David Kotok Feb 2105

Global InterdependenceCenter Conference Milan, Italy David Kotok Chairman & Chief Investment Officer Cumberland AdvisorsInc. February 21, 2005

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Bonds are No Longer Stable Percent 10

Moody’s AAA Monthly Returns 1919-2005 6-13-2003 X

6

2

-2

-6

19 19 19 24 19 29 19 34 19 39 19 44 19 49 19 54 19 59 19 64 19 69 19 74 19 79 19 84 19 89 19 94 19 99 20 04

-10

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Record High Debt

300

300

Total Credit Market Debt as a % of GDP

290

290

(quarterly data 12/31/1922 – 6/30/2004)

280

280

270

270

6/30/2004 6/30/2004

260 250

Debt = $35.182 GDP = $11.643

Trillion Trillion

260

= 302.2%

250

240

240 Annual interpolated GDP (including estimates prior to 1929) used prior to 1946.

230 220

230 220

Domestic Nonfinancial Debt used prior to 1946. As of December, 1946

210

210

Domestic Nonfinancial Debt represented 99.4% of Total Credit Market Debt.

200

200

190

190

180

180

170

170

160

160

150

150

140

140

130

130 1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Š Copyright 2004 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. NDR Disclaimer. For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo.

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Actual Balances are Growing 4500 4000 3500

OUTSTANDING STOCK OF TREASURYS (Bn. USD$) LESS FOREIGN OFFICIAL & FED HOLDINGS (Bn. USD$)

3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500

Source: BCA Research

19 85 Q 1 19 85 Q 4 19 86 Q 3 19 87 Q 2 19 88 Q 1 19 88 Q 4 19 89 Q 3 19 90 Q 2 19 91 Q 1 19 91 Q 4 19 92 Q 3 19 93 Q 2 19 94 Q 1 19 94 Q 4 19 95 Q 3 19 96 Q 2 19 97 Q 1 19 97 Q 4 19 98 Q 3 19 99 Q 2 20 00 Q 1 20 00 Q 4 20 01 Q 3 20 02 Q 2 20 03 Q 1 20 03 Q 4 20 04 Q 3

0

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Relative to GDP, Marketable Treasuries are Flat 50

OUTSTANDING STOCK OF TREASURYS (% OF GDP) 45

LESS FOREIGN OFFICIAL & FED HOLDINGS (% OF GDP) 40

35

30

25

20

Source: BCA Research

19 8

5 Q 1 19 85 Q 4 19 86 Q 3 19 87 Q 2 19 88 Q 1 19 88 Q 4 19 89 Q 3 19 90 Q 2 19 91 Q 1 19 91 Q 4 19 92 Q 3 19 93 Q 2 19 94 Q 1 19 94 Q 4 19 95 Q 3 19 96 Q 2 19 97 Q 1 19 97 Q 4 19 98 Q 3 19 99 Q 2 20 00 Q 1 20 00 Q 4 20 01 Q 3 20 02 Q 2 20 03 Q 1 20 03 Q 4 20 04 Q 3

15

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Corporate Profits Very High Corporate Profits as a percent of Nominal GDP 1947 - 2005 9%

Record High

Quarterly corporate after-tax profits with CCA and IVA adjustments in relation to Nominal GDP from 1947 to 2003.

The capital consumption and inventory valuation adjustments convert depreciation and inventory withdrawals reported on an historical-cost basis to the replacement-cost measures used in the national income and product accounts. Data source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, (FRED) St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank and Cumberland Advisors, Inc.

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3% 1947

1951

1955

1959

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS, INC. A Subsidiary of Harleysville National Bank

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1963

1967

1971

1975

1979

1983

1987

1991

1995

1999

2003

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After-Tax Corporate Profit Growth 1959 - 2005 (YOY, %) 70

Percent (%) Quarterly corporate after-tax profits with CCA and IVA adjustments, year over year (%). Data source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, (FRED) St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank and Cumberland Advisors, Inc.

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 1959

Seven Quarters Negative 2000.1-2001.3

1963

1967

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS, INC. A Subsidiary of Harleysville National Bank

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1971

1975

1979

1983

1987

1991

1995

1999

2003

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Corporate Profits and Stock Market Capitalization as a percent of Nominal GDP 1981 - 2005 9%

8%

7%

6%

P e r c e nt ( %)

Quarterly corporate after-tax profits w ith CCA and IVA adjustments in relation to Nominal GDP from 1981 to 2001. The capital consumption and inventory valuation adjustments convert depreciation and inventory w ithdraw als reported on an historical-cost basis to the replacement-cost measures used in the national income and product accounts. Data source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, Ned Davis Research, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Cumberland Advisors Inc.

170

145 NASDAQ Bubble

120

95

5%

4%

70 Corporate Profits as a percent of Nominal GDP Stock Market Total Capitalization as a Percent of GDP

3% 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

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45

20

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Three Ways to View the World The World’s 10 Largest Stock Markets

PPP

GDP

NOTE: World Total 51,766,267

NOTE: World Total 36,356,240

1. United States 10,871,095

1. United States

2. China

6,435,838

3. Japan

Measured in U.S. dollars @ 01/31/05 exchange rates

10,881,609

1.

United States 52.72%

2. Japan

4,326,444

2.

U.K.

11.24%

3,582,515

3. Germany

2,400,655

3.

Japan

9.67%

4. India

3,096,239

4. U.K.

1,794,858

4.

France

4.20%

5. Germany

2,279,134

5. France

1,747,973

5.

Germany

3.04%

6. France

1,632,119

6. Italy

1,465,895

6.

Switzerland

7. U.K.

1,606,853

7. China

1,409,852

7.

Canada

2.89%

8. Italy

1,559,321

8. Spain

836,100

8.

Australia

2.31%

9. Brazil

1,371,655

9. Canada

834,390

9.

Netherlands

2.15%

10. Russian Fed. 1,318,827

10. Mexico

626,080

10. Italy

11. Canada

11. Korea, Rep.

605,331

963,550

3.00%

1.91% Total: 93.12% Rest of the World 6.88% Total: 100%

Source: World Bank Data 2003, MSCI, FRB., Cumberland Advisors, and Laffer Associates.

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