Don rissmiller

U.S. Economic Highlights Don Rissmiller June, 2016 Strategas Research Partners 212‐906‐0134 drissmiller@strategasrp.com

Key Macro Issues • • • • • •

U.S. economy at full employment.

Upswing in capex?

More churn in the labor market.

Productivity recovers in the U.S. Corporate profits and wages rise.

Fed normalizes, slowly.

U.S. Economy at Full Employment Civilian Unemployment Rate: 16 yr + SA, % 12

12

10

10

8

8

6

6

4

4

2

2 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 Sour ce: Bur eau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics

05

10

15

U.S. Economy at Full Employment Civilian Unemployment Rate: 16 yr + SA, % 12

12

10

10

8

8

6

6

4

4

2

2 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 Sour ce: Bur eau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics

05

10

15

Labor’s Share Rising U. S. Cor por ate Compensation % Cor por ate GDP

66

66

64

64

62

62

60

60

58

58

56

56 55 60 65 70 75 Sour ce: Haver Analytics

80

85

90

95

00

05

10

15

Business Confidence Key for Capex

Churn in the Labor Market Picking Up

Productivity Set to Reaccelerate

What’s Making Investors Uncomfortable?