )

11

20

Arg. default

% of Time 19. 1 68. 3 12. 6

17 15 13 11

10

10

9

9 Lehman Brothers US Corporate Credit Yield ( )

8 7

8 7

6

Monthly Data 1/31/1987 - 3/31/2006 (Log Scale)

5 4 239 228 218 208 199 190 181 173 165 157 150 143 137 131

Fear Index III (High Yield/Corporate Credit Yields) Extreme Fear

Source: Ned Davis Research chart B336A and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 7

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

3/31/2006 = 140.2% 1992

1991

1990

1989

1987

Excessive Optimism 1988

4 239 228 218 208 199 190 181 173 165 157 150 143 137 131

9/11

LTCM

5

6


Equity Risk premiums are shrinking in stock markets, too. Let’s look around the world and see where and how‌

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 8


Three Ways to View The World - 1998 1998 PPP ($mm)

1998 GDP ($mm)

World’s 10 Largest Stock Markets ($mm) Measured in USD at 12/31/98 exchange rates

World Total

40,219,240

%

World Total

29,633,310

%

World Total 25,683,171

%

1. United States

8,650,777

21.5

1.

United States

8,694,600

29.3

1. United States 12,926,177

2. China**

4,185,190

10.4

2.

Japan

3,931,051

13.3

2. Japan

2,495,757

9.7

3. Japan

3,114,543

7.7

3.

Euronext*

2,208,083

7.5

3. U.K.

2,372,738

9.2

4. Euronext*

2,213,188

5.5

4. Germany

2,144,493

7.2

4. Euronext*

1,903,278

7.4

5. India

2,127,580

5.3

5. U.K.

1,423,379

4.8

5. Germany

1,093,962

4.3

6. Germany

1,930,148

4.8

6. China**

1,111,543

3.8

6. Switzerland

689,199

2.7

7. U.K.

1,413,974

3.5

7.

Italy

1,196,631

4.0

7. China**

579,,427

2.3

8. Italy

1,333,139

3.3

8.

Spain

588,011

2.0

8. Italy

569,732

2.2

9. Brazil

1,140,947

2.8

9.

Canada

606,909

2.1

9. Canada

547,841

2.1

865,820

2.1

10. India

413,825

1.4

402,163

1.6

11,732,128

29.2

6,256,091

21.1

Rest of World 2,102,897

8.2

10. Russia Rest of World

Rest of World

(171 Countries)

* Euronext includes Belgium, France, Netherlands, and Portugal. ** China includes China and Hong Kong. *** India includes National Stock Exchange of India and Mumbai Exchange. Source: World Bank Data 2004, World Federation of Stock Exchanges, and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors.

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 9

10. Spain (36 exchanges)

50.3


Three Ways to View The World 2004 PPP ($mm)

2004 GDP ($mm)

World’s 10 Largest Stock Markets ($mm) Measured in USD at 3/31/06 exchange rates

World Total

55,938,191

%

World Total

40,887,837

%

11,628,083

20.8

1.

United States

11,667,515

28.5

1. United States 17,941,481

40.4

2. China**

7,334,392

13.1

2.

Japan

4,623,398

11.3

2. Japan

4,774,550

10.8

3. Japan

3,774,086

6.7

3.

Euronext*

3,097,953

7.6

3. U.K.

3,253,372

7.3

4. India

3,362,960

6.0

4. Germany

2,714,418

6.6

4. Euronext*

3,115,780

7.0

5. Euronext*

2,793,365

5.0

5. U.K.

2,140,898

5.2

5.

China**

1,654,242

3.7

6. Germany

2,325,828

4.2

6. China**

1,812,334

4.4

6.

Canada

1,620,894

3.7

7. U.K.

1,832,252

3.3

7.

Italy

1,672,302

4.1

7. Germany

1,399,555

3.2

8. Italy

1,621,372

2.9

8.

Spain

991,442

2.4

8. India***

1,309,411

3.0

9. Brazil

1,482,859

2.7

9.

Canada

979,764

2.4

9. Spain

1,094,120

2.5

10. Russia

1,408,603

2.5

10. India

691,876

1.7

1,015,937

2.3

17,238,142

31.0

9,816,263

24.0

Rest of World 7,205,069

16.2

1. United States

Rest of World

Rest of World

(171 Countries)

* Euronext includes Belgium, France, Netherlands, and Portugal. ** China includes China and Hong Kong. *** India includes National Stock Exchange of India and Mumbai Exchange. Source: World Bank Data 2004, World Federation of Stock Exchanges, and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors.

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 10

World Total 44,384,409

10. Switzerland (36 exchanges)

%


World Measured by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) 1998 (Total $40.219 trillion)

China 10.4%

India Japan Euronext 5.3% 7.7% 5.5%

United States 21.5%

2004 (Total $55.938 trillion)

China 13.1%

Germany 4.8% U.K. 3.5% Italy 3.3% Brazil 2.8% Russia 2.2%

India 6.0%

Euronext 5.0% Germany 4.2% U.K. Italy 3.3% 2.9% Brazil 2.7%

United States 20.8%

Rest of World 29.2%

Russia 2.5%

Rest of World 31.0%

Source: World Federation of Stock Exchanges, World Bank Data 2004, and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Japan 6.7%

Chart 11


World Measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 1998 (Total $29.633 trillion)

2004 (Total $40.888 trillion) Japan 11.3%

Japan 13.3%

Euronext 7.5% Germany 7.2% U.K. 4.8% China 3.8% Italy 4.0% Spain 2.0%

United States 29.3%

Rest of World 21.1%

India 1.4%

U.K. 5.2% China 4.4% Italy 4.1%

United States 28.5%

Spain 2.4% Canada 2.4%

Canada 2.0%

Rest of World 24.0%

Source: World Federation of Stock Exchanges, World Bank Data 2004, and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Euronext 7.6% Germany 6.6%

Chart 12

India 1.7%


World Measured by Stock Market Capitalization 1998 (Total $25.683 trillion)

2004 (Total $37.168 trillion) Japan 9.6%

Japan 9.7%

U.K. 9.2%

Euronext Germany 7.4% 4.3% Sw itzerland 2.7% China 2.3%

United States 50.3%

Italy 2.2% Canada 2.1% Spain 1.6% Rest of World 8.2%

Euronext 6.6% Canada 3.2% China 3.5%

United States 43.9%

Germany 3.2%

Rest of World 15.6%

Source: World Federation of Stock Exchanges, World Bank Data 2004, and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

U.K. 7.7%

Chart 13

India 2.0% Spain Sw itzerland 2.5% 2.2%


Look What Has Happened Since 2004 2004 (Total $37.168 trillion)

Japan 9.6%

Mar. 2006 (Total $44.384 trillion) Japan 10.8%

U.K. 7.7%

U.K. 7.3%

Euronext 6.6% Canada 3.2% China 3.5%

United States 43.9%

Canada 3.7% China

United States 40.4%

3.7% Germany 3.2%

Germany 3.2%

Rest of World 15.6%

India 2.0% Spain Sw itzerland 2.5% 2.2%

Rest of World 16.2%

Source: World Federation of Stock Exchanges, World Bank Data 2004, and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 14

Euronext 7.0%

India 3.0% Spain Sw itzerland 2.5% 2.3%


Share of World Stock Market Value 100% 90% 80%

1998 marks end of the LTCM crisis

Rest of World

70% 60%

1998 ROW 49.7%

Mar. 2006 ROW 59.6%

50% 40%

1998 U.S. 50.3%

US Share Shrinking

Mar. 2006 U.S. 40.4%

30%

U.S.

20% 10% 0% 1998

1999

2000

2001

Source: World Federation of Stock Exchanges and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 15

2002

2003

2004

2005


Share of World Stock Market Value 1998 (Total $25.683 trillion)

Europe 30.6%

Mar. 2006 (Total $44.384 trillion) Europe 28.1%

Latin America 1.4%

Latin America 2.5% Other 2.6%

Other 0.7%

Asia 14.9% Canada 2.1%

Asia 22.8%

U.S. 40.4%

U.S. 50.3%

Canada 3.7% Note: See appendix at the end of this presentation for chart details. Source: World Federation of Stock Exchanges and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 16


Share of World Stock Market Value: Japan Mar. 2006 (Total $44.384 trillion)

1998 (Total $25.683 trillion) Japan 10.8% $4,774.5 Bn

Japan 10% $2,495.8 Bn

US US 40.4% 43.0%

US 50%

ROW 53.5% ROW 48.8%

ROW 40%

Source: World Federation of Stock Exchanges and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 17


Share of World Stock Market Value: China Mar. 2006 (Total $44.384 trillion)

1998 (Total $25.683 trillion) China 3.7% $1,654.2 Bn

China 2.3% $579.4 Bn

US 40.4% ROW 47.4%

US 50.3%

ROW 55.8%

Source: World Federation of Stock Exchanges and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 18


Share of World Stock Market Value: India 1998 (Total $25.683 trillion)

Mar. 2006 (Total $44.384 trillion) India 3.0% $1,309.4 Bn

India 0% $0.0 Bn

US 40.4% US 43.0%

US 50% ROW 50%

ROW ROW 53.5% 56.6%

India was not a member of the World Federation of Stock Exchanges until 2002. Source: World Federation of Stock Exchanges and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 19


Share of World Stock Market Value: Other Asia, Middle East & Africa Indonesia, Iran, Israel, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Singapore, South Africa, Mauritius, Egypt 1998 (Total $25.683 trillion)

Mar. 2006 (Total $44.384 trillion) Other Asia, ME Africa 7.0% $3,108.2 Bn

Other Asia, ME, Africa 3.1% $798.1 Mm ROW 47%

US 50% ROW 52.6%

Note: See appendix at the end of this presentation for chart details. Source: World Federation of Stock Exchanges and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

US 40.4%

Chart 20


Share of World Stock Market Value: 25 European Union (EU) Members Mar. 2006 (Total $44.384 trillion)

1998 (Total $25.683 trillion) 25 EU Members 25.6% $11,346.7 Bn

25 EU Members 28% $7,118.4 Bn

US 50%

ROW 53.5%

ROW 22%

ROW 34.0%

Note: See appendix at the end of this presentation for chart details. Source: World Federation of Stock Exchanges and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 21

US 43.0% US 40.4%


Share of World Stock Market Value: Original 11 European Monetary Union (EMU) Members 1998 (Total $25.683 trillion)

11 EMU Members 15.4% $6,843.1 Bn

11 EMU Members 17% $4,264.5 Bn

ROW 33%

Mar. 2006 (Total $44.384 trillion)

ROW 53.5% ROW 44.2%

US 50%

Note: See appendix at the end of this presentation for chart details. Source: World Federation of Stock Exchanges and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 22

US US 43.0% 40.4%


Share of World Stock Market Value: United Kingdom 1998 (Total $25.683 trillion)

Mar. 2006 (Total $44.384 trillion) U.K. 7.3% $3,253.4 Bn

U.K. 9% $2,372.7 Bn

US 40.4% US

US 51%

43.0% ROW 53.5% ROW 52.2%

ROW 40%

Source: World Federation of Stock Exchanges and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 23


Share of World Stock Market Value: Germany 1998 (Total $25.683 trillion)

Mar. 2006 (Total $44.384 trillion) Germany 3.2% $1,399.6 Bn

Germany 4.3% $1,093.9 Bn

US 40.4% US 43.0%

US 50.3% ROWROW 53.5% 56.4%

ROW 45.4%

Source: World Federation of Stock Exchanges and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 24


Share of World Stock Market Value: Switzerland 1998 (Total $25.683 trillion)

Mar. 2006 (Total $44.384 trillion) Switzerland 2.3% $1,015.9 Bn

Switzerland 2.7% $689.1 Mm US 50.3%

ROW ROW 57.3% 53.5%

ROW 47%

Source: World Federation of Stock Exchanges and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 25

US US 40.4% 43.0%


Share of World Stock Market Value: Euronext (France, Portugal, Belgium, Netherlands) Mar. 2006 (Total $44.384 trillion)

1998 (Total $25.683 trillion) Euronext 7.0% $3,115.8 Bn

France, Portugal, Belgium, Netherlands

7% $1,903.3 Bn

ROW 43%

US US 40.4% 43.0%

US 50%

ROW ROW 53.5% 52.6%

Note: See appendix at the end of this presentation for chart details. Source: World Federation of Stock Exchanges and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 26


Share of World Stock Market Value: Norway Mar. 2006 (Total $44.384 trillion)

1998 (Total $25.683 trillion) Norway 0.5% $238.4 Mm

Norway 0.2% $46.3 Mm

US 40.4% US 43.0%

US 50.3% ROW 53.5%ROW 59.0%

ROW 49.5%

Source: World Federation of Stock Exchanges and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 27


Share of World Stock Market Value: Other Europe (OMX) Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania Mar. 2006 (Total $44.384 trillion)

1998 (Total $25.683 trillion) Other Europe 2.1% $532.4 Mm

OMX Exchanges 2.1% $917.7 Mm

ROW 47.6%

US 40.4% US 43.0%

US 50.3%

ROW ROW 53.5% 57.5%

Lithuania ESTONIA and Latvia are not included in 1998. Note: See appendix at the end of this presentation for chart details. Source: World Federation of Stock Exchanges and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 28


Share of World Stock Market Value: Central Europe Poland, Hungary, Slovenia (Czech Republic and Slovakia do not report to the WFE.) 1998 (Total $25.683 trillion) Central Europe 0.1% $23.4 Mm

Mar. 2006 (Total $44.384 trillion) Central Europe 0.3% $147.8 Mm US 40.4% US

US 50%

43.0% ROWROW 53.5% 59.2%

ROW 49%

Note: See appendix at the end of this presentation for chart details. Source: World Federation of Stock Exchanges (WFE) and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 29


Share of World Stock Market Value: Australia, New Zealand 1998 (Total $25.683 trillion)

Mar. 2006 (Total $44.384 trillion) Australia, NZ 2.0% $893.5 Mm

Australia, NZ 1.4% $353.4 Mm

ROW 48.3%

US 40.4% US 43.0%

US 50.3%

ROW 53.5% ROW 57.6%

Note: See appendix at the end of this presentation for chart details. Source: World Federation of Stock Exchanges and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 30


Share of World Stock Market Value: Latin America Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru, Mexico 1998 (Total $25.683 trillion)

Mar. 2006 (Total $44.384 trillion) Latin America 2.5% $1,106.4 Mm

Latin America 1% $359.7 Mm

ROW 49%

US 40.4% US 43.0%

US 51%

ROW 53.5% ROW 57.1%

Note: See appendix at the end of this presentation for chart details. Source: World Federation of Stock Exchanges and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 31


Conclusion • Global economic / financial dialogue expanding • Money is leaving the U.S. for foreign markets • Risk premiums are low • Watch out for shocks • Terrorism • Nuclear • Bird Flu • Protectionism 614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 32


Appendix: Data Tables for Pie Charts (USD Bn) Chart Page 11 – World 1998

1998

03/2006

12926177

17941481

U.S.

547841

1620894

ROW

Asia

3785465

10099792

Europe

7853892

12481332

U.S. Canada

Latin America Other

359700 210096

1106435 1134475

Indonesia

Chart Page 17 – 11 EMU Members U.S. ROW

12926177

03/2006 17941481

17941481

12926177

17941481

12109540

23334746

ROW

5638574

15096272

647454

100204

12926177

11115

33660

39230

132338

Korea

114593

751687

Malaysia

95561

195397

Philippines

34911

45363

1705

6710

260498

Thailand Turkey Singapore

Denmark / OMX

98881

917774

2372738

3253372

Sweden

278708

OMX

Slovenia

2985

8192

20461

104855

603182

Euronext

UK

Poland Netherlands Greece

80126

169827

Belgium

245657

Euronext

490433

Germany

1093962

1399555

135276 176561

Finland

154833

OMX

66593

127498

96472

293961

Italy

150670

665626

34118 33646

Ireland

8492473

19599851

Netherlands

603182

Euronext

South Africa

Belgium

245657

Euronext

Mauritius

Germany

1093962

1399555

154833

917774

66593

127498

Cyprus

569732

896506

Hungary

Portugal

62954

Euronext

Malta

Luxembourg

38182

59115

Finland / OMX Ireland Italy

France

991484

Euronext

Spain

402163

1094120

35779

150505

Austria Euronext

3115780

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

03/2006

U.S.

Israel

Taiwan

1998

03/2006

Iran

Sri Lanka 1998

Chart Page 16 – 25 EU Members

Chart Page 12 – Other Asia

2747

Egypt

78221

Portugal Luxembourg

896506

62954

Euronext

38182

59115

France

991484

Euronext

Spain

402163

1094120

Austria

35779

150505

Euronext

Note: Euronext includes Belgium, France, Netherlands and Portugal. OMX Exchanges include Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia.

Chart 33

569732

9355 34718.9 5487 3115780


Appendix: Data Tables - Pie Charts (USD Bn) Chart Page 22 – Euronext 1998

Chart Page 24 – Central Europe

Chart Page 23 – Other Europe

03/2006

1998

03/2006

U.S.

12926177

17941481

U.S.

12926177

17941481

US

12926177

17941481

ROW

10853717

23327148

ROW

11130611

25525155

ROW

12697769

26295163

2985

8192

20461

104855

France

991484

Euronext

Denmark

Portugal

62954

Euronext

Belgium

245657

Netherlands

603182

1998

98881

OMX

Finland

154833

Slovenia

OMX

Euronext

Sweden

278708

OMX

Slovakia

Euronext

OMX Exchanges

Euronext

917774

3115780

Poland Hungary Czech Rep.

Chart Page 27 – Latin America 1998

03/2006

U.S.

12926177

17941481

ROW

12397295

25336496

Argentina

45333

46962

Brazil

160886

583354

Chile

51866

143251

Colombia Peru Mexico

57948 9869

23310

91746

251611

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Note: Euronext includes Belgium, France, Netherlands and Portugal. OMX Exchanges include Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Lithuania, and Latvia.

Chart 34

03/2006

34719


About Cumberland Advisors Cumberland Advisors supervises approximately $820 million in separate account assets for individuals, institutions, retirement plans, government entities, and cash management portfolios. Cumberland manages portfolios for clients in 39 states, the District of Columbia, and in countries outside the U.S. Cumberland Advisors is an SEC registered investment adviser. Munis, Taxables, ETFs Cumberland’s portfolio management efforts emphasize long lasting relationships and continuous dialogue among clients, their consultants, tax advisors, accountants, estate planners and their assigned portfolio management contact at Cumberland. Cumberland offers several different investment portfolio management styles. Our investment strategy is described in detail on our web site. Fixed Income All of our fixed-income offerings are total return strategies, but can take the client’s current income needs into consideration. Our fixed income styles are Tax-Free Municipal Bonds, Taxable Bonds, Tax-Free Tobacco Bonds, and Short Term Investment Program. Stocks Cumberland uses Exchange-Traded Funds to manage global equities. Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are securities that mimic the price performance and dividend yield of an index, or a basket, of securities. Cumberland uses ETFs as building blocks in crafting a portfolio, investing in attractive equity sectors, industries, market capitalization strata, styles and regions. Our equity portfolios are U.S. Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF) Equity, International Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF) Equity, Emerging Markets Exchange Traded Funds, and Global Multi-Asset Class Exchange Traded Funds. Balanced Accounts Cumberland can blend the strategies presented above to create a balanced mix of stocks and bonds. For further information about Cumberland Advisors, please visit our website at www.cumber.com.

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Seated (L to R): Maribel Echevarria, VP of Trading; Terri Pantalione, VP of Compliance; Daisy Lopez, VP of Operations. Standing (L to R): David Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer; John Mousseau, CFA, VP and Portfolio Manager; Matthew Forester, VP and Portfolio Manager; Bill Witherell, VP and Chief Global Economist; Sam Santiago, VP of Information Technology; Peter Demirali, VP and Portfolio Manager. Donna Sooy, VP of New Accounts, not pictured.

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Kotok May 11 06 by Global Interdependence Center - Issuu