U.S. Economic Highlights Don Rissmiller June, 2016 Strategas Research Partners 212‐906‐0134 drissmiller@strategasrp.com
Key Macro Issues • • • • • •
U.S. economy at full employment. Upswing in capex? More churn in the labor market. Productivity recovers in the U.S. Corporate profits and wages rise. Fed normalizes, slowly.
U.S. Economy at Full Employment Civilian Unemployment Rate: 16 yr + SA, % 12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 Sour ce: Bur eau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
05
10
15
U.S. Economy at Full Employment Civilian Unemployment Rate: 16 yr + SA, % 12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 Sour ce: Bur eau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
05
10
15
Labor’s Share Rising U. S. Cor por ate Compensation % Cor por ate GDP
66
66
64
64
62
62
60
60
58
58
56
56 55 60 65 70 75 Sour ce: Haver Analytics
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
15
Business Confidence Key for Capex
Churn in the Labor Market Picking Up
Productivity Set to Reaccelerate
What’s Making Investors Uncomfortable?