Economics and Finance in a Two-Percent Economy

Economics and Finance in a Two-Percent Economy GIC—Madrid John E. Silvia, Chief Economist March 27, 2017

Where Are We Now?

Interest Rates

Inflation

Growth

Five benchmarks for good decision making

Profits

Source:

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

2

The Dollar

Wells Fargo vs. Consensus, Vote for Change

Expectations for the Future

 Sustained trend growth, no recession in the forecast  Employment—cyclical and structural change  Consumer solid—key support to growth How do we compare to consensus?

 Below consensus on housing starts and auto sales  Trade will be a drag on economic growth in the U.S.  Unsustainable long-run fiscal policy  Europe growth remains steady post-Brexit  China growth slower for 2017, 2018

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

3

Sustained Growth—The Anchoring Bias

U.S. Real GDP

Bars = CAGR

Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change 10%

10% GDP - CAGR: Q4 @ 1.9%

8%

GDP - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q4 @ 1.9%

6%

6% Forecast

4%

Trend growth at 2-2.5 percent in the year ahead. A more balanced composition of domestic growth should prevail, but trade will be a drag going forward.

4%

2%

2%

0%

0%

-2%

-2%

-4%

-4%

-6%

-6%

-8%

-8%

-10% 2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

8%

4

2012

2014

2016

2018

-10%

Supply-Side Challenges

GDP and Fed Funds “Long-Run� Expectations from the Fed

Over the past several years, the Fed has dialed-back it own estimates of potential GDP growth as have private-sector economists and the Congressional Budget Office Neutral Fed Funds Rate

Potential Growth

Long-Run Fed Funds Projections

Long-Run GDP Projections

3.0%

Summary of Economic Projections, Central Tendency Range

2.5%

5.0%

3.0%

5.0%

4.5%

4.5%

4.0%

4.0%

3.5%

3.5%

3.0%

3.0%

2.5%

2.5%

2.5%

2.0%

2.0%

1.5%

1.5%

Midpoint of Central Tendency: Mar @ 1.9% 1.0% Jun-2012

Summary of Economic Projections, Central Tendency Range

Jun-2013

Jun-2014

Jun-2015

Midpoint of Central Tendency: Mar @ 2.9% Jun-2016

1.0%

2.0% Jun-2012

Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

6

Jun-2013

Jun-2014

Jun-2015

Jun-2016

2.0%

Potential Growth—Little Help From Productivity

Nonfarm Labor Productivity

4.0%

Productivity growth has downshifted over the past cycle

Average Annual Percent Change in Output Per Hour Worked

3.5%

3.5%

3.0%

3.0%

2.5%

2.5%

2.0%

2.0%

1.5%

1.5%

1.0%

1.0%

0.5%

0.5%

0.0%

1948-1973

19741995

19962003

2004Q2 2016

Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

4.0%

7

20042007

20082010

2011Q4 2016

0.0%

Potential Growth—Little Help from Labor

Labor supply growth is slowing, particularly for prime-age workers. Labor force participation has improved but remains historically low.

Working Age Population

Labor Force Participation

Working Age Population Growth

Labor Force Participation Rate

Percentage Point Contribution to Population Age 16 and Older

Prime vs. Total, Seasonally Adjusted 3-MMA

3.0%

68%

85%

2.5%

2.5%

67%

84%

2.0%

2.0%

66%

83%

1.5%

1.5%

65%

82%

1.0%

64%

81%

0.5%

0.5%

63%

80%

0.0%

0.0%

62%

79%

-0.5%

61%

3.0%

1.0%

-0.5%

Forecast

Non-Prime Population (16-24 and 55+): 2016 @ 0.83% Prime-Age Population (25-54): 2016 @ 0.26%

-1.0%

50 54 58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98 02 06 10 14 18 22

78%

Prime Participation (Ages 25-54): Feb @ 81.6% (Right Axis) -1.0%

60%

Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

Labor Force Participation: Feb @ 62.9% (Left Axis)

8

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

77%

Production and Employment: Divergent Long-Run Trends

Production & Jobs in Manufacturing Sector Index, Jan 1979=100

240

Manufacturing output has more than doubled since the late 1970s, but employment has declined on a secular basis

240

200

200

160

160

120

120

80

80

40

40 Manufacturing Production: January @ 203.8 Manufacturing Employment: February @ 63.9

0

79

84

89

94

99

04

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

9

09

14

0

Workers’ Earnings

Average Hourly Earnings

vs. Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker; YoY % Chg. of 3-MMA

6%

Average hourly earnings growth has picked up modestly but remains limited by lower-skilled workers entering the workforce and Baby Boomers beginning to retire—the Atlanta Fed measure tracks individuals over time, eliminating compositional effects on wage growth

5%

5%

4%

4%

3%

3%

2%

2%

1%

0%

1%

Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker: Jan @ 3.2% Average Hourly Earnings (Prod. & Supervisory): Feb @ 2.5% Average Hourly Earnings (Total Private): Feb @ 2.7% 97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

6%

10

15

17

0%

Personal Income Gains: Disparity

Income Growth During Economic Recoveries Percent Change 6 Years After Recession End, Before-Tax Income

Income growth has finally begun to turn around but still lags prior recoveries

25%

25%

20%

20%

15%

15%

10%

10%

5%

5%

0%

-5%

Avg of Prior 2 Recoveries 2009-2015 Lowest Quintile

Second Quintile

Middle Quintile

Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

11

Fourth Quintile

Highest Quintile

0%

-5%

Divergence in Commercial Real Estate

Property Prices: CBD, Suburbs Differ

Commercial Property Price Index Index

300

250

High valuations have caught the Fed’s attention

250

200

200

150

150

100

100

50

05

06

07

08

09

Source: RCA and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

300

Apartment: Jan @ 278.2 Retail: Jan @ 179.6 Industrial: Jan @ 184.5 Office - CBD: Jan @ 275.0 Office - Suburban: Jan @ 150.6

13

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

50

Property Prices: Major/Non-Major Market Splits

Commercial Property Price Index Index 2000 = 100, All Property Types

300

Valuations have grown the fastest in major markets

250

250

200

200

150

150

100

100

50

05

06

07

08

09

Source: RCA and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

300

Major Markets: Jan @ 267.3 Non-Major Markets: Jan @ 179.2

14

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

50

Unsustainable Fiscal Policy

Federal Fiscal Policy

The composition of federal spending has shifted dramatically.

The CBO projects that the debt-to-GDP ratio will surpass 88 percent by 2027.

Composition of Federal Spending

Federal Debt Continues to Rise

Federal Spending

U.S. Debt Held By The Public

Percent of Total

Discretionary 1970

Mandatory

100%

Net Interest

62%

31%

32%

8%

62%

6%

Total Spending 2015: 21% GDP

2050

19%

60%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Source: Congressional Budget Office and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

90%

90%

80%

80%

70%

70%

60%

60%

50%

50%

40%

40%

30%

30%

20% 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024

20%

21%

Total Spending 2046: 28% of GDP 0%

100%

Baseline Debt: 2027 @ 88.9%

Total Spending 1970: 19% of GDP

2015

CBO Baseline Projections Begin in 2017, Percent of GDP

16

Federal Fiscal Policy: Tax Cuts for Taxpayers

Corporate income tax receipts accounted for less than 10 percent of federal revenues in FY 2016. The top income quintile pays an outsized share of federal taxes.

Composition of Federal Revenues

Federal Taxes Paid by Income Quintile

Composition of Federal Revenue (FY 2016)

Share of Federal Taxes

Other 9.4%

80%

2013

Corporate Income Taxes 9.2%

Individual Income Taxes 47.4%

Payroll Taxes 34.0%

70%

70%

60%

60%

50%

50%

40%

40%

30%

30%

20%

20%

10%

10%

0%

Source: Congressional Budget Office and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

By Before-Tax Income Group

80%

17

Lowest Quintile

Second Quintile

Middle Quintile

Fourth Quintile

Highest Quintile

0%

The Policy Outlook

Expectations for the Future

 Affordable Care Act repeal will be the top priority.

Committing to replacing ACA would likely slow down the process, delaying other legislative priorities.

 Some form of corporate/individual income tax cuts/reforms are likely. Deficit-neutrality will likely be the key challenge, as will progressivity.

Key Issues to Watch in the 115th Congress

• Other policy areas, such as infrastructure spending, immigration reform and regulatory changes, are likely to play out over time and may take longer than markets and some commentators currently anticipate. The path forward on trade remains highly uncertain.

• Consider that in 2009 Democrats controlled the House, the White House and had a supermajority in the Senate yet failed to enact a highly-sought cap-and-trade bill.

• Political capital, like its financial cousin, is a finite resource.

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

18

The Policy Outlook

Corporate Tax Reform—Winners and Losers*

Corporate Tax Reform—As Proposed by House Republicans—Summary

Who is positioned to benefit?  High cash taxpayers  Cash rich and capital intensive industries  Domestic producers  Issuers with overseas cash/earnings  Companies with low cost, long-term debt  Sectors:  IG: Technology, Pharmaceuticals, E&P & Metals  HY: Technology, Food & Beverage, Services, Telecom Who is at risk?

• Low cash taxpayers • Cash and capital light companies • Issuers with high cost, short-term debt • Debt-financed payouts to equity holders • Sectors: • IG: Retail, Autos, Utilities (Hold Co.) • HY: Retail, Consumer Products *Bory et. al. (February 2017). “Credit Connections: Corporate Tax Reform—Speculation on Speculation.” Wells Fargo Credit Strategy.

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

19

Inflation & Interest Rates

Core Interest InflationInflation Rates

Yield Curve

Key Drivers

Growth The Dollar

Profits Wage-Price Spiral

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

Market Expectations

20

Inflation: Rising Toward the Two Percent Target

PCE Deflator vs. Core PCE Deflator Year-over-Year Percent Change

5%

Inflation is approaching the FOMC’s target—average less than two percent since 1992

4%

4%

3%

3%

2%

2%

1%

1%

0%

0%

-1%

-2%

-1%

PCE Deflator: Jan @ 1.9% "Core" PCE Deflator: Jan @ 1.7% FOMC's 2.0% Inflation Target 92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

5%

21

08

10

12

14

16

-2%

Inflation: A Divide in Goods vs. Services

Core Goods vs. Core Services CPI Year-over-Year Percent Change

7%

7% Core Services CPI: Feb @ 3.1%

6%

Inflation for services has been much firmer than for commodities

Core Goods CPI: Feb @ -0.5%

5%

5%

4%

4%

3%

3%

2%

2%

1%

1%

0%

0%

-1%

-1%

-2%

-2%

-3%

88

90

92

94

96

98

00

02

Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

6%

22

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

-3%

Inflation Expectations

Fed's 5-Year Five Years Forward 2.20%

2.20% U.S. Presidential Election

2.00%

The jump in inflation expectations was sharp and sustained

2.00%

1.80%

1.80%

1.60%

1.60%

1.40%

1.40%

1.20%

1.20%

1.00%

1.00% Fed's 5-Year Five Years Forward: Mar-10 @ 1.99%

0.80% May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Source: Bloomberg LP and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

23

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

0.80%

Interest Rate Path

Pace of Policy Firming: We Say Three Hikes in 2017

Appropriate Pace of Policy Firming 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5%

After several years of downward revisions, the FOMC modestly adjusted the dots up at the December meeting

Target Federal Funds Rate at Year-End

4.5% 4.0% 3.5%

3.0%

3.0%

2.5%

2.5%

2.0%

2.0%

1.5%

1.5%

1.0%

1.0%

0.5%

0.5%

0.0%

2017

2018

2019

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Bloomberg LP and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

5.0%

March 2017 Median Response December 2016 Median Response September 2016 Median Response December 2015 Median Response Futures Market: March 20

25

Longer Run

0.0%

Inflation and the Fed Funds Rate

PCE Deflator and the Federal Funds Rate Year-over-Year Percent Change, Target Rate

2.5%

Inflation is gaining momentum.

Fed funds rate to follow?

Declining real rates.

Federal Funds Target Rate: Mar @ 1.00% PCE Deflator: Jan @ 1.89%

2.0%

2.0%

1.5%

1.5%

1.0%

1.0%

0.5%

0.5%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.5% Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17

Source: Federal Reserve Board, U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

2.5%

26

-0.5%

Yield Curve

Yield Curve Spread Basis Points

350 300

The yield curve flattened after the Taper Tantrum in 2013 but steepened post-election. We expect a flatter yield curve as 2017 progresses.

10Y - 2Y: Mar @ 119 bps

300

2Y - FFR: Mar @ 64 bps

250

250

200

200

150

150

100

100

50

50

0

0

-50

Taper Tantrum

-100

-50 -100

-150

-150

-200 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

-200

Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

350

27

Business Lending, Profits and the U.S. Dollar

Cracks in Bank Lending Market?

Noncurrent Loan Rates

Percent of Loans 90 Days or More Past Due or in Nonaccrual Status

8%

The noncurrent loan rate for commercial & industrial loans increased for six consecutive quarters but has since leveled off

6%

6%

4%

4%

2%

2%

0%

84

86

88

90

92

94

Source: FDIC and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

8%

Total Loans & Leases: Q4 @ 1.4% Real Estate: Q4 @ 2.0% C&I Loans: Q4 @ 1.3%

29

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

0%

Cracks in Bank Lending Market?

C&I Noncurrent Loan Rates by Region

Percent of Loans 90 Days or More Past Due or in Nonaccrual Status

2.5%

Delinquencies are up across the nation, but particularly in energy-centric districts

2.5%

Q4 2015 Q4 2016

2.0%

2.0%

1.5%

1.5%

1.0%

1.0%

0.5%

0.5%

0.0%

All

New York

Atlanta

Source: FDIC and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

30

Chicago

Kansas City

Dallas

San Francisco

0.0%

Opportunity in Bank Lending Market?

U.S. Commercial Bank Loan-to-Deposit Ratio

Loan-to-deposit ratios are historically low

125%

125%

100%

100%

75%

75%

50%

50% Large Bank LDR: Feb @ 73.6% Small Bank LDR: Feb @ 84.9%

25%

90

92

94

96

98

00

02

04

Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

31

06

08

10

12

14

16

25%

S&P Revenues Earned Abroad

Percent of S&P Revenues Earned Abroad

By Sector, Q4 2016

Financials

4% 25%

Consumer Discretionary

26%

Consumer Staples

IT and Materials earn the highest share of their revenues abroad, making those industries the most at risk to the stronger dollar—Invoicing in dollars?

31%

Industrials

31%

Energy

32%

Total

40%

Health Care

48%

Materials

53%

Information Technology 0%

10%

Source: Bloomberg LP and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

32

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

S&P 500 P/E Ratio

S&P 500 P/E Ratio

The S&P 500 P/E ratio has risen above its long-run average.

Deviations from the average can be persistent.

35

35

30

30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

0

54

58

62

66

70

74

78

Source: Bloomberg LP and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

5

P/E Ratio: Q4 @ 20.6 Long-Run Average: 1954-Present

33

82

86

90

94

98

02

06

10

14

0

Corporate Profit Growth

Corporate Profits Before Taxes

40%

Corporate profit growth has slowed recently—typical mid- to late-cycle slowdown

4-Quarter Moving Average, Year-over-Year Percent Change

40%

30%

30%

20%

20%

10%

10%

0%

0%

-10%

-10%

-20%

-20% Corporate Profits: Q3 @ -5.1%

-30%

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

34

-30%

Corporate Profit Margins

Nonfinancial Domestic Profits

16%

Corporate profits as a share of gross value added remains historically high but is now past its peak

Share of Gross Value Added of Nonfinancial Corporations

16%

14%

14%

12%

12%

10%

10%

8%

8%

6%

6%

4%

4%

2%

United States: Q3 @ 13.3%

2%

1980-2015 Average: 11.2% 0%

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

35

0%

Dollar Appreciation: Bias Upward

Trade Weighted Dollar Major Curency Index, 1973 = 100

115

115

110

110

105

Forecast

100

Dollar appreciation should be more modest moving forward.

Interventions from other countries (China, Mexico) limit dollar gains.

100

95

95

90

90

85

85

80

80

75

75

70 65 2000

70

Trade Weighted Dollar: Q4 @ 95.8 2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

105

36

2012

2014

2016

2018

65

Dollar Appreciation: Bias Upward

U.S. Dollar Appreciation vs. Top Export Destinations Top 7 Trading Partners, Year-over-Year Percent Change

Canada

Mar-17

1.5%

Mexico

11.0%

China

The dollar has appreciated against most of our large trading partners over the past year, but movements have varied significantly

6.1%

Japan

1.1%

U.S. Exports

U.K.

16.4%

Germany

Less

4.9%

South Korea

-2.8%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

More

37

10%

15%

20%

25%

Dollar Appreciation: Bias Upward

USD Index and IMM Positioning $100

105 Net Positions, USD Billions (Right Axis) Dollar Index (Left Axis)

Bullish sentiment on the dollar has eased a bit from its postelection peak

100

$80

95

$60

90

$40

85

$20

80

$0

75 2014

2015

Source: Bloomberg LP and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

38

2016

2017

-$20

International Outlook

Sovereign Yields

10-Year Government Bond Yields Percent

5%

Japan: Mar-16 @ 0.1% United States: Mar-16 @ 2.5% Germany: Mar-16 @ 0.4% United Kingdom: Mar-16 @ 1.2%

4%

Government bond yields have declined across the globe but have jumped since the election

4%

3%

3%

2%

2%

1%

1%

0%

0%

-1%

10

11

12

13

14

Source: Federal Reserve Board, IHS Global Insight and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

5%

40

15

16

17

-1%

Negative Rates

3-Month Interbank Offered Rates 3.00%

Eurozone: Mar-17 @ -0.33% Denmark: Mar-17 @ -0.25% Sweden: Mar-17 @ -0.49% Switzerland: Mar-17 @ -0.73%

2.50% 2.00%

But short-term rates remain firmly negative

2.50% 2.00%

1.50%

1.50%

1.00%

1.00%

0.50%

0.50%

0.00%

0.00%

-0.50%

-0.50%

-1.00%

-1.00%

-1.50% 2012

-1.50%

2013

2014

Source: Bloomberg LP and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

3.00%

41

2015

2016

2017

Foreign Purchases of U.S. Securities

Foreign Private Purchases of U.S. Securities 12-Month Moving Sum, Billions of Dollars

$600

$600

$500

$500

$400

$400

Capital flows and asset allocation by global investors play a role in rate determinations

$300

$300

$200

$200

$100

$100

Less appetite for Treasuries growing appetite for Agencies

$0

$0

-$100 -$200 -$300

-$100

Treasury: Jan @ $26.4 Billion Equity: Jan @ -$5.3 Billion Agency: Jan @ $246.8 Billion Corporate: Jan @ $115.9 Billion 04

05

06

07

08

09

10

-$200

11

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

42

12

13

14

15

16

17

-$300

ECB Balance Sheet

ECB Balance Sheet Trillions of Euros

€4.0

€4.0 ECB Balance Sheet: Feb @ €3.81T

The ECB’s QE program should remain operational through at least March 2017

€3.5

€3.5

€3.0

€3.0

€2.5

€2.5

€2.0

€2.0

€1.5

€1.5

€1.0

€1.0

€0.5

€0.5

€0.0

€0.0

00

01

03

05

07

Source: IHS Global Insight and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

43

09

11

13

15

Global Exports

Global Export Volumes Year-over-Year Percent Change

25%

Global trade has slowed over the past year

20%

20%

15%

15%

10%

10%

5%

5%

0%

0%

-5%

-5%

-10%

-10%

-15%

-15% Real Exports: Dec @ 3.1%

-20% -25%

-20%

Average 1992-Present: 5.1% 92

94

96

98

00

02

Source: IHS Global Insight and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

25%

44

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

-25%

International Trade

U.S. Trade Balances In Billions of Dollars

$200B

$200B $0B

$0B

The U.S. trade balance with Canada and Mexico is modest compared to the rest of the world—particularly China

-$200B

-$200B

-$400B

-$400B

-$600B

-$600B

-$800B

-$800B Trade Balance with Canada: 2015 @ $-15.2B Trade Balance with Mexico: 2015 @ $-58.4B Trade Balance with World: 2015 @ $-737.1B

-$1000B -$1200B

93

95

97

99

01

03

05

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

45

07

09

11

-$1000B

13

15

-$1200B

Global GDP Growth

Real Global GDP Growth

Year-over-Year Percent Change, PPP Weights

7.5%

7.5%

6.0%

6.0%

2016 will likely mark the weakest year for global economy since 2009, but we see gradual improvement in coming years OECD’s updated forecast: 3.3% in 2017 3.6% in 2018

Period Average 4.5%

WF Forecast

3.0%

3.0%

1.5%

1.5%

0.0%

0.0%

-1.5%

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Source: International Monetary Fund and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

4.5%

46

2005

2010

2015

-1.5%

Five Takeaways

Growth

Inflation

Interest Rates

 Continued moderate growth led by domestic consumer

 Rising, but is the pace slow enough to delay additional Fed moves?

 Rising short rates, but relatively flat long rates as capital flows favor the U.S.

Dollar

 Stronger dollar as rates and growth favor U.S.

Profits

 A late cycle slowdown

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

47

U.S. Forecast

Wells Fargo U.S. Economic Forecast q12017

Actual 2016

2017

Forecast 2017

2018

2014

Actual 2015

2016

Forecast 2017 2018

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

0.8

1.4

3.5

1.9

1.1

2.6

2.5

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.4

2.6

1.6

2.1

2.5

1.6

4.3

3.0

3.0

2.2

2.7

2.4

2.2

2.7

2.9

3.0

2.9

2.9

3.2

2.7

2.7

2.7

-3.4

1.0

1.4

1.3

5.2

4.4

4.4

4.7

4.4

4.9

4.8

4.6

6.0

2.1

-0.5

3.5

4.6

Equipment

-9.5

-2.9

-4.5

1.9

6.6

4.2

3.9

4.3

3.8

4.3

4.2

3.7

5.4

3.5

-2.9

2.7

4.1

Intellectual Property Products

3.8

9.0

3.2

4.5

3.7

4.5

4.7

5.0

5.1

4.8

4.7

4.5

3.9

4.8

4.9

4.5

4.8

Structures

5.6

Real Gross Domestic Product Personal Consumption

1

Business Fixed Investment

0.1

-2.1

12.0

-4.5

4.7

4.9

5.2

5.5

6.0

6.3

6.5

6.7

10.3

-4.4

-3.0

3.5

Residential Construction

7.8

-7.8

-4.1

9.6

9.2

6.7

6.5

6.3

5.8

5.6

5.4

5.4

3.5

11.7

4.9

5.4

5.9

Government Purchases

1.6

-1.7

0.8

0.3

-0.6

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.8

1.8

1.5

1.5

-0.9

1.8

0.8

0.4

1.6

Net Exports Inventories

2 2

Nonfarm Payroll Change

3

Unemployment Rate Consumer Price Index

4

Quarter-End Interest Rates 5 Federal Funds Target Rate Conventional Mortgage Rate

0.0

0.2

0.9

-1.7

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.4

-0.5

-0.6

-0.5

-0.5

-0.1

-0.7

-0.1

-0.5

-0.5

-0.4

-1.2

0.5

0.9

-0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

-0.1

0.2

-0.4

0.2

0.0

196

164

239

148

213

160

155

150

150

145

145

140

250

226

187

169

145

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.4

6.2

5.3

4.9

4.7

4.5

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.8

2.7

2.6

2.8

2.7

2.4

2.6

2.6

2.6

1.6

0.1

1.3

2.7

2.6

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.25

1.50

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

0.25

0.27

0.52

1.25

1.88

3.69

3.57

3.46

4.20

4.30

4.36

4.41

4.44

4.46

4.48

4.55

4.62

4.17

3.85

3.65

4.38

4.53

2 Year Note

0.73

0.58

0.77

1.20

1.34

1.66

1.75

1.93

2.02

2.11

2.26

2.41

0.46

0.69

0.83

1.67

2.20

10 Year Note

1.78

1.49

1.60

2.45

2.55

2.62

2.68

2.72

2.75

2.78

2.86

2.94

2.54

2.14

1.84

2.64

2.83

Forecast as of: March 15, 2017 1

C ompound Annual Growth Rate Quarter-over-Quarter

2

Percentage Point C ontribution to GDP

4

Year-over-Year Percentage C hange

5

Annual Numbers Represent Averages

3

Average Monthly C hange

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor, Federal Reserve Board, Freddie Mac and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

48

International Forecast

Wells Fargo International Economic Forecast (Year-over-Year Percent C hange)

GDP

CPI

2016

2017

2018

2016

2017

2018

Global (PPP Weights) Global (Market Exchange Rates)

3.0% 2.7%

3.1% 2.9%

3.3% 3.1%

3.1% 3.1%

3.5% 3.5%

3.7% 3.7%

Advanced Economies1 United States Eurozone United Kingdom Japan Korea Canada

1.8% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.0% 2.7% 1.4%

2.0% 2.1% 1.8% 1.8% 1.1% 2.5% 2.1%

2.3% 2.5% 2.0% 1.8% 0.9% 2.6% 1.9%

0.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.7% -0.1% 1.0% 1.4%

2.2% 2.7% 1.7% 2.3% 0.6% 2.1% 1.8%

2.1% 2.6% 1.8% 2.2% 0.9% 1.7% 2.0%

Developing Economies1 China India2 Mexico Brazil Russia

4.2% 6.7% 7.8% 2.3% -3.6% -0.2%

4.1% 6.3% 7.0% -1.0% 0.7% 1.4%

4.3% 5.8% 7.0% 1.6% 2.7% 2.1%

5.5% 2.0% 5.0% 2.8% 8.7% 7.1%

4.8% 1.5% 4.1% 6.6% 4.9% 4.4%

5.3% 2.0% 5.5% 6.1% 5.5% 4.5%

Forecast as of: March 15, 2017 1

Aggregated Using PPP Weights

2

Forecasts Refer to Fiscal Year

Source: International Monetary Fund and Wells Fargo Securities

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

49

Appendix

Wells Fargo Economics Group Publications

Recent Special Commentary Date

Title

Authors

U.S. Macro March-09 March-07 March-06 February-28 February-27

Till Debt Do Us Part: How Leveraged Is the Typical Boomer?

Boomer Balance Sheets: Nothing Great about That Recession FOMC Update: Decision in a Data/Policy Fog Boom or Bust? The Baby Boomers in Their Golden Years The Girl with the Draggin' W-2

March-09 March-07 March-03 March-01 February-21

Georgia Labor Market Update: January 2017 Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages: Q3 2016 California's Unemployment Rate Declines to 5.1 Percent Regional Variance in Homeownership Arizona Economic Outlook: February 2017

Vitner, Feik & Batcheller Vitner & Feik Vitner Vitner & Batcheller Vitner & Feik

Global Econom y Brazilian Economy Shrinks in 2016 Where Does China Have Trade Leverage Over America?

Weak Swiss GDP Growth Fails to Spur Inflation Consumer Spending Lifted Canadian GDP Yet Again in Q4 Border Adjustment Tax: Which Countries Would Feel it Most

Alemรกn Bryson Bryson & Pershing Quinlan Bryson & Pershing

March-08 March-01 February-22 February-15 February-08

Interest Rates/Credit Market FDIC Quarterly Points to Healthy Turn in Credit Markets Household Borrowing Accelerate at Year-End Credit and Growth: A Partnership Not Opposition Late-Cycle Signal: Tighter Consumer Credit Standards Q1 2017 Net Treasury Issuance Forecast Update

Silvia Silvia Silvia Silvia Silvia

March-01 February-22 February-14 February-08 January-11

Real Estate Regional Variance in Homeownership CRE Credit: Fed Concerns, Tighter Standards & Less Demand Housing Continues to Move Toward a New Equilibrium Commercial Real Estate Chartbook: Q4 2017 Private Nonresidential Construction Outlook

Vitner & Batcheller Silvia & Batcheller Vitner & Batcheller Khan & Causey Khan

Silvia, House & Pugliese Silvia, House & Pugliese Silvia Silvia, House & Pugliese Quinlan, Batcheller & House

U.S. Regional

To join any of our research distribution lists please visit our website: http://www.wellsfargo.com/ economics

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

March-08 March-06 March-02 March-02 March-01

51

& Pugliese & Pugliese & Batcheller & Brown

Wells Fargo Securities Economics Group Global Head of Research and Economics

Economists

……

Michael A. Brown, Economist

michael.a.brown@wellsfargo.com

Jamie Feik, Economist

Chief Economist John E. Silvia

sarah.house@wellsfargo.com

Sarah House, Economist

Diane Schumaker-Krieg ………………… ….diane.schumaker@wellsfargo.com Global Head of Research & Economics

jamie.feik@wellsfargo.com

Erik Nelson, Currency Strategist

erik.f.nelson@wellsfargo.com

john.silvia@wellsfargo.com Economic Analysts

Senior Economists Mark Vitner, Senior Economist

mark.vitner@wellsfargo.com

Jay H. Bryson, Global Economist

…jay.bryson@wellsfargo.com

Sam Bullard, Senior Economist

sam.bullard@wellsfargo.com

Nick Bennenbroek, Currency Strategist Anika R. Khan, Senior Economist Eugenio J. Alemán, Senior Economist

misa.n.batcheller@wellsfargo.com

Michael Pugliese, Economic Analyst

michael.d.pugliese@wellsfargo.com

Julianne Causey, Economic Analyst

julianne.causey@wellsfargo.com

E. Harry Pershing, Economic Analyst

nicholas.bennenbroek@wellsfargo.com

edward.h.pershing@wellsfargo.com

anika.khan@wellsfargo.com eugenio.j.aleman@wellsfargo.com

Azhar Iqbal, Econometrician

azhar.iqbal@wellsfargo.com

Tim Quinlan, Senior Economist

tim.quinlan@wellsfargo.com

Eric J. Viloria, Currency Strategist

Misa Batcheller, Economic Analyst

Administrative Assistants

eric.viloria@wellsfargo.com

Donna LaFleur, Executive Assistant

donna.lafleur@wellsfargo.com

Dawne Howes, Administrative Assistant

dawne.howes@wellsfargo.com

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Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

52