After the Arab Spring – Gulf Countries Marvin Kaiser Dean Emeritus College of Liberal Arts and Sciences Portland Statement University January 15, 2012
Welcome & Background Reflection
WHO ARE WE TALKING ABOUT?
League of Arab States/Gulf Cooperating Council/North Africa – Maps (next slides) Heterogeneous Group Focus on Gulf Countries
MAPS
MAPS
HISTORIC AND CULTURAL CONTEXT
Bedouin Culture Islam – Koran/Sharia Law MAPS Majlis Economies
DEFINING ISSUES OF LAST 75 YEARS Transitions from colonial status/tribal territories Rise of nation states Change of economic status MAPS Increased access to education Changing role of social media – development of technology Advent of “Arab Spring”
WHERE GULF COUNTRIES ARE NOW !
Movement to knowledge-based economy Expanded educational institutions and programs Economic Growth and Standing, eg., Qatar GDP 2011 surge at 14.1%, KSA at 6.8% Renaissance of Arab and Islamic thought: a) science and technology b) research and development and c) the arts Media development, eg., Al-Jazerra (150m viewers internationally) Role of Women in education, business and civic life
MAPS
WHERE GULF COUNTRIES ARE NOW !
Civil Society
Majlis Political Participation
Retention of Tribal/family cultures Development of MAPS business friendly environments Freedom of Expression and Debate Examples from the Doha Debates
DOHA DEBATES: 2011/2012
This House believes Arab governments need to take urgent measures to protect religious minorities. MOTION PASSED by 58% to 42%
MAPS
This House believes marriage between close family members should be discouraged. MOTION PASSED by 81% to 19%
DOHA DEBATES: 2011/2012
This House believes women will be worse off after the Arab revolutions. MOTION REJECTED by 26% to 74%
MAPS
This House believes resistance to the Arab Spring is futile. MOTION PASSED by 73% to 27%
DOHA DEBATES: 2011/2012
This House believes that Arab revolutions will just produce different dictators. MOTION REJECTED by 26% to 74%
This House believes education is worthless without freedom of speech. MOTION PASSED by 53% to 47%
DOHA DEBATES: 2010/2011 яБо
This House would prefer money to free elections. MOTION REJECTED by 37% to 63%
THE FUTURE – CHALLENGES/ CONTRASTING VIEWPOINTS
One viewpoint
Very stable/don’t want to go Arab Spring route. Political participation, not democracy, is a better option for a society that is an extended part of a region wracked by chaos.
THE FUTURE – CHALLENGES/ CONTRASTING VIEWPOINTS
Contrasting viewpoint
Futile for leaders to resist change of Arab Spring The start of a long, uncertain path toward structural change throughout the Middle East in politics and in governance No free elections, but free market economies – economic over political reform is leaf out of the China model
THE FUTURE – CHALLENGES/ CONTRASTING VIEWPOINTS
Contrasting viewpoint (continued)
“Governments with treasure in their soil have it too easy; they are trust-fund states…easy money means a government does not have to tax its citizens. When a government taxes people it has to provide benefits in return, beginning with services, accountability, and good governance but ending up with liberty and representation. This reciprocal bargain – between taxation and representation – is what gives governments legitimacy in the modern world. If a government can get its revenues without forging any roots in society, it is a court, not a state, and its businessmen courtiers, not entrepreneurs.” Fareed Zakaria – The Future of Freedom: Illiberal democracy at home and abroad
GULF COUNTRIES BUSINESS AND TRADE OPPORTUNITIES
Government Sectors
Sovereign Funds – eg., Investment Authorities Oil and Gas – Upstream and Downstream Real Estate Infrastructure
Portland examples – CH2MHil
Life Sciences Technology
GULF COUNTRIES BUSINESS AND TRADE OPPORTUNITIES
Private Sectors – growing role in economy
Identified Areas of Growth
Oil and Gas Export/Import Manufacturing Construction Real Estate
GULF COUNTRIES BUSINESS AND TRADE OPPORTUNITIES
Examples of Business/Trade Participation:
Franchising with local partner Importing commodities and merchandise Business partnering with local individual Agent for commercial enterprise Product distributor
FACILITATION OF BUSINESS AND TRADE OPPORTUNITIES
KSA – SAGIA to facilitate establishing business enterprise Qatar – Ministry of Trade & Commerce
RECOMMENDATIONS
Know business conditions, ie., local demand, how business is done, local partner, structuring one’s presence in the country, appropriate communication protocols Establish relationships Commitment to doing business in the country Staying involved in the region
Recognize high barrier to entry
UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY IN PORTLAND/OREGON TO BUILD RELATIONSHIPS ď Ž
Develop industry relationships with and for Middle East students studying at local colleges and universities
THANK YOU ! ANY QUESTIONS?