TWO WAYS OUT, NEITHER DESIRABLE
GDP AND EMPLOYMENT GDP(left)
EMPLOYMENT (right)
17000
147000
16000
145000
15000
143000
14000 13000
141000
12000
139000
EMPLOYMENT GAP
11000
137000
14
'1 3
'1 2
'1 1
'1 0
'0 9
135000
'0 8
'0 7
'0 6
'0 5
'0 4
'0 3
'0 2
'0 1
'0 0
10000 HAVER ANALYTICS
HOUSING STARTS UNITS 2000
UNITS 000
1700 1400
MISSING IN GDP 1100 800
HAVER ANALYTICS 500 91
93
95
97
99
'01
'03
'05
'07
'09
'11
'13
HOME OWNERSHIP 96
99
'02
'05
'08
11
70
RENTERS OWNERS 65
60
USA
AGE 35-55
14
PRIVATE SECTOR ESTABLISHMENT BIRTHS AND DEATHS BIRTHS
12
'0 9
'0 6
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
'0 3
'0 0
250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150
DEATHS
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE U3 RATE 11 10 8 7 6 5 4
(SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
'1 2
'0 9
'0 6
'0 3
'0 0
97
94
91
88
85
82
79
3
76
Percent
9
INTEREST RATES AND STOCK MARKET I YEAR TREAS
S&P 500
15
1800 1500
10
1200 900
5
600
'12
'09
300 '06
'03
'00
97
94
91
0
HAVER ANALYTICS
INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT QUARTERLY 110
90 80 70 60
Source: University of Michigan
'1 3
'0 8
'0 3
98
93
88
83
50
78
Index Value
100
REUTERS/UofM CONSUMER CONFIDENCE BY INCOME TERCILE 100
LOWEST
MIDDLE
TOP THIRD
80 70 60
14
'1 2
13
LAST DOT IS EARLY APRIL
50
'1 1
Percent of Firms
90
RATING OF GOVERNMENT POLICY NET % POLICIES ARE GOOD 50
2008-2014
APRIL FIRST HALF
30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40
Source: University of Michigan
'1 2
'0 9
'0 6
'0 3
-50
'0 0
Percent of Consumers
40
SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX (QUARTERLY, 1986 = 100) SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
110
FEB MAR
105 100 95 90 85
FIRST MONTH IN EACH QUARTER
80
76
79
82
85
88
91
94
97
'00
'03
'06
'09
12
EXPECTATIONS FOR GENERAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS IN 6 MONTHS (PCT “BETTER” - PCT “WORSE”) QUARTERLY
FEB MAR
50 30 10 -10 -30
97 '0 0 '0 3 '0 6 '0 9 '1 2
94
91
85
82
79
-50
88
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
76
Percent of Firms
70
OUTLOOK FOR BUSINESS EXPANSION (PCT “NOW IS A GOOD TIME”)
QUARTERLY
FEB MAR
“NO” for 24 QUARTERS
25 20 15 10 5
(SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
'1 2
'0 9
'0 6
'0 3
'0 0
97
94
91
88
85
82
79
0
76
Percent of Firms
30
BAD TIME TO EXPAND DUE TO THE POLITICAL CLIMATE QUARTERLY
FEB MAR
35 30 25 20 15 10 5
(SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
'1 3
'1 0
'0 4
'0 7
% OF THOSE SAYING “BAD TIME”
0
'0 1
Percent of Firms
40
REPORTED CHANGE IN PAST SALES (last 3 months vs prior 3) QUARTERLY
30
RECESSION ENDS
20 10 0 -10 -20 -30
'1 2
'0 9
'0 6
'0 3
'0 0
97
94
91
88
85
82
79
-40
[% "HIGHER" - % "LOWER", SEAS. ADJ.]
76
Percent of Firms
FEB MAR
EXPECTED REAL SALES QUARTERLY
FEB MAR
50
30 20 10 0 -10 -20
'1 2
'0 9
'0 6
'0 3
'0 0
97
94
91
88
82
79
-30
85
[% "HIGHER" - % "LOWER", SEAS. ADJ.]
76
Percent of Firms
40
LOAN DEMANDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE RECESSION PERCENT OF ALL FIRMS NOT WANTING A LOAN RECESSION STARTS
50 45 40
14
11
'0 8
'0 5
'0 2
99
96
35
93
Percent of Firms
55
FEB MAR
SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM FACING OWNERS INFLATION
45
CREDIT
35 30
FIRST MONTH IN EACH QUARTER + FEB,MAR
25 20 15
CREDIT: NO PROBLEM
10 5
12
'0 9
'0 6
'0 3
'0 0
97
94
91
88
85
82
79
0
76
Percent of Firms
40
AVERAGE CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT PER FIRM WORKERS PER FIRM
FEB MAR
0
-0.4
-0.8 QUARTERLY: FIRST MONTH IN EACH QUARTER
'0 0 '0 3 '0 6 '0 9 '1 2
97
94
91
88
85
82
-1.2
79
NUMBER OF WORKERS
0.4
PERCENT OF OWNERS INCREASING OR REDUCING EMPLOYMENT INCREASED
30
REDUCED
FIRST MONTH IN EACH QUARTER +FEB MAR
20 15 10 5
'1 2
'0 9
'0 6
'0 3
97 '0 0
91 94
85 88
0
79 82
Percent of Firms
25
JOB CREATION PLANS % PLAN INCREASE - % PLAN DECREASE QUARTERLY
FEB MAR
25
15 10 5 0 -5
'1 2
'0 9
'0 6
'0 3
'0 0
97
94
91
88
85
82
79
-10 76
Percent of Firms
20
PLANNED CAPITAL OUTLAYS (NEXT SIX MONTHS) QUARTERLY
FEB MAR
45
35 30 25 20
'0 1 '0 4 '0 7 '1 0 '1 3
98
95
92
89
86
83
80
15
77
Percent of Firms
40
TRICKLE DOWN
EXACTLY HOW HELPFUL IS TRANSPARENCY AND FORWARD GUIDANCE?
Stein said the dark side of collapsed risk premiums occurs if they return to normal abruptly in a way that causes larger economic effects than the initial compression. So the language that we used in the statement is considerable period. So I, you know, this is the kind of term it's hard to define. But, you know, probably means something on the order of around six months, that type of thing.