Session II: Entrepreneurial and CEO’s Outlook - Bill Dunkelberg

TWO WAYS OUT, NEITHER DESIRABLE

EXPECTING BETTER ECONOMY UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN, 2/17 REPUBLICANS 20 10 N E T

0 -10 -20

P C T

-30 -40 -50

INDEPENDENTS

DEMOCRATS

Source: University of Michigan

APRIL

18

2017+

'1 5

2008-2016

'1 2

'0 9

'0 6

NET % POLICIES ARE GOOD

'0 3

50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50

'0 0

Percent of Consumers

RATING OF GOVERNMENT POLICY

SMALL BUSINESS FACTS • 90% OF ALL EMPLOYERS HAVE FEWER THAN 20 EMPLOYEES • 99% HAVE FEWER THAN 500 • PRODUCE ABOUT HALF OF THE PRIVATE GDP • EMPLOY 50% OF PRIVATE WORKER • PRODUCE 2/3RDS OF NEW JOBS

BIRTHS AND DEATHS - ENTERPRISES BIRTHS 000 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170

DEATHS 000

??

BLS TABLE 8

15

12

'09

'06

'03

'00

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS 2016 1. RISING HEALTH CARE COST 2. COST OF REGULATIONS AND RED TAPE 3. FEDERAL TAXES ON BUSINESS INCOME 4. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE ECONOMY 5. TAX COMPLEXITY 6. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT GOVT POLICY 7. FREQUENT CHANGES IN THE TAX CODE 8. PROPERTY TAXES 9. STATE TAXES ON BUSINESS INCOME 10. FINDING QUALIFIED LABOR

SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX (QUARTERLY, 1986 = 100) FIRST MONTH IN QUARTER

110

MAY-JUNE

105 100 95 90 85 80

76

79

82

85

88

91

94

97

'00 '03 '06 '09 12

15

18

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED INDEX COMPONENTS ANSWERED QUARTERLY SURVEYS BEFORE AFTER DEC 16 JAN 17 APR 17 JUL 17 OCT 17 JAN 18 APR 18 TUESDAY JOB CREATION 9 23 16 18 16 19 19 20 16 20 JOB OPENINGS 31 30 29 31 33 35 35 34 35 36 EXPECT EASIER CREDIT -4 -5 -6 -6 -4 -4 -5 -4 -6 -4 EXPECT BUS COND BETTER -6 38 50 50 38 37 32 41 30 33 EXPECT HIGHER REAL SALES 4 20 31 29 20 22 21 25 21 26 EARNINGS TREND HIGHER -25 -16 -14 -12 -9 -10 -13 -4 -1 -1 INVENTORY TOO LOW (NET) -3 -6 -3 -5 -3 -2 -5 -5 -4 0 PLAN INCREASE INVENTORY 4 4 4 2 3 5 4 3 1 6 GOOD TIME TO EXPAND 11 11 23 25 24 23 23 32 27 29 PLAN CAPITAL SPENDING 25 23 29 27 27 28 27 29 29 29 OPTIMISM INDEX

95.4

102.4

105.8

106.0

104.5

105.2

103.8

106.9

104.8

107.2

EXPECTATIONS FOR BUSINESS CONDITIONS IN 6 MONTHS (PCTMONTH “BETTER” - PCT “WORSE”) FIRST EACH QUARTER

MAY-JUNE

40 20 0 -20

18

'1 2 15

'0 6 '0 9

'0 0 '0 3

97

94

91

85

82

79

88

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

-40

76

Percent of Firms

60

OUTLOOK FOR BUSINESS EXPANSION (PCT “NOW IS A GOOD TIME”)

FIRST MONTH EACH QUARTER

MAY-JUNE

“NO” for 8 YEARS

35 30 25 20 15 10 5

(SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

18

15

'1 2

'0 9

'0 6

'0 3

'0 0

97

94

91

88

85

82

79

0

76

Percent of Firms

40

BAD TIME TO EXPAND DUE TO THE POLITICAL CLIMATE 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

MAY-JUNE

(SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

16

'1 3

'1 0

'0 7

% OF THOSE SAYING “BAD TIME” '0 4

'0 1

Percent of Firms

QUARTERLY

REPORTED CHANGE IN PAST SALES (last 3 months vs prior 3) FIRST MONTH EACH QUARTER

MAY-JUNE

30

RECESSION ENDS

10 0 -10 -20 -30

18

15

'0 0 '0 3 '0 6 '0 9 '1 2

97

94

91

88

82

79

85

[% "HIGHER" - % "LOWER", SEAS. ADJ.]

-40

76

Percent of Firms

20

EARNINGS TRENDS: %”HIGHER” - %”LOWER” PAST QUARTER VS PRIOR QUARTER

FIRST MONTH EACH QUARTER

MAY-JUNE

0 -10 -20 -30 -40

18

15

'1 2

'0 9

'0 6

'0 3

'0 0

97

94

91

88

85

82

79

-50 76

Percent of Firms

10

EXPECTED REAL SALES FIRST MONTH EACH QUARTER

MAY-JUNE

50

30 20 10 0 -10 -20

18

15

'0 0 '0 3 '0 6 '0 9 '1 2

97

94

91

88

82

79

85

[% "HIGHER" - % "LOWER", SEAS. ADJ.]

-30

76

Percent of Firms

40

UNFILLED JOB OPENINGS % WITH AT LEAST ONE UNFILLED OPENING FIRST MONTH EACH QUARTER

MAY-JUNE

40

Percent of Firms

35 30 25 20 15 10

15 17

12

'0 6 '0 9

'0 0 '0 3

97

94

91

88

85

82

79

76

5

C IF IC W O R SK K IL H SO LS I S C IA TO R L SK Y IL L W LE S A G GA E EX L EN PE A G/M C PP EA AT R H A N A TT C E IT U D D E R U G S

SP E

TYPICAL REASONS APPLICANT “NOT QUALIFIED” 2007 2017

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

JOB CREATION PLANS FIRST MONTH EACH QUARTER MAY-JUNE % PLAN INCREASE - % PLAN DECREASE 25

15 10 5 0 -5

15 17

'1 2

'0 9

'0 6

'0 3

'0 0

97

94

91

88

85

82

79

-10 76

Percent of Firms

20

MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS LABOR QUALITY

25 20 15 10 5

18

15

'1 2

'0 9

'0 6

'0 3

'0 0

97

94

91

88

85

82

79

0 76

Percent of Firms

FIRST MONTH IN EACH QUARTER+MAY, JUNE

NET PERCENT OF OWNERS INCREASING EMPLOYMENT FIRST MONTH EACH QUARTER

MAY-JUNE

15

5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

18

15

'0 0 '0 3 '0 6 '0 9 '1 2

97

94

91

88

85

82

-25

79

Percent of Firms

10

PREDICTED AND ACTUAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ACTUAL

10 8 6

15

'12

'09

'06

'03

97 '00

94

91

88

85

82

79

4

76

Percent of Firms

PREDICTED

ACTUAL PRICE INCREASES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED FIRST MONTH EACH QUARTER

80

FIRST MONTH IN EACH QUARTER

40 20

-40

18

'0 0 '0 3 '0 6 '0 9 '1 2 15

94 97

88 91

-20

82 85

0

76 79

Percent of Firms

60

MAY-JUNE

ACTUAL CAPITAL OUTLAYS % SPENDING

75

%SPEND + LEASE

MAY-JUNE

Y2K

HOUSING 65 60

LEASING ADDED

55 50 45

18

'0 9 '1 2 15

LOW PRODUCTIVITY

'0 0 '0 3 '0 6

97

94

91

88

85

40

FIRST MONTH IN EACH QUARTER

82

Percent of Firms

70

PLANNED CAPITAL OUTLAYS (NEXT SIX MONTHS) FIRST MONTH EACH QUARTER

MAY-JUNE

45

35 30 25 20

'1 3 16

'0 7 '1 0

'0 1 '0 4

95 98

89 92

83 86

15

77 80

Percent of Firms

40

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • ECONOMIC DRIVERS – REGULATORY TAX CUT – CORPORATE, INDIVIDUAL TAX CUTS – LARGE FISCAL STIMULUS

• EXPECTATIONS – ALL ABOUT THE FUTURE – INCREASED WILLINGNES TO SPEND – INCREASED WILLING TO INVEST (REAL)

• RISKS – MANY “NEW” ONES – – – – – –

TRADE CONFIDENCE IN GOVERNMENT INSTITUTIONS DOWN DEBT AND DEFICITS POLICY ERRORS: FED, FISCAL OVERCONFIDENCE, DEPENDENCE ON MODELS POLITICAL FRACTURING, INEQUALITY CONTEMPT

TRICKLE DOWN

ALWAYS FIND WAYS TO MAKE YOUR JOB INTERESTING