Age Structure & the Democratic Future
Richard Cincotta (rcincotta@stimson.org) The Stimson Center
Drexell U. Philadelphia, PA 24 APRIL, 2012
The Demographic Transition
Cincotta & Hummel, 2009
The world’s country-level age structures 2010
Richard Cincotta rcincotta@stimson.org
Cincotta & Hummel, 2009
Four categories: four individual countries, 2010
DATA SOURCE: UN Population Division, 2011
Age structural Classes: Japan 1935 to 2025.
Class Median age range (Population)
Youthful
Intermediate
15 – 25 yrs
25 – 35 yrs
(69.2 million)
(104.4 million)
Mature
Post-mature
35 – 45 yrs
45 – 55 yrs
(123.2 million)
(120.8 million)
Cincotta, in press
Age Structure and Trends in State Behavior
High incidence of intrastate conflict
Rise of stable liberal democracy
Rapid econ. growth
15
25
35 Median Age
Debt challenges
45
55
Trends in age-structural phases
Gains & Losses to Liberal Democracy
Youthful states
Youthful Youthful 5 yrs ago Data: UN 2010 Rev. Data, GCC states: USCB, IDB, 2009
Youthful states
Youthful Youthful 5 yrs ago Data: UN 2010 Rev. Data, GCC states: USCB, IDB, 2009
from Barnett, 2004
Youthful states
Youthful Youthful 5 yrs ago Data: UN 2010 Rev. Data, GCC states: USCB, IDB, 2009
Youthful states
Youthful Youthful 5 yrs ago Data: UN 2010 Rev. Data, GCC states: USCB, IDB, 2009
Youthful states
Youthful Youthful 5 yrs ago Data: UN 2010 Rev. Data, GCC states: USCB, IDB, 2009
Age structures: 2010
Age structures: 2030