The Machinery of Money

Mark P. Mills Partner, Montrose Lane Ventures Senior Fellow, Manhattan Institute for Policy Research Faculty Fellow, Northwestern University McCormick School of Engineering

Machines that facilitate finance vs create wealth Tabulators

Crypto capitalization ($ trillion) 3 2 1

2016 Tractors

100

2022

Global GDP ($ trillion)

80

60 40 2000

2022

Technology & the means of exchange $50 B global “mobile payments” → $500 B by 2030

Trends in all U.S. noncash payments

Share all U.S. business conducted online

$Trillion

30%

40 20%

30 20

10% 10 0 2000

2023

2000

2018 2

Technology & the means of productivity Technology remains the dominant engine of growth.

Robert Solow, 1987 Nobel Prize Economics Model T: 1924 25 years

Boeing 707: 1957 25 years

IBM Mainframe: 1964 20 years

Exodus Datacenter: 1995 25 years

Economic inflection: Information services

Economic inflection: Transportation services

A.I. information engines: ‘Micro’ chip Cerebras WSE-2: 2022 25 years

Information infrastructure 5,000 enterprise-class datacenters vs 1,500 skyscrapers

Each datacenter square foot: • Same as skyscraper to build • 5x more rent • 100x more power

U.S. private investment IT equip & software ($ billion) 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200

Datacenter, Finland 1950

2022

A.I.-enabled mobile robots: Long time coming Million shipped 7

5

3

1

Unimate 1961 Johnny Carson Show

Spot Mini 2022 Jimmy Fallon Show

U.S. employment by occupational classification Millions employed 60 50 40 30 20 10

1983

2016

A.I. & autonomy just in time Ratio: U.S. jobs available/unemployed

10

Working age populations shrinking

Today ChatGPT

Tomorrow?

“Optimus”

From ”irrational exuberance” to a signal of growth?

U.S. Productivity Growth Rate Reverts to Mean?

AI Hype $100B → $1,500B by 2030

First Robot IPO Agility Robotics