New College Housing Symposium
House Prices: Are the Declines Finally Over? David W. Berson, Ph.D. April, 18, 2012
Housing Demand Factors
Change in Total Nonfarm Employment (Thousands) 800
800
400
400
0
0
-400
-400
-800
-800
-1200
-1200 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
08
09
10
11
Change in Number of Households (Thousands) 3000
3000
2500
2500
2000
2000
1500
1500
1000
1000
500
500
0
0 85 90 95 Source: Census Bureau /Haver Analytics
00
05
10
Housing Affordability Index (FRM + ARM) 240
240
200
200
160
160
120
120
80
80
40
40 75 80 85 90 95 00 Source: National Association of Realtors /Haver Analytics
05
10
Housing Supply Factors
New 1-Family Houses For Sale (Thousands, Left Axis)
Total Existing Homes For Sale (Units, Right Axis) 600
4400000
525
4000000
450
3600000
375
3200000
300
2800000
225
2400000
150
2000000 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Sources: Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors /Haver Analytics
11
Total Vacant Housing Units For Sale (Thousands, Left Axis)
Vacant Housing Units Held off Market For Other Reasons (Thousands, Right Axis) 2400
4000
2200 3600 2000
3200
1800
1600 2800 1400
1200
2400 02 03 04 05 06 Sources: Census Bureau /Haver Analytics
07
08
09
10
11
Mortgage Foreclosure Inventory (%, Red) Mortgage Payments Past Due 90+ Days (%, Blue) Mortgage Payments Past Due 60-89 Days (%, Green) Mortgage Payments Past Due 30-59 Days (%, Black) 6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0 02 03 04 Sources: MBA /Haver
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
House Price Appreciation
Annualized House Price Appreciation, All Homes (% Change - Annual Rate, Red)
Year-Ago House Price Appreciation, All Homes (% Change - Year to Year, Blue) 40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-40 02 03 04 05 06 Sources: CoreLogic /Haver Analytics
07
08
09
10
11
Annualized House Price Growth - Distressed Excluded (% Change - Annual Rate, Red)
Year-Ago House Price Growth - Distressed Excluded (% Change - Year to Year, Blue) 30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
-30 02 03 04 05 06 Sources: CoreLogic /Haver Analytics
07
08
09
10
11
Annualized House Price Appreciation, Arizona (% Change - Annual Rate, Red)
Year-Ago House Price Appreciation, Arizona (% Change - Year to Year, Blue) 60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-40 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Sources: Federal Housing Finance Agency /Haver Analytics
09
10
11
Annualized House Price Appreciation, California (% Change - Annual Rate, Red)
Year-Ago House Price Appreciation, California (% Change - Year to Year, Blue) 60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-40 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Sources: Federal Housing Finance Agency /Haver Analytics
09
10
11
Annualized House Price Appreciation, Nevada (% Change - Annual Rate, Red)
Year-Ago House Price Appreciation, Nevada (% Change - Year to Year, Blue) 80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-40 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Sources: Federal Housing Finance Agency /Haver Analytics
09
10
11
Annualized House Price Appreciation, Florida (% Change - Annual Rate, Red)
Year-Ago House Price Appreciation, Florida (% Change - Year to Year, Blue) 40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-40 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Sources: Federal Housing Finance Agency /Haver Analytics
09
10
11
Annualized House Price Appreciation, North Dakota (% Change - Annual Rate, Red)
Year-Ago House Price Appreciation, North Dakota (% Change - Year to Year, Blue) 12.5
12.5
10.0
10.0
7.5
7.5
5.0
5.0
2.5
2.5
0.0
0.0
-2.5
-2.5 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Sources: Federal Housing Finance Agency /Haver Analytics
09
10
11
Annualized House Price Appreciation: Bradenton-Sarasota-Venice, FL (% Change - Annual Rate, Red)
Year-Ago House Price Appreciation: Bradenton-Sarasota-Venice, FL (% Change - Year to Year, Blue) 40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-40 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Sources: Federal Housing Finance Agency /Haver Analytics
09
10
11