After the Arab Spring – Gulf Countries

After the Arab Spring – Gulf Countries Marvin Kaiser Dean Emeritus College of Liberal Arts and Sciences Portland Statement University January 15, 2012

Welcome & Background Reflection

WHO ARE WE TALKING ABOUT? 

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League of Arab States/Gulf Cooperating Council/North Africa – Maps (next slides) Heterogeneous Group Focus on Gulf Countries

MAPS

MAPS

HISTORIC AND CULTURAL CONTEXT  

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Bedouin Culture Islam – Koran/Sharia Law MAPS Majlis Economies

DEFINING ISSUES OF LAST 75 YEARS  Transitions from colonial status/tribal territories  Rise of nation states  Change of economic status MAPS  Increased access to education  Changing role of social media – development of technology  Advent of “Arab Spring”

WHERE GULF COUNTRIES ARE NOW ! 

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Movement to knowledge-based economy Expanded educational institutions and programs Economic Growth and Standing, eg., Qatar GDP 2011 surge at 14.1%, KSA at 6.8% Renaissance of Arab and Islamic thought: a) science and technology b) research and development and c) the arts Media development, eg., Al-Jazerra (150m viewers internationally) Role of Women in education, business and civic life

MAPS

WHERE GULF COUNTRIES ARE NOW ! 

Civil Society  

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Majlis Political Participation

Retention of Tribal/family cultures Development of MAPS business friendly environments Freedom of Expression and Debate Examples from the Doha Debates

DOHA DEBATES: 2011/2012 

This House believes Arab governments need to take urgent measures to protect religious minorities.

MOTION PASSED by 58% to 42%

MAPS

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This House believes marriage between close family members should be discouraged.

MOTION PASSED by 81% to 19%

DOHA DEBATES: 2011/2012 

This House believes women will be worse off after the Arab revolutions.

MOTION REJECTED by 26% to 74%

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MAPS

This House believes resistance to the Arab Spring is futile.

MOTION PASSED by 73% to 27%

DOHA DEBATES: 2011/2012 

This House believes that Arab revolutions will just produce different dictators.

MOTION REJECTED by 26% to 74%

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This House believes education is worthless without freedom of speech.

MOTION PASSED by 53% to 47%

DOHA DEBATES: 2010/2011 яБо

This House would prefer money to free elections.

MOTION REJECTED by 37% to 63%

THE FUTURE – CHALLENGES/ CONTRASTING VIEWPOINTS 

One viewpoint  

Very stable/don’t want to go Arab Spring route.

Political participation, not democracy, is a better option for a society that is an extended part of a region wracked by chaos.

THE FUTURE – CHALLENGES/ CONTRASTING VIEWPOINTS 

Contrasting viewpoint  

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Futile for leaders to resist change of Arab Spring The start of a long, uncertain path toward structural change throughout the Middle East in politics and in governance No free elections, but free market economies – economic over political reform is leaf out of the China model

THE FUTURE – CHALLENGES/ CONTRASTING VIEWPOINTS 

Contrasting viewpoint (continued) 

“Governments with treasure in their soil have it too easy; they are trust-fund states…easy money means a government does not have to tax its citizens. When a government taxes people it has to provide benefits in return, beginning with services, accountability, and good governance but ending up with liberty and representation. This reciprocal bargain – between taxation and representation – is what gives governments legitimacy in the modern world. If a government can get its revenues without forging any roots in society, it is a court, not a state, and its businessmen courtiers, not entrepreneurs.”

Fareed Zakaria – The Future of Freedom: Illiberal democracy at home and abroad

GULF COUNTRIES BUSINESS AND TRADE OPPORTUNITIES 

Government Sectors    

Sovereign Funds – eg., Investment Authorities Oil and Gas – Upstream and Downstream Real Estate Infrastructure 

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Portland examples – CH2MHil

Life Sciences Technology

GULF COUNTRIES BUSINESS AND TRADE OPPORTUNITIES 

Private Sectors – growing role in economy 

Identified Areas of Growth    

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Oil and Gas Export/Import Manufacturing Construction Real Estate

GULF COUNTRIES BUSINESS AND TRADE OPPORTUNITIES 

Examples of Business/Trade Participation:  

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Franchising with local partner Importing commodities and merchandise Business partnering with local individual Agent for commercial enterprise Product distributor

FACILITATION OF BUSINESS AND TRADE OPPORTUNITIES 

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KSA – SAGIA to facilitate establishing business enterprise Qatar – Ministry of Trade & Commerce

RECOMMENDATIONS

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Know business conditions, ie., local demand, how business is done, local partner, structuring one’s presence in the country, appropriate communication protocols Establish relationships Commitment to doing business in the country Staying involved in the region

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Recognize high barrier to entry

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UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY IN PORTLAND/OREGON TO BUILD RELATIONSHIPS ď Ž

Develop industry relationships with and for Middle East students studying at local colleges and universities

THANK YOU !

ANY QUESTIONS?