Trade in the Americas Eugenio J. Aleman, Ph.D. Director and Senior Economist
U.S. & Canada-Real Exports Contribution to Growth
Export contribution to growth has been relatively strong in the U.S. but stronger in Canada
United States
Canada
U.S. Real Export v. Net Export Contribution to GDP
Real Export % Contribution to GDP
Percentage Points
1
In Canada
1
0.5
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
0.5
0
0
-0.5
-0.5
Real Export % Contibution: 2013 Q4 @ 0.7 Real Net Export % Contibution: 2013 Q4 @ -0.2
-1 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
-3 -1
Real Net Export % Contibution: 2013 Q3 @ -0.03 -4 1990 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Source: IHS & Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
Real Export % Contibution: 2013 Q3 @ -0.2
2
-3
-4
U.S.A. & Western Hemisphere Nominal Export Growth
U.S. Nominal Exports have been very strong during the last two decades
U.S. Exports to Other Countries
Western Hemisphere Exports to Selected Countries
US Exports to Other Countries
Western Hemisphere Exports to Other Countries Index, Percent Change
Index, Percent Change
80%
80%
40%
40%
0%
100%
0%
100%
75%
75%
50%
50%
25%
25%
0%
-40%
-80%
-120% 1990
-40%
Exports Exports Exports Exports Exports
to to to to to
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
-25% -50%
Western Hemisphere: 2012 @ 2.1% Brazil: 2012 @ 2.7% Mexico: 2012 @ -2.74% Chile: 2012 @ 6.12% Argentina: 2012 @ -11.36%
-80% -75%
2008
2011
-25%
Exports Exports Exports Exports Exports
to to to to to
the United States: 2012 @ 2.1% Brazil: 2012 @ 2.7% Mexico: 2012 @ -2.7% Chile: 2012 @ 6.1% Argentina: 2012 @ -11.4%
-100% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
-120%
Source: IHS & Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
0%
3
-50% -75% -100%
U.S. & Canada-Real Exports
While U.S. real exports have continued to improve, Canadian real exports have remained flat since the beginning of this century
U.S.
Canada
U.S. Real Exports
Canadian Real Exports
Trillions of USD
Billions of USD
$2.5
$2.5
$400.0
$400.0
Exports: Q4 @ $2.1T
Exports: Q3 @ $332.2B
$2.0
$2.0
$1.5
$300.0
$200.0
$200.0
$100.0
$100.0
$1.5
$1.0
$1.0
$0.5
$0.5
$0.0
$300.0
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
$0.0
$0.0
Source: IHS & Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
4
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
$0.0
Mexico-Real Exports & Contribution to Growth
Mexico has been one of the most successful exporters during the last two decades
Contribution to GDP Growth
Real Export Growth
Real Export % Contribution to GDP
Mexico Real Export Growth
In Mexico
4
Seasonally Adjusted
4
2
2
0
0
40%
40%
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
0%
0% -10%
-10% -2
-2
-20% Real Export % Contibution: 2013 Q3 @ -0.6 Real Net Export % Contibution: 2013 Q3 @ -0.3 -4 1994 1995 1997 1999 2000 2002 2003 2005 2006 2008 2010 2011 2013
-30% -4
Source: IHS & Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
-20% Exports: Q3 @ 5.7%
5
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
-30%
Mexican Nominal Export Growth
Mexican nominal exports have continued to surge
Export Growth to Selected Countries
Nominal Exports
Mexican Exports to Other Countries
Mexican Exports
Index, Percent Change
Billions of USD, Not Seasonally Adjusted
150%
150%
125%
125%
100%
100%
75%
75%
50%
50%
25%
25%
0%
-75% -100%
$35
Exports: Dec @ $32.1B 6-M Moving Average: Dec @ $32.5B
$40 $35
$30
$30
$25
$25
$20
$20
$15
$15
$10
$10
0%
-25% -50%
$40
-25% Exports Exports Exports Exports Exports
to to to to to
the United States: 2012 @ 4.89% Western Hemisphere: 2012 @ 7.56% Brazil: 2012 @ 15.7% Chile: 2012 @ 8.7% Argentina: 2012 @ -1.3%
-125% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
-50% -75% -100% -125%
Source: IHS & Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
6
$5
$5
$0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
$0
Mexico-Real Exports
Mexico Real Exports Trillions of Pesos
$5.0
$5.0 Exports: Q3 @ $4.3T
$4.5
Mexican real exports have more than quadruple since the early 1990s
$4.0
$4.0
$3.5
$3.5
$3.0
$3.0
$2.5
$2.5
$2.0
$2.0
$1.5
$1.5
$1.0
$1.0
$0.5
$0.5
$0.0
93
95
97
99
Source: IHS & Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
$4.5
7
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
$0.0
Brazil-Real Exports & Contribution to Growth
Real export growth has weakened lately but was growing strongly during the last two decades
Contribution to GDP Growth
Real Export Growth
Real Export % Contribution to GDP
Brazil Real Export Growth
In Brazil
3
3
2
2
1
1
Seasonally Adjusted
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
0% 0
0
-1
-1 Real Export % Contibution: 2013 Q3 @ 0.4 Real Net Export % Contibution: 2013 Q3 @ -0.1
-2 1996 1997 1998 2000 2001 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008 2010 2011 2013
-10%
-10%
-20%
-20% Exports: Q3 @ 3.3%
-30%
-2
Source: IHS & Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
0%
8
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
-30%
Brazilian Nominal Export Growth
Brazilian nominal exports also skyrocketed during the period
Nominal Export To Selected Countries
Nominal Exports
Brazilian Exports to Other Countries
Brazilian Exports of Goods and Services
Index, Percent Change
150%
120%
Exports Exports Exports Exports Exports
to to to to to
the United States: 2012 @ 3.5% Western Hemisphere: 2012 @ -12.6% Mexico: 2012 @ 1.1% Argentina: 2012 @ -20.8% Chile: 2012 @ -15.1%
150%
Billions of U.S. Dollars
$28
$28
Exports: Jan @ $16.0 B 6-Month Moving Avg.: Jan @ $20.5 B
120%
$24
90%
90%
$20
$20
60%
60%
$16
$16
30%
30%
$12
$12
0%
$24
0%
$8
$8
-30%
-30%
$4
$4
-60% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
-60%
$0
Source: IHS & Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
9
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
$0
Brazil-Real Exports
Brazil Real Exports Billions of Real
R$40
R$40 Exports: Q3 @ R$35.1
Brazilian real exports have followed a very similar pattern than Mexico’s real exports
R$30
R$30
R$20
R$20
R$10
R$10
R$0
95
97
99
01
Source: IHS & Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
10
03
05
07
09
11
13
R$0
Argentina-Real Exports & Contribution to Growth
Argentina’s real exports have also boomed during the last two decades
Contribution to GDP growth
Real Export growth
Real Export % Contribution to GDP
Argentina Real Export Growth
In Argentina
Seasonally Adjusted
4
4
40%
40%
3
3
30%
30%
2
2
20%
20%
1
1
10%
10%
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
0%
0% -10%
-10% -20% Real Export % Contibution: 2013 Q3 @ -0.04
-30%
Real Net Export % Contibution: 2013 Q3 @ 0.3 -3 1994 1995 1997 1998 2000 2001 2003 2005 2006 2008 2009 2011 2013
-3
Source: IHS & Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
-20% Exports: Q3 @ 2.2%
11
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
-30%
Argentina-Nominal Exports
Argentina’s nominal export have recorded a similar pattern than in other Latin American countries
Exports to Selected Countries
Nominal Exports
Argentine Exports to Other Countries
Argentine Merchandise Trade Balance
Index, Percent Change
120%
Exports Exports Exports Exports Exports
100% 80%
to to to to to
the United States: 2012 @ -6.7% Western Hemisphere: 2012 @ 0.2% Brazil: 2012 @ -5.3% Chile: 2012 @ 7.8% Mexico: 2012 @ -5.1%
60%
120%
Billions of USD
$9 $8
100%
Exports: Dec @ $5.4
$7
80%
$6
60%
$5 40%
40% 20%
0%
-40% 1990
$3
0%
-20%
$2
-20%
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
-40%
Source: IHS & Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
$9 $8 $7 $6 $5
$4 20%
$10
12
$4 $3 $2
$1
$1
$0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
$0
Argentina-Real Exports
Argentine Real Exports Billions of Pesos
$60
$60 Exports: Q3 @ $54.3B
Real exports have surged since the early part of the 1990s
$50
$50
$40
$40
$30
$30
$20
$20
$10
$10
$0
93
95
97
99
Source: IHS & Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
13
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
$0
Chile-Real Exports & Contribution to Growth
Chile has seen its trade sector explode with one of the strongest contribution to GDP growth in the region
Contribution to GDP Growth
Real Export Growth
Real Export % Contribution to GDP
Chile Export Growth
In Chile
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
Seasonally Adjusted
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
0%
0%
Real Export % Contibution: 2013 Q3 @ 0.3 Real Net Export % Contibution: 2013 Q3 @ 1.2 -6 1990 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Exports: Q3 @ 13.4% -10%
-6
Source: IHS & Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
14
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
-10%
Chile-Nominal Exports
Very strong nominal export growth for Chile
Exports to Selected Countries
Nominal Exports
Chilean Exports to Other Countries
Chile Nominal Exports
Index, Percent Change
160%
160%
Billions of USD
$8
$8
Exports: Dec @ $6.4
120%
120%
80%
80%
40%
40%
0%
$7
$6
$6
$5
$5
$4
$4
$3
$3
$2
$2
$1
$1
0%
-40%
-80%
$7
-40% Exports Exports Exports Exports Exports
to to to to to
the United States: 2012 @ 6.5% Western Hemisphere: 2012 @ -6.7% Brazil: 2012 @ -4.5% Mexico: 2012 @ -26.0% Argentina: 2012 @ -10.0%
-120% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
-80%
-120%
$0 1996
Source: IHS & Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
15
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
$0
Chile-Real Exports
Chile Real Exports Billions of Pesos
$12
$12 Exports: Q3 @ $10.8B
$10
Chilean exports have also surged during the last two decades
$10
$8
$8
$6
$6
$4
$4
$2
$2
$0
$0
90
92
94
96
98
Source: IHS & Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
16
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Peru-Real Exports & Contribution to Growth
Peru’s real exports and export growth contribution have also been stelar
Contribution to GDP Growth
Real Export Growth
Real Export % Contribution to GDP
Peru Export Growth
In Peru
4
Seasonally Adjusted
4
2
40%
40%
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
2
0
0
0% -2
-2
-10%
-20% -4
Source: IHS & Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
-10% Exports: Q3 @ 3.6%
Real Export % Contibution: 2013 Q3 @ 0.4 Real Net Export % Contibution: 2013 Q3 @ 0.5 -4 1990 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
0%
17
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
-20%
Peru-Real Exports
Peru Real Exports Billions of Pesos
$12
$12 Exports: Q3 @ $11.0B
$10
Real exports in Peru followed a similar pattern than in Chile
$10
$8
$8
$6
$6
$4
$4
$2
$2
$0
$0
90
92
94
96
98
Source: IHS & Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
18
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
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Economic Outlook
19