David_Kotok's_Comments_GIC-LeBow_AMT_Conference

Global Observations About Financial Markets April 2008

David R. Kotok Chairman & Chief Investment Officer

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Muni Madness

Source: Bloomberg

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 2

Muni Move Unprecedented Munis, Treasurys and the Implied Tax Rate 15 20-Year Treasury Yield 4/04/2008 = 4.37% ( )

12 10

8.6

12

8.0

10

7.4 6.8 6.3 5.8 5.4 5.0

8

7

7

6

6 20-Year Municipal Bond Yield 4/04/2008 = 4.90% ( )

4

5 4

3

3

4/04/2008 = 112.1% 112 Muni Yields as a % of Treasury Yields 104 Munis Undervalued 96 88 80 Mean = 85.0% 72 Munis Overvalued

(B470)

Current Implied Muni Yield Implied Rate= TaxRate =1Treasury Yield -12.1%

Munis Undervalued Munis Undervalued

If in the 35% tax rate, favor Munis on a yield basis If in the 15% tax rate, favor Munis on a yield basis

112 104 96 88 80 72 34.2 30.4 26.6 22.8 19.0 15.2 11.4 7.6 3.8 0.0 -3.8 -7.6 -11.4

1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

34.2 30.4 26.6 22.8 19.0 15.2 11.4 7.6 3.8 0.0 -3.8 -7.6 -11.4

Munis, Agencies and the Implied Tax Rate

15

8

5

Weekly Data 4/26/1991 - 4/04/2008 (Log Scale)

Weekly Data 1/08/1965 - 4/04/2008 (Log Scale)

4.6 4.2

20-Year Municipal Bond Yield 4/04/2008 = 4.90% ( )

96 93 90 87 84 81 78 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 (B471)

Source: Ned Davis B470, B471.

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

20-Year Agency Bond Yield 4/04/2008 = 5.00% ( )

Chart 3

8.6 8.0 7.4 6.8 6.3 5.8 5.4 5.0 4.6 4.2

Muni Yields as a % of Agency Yields

96 93 90 87 Mean = 83.3% 84 81 4/04/2008 = 97.9% 78 Munis Overvalued Current Implied Rate = 2.1% 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 Muni Yield 8 Implied Tax Rate = 1 Agency Yield 6 4 If in the 35% tax rate, favor Munis on a yield basis If in the 15% tax rate, favor Munis on a yield basis 2 Munis Undervalued

19921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008

Commercial Paper, Fed Funds & Eurodollar Daily Data 1/03/1989 - 4/11/2008

Commercial Paper, Fed Funds, & Eurodollar 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2

90-DayCommercialPaper 4/11/2008 = 2.83% ( )

Fed FundsTargetRate 4/11/2008 = 2.25% ( )

3-MonthEurodollar 4/11/2008 = 3.00% ( )

Commercial Paper minus Fed Funds Target Rate

100 75 50 25 0 -25 -50 -75

In Basis Points

4/11/2008 = 58 100 75 50 25 0 -25 -50 -75

Mean = 12

150 120 90 60 30 0 -30 -60

Eurodollar minus Fed Funds Target Rate

30

Eurodollar minus Commercial Paper

4/11/2008 = 75

150 120 90 60 30 0 -30 -60

4/11/2008 = 17

30

Mean = 16

15 0 -15

15 0 -15

-30 -45

-30 -45 Mean = 4

(B0122A)

M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J SD M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Source: Ned Davis B0122A.

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 4

T-Bills, Eurodollar, & Commercial Paper (3mo) Daily Data 4/10/2006 - 4/11/2008

T-Bills, Eurodollar, & Commercial Paper (3-Month) 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00

3-MonthT-Bill Yield 4/11/2008 = 1.17% ( )

3-MonthCommercialPaper 4/11/2008 = 2.83% ( )

5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00

3-MonthEurodollar 4/11/2008 = 3.00% ( )

Eurodollar minus T-Bill Yield

In basis points 210 180

210 180

150 120 90

150 120 90

Mean = 84

60 210 180 150 120 90 60

4/11/2008 = 183 Commercial Paper minus T-Bill Yield

In basis points

60 210 180 150 120 90 60

Mean = 75 4/11/2008 = 166

30

30

Eurodollar minus Commercial Paper

In basis points

20

20

10

10 Mean = 9

0

0

-10

-10

-20 (B0123)

4/11/2008 = 17 M

J

J

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O

N

D

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2007

F

M

A

M

Source: Ned Davis B0123.

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 5

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2008

F

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-20

Eurodollar, Asset-backed & Financial Commercial Paper (1 mo) Daily Data 4/07/2006 - 4/10/2008

Eurodollar, Asset-Backed & Financial Commercial Paper (1-Month) 6

6

5

5 1-MonthAsset-BackedCommercial Paper 4/10/2008 = 2.87% ( )

4

4

In basis points

3

Asset-Backed C.P. minus Eurodollar

80 60 40 20 0 -20 180

1-Month Eurodollar 4/10/2008 = 3.00% ( )

1-MonthFinancial CommercialPaper 4/10/2008 = 2.52% ( )

3

4/10/2008 = -13 80 60 40 20 0 -20

Mean = 4

In basis points

Asset-Backed C.P.minus Financial C.P.

4/10/2008 = 35

180

150

150

120

120

90

90

60

60

30

30

Mean = 20 In basis points

Eurodollar minus Financial C.P.

4/10/2008 = 48

100

100

80

80

60

60

40

40 Mean = 17

20 (B0123C)

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

2007

F

M

A

M

Source: Ned Davis B0123C.

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 6

J

20 J

A

S

O

N

D

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2008

F

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30-Day Nonfinancial Commercial Paper Rates Daily Data 4/07/2006 - 4/10/2008

30-Day Nonfinancial Commercial Paper Rates 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2

140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 (B0124)

AA Rate 4/10/2008 = 2.16% ( )

A2/P2 Rate 4/10/2008 = 2.94% ( )

M

J

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N

D

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2007

F

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O

4/10/2008 = 78 A2/P2 Rate minus AA Rate (In Basis Points)

30-Day Nonfinancial Commercial Paper Spread

Source: Ned Davis B0124.

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

6.0 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2

Chart 7

N

D

J

2008

F

M

A

140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

Is It Cheaper for Banks to Borrow From the Fed? Daily Data 1/08/2003 - 4/10/2008

Is it Cheaper for Banks to Borrow from the Fed? 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40

In Basis Points

Primary Discount Rate less Effective Fed Funds Rate

4/10/2008 = 19

180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40

4/10/2008 = -2

120

Cheaper to Borrow from Market

*Fed Changed to a Two-Tier Discount Rate System and Made it More Costly than Fed Funds on 1/09/2003

Cheaper to Borrow from Discount Window

Primary Discount Rate less 30-Day AA Financial Commercial Paper Rate

120 100

100

80

80

60

60 Cheaper to Borrow from Market

40

40

20

20

0

0

-20

-20

-40

Cheaper to Borrow from Discount Window

-40 Primary Discount Rate less 1-Month Eurodollar

120

4/10/2008 = -50

120

100

100

80 60

80 60 Cheaper to Borrow from Market

40

40

20

20

0 -20

0 -20

-40

-40

Cheaper to Borrow from Discount Window

(B0123A)

M

M

J

S

N

J

M

2004

M

J

S

N

J

M

2005

M

J

S

N

Source: Ned Davis B0123A.

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 8

J

M

2006

M

J

S

N

J

M

2007

M

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S

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2008

Credit Default Swap Spreads I (Inv Grade and Emg Mkts) Daily Data 3/21/2005 - 4/10/2008

Credit Default Swap Spreads I (Investment Grade and Emerging Markets) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40

In Basis Points

North America Investment Grade Index

4/10/2008 = 121.58

Source: Dow Jones Indexes

4/10/2008 = 283.75

North America Investment Grade High Volatility Index

400 350 300 250 200 150 100

200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 400 350 300 250 200 150 100

300 270 240 210 180 150 120

Emerging Markets Index

4/10/2008 = 242.36

300 270 240 210 180 150 120

270

Emerging Markets Diversified Index

4/10/2008 = 219.27

270

240

240

210

210

180

180

150

150

120

120

90

90

(B385)

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F M

2006

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

Source: Ned Davis B385.

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 9

D

J

F M

2007

A

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S O

N

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2008

M

A

CDS Spreads Hit New Highs Daily Data 3/21/2005 - 4/10/2008

Credit Default Swap Spreads I (Investment Grade and Emerging Markets 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 400 350 300 250 200 150 100

In Basis Points

North America Investment Grade Index

4/10/2008 = 121.58

Source: Dow Jones Indexes

4/10/2008 North America Investment Grade High Volatility Index = 283.75

200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 400 350 300 250 200 150 100

300 270 240 210 180 150 120

Emerging Markets Index

4/10/2008 = 242.36

300 270 240 210 180 150 120

270

Emerging Markets Diversified Index

4/10/2008 = 219.27

270

240

240

210

210

180

180

150

150

120

120

90

90

(B385)

A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A

2006

2007

2008

Credit Default Swap Spreads II (High Yield) In Basis Points

North America Crossover Index

Daily Data 4/13/2005 - 4/10/2008

4/10/2008 = 280.00

450 400 350 300 250 200 150

450 400 350 300 250 200 150 North America High Yield Index

800

4/10/2008 = 654.24

800

700 600 500

700 600 500

400 300 200

400 300 200

Source: Dow Jones Indexes

600 540 480 420 360 300 240 180 720 660 600 540 480 420 360 300 240 (B385A)

North America High Yield BB Index

4/10/2008 = 412.52

North America High Yield B Index

4/10/2008 = 665.28

600 540 480 420 360 300 240 180 720 660 600 540 480 420 360 300 240

M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A

2006

2007

2008

Note: The North America Investment Grade Index is a portfolio of credit-default swaps of 125 investment grade entities domiciled in North America, distributed among 5 sectors.

The Crossover Index contains issues straddling the divide between speculative and investment grade.

Source: Ned Davis B385, B385a.

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 10

Mortgage Spread at 5-year High Monthly Data 4/30/1971 - 3/31/2008

10-Year Treasury Note Yield vs Conventional Mortgage Rate 18

18 10-Year Treasury Note Yield 3/31/2008 = 3.51% ( )

17 16

17 16

15

15

14

14

13

13

12

12

Conventional 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate 3/31/2008 = 5.97% ( )

11 10

11 10

9

9

8

8

7

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

440 400 360 320 280 240 200 160 120 80 (B337B)

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

3/31/2008 = 246

(In Basis Points)

Mean = 168

Conventional Mortgage Rate Less 10-Year Treasury Note Yield

Source: Ned Davis B337B.

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

1985

1984

1983

1982

1981

1980

1979

1978

1977

1976

1975

1974

1973

1972

Correlation Coefficient = 0.98

Chart 11

440 400 360 320 280 240 200 160 120 80

Financials – Returning to Underweight Highs Daily Data 4/10/2006 - 4/10/2008

OAS on Agencies, Mortgages, Corporates, and High Yield U.S. Agencies

90 80 70 60 50 40 30

180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40

Mortgage-Backed Securities

180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40

300 270 240 210 180 150 120

U.S. Investment-Grade Corporate Credit

300 270 240 210 180 150 120

90 80 70 60 50 40 30

OAS = Option-Adjusted Spread (in basis points)

Source: Lehman Brothers

U.S. High Yield

800

800

700

700

600

600

500

500

400

400

300

300

(B384)

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

2007

F

M

A

M

Source: Ned Davis B384.

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 12

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2008

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Spreads Keep Widening?

Weekly Data 7/07/1989 - 4/04/2008

OAS on Agencies, Mortgages, Corporates, and High Yield 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

U.S. Agencies

Mean = 30

In Basis Points Mortgage-Backed Securities

140 120

140 120

100

100

80 60

80 60

Mean = 66

40

40

270 U.S. Investment-Grade Corporate Credit 240 210 180 150 120 Mean = 107 90 60 1000 900 U.S. High Yield 800 700 600 Mean = 520 OAS = Option-Adjusted Spread 500 NDR Estimates prior to August 15, 2000 400 300

270 240 210 180 150 120 90 60 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

(B368)

1990

Source: Lehman Brothers

In basis points

75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30

30-Year Dollar Swap Spread 4/10/2008 = 36 Scale Right

85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50

10-Year Dollar Swap Spread 4/10/2008 = 63 Scale Left

110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40

5-Year Dollar Swap Spread 4/10/2008 = 83 Scale Right 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 (B386)

Source: Ned Davis B368, B386

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Daily Data 4/07/2006 - 4/10/2008

U.S. Dollar Swap Spreads

Chart 13

2-Year Dollar Swap Spread 4/10/2008 = 81 Scale Left M

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2007

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2008

M A

Dash for Cash Historical Treasury Yield Curve Perspective 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Treasury Yie;ds 3/31/08 Instrument Yield (%) Long-Term Bonds ( ) 4.28 91-Day Bills ( ) 1.26

Shaded Areas Represent National Bureau of Economic Research Recessions

4

4

Long-Term Treasurys minus T-Bill Yields

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

0

-1

-1

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

1975

1970

1965

1960

1955

1950

1945

-3 3/31/2008 = 3.02% 1940

-3 1935

-2

1930

-2

(B12)

Daily Data 4/10/2006 - 4/11/2008

Monthly Data 12/31/1929 - 3/31/2008

T-Bills, Eurodollar, & Commercial Paper (3-Month) 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00

3-Month Eurodollar 4/11/2008 = 3.00% ( )

3-Month T-Bill Yield 4/11/2008 = 1.17% ( )

Eurodollar minus T-Bill Yield

In basis points 210 180

210 180

150 120 90

150 120 90

Mean = 84

60 210 180 150 120 90 60

4/11/2008 = 183 Commercial Paper minus T-Bill Yield

In basis points

60 210 180 150 120 90 60

Mean = 75 4/11/2008 = 166

30

30

Eurodollar minus Commercial Paper

In basis points

20

20

10

10 Mean = 9

0

0

-10

-10

-20 (B0123)

Source: Ned Davis B12, B0123.

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

3-Month Commercial Paper 4/11/2008 = 2.83% ( )

5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00

Chart 14

4/11/2008 = 17 M

J

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N

D

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F M

2007

A

M

J

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S O

N

D J

F

2008

M A

-20

Were the Fed’s Moves Successful?

Daily Data 4/10/2006 - 4/10/2008

Daily Data 12/04/2001 - 4/10/2008

OAS on Agencies, Mortgages, Corporates, and High Yield 90 80 70 60 50 40 30

U.S. Agencies OAS = Option-Adjusted Spread (in basis points)

300 270 240 210 180 150 120

180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40

U.S. Investment-Grade Corporate Credit

Source: Lehman Brothers

U.S. High Yield

800 700 600 500 400 300 (B384)

90 80 70 60 50 40 30

Mortgage-Backed Securities

180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40

300 270 240 210 180 150 120 800 700 600 500 400 300

M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A

2007

30-Day Eurodollar Rate vs 30-Day Overnight Indexed Swap Rate

2008

5.7 5.4 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.2

30-Day EurodollarRate 4/10/2008 = 3.00%

(

)

30-Day Overnight Indexed Swap Rate 4/10/2008 = 2.05% ( )

Light shaded areas represent Fed Tightening Cycles Dark shaded areas represent Fed Easing Cycles

5.7 5.4 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.2

J M M J S N J M M J S N J MM J S N J MM J S N J MM J S N J MM J S N J M

2002 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

4/10/2008 = 95

In Basis Points

Money Markets Tight

Mean = 10

140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

30-Day Eurodollar Rate Less 30-Day Overnight Indexed Swap Rate

(B0123E)

Source: Ned Davis B384, B0123E.

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

The Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) Rate Provides Market Expectations of Fed Funds Over the Next 30 Days

Chart 15

Ted Spread, Fed Funds and TAF 6 3 MO LIBOR Term Auction Facility

Fed Funds

5 3 MO T-BILL

4

3

2 YELLOW AREA IS THE TED SPREAD LONDON INTERBANK OFFERED RATE (USD-LIBOR), 3 MONTH

1

FEDERAL FUNDS: TARGET RATE, PERCENT - U.S. TREASURY BILL: BENCHMARK, 3-MONTH - YIELD, PERCENT - U.S.

TAF

0 Jan-07

Mar-07

May-07

Jul-07

Sep-07

Nov-07

Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the British Bankers' Association. Data through 4/11/08.

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 16

Jan-08

Mar-08

Factors Adding to Reserves 1,000,000 Grey: Special Drawing Rights

950,000

Treasury Currency Special Drawing Rights

900,000

Treasury Currency

Gold Stock Gold Stock

850,000

Other Credit

Red: Primary Credit

Other Fed Assets

Float

800,000

750,000

P rim Dlr Cred Fac

Term Auction Facility

Securities

Other Fed Assets

700,000

Other Credit Extension Primary Dealer Credit Facility Seasonal Credit Secondary Credit Primary Credit

650,000 Term Auction Facility 600,000

RPs Securities

550,000 Jun-07

Aug-07

Oct-07

Dec-07

Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the British Bankers' Association. Data through 4/11/08.

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 17

Feb-08

Global Bond Risk Premiums Were Shrinking Outside the United States (1/2/98 – 4/11/08) 1800

400

LTCM

Basis Points

1400 1200

17-Mar-08

350

1600

9/11

Argentina default

1000

300 250 18-Jul-07

200 9-May-06

800

21-Feb-07

150 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08

600 400 200

Daily Spreads of JPMorgan's Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI)+ Sovereign over US Benchmark Bond Yields. Daily data through 04/11/08.

0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: JP Morgan and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 18

Global Bond Risk Premiums Were Shrinking Outside the United States Green EAFE; Red S&P500; Blue EMBI 2000

250

First Japanese Rate Hike (Jan-06 to Aug-06)

1520 2400

240

2300

220 1420

210

2100

210

2000 1900

1320

170 160 150

1600

220

190 180

1700

2200

140 Jan-06

1420

200

200 1800

1520

240 230

230 1900

250

Second Japanese Rate Hike (Sep-06 to May-07)

1800

190 180

1320

170 160

1700

5/9/06

1220 1600 Apr-06

140

Sep-06

Jun-06

2/21/07

150

Nov-06

Mar-07

1220 May-07

Daily Spreads of JPMorgan's Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI)+ Sovereign over US Benchmark Bond Yields. Daily last price of S&P500 index and EAFE index. Daily data through 5/31/07. Source: JP Morgan, Bloomberg, MSCI, and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 19

Sub Prime Blowup Outside the United States Green EAFE; Red S&P500; Blue EMBI (June 2007 to Present)

2600 390

1650 JPM / Bear Stearns 3/17/08

2400 340

1550

2200 2000 290

1450

1800

240

1600 1350 190

1400

Bear Stearns 7/18/07

1200 140

1250

J un-07 J ul -07 A ug-07 Sep-07 Nov -07 Dec -07 Feb-08 M ar -08 A pr -08 Daily Spreads of JPMorgan's Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI)+ Sovereign over US Benchmark Bond Yields. Daily last price of S&P500 index and EAFE index. Daily data through 04/11/08. Source: JP Morgan, MSCI, and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 20

Global Bond Risk Premiums Were Shrinking Inside the United States (1/7/98 – 04/11/08) 800

Argentina default

1200

9/11

1100

Basis Points

700 600 500

1000 900

17-Mar-08

400

LTCM

300

18-Jul-07 9-May-06

200 Jan-06

800

21-Feb-07

Jan-07

700 600 500 400 300 200

CS High Yield Index II (formerly DLJ High Yield Index) Spread to Worst expressed in basis points. Weekly data through 04/11/08.

100 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Bloomberg and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 21

Jan-08

Global Bond Risk Premiums Were Shrinking Inside the United States Green EAFE; Red S&P500; Blue EMBI First Japanese Rate Hike (Jan-06 to Aug-06)

2000

400

1520

2400

400

Second Japanese Rate Hike (Sep-06 to May-07) 1520

1470

1900

2300 2200

350

1420

350

2100 1800

1370

300

1320

1700

1420

2000 1900

300

1320

1800 1270

5/9/06 1600

1700

250

Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun06 06 06 06 06 06

1220

Jul06

1600

Aug06

2/21/07 250

Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 07

CS High Yield Index II (formerly DLJ High Yield Index) weekly Spread to Worst expressed in basis points. Daily last price of S&P500 index and EAFE index. Data through 5/31/07. Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 22

1220

Sub Prime Blowup Inside the United States Green EAFE; Red S&P500; Blue EMBI (June 2007 to Present)

2600

JPM / Bear Stearns 3/17/08

800

1600

2400 700

1500

2200 600

2000 1400

500

1800 1600

400 1300

1400

300

1200

200

Jun-07

Bear Stearns 7/18/07

1200

Aug-07

Oct-07

Dec-07

Feb-08

Apr-08

CS High Yield Index II (formerly DLJ High Yield Index) weekly Spread to Worst expressed in basis points. Daily last price of S&P500 index.

Data through 04/11/08. Source: Bloomberg and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

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Chart 23

Three Ways to View The World - 1998 1998 PPP ($mm)

1998 GDP ($mm)

World’s 10 Largest Stock Markets ($mm) Measured in USD at 12/31/98 exchange rates

World Total

40,219,240

%

World Total

29,633,310

%

World Total 25,683,171

%

1. United States

8,650,777

21.5

1. United States

8,694,600

29.3

1. United States 12,926,177

2. China**

4,185,190

10.4

2. Japan

3,931,051

13.3

2. Japan

2,495,757

9.7

3. Japan

3,114,543

7.7

3. Euronext*

2,208,083

7.5

3. U.K.

2,372,738

9.2

4. Euronext*

2,213,188

5.5

4. Germany

2,144,493

7.2

4. Euronext*

1,903,278

7.4

5. India

2,127,580

5.3

5. U.K.

1,423,379

4.8

5. Germany

1,093,962

4.3

6. Germany

1,930,148

4.8

6. China**

1,111,543

3.8

6. Switzerland

689,199

2.7

7. U.K.

1,413,974

3.5

7. Italy

1,196,631

4.0

7. China**

579,,427

2.3

8. Italy

1,333,139

3.3

8. Spain

588,011

2.0

8. Italy

569,732

2.2

9. Brazil

1,140,947

2.8

9. Canada

606,909

2.1

9. Canada

547,841

2.1

865,820

2.1

413,825

1.4

402,163

1.6

11,732,128

29.2

6,256,091

21.1

Rest of World 2,102,897

8.2

10. Russia Rest of World

10. India Rest of World (171 Countries)

* Euronext includes Belgium, France, Netherlands, and Portugal. ** China includes China and Hong Kong. *** India includes National Stock Exchange of India and Mumbai Exchange.

Source: World Bank Data, World Federation of Stock Exchanges, and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors.

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 24

10. Spain

(36 exchanges)

50.3

Three Ways to View The World - 2006 2006 PPP ($mm)

2006 GDP ($mm)

World’s 10 Largest Stock Markets ($mm) Measured in USD at 12/31/06 exchange rates

World Total

66,582,750

%

48,244,879

%

1. United States

13,201,819

19.8

1. United States

13,201,819

27.4

2. China**

10,310,539

15.5

2. Japan

4,340,133

9.0

2. Japan

4,614,069

9.1

3. India

4,247,361

6.4

3. Euronext*

3,472,884

7.2

3. U.K.

3,794,310

7.5

4. Japan

4,202,524

6.3

4. Germany

2,906,681

6.0

4. Euronext*

3,708,150

7.3

5. Euronext*

3,088,858

4.6

5. China**

2,857,869

5.9

5.

China**

2,860,418

5.6

6. Germany

2,570,810

3.9

6. U.K.

2,345,015

4.9

6.

Canada

1,700,708

3.4

7. U.K.

2,118,130

3.2

7. Italy

1,844,749

3.8

7. Germany

1,637,610

3.2

8. Italy

1,753,663

2.6

8. Canada

1,251,463

2.6

8. India***

1,592,994

3.1

9. Brazil

1,707,712

2.6

9. Spain

1,223,988

2.5

9. Spain

1,322,915

2.6

10. Russia

1,704,036

2.6

10. Brazil

1,067,962

2.2

1,212,308

2.4

21,677,298

32.5

13,732,316

28.5

Rest of World 8,622,794

17.0

Rest of World

World Total

Rest of World (171 Countries)

* Euronext includes Belgium, France, Netherlands, and Portugal. ** China includes China and Hong Kong. *** India includes National Stock Exchange of India and Mumbai Exchange.

Source: World Bank Data, World Federation of Stock Exchanges, and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors.

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 25

World Total 50,635,248 1. United States 19,568,972

10. Switzerland

(36 exchanges)

% 38.6

World Measured by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) 1998 (Total $40.219 trillion)

China 10.4%

India Japan Euronext 5.3% 7.7% 5.5%

United States 21.5%

2006 (Total $66.583 trillion)

Japan 6.3%

Germany 4.8% U.K. 3.5% Italy 3.3% Brazil 2.8%

China 15.5%

India 6.4% U.K. 3.2% Italy 2.6% Brazil 2.6% Russia 2.6%

United States 19.8%

Russia 2.2% Rest of World 29.2%

Germany 3.9%

Source: World Federation of Stock Exchanges, World Bank Data, and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Euronext 4.6%

Chart 26

Rest of World 32.5%

World Measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 1998 (Total $29.633 trillion)

Japan 13.3%

2006 (Total $48.245 trillion)

Japan 9.0%

Euronext 7.5% Germany 7.2% U.K. 4.8% China 3.8% Italy 4.0% Spain 2.0%

United States 29.3%

Rest of World 21.1%

Euronext 7.2%

U.K. 4.9% China 5.9% Italy 3.8%

United States 27.4%

Spain 2.5% Brazil 2.2%

Canada India 2.0% 1.4%

Canada 2.6% Rest of World 28.5%

Source: World Federation of Stock Exchanges, World Bank Data, and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Germany 6.0%

Chart 27

World Measured by Stock Market Capitalization 1998 (Total $25.683 trillion)

Japan 9.7%

U.K. 9.2%

2006 (Total $50.635 trillion)

Japan 9.1%

Euronext Germany 7.4% 4.3% Sw itzerland 2.7% China 2.3%

United States 50.3%

Italy 2.2% Canada 2.1% Spain 1.6% Rest of World 8.2%

United States 38.6%

Source: World Federation of Stock Exchanges, World Bank Data, and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 28

U.K. 7.5%

Euronext 7.3%

China 5.6% Canada 3.4% Germany 3.2% India 3.1% Spain 2.6% Switzerland 2.4%

Rest of World 17.0%

Look What Happened Since 2006 Stock Market Capitalization October 2007 (Total $63.050 trillion)

2006 (Total $50.635 trillion)

Japan 9.1%

U.K. 7.5%

Euronext 7.3%

Euronext U.K. 7.0% 6.7%

China 5.6% Canada 3.4%

China 10.7% Canada 3.6%

Japan 7.3%

Germany 3.4% India 4.9%

Germany 3.2%India 3.1%

Spain 2.9%

Spain 2.6% United States 38.6%

Switzerland 2.1%

Switzerland 2.4%

United States 33.2%

Rest of World 17.0%

Source: World Federation of Stock Exchanges, World Bank Data, and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 29

Rest of World 18.2%

Share of World Stock Market Value: Selected Mature Countries October 2007 (Total $63.050 trillion)

1998 (Total $25.683 trillion) OMX 2% Canada Australia Norway Belgium Portugal

Canada 4%

OMX

Norway 1%

Rest of World

France

Switzerland 2%

U.S. 50%

Switzerland Germany UK Austria Spain Luxemborg Italy Ireland Finland Euronext

Germany 3% UK 7% Austria 0% Spain 3%

Japan

Luxemborg 0%

Netherlands

Source: World Federation of Stock Exchanges and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Rest of World 28.5%

Chart 30

US US 40.4% 43.0%

U.S. 33.2%

ROW 53.5% ROW 48.8% Italy 2% Ireland 0%

Euronext 7%

Japan 7%

Share of World Stock Market Value: Selected Emerging Countries 1998 (Total $25.683 trillion)

Rest of World 44%

US 50%

6%

Indonesia Iran Israel Korea Malaysia Philippines Sri Lanka Taiwan Thailand Turkey Singapore South Africa Mauritius Egypt Poland Hungary Slovenia Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Peru Mexico

Source: World Federation of Stock Exchanges and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 31

October 2007 (Total $63.050 trillion)

Others 11.8%

Rest of World 39.0%

US US 40.4% 43.0% ROW 53.5% ROW India 48.8% 5.0% China 11.0%

US 33.2%

Look What Happened Since October 2007 Stock Market Capitalization October 2007 (Total $63.050 trillion) Euronext U.K. 7.0% 6.7%

January 2008 (Total $55.573 trillion)

China 10.7%

U.K. 6.3%

Canada 3.6%

Japan 7.3%

Germany 3.4% India 4.9%

Euronext 6.7%

China 10.9% Canada 3.7%

Japan 8.4%

Germany 3.3% India 5.1%

Spain 2.9%

Spain 2.9%

Switzerland 2.1% United States 33.2%

Rest of World 18.2%

United States 33.4%

Source: World Federation of Stock Exchanges, World Bank Data, and Cumberland Advisors. Š Cumberland Advisors

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 32

Switzerland 2.2% Rest of World 17.2%

Growth Differentials Between the US and the ROW 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%

EM 8.0%

US 4.2%

EM OECD 3.0% ex US 1.6%

1998

US 1.9%

EM 7%

OECD ex US 3.2% US 2%

2007

OECD ex US 3%

2008

Source:IMF. OECD Countries include Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States. Data as of 3/31/08.

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 33

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 34

About Cumberland Advisors Cumberland Advisors supervises approximately $900 million in separate account assets for individuals, institutions, retirement plans, government entities, and cash management portfolios. Cumberland manages portfolios for clients in 39 states, the District of Columbia, and in countries outside the U.S. Cumberland Advisors is an SEC registered investment adviser.

Munis, Taxables, ETFs Cumberland’s portfolio management efforts emphasize long lasting relationships and continuous dialogue among clients, their consultants, tax advisors, accountants, estate planners and their assigned portfolio management contact at Cumberland.

Cumberland offers several different investment portfolio management styles. Our investment strategy is described in detail on our web site.

Fixed Income All of our fixed-income offerings are total return strategies, but can take the client’s current income needs into consideration. Our fixed income styles are Tax-Free Municipal Bonds, Taxable Bonds, and Short Term Investment Program.

Stocks Cumberland uses Exchange-Traded Funds to manage global equities. Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are securities that mimic the price performance and dividend yield of an index, or a basket, of securities. Cumberland uses ETFs as building blocks in crafting a portfolio, investing in attractive equity sectors, industries, market capitalization strata, styles and regions. Our equity portfolios are U.S. Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF) Equity, International Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF) Equity, Emerging Markets Exchange Traded Funds, and Global Multi-Asset Class Exchange Traded Funds.

Balanced Accounts Cumberland can blend the strategies presented above to create a balanced mix of stocks and bonds.

For further information about Cumberland Advisors, please visit our website at www.cumber.com.

614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com

Chart 35