Economic Outlook: Cyclical Recovery, Structural Challenges

Economic Outlook: Cyclical Recovery, Structural Challenges Jackson Hole, Wyoming John E. Silvia, Chief Economist July 24, 2012

Where Are We Now?

Interest Rates

Inflation

Growth

Five benchmarks for good decision making

Profits

Source:

Economics

2

The Dollar

Wells Fargo vs. Consensus

Expectations for the Future

 Sustained below-trend growth

 Still cautious on the consumer

How do we differ from consensus?

 Still cautious on housing

 State and local governments—still restructuring

 Employment—cyclical and structural change

Economics

3

Economic Landscape

Current Economic Conditions

 Domestic Economic Conditions  Soft Patch or Recession?  Inflation  Unemployment and Employment

Where should we focus?

 Europe  Will there be a resolution?  How does it affect the U.S. domestic economy?

 Elections and the Aftermath  What do the various win/lose possibilities mean for policy?  Fiscal Cliff

Economics

4

What We Get Versus What We Expect

U.S. Real GDP Bars = CAGR

Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change

10%

10% GDP - CAGR: Q1 @ 1.9%

8%

GDP - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q1 @ 2.0%

6%

6% Forecast

4%

Sustained recovery in 2012, but still below historical experience

4%

2%

2%

0%

0%

-2%

-2%

-4%

-4%

-6%

-6%

-8%

-8%

-10%

-10% 2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics

8%

5

2010

2012

Small Businesses

Small Business Optimism Overall Index 1986 = 100

Small Businesses: A full recovery in small business optimism is still distant

110

110

105

105

100

100

95

95

90

90

85

85

Small Business Optimism: Jun @ 91.4 80

80 87

89

91

93

95

97

99

01

03

05

Source: National Federation of Independent Businesses and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics

6

07

09

11

Manufacturing

ISM Manufacturing Composite Index Diffusion Index

Large, Global Businesses: Slowdown in manufacturing

65

65

60

60

55

55

50

50

45

45

40

40

35

35

ISM Manufacturing Index: Jun @ 49.7 12-Month Moving Average: Jun @ 52.6

30

30 87

89

91

93

95

97

99

01

03

Source: Institute for Supply Management and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics

7

05

07

09

11

Initial Unemployment Claims: Cyclical

Initial Claims for Unemployment Seasonally Adjusted, In Thousands

700

700 Year-over-Year Percent Change: Jul-7 @ -14.6% Initial Claims: Jul-7 @ 350.0 Thousand 4-Week Moving Average: Jul-7 @ 376.5 Thousand 52-Week Moving Average: Jul-7 @ 386.0 Thousand

650 600

Signaling continued, moderate job gains ahead

650 600

550

550

500

500

450

450

400

400

350

350

300

300

250

250 86

88

90

92

94

96

98

00

Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics

8

02

04

06

08

10

12

Employment: Structural

Employment-Population Ratio 16 Years and Over, Seasonally Adjusted

Structural Change: A much lower base to support growth and spending

65

65

64

64

63

63

62

62

61

61

60

60

59

59

58

58 Employment-Population Ratio: Jun @ 58.6

57

57 86

88

90

92

94

96

98

00

Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics

9

02

04

06

08

10

12

Consumer Spending

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Bars = CAGR

Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change

8.0%

8.0%

6.0%

6.0% Forecast

4.0%

Subpar recovery suggests slower consumer spending and lower state sales tax revenues

4.0%

2.0%

2.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-2.0%

-2.0%

-4.0%

-4.0%

-6.0%

-6.0%

PCE - CAGR: Q1 @ 2.5% PCE - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q1 @ 1.7%

-8.0% 2000

-8.0% 2002

2004

2006

2008

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics

10

2010

2012

Household Finances: Rebalancing Debt Exposure

Household Debt Service Ratio As a Percent of Disposable Personal Income

Debt service has returned to more sustainable rates

14.5%

14.5%

14.0%

14.0%

13.5%

13.5%

13.0%

13.0%

12.5%

12.5%

12.0%

12.0%

11.5%

11.5%

11.0%

11.0%

10.5%

10.5% DSR: Q1 @ 11.0%

10.0%

10.0% 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics

11

Income Growth

Income Growth by Quintile Percent Change from 1984 to 2010, After-Tax Income

After-tax income has increased the most for the lowest and highest income households since the mid-1980s

250%

250%

200%

200%

150%

150%

100%

100%

50%

50%

0%

0% Lowest 20 percent

Second 20 percent

Third 20 percent

Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics

12

Fourth 20 percent

Highest 20 percent

New Orders

Nondefense Capital Goods Orders, Ex-Aircraft Series are 3-Month Moving Averages

Signs of life appeared early in capital goods orders窶馬ow the slowdown

60%

60%

50%

50%

40%

40%

30%

30%

20%

20%

10%

10%

0%

0%

-10%

-10%

-20%

-20%

-30%

-30%

-40% -50%

-60% 1993

-40% 3-Month Annual Rate: May @ -7.4%

-60% 1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics

-50%

Year-over-Year Percent Change: May @ 2.8%

13

2007

2009

2011

Housing

Housing Starts Millions of Units 2.4

2.4

2.1

2.1

1.8

1.8

1.5

Structural Challenge: What is the new sustainable pace?

Forecast

1.2

1.2

0.9

0.9

0.6

0.6

0.3

0.3

0.0

0.0 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics

1.5

14

Home Prices: Barrier to Recovery

Median New Minus Existing Sale Price In Thousands, Single-Family $70

$70 12-Month Moving Average: May @ $60,925

Average From 1997 to 2006 = $18,705

$60

The high inventory of discounted existing homes has led to a large price premium for new homes

$60

$50

$50

$40

$40

$30

$30

$20

$20

$10

$10 97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, National Association of Realtors and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics

15

12

Housing Demographics

Median Home Size vs. Average Household Size Square Feet; Number of Persons

Secular Shift?

Households are living in smaller homes with more people since the recession, but longer-term trends may win out

2,400

2.80

2,200

2.75

2,000

2.70

1,800

2.65

1,600

2.60

1,400

2.55 Median Square Footage: 2011 @ 2,235 (Left Axis) Number of Persons per Household: 2011 @ 2.58 (Right Axis)

1,200

2.50 80

84

88

92

96

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics

16

00

04

08

Housing

Negative Equity Mortgages - By State Percent of Mortgages Outstanding Oregon

20.2

Washington

20.6

Colorado

20.7

Utah

21.2

New Hampshire

21.7

Virginia

22.3

Rhode Island

Negative equity in homes has contributed to foreclosures and reduced labor mobility

As of Q1 2012

23.3

Ohio

24.6

Maryland

24.8

Idaho

26.3

Illinois

28.0

California

30.5

Michigan

35.6

Georgia

37.2

Arizona

43.4

Florida

45.1

Nevada

61.2

US

23.7 0%

10%

20%

Source: CoreLogic and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics

17

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Commercial Real Estate

Commercial Real Estate Vacancy Rates Percent 24%

20%

The recovery has been uneven across property types

24% Office Vacancy Rate: Q2 @ 17.2% Industrial Vacancy Rate: Q1 @ 8.9% Retail Vacancy Rate: Q2 @ 10.8% Apartment Vacancy Rate: Q2 @ 4.7%

16%

16%

12%

12%

8%

8%

4%

4%

0% 1994

0% 1996

1998

2000

2002

Source: Reis, Inc., PPR and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics

20%

18

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

Inflation & Interest Rates

Core Monetary InflationInflation Policy

Yield Curve

Key Drivers

Growth Real Interest Rates

Profits Wage-Price Spiral

Economics

Market Expectations

19

Interest Rates

The Dollar

Inflation: Persistent Issue

U.S. Consumer Price Index Both Series are 3-Month Moving Averages

Consumer price growth should not pose a large threat to Federal Reserve policy in 2012

9%

9%

6%

6%

3%

3%

0%

0%

-3%

-3%

-6%

-6%

-9%

-9%

CPI 3-Month Annual Rate: Jun @ 0.8% CPI Year-over-Year: Jun @ 1.9%

-12%

-12% 92

94

96

98

00

02

Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics

20

04

06

08

10

12

Impact of Gasoline Prices

Gasoline Consumption and Disposable Income Motor Vehicle & Other Fuels as a % of Disposable Personal Income

Despite the recent decline, gas prices as a share of disposable income remains historically high

4.5%

4.5%

4.0%

4.0%

3.5%

3.5%

3.0%

3.0%

2.5%

2.5%

2.0%

2.0%

1.5%

1.5% Percent of Disposable Income: May @ 3.3%

1.0%

1.0% 90

92

94

96

98

00

02

04

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics

21

06

08

10

12

Regional Impact of Rising Gasoline Prices Gasoline Expenditures as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income – 2010

4.06%

3.80% 5.01%

5.03%

4.92% 5.30% 5.66%

4.36%

4.66% 4.78%

4.61%

4.95%

4.39%

4.58% 3.93% 3.40%

4.44%

4.69%

4.82%

4.14%

5.35%

3.38%

4.77% 3.69% 5.58% 5.86% 4.06% 5.36% 6.28%

5.72%

6.64%

5.16%

Large Impact Moderate Impact Low Impact Lowest Impact

22

5.34%

5.36%

4.91%

Greatest Impact

Economics

4.06%

5.66%

6.65% Gasoline Expenditures as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income

2.76%

5.26%

4.70%

6.32% 5.22% 4.58%

3.46% 3.60% 3.44% 3.71% 5.02% 3.87% 1.07%

Corporate Spreads: Positive for Issuance

Aaa and Baa Corporate Bond Spreads Over 10-Year Treasury, Basis Points 700

700 Baa Spread: Jun @ 340 bps

600

Spreads have returned to a more normal level; bond issuance is strong

Aaa Spread: Jun @ 202 bps

500

500

400

400

300

300

200

200

100

100

0 1996

0 1998

2000

2002

2004

Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics

600

23

2006

2008

2010

2012

Credit Default Swaps

Markit CDX North America Invest. Grade Index Credit Default Swaps on Investment Grade Entities

300

300

CDX Index: Jul-13 @ 111.88

Credit default swaps have settled at a higher range following the recession

250

250

200

200

150

150

100

100

50

50

0

0 04

05

06

07

Source: Bloomberg LP and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics

24

08

09

10

11

12

Inflation vs. Yields: Negative Real Yields – Three Non-market Buyers

Inflation and the Real Yield Percent 8.0%

8.0% 5-Year Treasury Note Yield: Jul @ 0.6% Median Inflation Expect. for 5-10 Yrs: Jul @ 2.8%

7.0%

Inflation expectations exceed nominal returns

7.0%

6.0%

6.0%

5.0%

5.0%

4.0%

4.0%

3.0%

3.0%

2.0%

2.0%

1.0%

1.0% 1996-2009 Average Median Inflation Expectation for 5-10 Years: 2.9%

0.0% 1996

0.0% 1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Source: Federal Reserve Board, University of Michigan and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics

25

2010

2012

Interest Expense

Non-fin. Corporate Business: Corporate Interest As a Percentage of Pre-Tax Profits 100%

Interest expenses are declining amid the low-rate environment

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

Corporate Interest: Q1 @ 8.4%

0%

0% 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics

26

Corporate Profits: Global Growth

Corporate Profits As a Percent of GDP

Profits as a percentage of GDP are historically high and are being boosted by profits earned abroad

14%

14%

12%

12%

10%

10%

8%

8%

6%

6%

4%

4%

2%

2%

Rest of World: Q1 @ 2.3%

Domestic: Q1 @ 10.5%

0%

0% 47

51

55

59

63

67

71

75

79

83

87

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics

27

91

95

99

03

07

11

Corporate Earnings

S&P 500 Ex-Financials EPS Growth Year-Over-Year 50%

50%

40%

40%

30%

30%

20%

Forecast

10%

Earnings per share are expected to remain modest

20% 10%

0%

0%

-10%

-10%

-20%

-20%

-30%

-30% Earnings Per Share Growth: Q4 @ 6.7%

-40%

2007

2008

2009

Source: FactSet and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics

28

2010

2011

2012

2013

-40%

Credit

Business credit is poised to grow as standards are being relaxed and demand is rising

Standards

Demand

Net Percentage of Banks Tightening Standards

Net Percent of Banks Reporting Stronger Demand

Commercial and Industrial Loans

Commercial and Industrial Loans

100%

100%

60%

60%

80%

80%

40%

40%

60%

60%

20%

20%

40%

40%

0%

20%

20%

-20%

-20%

0%

-40%

-40%

-20%

-60%

-60%

-40%

-80%

-60%

-100%

0% -20% -40%

C&I Loans to Large & Medium Firms: Q2 @ -6.9%

0%

C&I Loans to Small Firms: Q2 @ -1.8%

Demand for C&I Loans to Small Firms: Q2 @ 21.8%

-60% 92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

-100% 92

Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics

-80%

Demand for C&I Loans to Large & Medium Firms: Q2 @ 31.0%

29

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

Fiscal Policy: Difficult Choices

Federal Budget Balance Percentage of GDP 4.0%

4.0%

2.0%

2.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-2.0%

-2.0%

-4.0%

The nation has entered uncharted waters in fiscal policy

Forecast

-4.0%

-6.0%

-6.0%

-8.0%

-8.0%

-10.0%

-10.0%

-12.0%

-12.0% Budget Balance: Q2 @ -8.0%

-14.0% 2000

-14.0% 2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of the Treasury and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics

30

Fiscal Policy: Restructuring Continues

Real Government Consumption & Investment Bars = CAGR

Line = Yr/Yr % Change

10%

The government sector continues to be a drag on GDP as state and local governments restructure

10%

8%

8%

6%

6%

4%

4%

2%

2%

0%

0%

-2%

-2%

-4%

-4%

Government Consumption & Investment: Q1 @ -4.0% Government Consumption & Investment: Q1 @ -2.3%

-6% 1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics

31

2008

2010

-6% 2012

Global Growth

GDP Growth Post-Recession Average Annual Percent Change for 2010 and 2011

United Kingdom Euro area Japan

1.4% 1.7% 1.8%

United States

2.4%

South Africa

The global recovery is being driven by emerging markets

3.0%

Russia

4.3%

Brazil

5.1%

Indonesia

6.3%

Turkey

8.7%

India

8.9%

China 0.0%

9.8% 2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

Source: International Monetary Fund and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics

32

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Chinese Real GDP

Chinese Real GDP Forecast Year-over-Year Percent Change

Although the Chinese economy has probably landed softly, significant acceleration does not appear likely either

15%

15%

12%

12%

Forecast

9%

9%

6%

6%

Year-over-Year Percent Change: Q2 @ 7.6%

3%

3% 00

01

02

03

04

05

06

Source: Bloomberg LP and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics

33

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

Eurozone

The European sovereign debt crisis has weighed on growth in the Euro area

Eurozone GDP

Purchasing Mangers’ Indices Eurozone Purchasing Managers' Indices

Eurozone Real GDP Bars = Compound Annual Rate

Index

Line = Yr/Yr % Change

8%

8%

65

65

60

60

55

55

50

50

45

45

40

40

Compound Annual Growth: Q1 @ 0.1% Year-over-Year Percent Change: Q1 @ 0.0%

Forecast

4%

4%

0%

0%

-4%

-4%

-8%

-8% 35

-12%

30

-12% 2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

30 02

2012

Source: IHS Global Insight and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics

35

E.Z. Manufacturing: Jun @ 45.1 E.Z. Services: Jun @ 47.1

34

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

Europe

The European Economy

 Will there be a resolution?  The Eurozone at present is a monetary union without a

Europe will continue to muddle through as the sovereign debt crisis will likely fester for some time

fiscal union  Leaders are caught between the rock of another fiscal crisis and the hard place of a radical restructuring  We expect European leaders to move slowly toward a fiscal union

 How does it affect the U.S. domestic economy?  Exports to Europe account for 1 to 2 percent of U.S. GDP  Uncertainty related to Europe could constrain investment spending decisions  A dissolution of the Eurozone could be another Lehman-like event

Economics

35

Peripheral Exposure

Bank Exposure to Peripheral Europe Percent of GDP, Q4 2011

20%

20% Italy Spain Portugal Ireland Greece

15%

Many European countries have significant exposure to sovereign debt in peripheral European countries

10%

10%

5%

5%

0%

0% FR

PT

NE UK GE

BE

SZ

SP

AS

IR

Source: Bank for International Settlements and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics

15%

36

IT

JP

SW US CA

European Debt Crisis

European Debt Crisis

 Tighter Fiscal Policy in Europe/Potential Greek Exit  Slower U.S. export growth  Lower oil prices  Treasury rates kept low  Weaker job growth in the U.S. with more financial uncertainty  Small impact on unemployment and home prices The European debt crisis is having far-reaching effects

 U.S. Money Market Funds  Equity valuation of European securities  Decreased Liquidity  Rising short-term market rates  TED spread, LIBOR-OIS

 Dollar Appreciates  Versus both the euro and the pound Economics

37

Global Economies: A Strong Dollar Policy?

Trade Weighted Dollar January 1997 =100 150

150 Revaluation of Chinese Renminbi

Economic fundamentals and risks abroad will drive the dollar

140

140

130

130

120

120

110

110

100

100 TWD OITP Index: Jun @ 131.6 TWD Broad Index: Jun @ 102.2

90 2003

90 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics

38

2009

2010

2011

2012

Outlook Risks

Potential Challenges to the Outlook

 Easier monetary policy brings questions for the dollar, inflation and interest rate outlook

 Fiscal policy: going over the “fiscal cliff”  Housing: unable to sustain growth on its own What are the primary risks to the outlook?

 European debt crisis weighs on global growth  Fall in oil and gasoline prices helps to raise real consumption

 Weak employment growth means less-than-expected real income and spending growth

Economics

39

U.S. Forecast

Wells Fargo U.S. Economic Outlook Actual 2011

Real Gross Domestic Product Personal Consumption Inflation Indicators PCE Deflator

1

2009

Actual 2010

2011

Forecast 2012 2013

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

0.4

1.3

1.8

3.0

1.9

1.2

1.4

1.8

-3.6

3.0

1.7

1.8

1.8

2.1

0.7

1.7

3.0

2.5

1.6

1.8

1.6

-2.0

2.0

2.2

1.9

1.4

1.8

2.5

2.9

2.7

2.3

1.7

1.2

1.1

0.6

1.8

2.5

1.6

1.1

2.1

3.3

3.8

3.3

2.8

1.9

1.2

1.2

-0.3

1.6

3.1

1.8

1.6

4.4

1.2

5.6

5.1

5.6

3.1

2.4

2.2

-11.3

5.4

4.1

4.1

2.4

8.8

8.5

7.5

7.0

5.5

6.0

5.8

5.4

9.1

32.2

7.9

5.7

5.5

74.5

72.5

74.0

77.7

75.6

70.9

73.4

76.5

8.2

8.3

8.3

9.3

9.6

9.0

8.3

8.1

0.59

0.61

0.74

0.85

2

Consumer Price Index Industrial Production

1

Corporate Profits Before Taxes Trade Weighted Dollar Index Unemployment Rate Housing Starts

Forecast 2012

3

4

Quarter-End Interest Rates 5 Federal Funds Target Rate

2

70.6

69.4

72.8

73.3

72.7

9.0

9.0

9.1

8.7

8.3

0.58

0.57

0.61

0.68

0.71

0.73

0.76

0.75

0.55

0.25

0.25

0.25

0.25

0.25

0.25

0.25

0.25

0.25

0.25

0.25

0.25

0.25

Conventional Mortgage Rate

4.84

4.51

4.11

3.96

3.95

3.68

3.70

3.80

5.04

4.69

4.46

3.78

4.05

10 Year Note

3.47

3.18

1.92

1.89

2.23

1.67

1.65

1.80

3.26

3.22

2.78

1.84

2.05

Forecast as of: July 13, 2012 1 C ompound Annual Growth Rate Quarter-over-Quarter 2 Year-over-Year Percentage C hange 3 Federal Reserve Major C urrency Index, 1973=100 - Quarter End 4 Millions of Units 5

Annual Numbers Represent Averages

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor, Federal Reserve Board, Freddie Mac and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Economics

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Appendix

Wells Fargo Economics Group Publications

Recent Special Commentary Date

To join any of our research distribution lists please visit our website: http://www.wellsfargo.com/ economics

Authors

The Lowdown on Consumer Spending Employment: Beyond the Sound Bites—Reading the Signals IX Employment: Beyond the Sound Bites—Reading the Signals VIII Employment: Beyond the Sound Bites—Reading the Signals VII Housing Data Wrap-Up: June 2012 Do Too Many Dollars Make Us an Inflation Nation?

Vitner & Quinlan Silvia & Watt Silvia & Watt Silvia & Watt Vitner & Khan Bullard & Quinlan

June-29 June-22 June-20 June-20 June-20 June-19 June-15 June-07 June-07

2012 State Budget Outlook Student Loans: The Best of Intentions FOMC: Keep On Twisting Until Europe's Fever Breaks The Fiscal Cliff: Likelihood and Economic Impact Credit Quality Monitor: June 2012 The Fed: Same Goal, Different Method Economic Growth Appears to Be Lost in a Fog of Uncertainty What Happens if Span or Italy Leaves EMU? Housing Chartbook: May 2012

Silvia & Brown Silvia, Seydl & Watt Vitner Silvia, Brown & Watt Anderson & Kashmarkek Silvia & Khan Vitner Bryson, Quinlan & Swankoski Vitner, Khan & Seydl

May-29 May-24 May-22 May-16 May-16 May-15 May-07

Implications of a Euro Exit to Greece Puerto Rico: Failure of the State Commercial Real Estate Snapshot: South Carolina Expected Inflation Continues to Fall, Challenging the FOMC Work or Retirement? The Employment Outlook for Seniors The Not So Great Migration North Carolina: A Better Year Ahead?

Bryson, Quinlan & Swankoski Aleman Vitner & Watt Bullard & Seydl Bryson & Watt Silvia, Brown & Seydl Silvia, Brown & Watt

April-24 April-19 April-18 April-10 April-09

Lessons from British Fiscal Consolidation Credit: Changing Patterns in How We Finance Growth Business, Banking & the 2008 Financial Crisis: Where Are we Now? Fiscal Consolidation in a Flow-of-Funds Framework Budget and Election Year Uncertainty Restrain the Capital Region

Bryson & Seydl Silvia & Iqbal Silvia Bryson & Seydl Vitner & Watt

State Personal Income Gains: Who Is Hot And Who Is Not Here We Go Again: Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy The Composition of Job Growth: A Low-Wage Bias?

2011: Revising a Year of Modest Job Growth Three Hard Realities Continue to Limit the Cyclical Expansion Economic Outlook and the Biases that Limit Our Thinking Credit Quality Monitor The Quality of Job Growth Remains Subpar Three Measures of a Healthy Labor Market: A Cyclical View Georgia’s Recovery Kicked Into High Gear During 2011 Regional Impact of Gasoline Prices The Evolution of the Economy, Credit & Economic Policy

Vitner Silvia, Aleman & Iqbal Vitner & Seydl Vitner & Brown Silvia Silvia Anderson & Kashmarek Vitner Silvia, Iqbal & Watt Vitner Vitner & Brown Silvia

Insourcing: Manufacturing - A Viable Solution in a Global Economy?

Is the Skills Disconnect In the Labor Force New? 2012 Regional Chartbook: Quarter 1 Does the New LEI Alter Recession Predictability Accuracy?

Disparities of Education and Structural Unemployment WTI: No Longer A Benchmark For Oil Prices Bank Lending: Fed's Survey Suggests Support for Growth The Fragile Fiscal Policy Outlook: I

Silvia, Brown & Swankoski Silvia & Brown Vitner, Brown & Seydl Silvia & Iqbal Silvia, Brown & Swankoski Aleman Silvia & Watt Silvia & Brown

March-28 March-23 March-19 March-16 March-15 March-09 March-09 March-09 March-06 March-05 March-05 March-05 February-28 February-27 February-23 February-16 February-13 February-13 February-08 February-02

Economics

Title

July-13 July-11 July-10 July-09 July-05 July-02

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Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Economics Group Global Head of Research and Economics

Economists

Diane Schumaker-Krieg ………………… ….diane.schumaker@wellsfargo.com Global Head of Research & Economics

Azhar Iqbal, Econometrician………………………………azhar.iqbal@wellsfargo.com

……

Tim Quinlan, Economist …………………………………..tim.quinlan@wellsfargo.com

Chief Economist Ed Kashmarek, Economist …………………………….ed.kashmarek@wellsfargo.com John Silvia

…

...................... …

john.silvia@wellsfargo.com

.

Michael Brown, Economist ………………………..michael.a.brown@wellsfargo.com Senior Economists Mark Vitner, Senior Economist……………....………. .

Jay Bryson, Global Economist

.

mark.vitner@wellsfargo.com

Sarah Watt, Economic Analyst …………………………….sarah.watt@wellsfargo.com

…………………....……….jay.bryson@wellsfargo.com

Scott Anderson, Senior Economist…………… …

Eugenio Aleman, Senior Economist Sam Bullard, Senior Economist

Economic Analysts

Kaylyn Swankoski, Economic Analyst

scott.a.anderson@wellsfargo.com

Administration

…………….eugenio.j.aleman@wellsfargo.com

Peg Gavin, Executive Assistant.

………………………….sam.bullard@wellsfargo.com

Anika Khan, Senior Economist………

kaylyn.swankoski@wellsfargo.com

Cyndi Flowe, Administrative Assistant

peg.gavin@wellsfargo.com cyndi.h.flowe@wellsfargo.com

. anika.khan@wellsfargo.com

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Economics

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