Age Structure & the Democratic Future

Age Structure & the Democratic Future

Richard Cincotta (rcincotta@stimson.org) The Stimson Center

Drexell U. Philadelphia, PA 24 APRIL, 2012

The Demographic Transition

Cincotta & Hummel, 2009

The world’s country-level age structures 2010

Richard Cincotta rcincotta@stimson.org

Cincotta & Hummel, 2009

Four categories: four individual countries, 2010

DATA SOURCE: UN Population Division, 2011

Age structural Classes: Japan 1935 to 2025.

Class Median age range (Population)

Youthful

Intermediate

15 – 25 yrs

25 – 35 yrs

(69.2 million)

(104.4 million)

Mature

Post-mature

35 – 45 yrs

45 – 55 yrs

(123.2 million)

(120.8 million)

Cincotta, in press

Age Structure and Trends in State Behavior

High incidence of intrastate conflict

Rise of stable liberal democracy

Rapid econ. growth

15

25

35 Median Age

Debt challenges

45

55

Trends in age-structural phases

Gains & Losses to Liberal Democracy

Youthful states

Youthful Youthful 5 yrs ago Data: UN 2010 Rev. Data, GCC states: USCB, IDB, 2009

Youthful states

Youthful Youthful 5 yrs ago Data: UN 2010 Rev. Data, GCC states: USCB, IDB, 2009

from Barnett, 2004

Youthful states

Youthful Youthful 5 yrs ago Data: UN 2010 Rev. Data, GCC states: USCB, IDB, 2009

Youthful states

Youthful Youthful 5 yrs ago Data: UN 2010 Rev. Data, GCC states: USCB, IDB, 2009

Youthful states

Youthful Youthful 5 yrs ago Data: UN 2010 Rev. Data, GCC states: USCB, IDB, 2009

Age structures: 2010

Age structures: 2030