THE FUTURE OF GLOBALIZATION Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times, London Global Interdependence Centre University of Pennsylvania 6th April 2005
Will globalization survive? • Three Themes – What drives globalisation – Record of globalisation – Threats to globalisation
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Will globalization survive? TABLE 1 GROWTH IN GDP PER HEAD 1820-2001 (annual average compound grow th rates, per cent) Region 182018701913-50 1950-73 19731870 1913 2001 Wes tern 0.95 1.32 0.76 4.05 1.88 Europe Wes tern 1.42 1.81 1.55 2.45 1.84 Offs hoots Japan 0.19 1.48 0.89 8.06 2.14 Eas tern 0.63 1.39 0.6 3.81 0.68 Europe Fomer 0.63 1.06 1.76 3.35 -0.96 USSR Latin 0.1 1.81 1.42 2.52 0.91 America As ia -0.11 0.38 -0.02 2.92 3.55 (excluding Japan) Africa 0.12 0.64 1.02 2.07 0.19 World 0.53 1.3 0.91 2.92 1.41 Source: Angus Maddis on, The World Economy: Historical Statistics (Paris , Development Centre of the Organis ation for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2003), Table 8b.
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Will globalization survive?
RATIO OF TRADE IN GOODS TO GOODS GDP (per cent) 250.0%
200.0%
150.0%
100.0%
50.0%
0.0% Thailand
Germany
Mexico
UK
Turkey 1990
4
2002
China
US
Japan
Will globalization survive?
RISE OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION IN THE 1980s and 1990s (per cent of global GDP) 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% FDI inward stock
Gross product of foreign affiliates
Export of foreign affiliates 1982
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1990
2003
Export of goods and non-factor services
Sales of foreign affiliates