Economic Context for Dollar Development

The GailFosler Group

Economic Context for Dollar Development Global Interdependence Center 39th Annual Monetary & Trade Conference May 2021

Post-pandemic rebound could set records • Global growth rates are highest in over 20 years, exceeding 2009 rebound

• U.S. growth is running at 5 percent in 2021 and will be likely still higher in 2022 (i.e., 6 percent (?)) as normal economic dynamics reengage • U.S. growth will match emerging markets for first time in recent memory Real GDP and GFG Projection Preferred Outlook

?

6 4 2 0 World

-2

United States

-4 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Sources: IMF, The GailFosler Group

Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars

Annual Percent Change

8

Real GDP Growth and GFG Projections 22,000 21,000 20,000

2% 1% 3% -5%

33% 4%

19,000

6%

3% 5% 3%

7%

7%

7%

7%

18,000 17,000

-31%

16,000 15,000 2019 Q1

2019 Q3

2020 Q1

2020 Q3

2021 Q1

2021 Q3

2022 Q1

2022 Q3

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, The GailFosler Group

2

Markets rather than COVID relief drive incomes • Disposable personal market income (personal income less net transfers) exceeded Q4 2019 in Q1 2021 and drives economic growth • Federal relief payments create bulges in personal income but do not have sustainable impacts until spent in the future • Market dynamics underpin rapid income growth going into 2022 24,000 Nominal GDP

US$ (Billions)

22,000 Personal Income

20,000

Disposable Personal Income

18,000 16,000

Disposable Personal Market Income

14,000 12,000 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Dashed lines indicate GFG projections.

Disposable Personal Market Income = Disposable Personal Income less net transfers.

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, The GailFosler Group

3

U.S. fiscal infusions extend to 2022 and likely 2023 • U.S. 2020 stimulus totaled about $4 trillion, much of it unspent or transitory • Personal income relief at $1 trillion will boost growth for several years • American Rescue Program $1.2 trillion in 2021 is more stimulus than the economy can absorb in the short term, with another $500 billion in 2022 • President’s other proposals, also in the trillions, will spend out over 10 years.

Illustrative Allocation of Fiscal Relief by Calendar Year (in Billions) 2020 Personal Income Relief CARES: Economic Impact Payments (EIP) CARES: Unemployment Response and Relief Act (EIP) Response and Relief Act (Unemployment) American Rescue Plan (ARP) Allocation of Residual Personal Relief Prior 2020 Unspent Funds State and Local (ARP) Other ARP Hard Infrastructure Remaining Biden Job Plan TOTAL

2021

2022

2023

500 200 0 250 0 50 50

100 200 0 100 0 90 170

400 400 200 100 700 100 400 150 350

800

2,000

1,050

660

Sources : Congres s i ona l Budget Offi ce, Commi ttee for Res pons i bl e Federa l Budget, BEA, GFG

4

While income recovers, employment lags • Over 16 million Americans still receive unemployment insurance • Unemployment claims will not return to normal until the fall

• Stock markets, expecting Biden’s American Rescue Plan to provide a quick fix, are clearly frustrated

Total Persons Receiving Unemployment Insurance 35,000,000 30,000,000 All Programs

25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000

5,000,000

Regular (State) Programs

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 Source: U.S. Department of Labor

5

U.S. M2 levels are approaching nominal GDP • U.S. money stock (M2) is almost as large as nominal GDP • The surge in fiscal stimulus—in particular, direct payments to individuals— have ended up in savings, most often in commercial bank accounts • The surge in bank deposits boost the money stock/GDP ratio, providing ready spending power and fuel for demand-driven inflation M2 Money Stock and GDP 25,000

US$ (Billions)

20,000

15,000 10,000 M2 Money Stock

5,000

Gross Domestic Product

Shading indicates U.S. recessions; the most recent end date is undecided.

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

0

Sources: U.S. Federal Reserve, The GailFosler Group

6

Rising yield spread challenges Fed policy • Treasury yield spread has tempered in recent weeks but remains at the highest levels since 2015 when Fed last started raising Fed funds rate

• Yield spreads reflect growth and inflation expectations, but markets will also continue to question Fed policy • Given the decline in Treasury issuance and large Fed purchases, longterm Treasury yields will continue to go down temporarily 10-Year Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

3.5 3 2.5 2

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

-1

Shading indicates U.S. Recessions.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Board of Governors

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U.S. dollar is stabilizing short term • The U.S. dollar has declined 8 percent from its pandemic-inflated peak but remains high by historic standards • We expect another 20 percent decline in the next 24 months, taking the dollar back to lower end of its normal trading range

Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index 130

Index: Jan 2006 = 100

120 110 100 90 80 70

+/- 1 standard deviation +/- 2 standard deviation

Sources: U.S. Federal Reserve, The GailFosler Group

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