Center for Global Interdependence April 0605

THE FUTURE OF GLOBALIZATION Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times, London Global Interdependence Centre University of Pennsylvania 6th April 2005

Will globalization survive?

• Three Themes – What drives globalisation – Record of globalisation – Threats to globalisation

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Will globalization survive?

TABLE 1 GROWTH IN GDP PER HEAD 1820-2001 (annual average compound grow th rates, per cent) Region 182018701913-50 1950-73 19731870 1913 2001 Wes tern 0.95 1.32 0.76 4.05 1.88 Europe Wes tern 1.42 1.81 1.55 2.45 1.84 Offs hoots Japan 0.19 1.48 0.89 8.06 2.14 Eas tern 0.63 1.39 0.6 3.81 0.68 Europe Fomer 0.63 1.06 1.76 3.35 -0.96 USSR Latin 0.1 1.81 1.42 2.52 0.91 America As ia -0.11 0.38 -0.02 2.92 3.55 (excluding Japan) Africa 0.12 0.64 1.02 2.07 0.19 World 0.53 1.3 0.91 2.92 1.41 Source: Angus Maddis on, The World Economy: Historical Statistics (Paris , Development Centre of the Organis ation for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2003), Table 8b.

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Will globalization survive?

RATIO OF TRADE IN GOODS TO GOODS GDP (per cent) 250.0%

200.0%

150.0%

100.0%

50.0%

0.0% Thailand

Germany

Mexico

UK

Turkey 1990

4

2002

China

US

Japan

Will globalization survive?

RISE OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION IN THE 1980s and 1990s (per cent of global GDP) 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% FDI inward stock

Gross product of foreign affiliates

Export of foreign affiliates 1982

5

1990

2003

Export of goods and non-factor services

Sales of foreign affiliates