Outlook on Agriculture: International Meat Perspective Dan Halstrom Senior Vice President Global Marketing & Communication U.S. Meat Export Federation
February 2012
USMEF’s Mission Increase the value and profitability of the U.S. beef, pork and lamb industries by enhancing demand for their products in targeted export markets through a dynamic partnership of all stakeholders
USMEF’s Global Footprint
World Meat Consumption Growth from 2010 to 2020F Poultry: +26% Pork: +18% Beef: +14.5%
Thousand Metric Tons
130,000 120,000 110,000 100,000 90,000
Poultry Pork Beef
80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Source: OECD/FAO Agricultural Outlook June 2011, beef & pork in carcass wt equivalent, poultry in rtc
A Look at Beef
Emerging Markets
U.S. Beef Exports’ Recovery Thousand MT
2011: 1.277 MMT, +20% valued at $5.35 billion, +31%; surpassing ’03 record
1,400 1,200
Variety Meats Beef
1,000 800 600 400 200
20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 F 12 20 F 13 20 F 14 20 F 15 F
0
Source: USDA/USMEF
Exports as Percent of Production 16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
11 20 0 1 20 9 0 20 8 0 20 7 0 20 6 0 20 05 20 4 0 20 03 20 2 0 20 01 20 00 20 9 9 19 8 9 19 7 9 19 6 9 19 5 9 19 4 9 19 3 9 19 92 19 1 9 19 90 19 9 8 19 88 19 87 19 6 8 19 5 8 19 4 8 19 3 8 19 2 8 19 1 8 19 0 8 19 79 19 8 7 19 77 19 6 7 19 5 7 19 4 7 19 3 7 19 72 19 1 7 19 0 7 19
0%
Source: USDA/USMEF (includes variety meat)
Value of Exports per Head Slaughtered $250
2011 Nov.: $219.73 $200
2010 Record: $153.09 $150
2003: $136.46
$100 $50 $0 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Source: USDA/USMEF, steer & heifer slaughter
U.S. Beef Exports to Top Markets
400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000
2003 2010 2011est 2012F
100,000 50,000 0
ic er Am n S a C/ be rib Ca a
EU an /C g iw on Ta K ng Ho N EA AS i a ss Ru a re Ko n pa t Ja as E id M da na Ca co i ex
M
h
Source: USDA & USMEF 2012 preliminary forecast, includes variety meats
Top U.S. Beef Export Markets • Mexico – 234,888 metric tons (up 5% vs. 2010) ● value up 23% to $902.8 million • Canada – 174,122 MT (up 27%) ● value up 43% to $940.5 million • Middle East – 159,134 MT (up 33%) ● value up 38% to $318 million • Japan – 148,182 MT (up 29%) ● value up 38% to $812.1 million • South Korea – 139,663 MT (up 38%) ● value up 32% to $618.3 million
U.S. Beef Exports ‘11 vs. ‘10 (Including variety meat)
Volume: Metric Tons 130,000
120,000
110,000
100,000
2011 2010
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000 Jan
Feb
March
April
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
U.S. Beef Exports ‘11 vs. ‘10 (Including variety meat)
Value: Millions of Dollars
$550
$500
$450
$400
2011 2010
$350
$300
$250
$200 Jan
Feb
March
April
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Rebuilding Trust
Next Phase: World Class Beef
Holiday Newspaper/Traffic Ads
Introducing Yakiniku Cuts
Target item for 2012: Yakiniku cuts such as offal (EG: Tongue, Skirts, Intestine) and BBQ items (EG:B/L short rib, Chuck Rib). Tokyo office will make guidebook of recommended items for 2012.
Why U.S. beef variety meat? Unit: M/T 1 8 0 ,0 0 0
(MT) 1 6 0 ,0 0 0 1 4 0 ,0 0 0 1 2 0 ,0 0 0
(’00)
1 0 0 ,0 0 0
105,000 M
8 0 ,0 0 0
POTENTIAL
6 0 ,0 0 0 4 0 ,0 0 0
(’10) 2 0 ,0 0 0
15,000 MT 0 2000
2001
2002
2003 US
2004
Aussie
2005 Brazil
2006 NZ
2007
2008
2009
2010
Others
Source: MAFF
China Beef – The Future?? • 1.4 billion consumers • Increased standard of living • USMEF wellpositioned, prepared for access
Beef Recovery Campaign Sweepstakes campaign: U.S. beef + local food from Tohoku area
7-Eleven Promotion in Japan
Asia Beef Market Access Opportunity MARKET
CURRENT ACCESS CONDITIONS
Japan (#3)
20 months & under age verified: bone-in, boneless, offal
Korea (#4)
2003 Exports ($millions)
2010 Exports
2011 (f) Exports
$1,344
$639
$869
UTM : bone-in, boneless, offal
$797
$518
$645
Taiwan (#5)
UTM all products; no offals & ground beef (except tendon)
$76
$216
$174
HK (#8)
UTM boneless; no offal
$82
$155
$230
China
NO ACCESS
$27
-
-
Other markets in flux include Singapore, Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand
Beef: Near-term Forecast • 2011
1.277 million MT (2.8 billion pounds) +20% over 2010
$5.35 billion value (+31%) $202 per head export value
• 2012
>1.3 million MT (2.9 billion pounds) +3 to 6% over 2011
>$5.6 billion value (+5 to 9%) $218 per head export value
A Look at Pork
Volume of U.S. Pork Exports Million MT
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.0
10 20 08 20 06 20 04 20 02 20 00 20 98 19 96 19 94 19 92 19 90 19 88 19 86 19 84 19 82 19 80 19 78 19 76 19 74 19 72 19 70 19
Source: USDA/USMEF
Value of U.S. Pork Exports Billion USD
$6.0
$5.0
$4.0
$3.0
$2.0
$1.0
$0.0
10 20 08 20 06 20 04 20 02 20 00 20 98 19 96 19 94 19 92 19 90 19 88 19 86 19 84 19 82 19 80 19 78 19 76 19 74 19 72 19 70 19
Source: USDA/USMEF
Value of Exports per Hog Slaughtered $59.98 in Nov. – new record
$60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0
10 20 08 20 06 20 04 20 02 20 00 20 98 19 96 19 94 19 92 19 90 19 88 19 86 19 84 19 82 19 80 19 78 19 76 19 74 19 72 19 70 19
Source: USDA/USMEF, FI Hog Slaughter
U.S. Pork Exports as Percent Production 30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
11 20 10 20 09 20 08 20 7 0 20 6 0 20 05 20 4 0 20 03 20 2 0 20 01 20 00 20 99 19 8 9 19 97 19 96 19 95 19 4 9 19 3 9 19 92 19 1 9 19 90 19 9 8 19 88 19 87 19 86 19 5 8 19 84 19 3 8 19 82 19 1 8 19 0 8 19 79 19 78 19 77 19 6 7 19 75 19 4 7 19 73 19 2 7 19 71 19 0 7 19
0%
Source: USDA/USMEF, includes variety meats
Top U.S. Pork Export Markets • Mexico – 477,221 metric tons (down 3% vs. 2010) ● value up 4% at $925.3 million • Japan – 451,509 MT (up 14%) ● value up 19% to $1.8 billion • Hong Kong/China – 428,683 MT (up 68%) ● value up 96% to $794,572 million • Canada – 188,250 MT (up 14%) ● value up 20% to $673,848 million • South Korea – 172,791 MT (up 126%) ● value up 176% to $453.7 million (USDA statistics compiled by USMEF for January-November 2011)
U.S. Pork Exports ‘11 vs. ‘10 (Including variety meat)
Volume: Metric Tons 220,000
210,000
200,000
190,000
2011 2010
180,000
170,000
160,000
150,000
140,000 Jan
Feb
March
April
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
U.S. Pork Exports ‘11 vs. ‘10 (Including variety meat)
Value: Millions of Dollars
$650
$600
$550
$500
2011 2010
$450
$400
$350
$300 Jan
Feb
March
April
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Promotion at Walmart China
Pork Recovery Campaign Sweepstakes campaign: U.S. pork + local food from Tohoku area
7-Eleven Promotion in Japan
Mexico: Training, Ideal Meat Case
Pork Butt Campaign in Korea
Pork: Near-term Forecast • 2011
2.11 million MT (4.6 million pounds) +10% over 2010
$5.45 billion value (+14%) $54 per head export value
• 2012
2.115 million MT (4.7 million pounds) Up slightly over 2011
$5.6 billion value (Up slightly) $55 per head export value
Questions?