ANDREW HODGE June 1310

US Multinationals Focus Europe

Where I am going with this 

  

US investments in Europe huge, $9TR OF ASSETS and rapidly growing, esp E. Europe They are part of a huge asset side of the US international balance sheet.

Our investments esp. in old Europe are hugely profitable Partly explaining how US thrives this far in spite of big and growing debt

US assets in Europe $ trillions 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2007% 2000

Europe

3.11

3.40

4.07

4.84

5.86

6.36

7.56

8.97

288%

UK Neth

1.34 0.38

1.42 0.42

1.56 0.54

1.77 0.66

2.15 0.85

2.36 0.91

2.96 1.04

3.50 1.25

261% 331%

Luxem Germany

0.15 0.30

0.15 0.32

0.29 0.35

0.41 0.39

0.54 0.44

0.60 0.45

0.76 0.52

0.87 0.61

578% 202%

Ireland Switz France Belgium Italy Spain Sweden Norway

0.11 0.15 0.19 0.12 0.09 0.07 0.05 0.02

0.19 0.17 0.19 0.15 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.02

0.24 0.20 0.21 0.17 0.11 0.09 0.08 0.03

0.31 0.24 0.22 0.23 0.13 0.12 0.10 0.03

0.35 0.32 0.26 0.25 0.14 0.13 D 0.04

0.40 0.34 0.27 0.24 0.15 0.15 0.10 0.06

0.43 0.40 0.29 0.27 0.17 0.17 D 0.06

0.56 0.44 0.35 0.30 0.21 0.20 D 0.07

525% 287% 185% 253% 241% 310% 199% 333%

Denmark Russia Portugal Hungary Poland Kazakh

D 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

D 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

D 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 D

D 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.01 D

D D D 0.02 0.02 D

0.04 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.03

0.05 D D 0.03 0.02 D

D D 0.04 0.04 0.03 D

D 822% 420% 714% 243% 247%

US gross assets and debt $$ TRILLIONS $20 $18 $16

FOREIGN DEBT US NET FOREIGN DEBT OTHER US ASSETS

$14

OTHER US DIRECT INVESTMENT

$12

USDI IN EUROPE

$17.6 Gross $3.4 Net

$10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0

USFDI $3.4 Total $1.8 Europe

US investments in Europe

Biggest countries direct Investment (equity)

Earnings on European investment

How the hell did we last this long?



Good investments—also get forex gain Low liability costs—in $ “disappearing” our liabilities, Rockefeller center. Dotcoms, Mortgage Backed—soft default



Hodge’s Iron Law of Intl finance

 

So net debt =/= cumulated deficits

And net foreign earnings stay + 900,000 800,000

Intl income receipts

700,000

USFDI receipts

600,000

USFDI receipts from Europe

500,000

Intl income payments +

400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Bottom line: USFDI earnings about 1/2 US asset earnings Europe earnings-- $146 bio, 8% return, about twice small intl earnings surplus