Commodity Price Changes: Causes and Consequences Presentation at Food and Inflation: Truth and Consequences A Conference Sponsored by the GIC and the University of Memphis Memphis, Tennessee
Kevin L. Kliesen Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis February 8, 2012 Not an official document
Outline of Today’s Talk • Commodity Price Trends • What Drives Commodity Prices in the Short and Long Run? • Do Rising Commodity Prices Signal Rising Inflation?
Disclaimer
The views I will express are my own and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis or the Federal Reserve System.
• Motivation “It was noted that U.S. inflation had been influenced relatively more by commodity price fluctuations in recent years; because commodity prices reflect global economic conditions, U.S. inflation might be less affected by domestic factors and more linked to the global outlook than in the past.” Minutes of the Nov. 1-2, 2011 FOMC Meeting
• Commodity prices began to increase in 2002 S&P GSCI Commodity Price Indexes Jan. 1990 = 100 700 600
Energy
500
Industrial Metals
400
Prescious Metals Food
300
Livestock
200
Some commodity prices have risen by considerably more than others since 2002: Energy: Ind. Metals: Pr. Metals: Food: Livestock:
365% 178% 507% 161% 69%
100 0 1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
5
• Historically, commodity prices have declined relative to prices of all goods and services Ratio of Commodity Prices to Prices of All Goods and Services
The relative price of commodities is determined by supply/demand fundamentals.
Index, 1947=100 120 100 80
Is the last few years an anomaly or an emerging trend?
60 40 20 0 1947
1954
1961
1968
1975
1982
1989
1996
2003
SOURCE: Commodity Research Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis
2010 6
• Economic Fundamentals 1. Distinguishing between short-run shifts in demand and supply of commodities—often caused by unexpected events (“shocks”) 2. Long-run shifts in supply and demand typically caused by a change in fundamentals
• Possible Explanations for the Commodity Price Boom Since 2002 1. Transitory Developments? • A weaker dollar • Financialization of commodities • U.S. public policies
2. Longer-lasting Developments •
Strong growth in fast-growing emerging market economies (e.g., China)
• China benefited from an export boom . . . And imported a lot as well Chinese Merchandise Exports and Imports Billions of $US 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000
Imports Exports
Ocular econometrics suggests a trend break around 2002—just before China joined the WTO.
800
600 400 200 0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
9
• Rapidly rising living standards in the world’s most populous countries Changes in Real Per Capita GDP, Selected Countries Percent change, annual rates 14.0 12.4 12.0
1990-2000
9.5
10.0
2000-2010 8.0
6.0
2010-2016(F)
5.3
3.5
4.0 2.0
As a country’s living standards improve, so does their diet and their production of goods and services. The result: Increased demand for commodities.
0.0
Brazil
India
China
NOTE: Values in PPP terms; Source is International Monetary Fund
USA 10
• How Long Can the Commodity Price Boom Persist? – Emerging market economies grow rapidly by applying capital and technology to cheap labor. – But EMEs are fighting the “Iron Law of Convergence.” – Rising prices and improving technologies help to mitigate the rapid rise in commodity prices.
– Allowing market forces to allocate resources (via prices) will usually produce the most economically-efficient outcomes.
Do Rising Commodity Prices Signal Higher CPI Inflation? Accounting for the Facts 12
• Fact #1: The relative weight of food in the consumer basket continues to decline Food in the Consumer Expenditure Basket Relative weight in percent 17.0
Engel’s Law in action.
16.5
This trend parallels the trend we see with energy prices: The economy uses less energy per unit of GDP than, say, 25 years ago.
16.0 15.5 15.0 14.5 14.0 13.5 13.0 12.5 12.0
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 13
• Fact #2: Food price shocks are large relative to headline and core inflation movements CPI Inflation and Commodity Food Price Changes Percent change from 12 months earlier 80 60
CPI
Core CPI
Food
If you look real close, you might be able to detect some causality.
40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
14
• Fact #3: Energy price shocks appear to have become more important over the past 10 years Correlation Between Commodity Price Changes and Energy Price Changes (12-Mo. Percent changes) 0.7 0.6 0.5
Jan. 1983 to Dec. 2001
0.4 0.3 0.2
Jan. 2002 to Dec. 2011
0.1 0.0 -0.1 Industrial Metals
Precious Metals
Food
Livestock
Prior to 2002, the correlation between energy price changes and food prices was very small. The correlation between energy prices and livestock price inflation has declined modestly. 15
• Fact #4: Accounting for an apparent trend break in commodity prices S&P GSCI Commodity Price Index Jan. 1990 = 100 900 800 700 600 500 400 300
A broad index of commodity prices exhibited no trend from 1977 to late 2001. Since early 2002, prices have risen sharply, interrupted by the recession.
200 100 0 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
16
What do we learn from this table? 1. The correlation between headline and core inflation has declined markedly.
2. The opposite has occurred for commodity prices. 3. Energy and industrial materials appear to be driving the result. 17
What do we learn from this table? 1. The correlation between core inflation and commodity price changes has gone away over the past decade! 2. The same holds for changes in food commodity prices.
3. Changes in the dollar don’t seem to matter for core inflation. 18
To Conclude • The commodity price boom began just after the 2001 recession. • Changes in commodity prices are influence by a variety of factors—some of which are short-term in nature and some of which reflect structural changes. • It appears that a key factor explaining the commodity price boom was the rapid growth in China and other emerging market economies (demand factors). • Commodity prices appear to be reliable for predicting headline CPI inflation but not core inflation.
Questions?
20