Demographics: Global Implications for Economic Growth and Investment 30th Annual Monetary & Trade Conference Drexel University Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Richard F. Hokenson April 24 ,2012
The Speed of Aging: Developed Countries
Number of Years for Percent of Population 65+ to rise from 7 to 14 percent 115
France (1865-1980) Sw eden (1890-1975) Australia (1938U.S. (1944-2013) Canada (1944-2009) Hungary (1941-1994) Poland (1966-2013) U.K. (1930-1975) Spain (1947-1992) Japan (1970-1996)
85 73 69 65 53 47 45 45 26 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Speed of Aging: Developing Countries
Number of Years for Percent of Population 65+ to rise from 7 to 14 percent 27 27 25 24 23 23 22 21 20
China (2000-2027) Singapore (2001Chile (2000-2025) Jamaica (2009-2033) Sri Lanka (2004-2027) Tunisia (2009-2032) Thailand (2003-2025) Brazil (2011-2032) Colombia (2017-2037)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
United Nations – Total Fertility Rate by Development Status
The United Nations Forecast through the year 2100
Total Population in Billions
Annual Percent Change
2050 Population as a Multiple of 2010
No data
0.7 < 1.0
1.0 < 1.3
Source: Population Reference Bureau 2011 World Population Data Sheet; Hokenson & Company.
1.3 < 1.9
1.9 < 3.4
Demographics and Destiny
Maximum Effective Capital Gains Tax Rate versus Percentage of Young Taxpayers 50
36
45
34
40
Percent
35
32
30
30
25
28
20
26
15 10
24 22
0
20
19 50 19 55 19 60 19 65 19 70 19 75 19 80 19 85 19 90 19 95 20 00 20 05 20 10 20 15 20 20
5
Source: U.S. Treasury; Hokenson & Company
Tax Rate % Young
The Era of Low Interest Rates has only just begun
Yield on Long-Term Treasuries versus Smoothed Growth in Current Dollar GDP
U.S. Current Dollar GDP (Year-ago Change (bars) and Smoothed 10-Year Change (line))
U.S.: Smoothed Growth in Current Dollar GDP and Labor Force
U.S.: Smoothed Growth in Current Dollar GDP and Forecasted Labor Force
Yield on Long-Term Treasuries versus Historical and Forecasted Growth in Current Dollar GDP
Population Trends in
The Developed World
The Developed World Population Change by Age Groups in Millions: 2005-2015
15
Japan and Europe
16
17
Western Europe Population Change by Age Groups in Millions: 2005-2015
18
Europe – Countries above or below average median age 1960 vs 2060
Aging in the European Union E.U. & Candidates Aged Dependency Ratios (population 65+ as a percent of 15 to 64)
55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 2000
2005
2010
2015 EU
2020
2025
EU + Candidates
Sources: US Census Bureau, International Data Base; Hokenson & Company
2030
2035
2040
EU + Candidates ex Turkey
2045
2050
The American “Exception”
21
Total Fertility Rate for Selected Regions and Countries: 2010 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 United States
Western East Europe Europe
Japan
Russia
China
Source: United Nations; Hokenson & Company. 22
Legal Immigration
23
US: Number of Live Births in Millions
24
Annual Household Formations and Housing Completions
25
Percent Reaching Stated Anniversary by Marriage Cohort for Women's First Marriages: 2009
26
US versus Eurozone
27
Social (In)Security?
28
United States: Population in Millions (2010)
29
United States: Population in Millions (2050) 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4
Male
15 10 5 Sources: United Nations; Hokenson & Company.
Female
0
5
10
15
30
Brazil
Russia
India
China
Russian Federation: Life Expectancy at Birth
Russian Federation : Number of Entry-Level Workers 26 24
Millions
22 20 18 16 14 12 10 1990
2000
2010
Sources: United Nations; Hokenson & Company.
2020
2030
2040
2050
China Population Change by Age Groups in Millions: 2005-2015
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 0-9
10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79
80+
China: Population of Working Age
35
The Aging Index: China versus the US
Ratio
180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Sources: United Nations; Hokenson & Company.
USA China
2040
2050
India Population Change by Age Groups in Millions: 2005-2015
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 0-9
10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+
India: Number of Entry-Level Workers 230 220
Millions
210 200 190 180 170 160 1990
2000
2010
Sources: United Nations; Hokenson & Company.
2020
2030
2040
2050
Brazil Population Change by Age Groups in Millions: 2005-2015
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 0-9
10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79
80+
Brazil : Number of Entry-Level Workers
41
Important Changes in the Financial Arrangements of Households
U.S. Households with more MONEY than TIME (Number of U.S. Families with Two or More Earners)
U.S. Households with more TIME than MONEY (Number of U.S. Families with One Earner)
Suggested Readings and References Birth and Fortune: The Impact of Numbers on Personal Welfare by Richard Easterlin
The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History by David Hackett Fisher The Feminine Mystique by Betty Friedan The Age of Discontinuity by Peter Drucker Population and Development Review
Richard F. Hokenson rhokenson@hokenson.biz (609) 516-7780
45