D'Arvisenet PRESENTATION-Philadelphia Feb 0509 by Global Interdependence Center

Titre de la présentation

GLOBAL MONETARY and ECONOMIC OUTLOOK with a focus on EUROLAND Philadelphia, June 2009

Philippe D’ARVISENET, Global Chief Economist, Economic Research Department

THE CONTEXT The worse recession since WW2 

It is synchronized and comes with a financial crisis, both make things worse



Deficit countries and surplus countries are equally affected as a result of the unwinding of global imbalances

Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

Is the worst behind : 

The financial crisis is not over



Distinguish first and second derivatives

Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

Headwinds that mitigate (or will) and tailwinds getting stronger 

Inventories adjustment

 Oil

prices

 Housing

 Interest

 Fiscal

sector

rates

policy

Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

But ingredients for disappointment still lie ahead 

Lagging variables : employment, defaults...

 The

consolidation of households balance sheets... will take time and keep a drag on growth

 Limits

of fiscal stimulus

Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

Inflation or deflation : you can’t fear both simultaneously  Output gap and unemployment up globally  

 



They are to keep exerting a downward pressure on underlying inflation Central Banks can’t follow a Taylor rule that would suggest a policy rate of -5%! Shift to unorthodox measures : credit easing / quantitative easing Too much money doesn’t always chase too few goods (money multiplier drops) Central banks exit strategy

Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 1

DECOUPLING WAS JUST A DREAM

Real GDP annual growth, % 8 Developing countries

World 4

-2 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 0708e09f sources: IMF, BNPParibas Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 2

Interest rate spread, basis points 350 300

Euribor 3m - ECB's Repo rate

250

Libor $ 3m - Fed Funds target

200 150 100 50 0 -50 99

sources: ECB, Federal Reserve,BBA Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 3

FINANCIAL CHANNELS

Europe, iTraxx Main (on-the-run) 250 S2

07-05

01-06

S10

07-06

01-07

07-07

01-08

07-08

01-09

S11

200

150

100

0 01-05

source: BNP Parib as

Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 4

FINANCIAL CHANNELS

Europe, iTraxx Crossover (on-the-run) 1400 S2

07-05

01-06

07-06

S10

01-07

07-07

01-08

07-08

01-09

S11

1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 01-05

source: BNP Paribas

Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 5

FINANCIAL CHANNELS : REASSESSMENT IN RISK AFFECTED EUROLAND

10-year interest rate spread, basis points 160 France - Germany

140

Italy - Germany

120

Spain - Germany

100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 99

source: Reuters Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 6

FINANCIAL CHANNELS

Senior 5 year CDS, basis points

900 800 700 600 500

Poland Hungary Romania

400

Lithuania

300

Slovakia

200

Czech Republic

100 0 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

source: CMA Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

EUROLAND The drop in activity has been more impressive than in the US, with differences across countries (Spain, Germany, etc..) both in magnitude and the drivers (exports and industry, housing sector) Headwinds: labor market, incomes, financing conditions, level of debt... Disinflation and the risk of deflation Monetary policy: did rates hit the bottom? ECB balance sheet to keep increasing? Towards quantitative easing? Fiscal policy : not as aggressive as in the US ... but automatic stabilizers are more important, margins of maneuver differ across countries.

Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 7

EUROLAND IN A DEEP RECESSION

Real GDP growth, y/y % 6 4 2 0 Germany

-2

France

-4

Italy

-6

Spain

-8 92

source: Eurostat Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 8

Exports of G&S, volume, y/y % 20 15 10 5 0 -5

Germany France

-10

Italy

-15

Spain

-20 92

source: Eurostat Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 9

Household consumption, volume, y/y % 8 6 4 2 0 Germany

-2

France Italy

-4

Spain

-6 92

source: Eurostat Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 10

Euro zone: composite PMI and real GDP growth

65 60

Real GDP, q/q , %

0 50 -1

Composite PMI

-2

40 35

-3 98

sources: NTC, Eurostat Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 11

6 4

Euro zone: employment & real GDP growth, y/y %

GDP

2 0 Employment

-2 -4 -6

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 sources: Eurostat, OECD Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 12

EMPLOYMENT TO CONTRACT

Euro zone: labour market

12 10

Unemployment rate, % 8 6 4 Total employment, y/y % 2 0 -2 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 source: Eurostat Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 13

Euro zone: household debt as % disposable income 85

75 2 70 year(i) - year(i-1)

65 actual 60

-2 99

sources: ECB, Eurostat Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 14

Euro zone: wages growth & unemployment change 4 3

Nominal wages, y/y %

2 1 0

Unemployment rate, annual change, % (2-year lagged)

-1 -2 96

sources: ECB, Eurostat Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 15

Housing starts, index 01/95=100 300 (1-year moving average)

Germany

250

France Spain

200 150 100 50 0 95

sources: Buba, Insee, Ine Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 16

Real estate price, indice Q1/1997 = 100

320

Spain 280 France 240 200 USA 160 120 Germany 80 97

2000

sources: Ministerio de Economia, Insee, EFHEO, Bundesbank Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 17

Euro zone, consumer surveys: economic situation & purchases 5

-10

-12

-5

-14

-10 -15

-16

-20

-18

-25 -30 -35

-20

Major purchases over next 12 months

-22

Economic situation over next 12 months

-40

-24

-45

-26 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

source: European Commission Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 18

Euro zone: unit labour cost and GDP deflator

(y/y % change)

Unit labour cost

Labour productivity GDP deflator

3 2 1 0 -1 -2 96

sources: ECB, Eurostat Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 19

Euro zone: gross operating surplus of nonfinancial corporations 41

4 (as % of gross value added of the sector) Net saving

3 Gross operating surplus

0 99

source: ECB Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 20

Non residential investment, volume, y/y % 15 France

12 9

Euro zone

6 3 0 -3 -6 Germany

-9 -12 92

source: OECD Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 21

Euro zone: real growth of exports & imports, y/y % 15 10 5 Exports of G&S

Imports of G&S

-5 -10 -15 -20 96

source: Eurostat Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 22

Euro zone: ECB policy rates and inflation 5

ECB short-term repo rate

4 Total inflation

3 2 Core inflation

ECB deposit rate

0 -1 1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

sources: Eurostat, ECB

Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 23

Euro zone: labour productivity & real GDP growth, y/y %

6 4

Real GDP

2 0

Labour productivity

-2 -4 -6 96

sources: ECB, Eurostat Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 24

Euro zone: labour cost and productivity

(y/y % change)

4 3 2 1 0

Unit labour cost -1

Labour productivity Compensation/employee

-2 96

sources: ECB, Eurostat Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 25

Euro zone: OATei

5 4

Inflation rate, y/y %

3 2 1

OATei 10-year, breakeven inflation (long-term inflation expectation)

0 -1 01/02

01/03

01/04

01/05

01/06

01/07

01/08

01/09

sources: ECB, Reuters Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 26

Euro zone: inflation & consumer surveys

6 5

Inflation, y/y %

Prices: last 12 months*

3 30 2 15

Prices: next 12 months*

-1

-15 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

sources: Eurostat, * European Commission (Consumer surveys) Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 27

Euro zone: labour & equipment shortages 16 14 Equipment shortage, % 12 10 8 6 4 2 Labour shortage, %

0 85

June 2009

source: European Commission surveys Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

chart 28

Euro zone: monetary aggregates & real GDP growth, y/y %

12 9 M3

Real GDP

3 0 -3 -6 99

sources: Eurostat, ECB Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 29

HEADWINDS : CREDIT TO HOUSEHOLD SECTOR

Euro zone: MFI loans, annual growth rate (%) 16

to nonfinancial corporations

14 12

to households: housing loans

10 8 6 4

to households: consumer credit

2 0 -2 00

source: ECB Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 30

... DEMAND ON A DOWNWARD TREND

Euro zone: demand of bank loans from enterprises 40

(net balance of opinions, %)

expected

20 10 0 -10

recent

-20 -30 -40 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

source: ECB (Bank Lending Survey) Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 31

Euro zone: approval of bank loans to enterprises 70

(net balance of opinions, tightening - loosening %)

recent

50 40 30 20 10

expected

0 -10 -20 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

source: ECB (Bank Lending Survey) Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 32

Breakdown of ECB's total financial assets (level, billion EUR) 2100 Others

1800 1500

LT refinancing operations Main refinancing operations

1200 900 600 300 0 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

source: ECB Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 33

EUR/USD exchange rate and effective exchange rate index 20

USD effective exchange rate index, y/y %

1,6

EUR/USD exchange rate

1,5

1,4

1,3

1,2

1,1

-4

1,0

-8 EUR effective exchange rate index, y/y %

-12

0,9

-16

0,8 94

sources: Reuters, Réserve fédérale et BCE Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 34

US vs Germany: 10-year government bond rate, % 7 USA 6

5 Euro zone

2 99

source: Datastream

Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 35

FISCAL DEFICITS ... ON THE WAY UP

Eurozone: budget balance & public debt, % of GDP 0

-2

Budget balance

-4

Public debt -6

-8

65 95

08e 09f 10f

sources: Eurostat, European Commission Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 36

Fiscal balance as % of GDP

5 2008

2009

2010

Finland -5

Italy Germany

Netherlands

Portugal

France -10

Spain

source: European Commission Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 37

Gross debt as % of GDP

120

Italy 2008

100

2009

2010

France 80

Portugal

Germany

Spain

Netherlands Finland

40 20 0 source: European Commission Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

chart 38

Trade of goods & services: real annual growth, % 15 10 5 0 -5

World Germany

-10

France -15 -20 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09f 10f sources: IMF, Buba, Insee Philippe Dâ€™Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

Economic Research Department Philippe d'ARVISENET Chief Economist

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EURO ZONE, ITALY, EURO ZONE LABOUR MARKET Clemente De LUCIA

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OECD COUNTRIES Philippe d'ARVISENET

Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

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François FAURE Capital flows to emerging markets,Turkey

Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009

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Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist

June 2009