Welcome to our Conversations about Adapting to a Changing Climate: A Florida Reality

Welcome to our Conversations about Adapting to a Changing Climate: A Florida Reality

Climate Change & Sea Level Rise: Implications for Florida & the Region

Why are changes in the Earth’s Global Climate System important to Florida?

Global Scales

Florida

Challenges & Opportunities For Florida A Conversation with Robert (Bob) Corell, Principal at the Global Environment and Technology Foundation (US); Adjunct Professor, University of Miami and Professor at the University of the Arctic (Norway)

Our Changing Climate: Challenges and Realities Let’s explore how we got here and examine the patterns of historic changes in the Earth’s climate?

The “Language” of climate change is to measure the effects of global changes byYears the concentrations carbon dioxide in the 800,000 of CarbonofDioxide Levels Atmosphere in parts per million or simply ppm.

Now: ~414 ppm Max 300 ppm with Mean Value of about 270 ppm

2018 2014

The Eemian, the previous interglacial period, occurred 130 to 115 Kyr ago.

The global average surface temperature to 2 °C higher than pre-industrial conditions.

800,000 Years was of up Carbon Dioxide Levels

2018 ~414 ppm

~ 280

ppm

450,000 Year Record from Ice Cores Records January 20, 2019: 413.21ppm (Currently increasing over 5 ppm/yr.

Anthropocene

The changes in CO2 levels (Green) appear to lag behind the changes in temperatures (Red). These changes, until recently, have been primarily caused changes in the Earth’s orbit on long-time scales around the sun and from internal feedback natural processes. Taken together, these processes affects the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth’s surface, the essence of which was described by the Serbian geophysicist and astronomer, Milutin Milanković in the 1920s. These geophysical processes control the Earth’s global surface temperature, which in turn, drives the levels of atmospheric CO2 consistent with that temperature.

How did we get here?

Now 414 ppm

This is now a one thousand-fold increase in the rate of global CO2 Emissions The Average Slope of this rise in CO2 is now about now 2 to 3 ppm/year

The Average Slope of this rise in CO2 is about 0.002 ppm/year

Major Change 1750 to 2014

Concentrations of greenhouse gases in the past can be measured from the air of the past atmosphere trapped in the air bubbles in old ice.

Tiny Hollow Spheres with Captured Samples

Ice Core Provides the Facts The past is extensively documented in the ice cores

• • • Cross-Section of an Ice Core

• • • • •

The Ice: 18O , 17O , 16O, 1H og 2D Continental dust, volcanic ash, micro meteorites and biological material Ions: Cl-, NO3-, SO42-, F-, H+, Na+, K+, NH4+, Mg2+, Ca2+ Gas in air bubbles: CO2, CH4, O2, N2, SF6.

Radioactive isotopes: 10Be, 36Cl, 210Pb, 32Si, 14C, 137Cs, 90Sr. DNA (The biology of the past) Ice Physical Properties Bore hole logging: temperature, geometry Natural ice through polarized light (sample size : 4 x 10 cm)

Annual Global CO2 Emissions 1751 Onward Global Carbon Emissions 1750 - 2010

Global Populations Trends 1750 – 2019 and Beyond

790 Million in 1751

2019 7.7 Billion

Global Population: ~ 790 Million Source: CO2 Data is from the Global Carbon Project; population data is from United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division

A short movie starts in 1751, the beginning of the industrial revolution, to depict the annual global CO2 emissions to 2014 as the world adopted fossil fuels as it’s primary energy source, beginning with coal, then to oil, and ultimately natural gas.

Note the Year

Note the Emissions

VIDEO

Source: Global Carbon Project

Annual Global CO2 Emissions 1751 to 2010 Note beginning in England

Source: 2014 Global Carbon Project

Annual Global CO2 Emissions 2017

~10,000

2019

2019 Global Population: ~ 7.7 Billion

~10,000 By 2019, the 2018 emissions are globally mixed!

Source: CO2 Data is from the Global Carbon Project; population data is from United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division

The Sources the Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions where the CO2 is Absorbed

~88%

46%

CO2 is Stored

~12%

30%

In these 3 Places

24% Sources of CO2 Emissions The CO2 Emissions Stored Source: Global Carbon Project 2017

Global Carbon Cycle Altered by Human Activities Averaged globally for the decade 2007–2016 in GtCO2/yr

Source: Global Carbon Project and from CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Le Quéré et al 2017; Global Carbon Budget 2017

The sun emits short, high-energy wavelengths: visible light and ultraviolet radiation.

About 70 to 75% of the solar radiation passes through the atmosphere and reaches the Earth.

Earth absorbs this energy and re-emits it back into the atmosphere as long-wave, or infrared radiation .

The greenhouse gases reflect the long-wave infrared radiation energy back into the upper troposphere where it warms the atmosphere and the planet’s surfaces.

In summary: As greenhouse gases increase, more energy is reflected back from the greenhouse gas (GHG) region into the lower atmosphere and causes further heating the surfaces of the earth

Critical Fingerprint of the Consequences of Increases in Greenhouse Gases

Note: As the

Above this is the Stratosphere Below this is the Troposphere

Region for Greenhouse Gases to Reside

Mid-to-Upper Atmosphere warms the Lower stratosphere cools do to the blanketing effects of the region in with increases in GHG

Arctic Mean Surface Temperature Increase = more that 2 Degrees C

In summary, the Arctic warms 2 to 3 times the global mean!

Global Mean Surface Temperature Increase = 1+ Degrees C

BAU (13.2 oC)

BAU (9.5 oC)

BAU (4.2 oC)

~2050

~2100

5 to 8 OC

< 11 OC

Note 2090-2099

Note: The North American Region Projected Differences in Temperature Increases are in the Range of 7.5 0C in Eastern Canada and more like 4.5 0C in Central Alaska by the Late 21st Century

Note: The Yamal Region Projected Temperature Increases are in the Range of 6.5 to 7.5 0C by the Late 21st Century

What are the prospects for the future?

What does all this mean for the ways in which sea level changes occur globally and more importantly in Florida?

What is happening to Sea Level Rise?

The Third Pole

Sea Level Major Source Does Not Add to Sea Level

An Overview of the Last Ice Age 20,000 Years Ago

The Lowest Recent Global Sea Level Minimum Occurred about 20,000 Years Ago, about 390 ft below the Current Global Sea Level

Snapshots of the Last 120,000 Years Sea Level Changes in Florida

Difference is only 10â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Feet (a few meters)

Difference is about 400 Feet (120 meters)

Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay

Florida

Florida

Florida

Satellites provide the data that determines the net loss of ice mass for all of Greenlandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s ice sheet!

Historically, Greenland is adding 30% to 40% of global sea level rise!

The total net lost of land-based glacial ice Volume is the important data, as all of the melted glacial ice becomes sea level rise!

NOW

Sea level changes in the North Pacific trend to be lower by a factor of 1.5 or so below the global mean sea level.

Sea level changes in the Western Equatorial Pacific trend to be amplified by 3 -5 times the global mean sea level

Changes in sea level are a very local condition.

A Special Story: The Netherlands as Acted

Vietnam

Effects from 1 Meter and No Effects from Storm Surges: • 11% of Population at Risk • Estimate 10% Loss in GDP • 5% of Land Inundated

1 Meter of Sea Level Rise

Impact of Sea Level Rise on Sylt Island in Northern Germany

This is totally flooded

Current Level of the Sea

Sea Level Rise of only 1 Meter around Sylt Island has Profound Impact

136 Major Port/Coastal Cities have been Projected to be Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise in the Decades Ahead.

Overall cost of damage, these cities at the greatest risk are: 1. Guangzhou, China 2. Miami, U.S. 3. New York, U.S. 4. New Orleans, U.S. 5. Mumbai, India 6. Nagoya, Japan 7. Tampa, U.S. 8. Boston, U.S. 9. Shenzen, China 10.Osaka, Japan The top four cities of these 10 cities account for a projected 43% of the forecast total global losses.

The Changes in Local Sea Levels are Composed of Four Factors: 1. Thermal Expansion of Seawater: As the water gets warmer, the ocean surface moves upward.

2. The Melting of Land-Based Glaciers: As icebergs or glacial melt on land melt or form icebergs, the sea will rise accordingly.

3. Landmass Subsidence; The local upward or or downward movement of landmasses that are responding to release of the heavy weight from past ice age glaciers melting.

4. Changes in the Local Ocean Currents Impacts Local Sea Level: As the Gulf Stream or other local ocean currents past the coastline, they will change the local sea level, particularly to increase the local sea level as the off shore current slows.

5. Regional Differences across the Planet: Regional differences occur around the planet from a combination of several of these factors working together in a particular region.

1. Thermal Expansion of Seawater: As the water gets warmer, the ocean surface moves upward. Core Samples, Tide gauge readings, and, most recently, satellite measurements tell us that over the past century, the Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) has risen by 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters). However, this annual rate of rise over the past 20 years has doubled over the preceding 80 years. Currently about 35% of global sea level rise is from the thermal expansion of seawater.

The Changes in Local Sea Levels are Composed of Four Factors: 1. Thermal Expansion of Seawater: As the water gets warmer, the ocean surface moves upward.

2. The Melting of Land-Based Glaciers: As icebergs or glacial melt on land melt or form icebergs, the sea will rise accordingly. Currently about 35% of global sea level rise is from the melting of land-based glaciers.

3. Landmass Subsidence; The local upward or or downward movement of landmasses that are responding to release of the heavy weight from past ice age glaciers melting.

4. Changes in the Local Ocean Currents Impacts Local Sea Level: As the Gulf Stream or other local ocean currents past the coastline, they will change the local sea level, particularly to increase the local sea level as the off shore current slows.

5. Regional Differences across the Planet: Regional differences occur around the planet from a combination of several of these factors working together in a particular region.

Melt Water Channels on the Greenland Glacier

Melt Water Moulin within the Greenland Glacier August 2016

Moulins Channel Surface Melt Water to the Sea

Dynamics of a Flowing Glacier Front 1942 to 2004

ď&#x192;&#x2DC; New Research: Recent studies show that large and potentially unstable Antarctic glaciers may be melting from below and hence moving farther inland than previously thought.

ď&#x192;&#x2DC; An Abrupt Source of SLR: This expanded understanding of the melting is very likely affect the stability of these kinds of glaciers and has the likelihood of increasing ice sheet contributions to sealevel rise.

1929

1851

The glacier calves large icebergs, which immediately raises global sea level. The face of the glacier moves in response to temperature changes !

2014

1929 1851

The glacier calves large icebergs, which immediately raises global sea level. The face of the glacier moves in response to temperature changes !

2014

The Face of the Ilulissat Glacier in Greenland

Helicopter

The Main Ilulissat Glacier: About One Kilometer Across the Face and About 800 meters High

Credit: Jason_5june_coregv1.mov

One of the Largest Calving Events ever Recorded was in 2015

Calving of the Face of an Active Glacier in Greenland

This is the Helheim Glacier It is in southeastern Greenland and is one of Greenland's largest outlet glaciers

The Changes in Local Sea Levels are Composed of Four Factors: 1. Thermal Expansion of Seawater: As the water gets warmer, the ocean surface moves upward.

2. The Melting of Land-Based Glaciers: As icebergs or glacial melt on land melt or form icebergs, the sea will rise accordingly.

3. Landmass Subsidence: The local upward or or downward movement of landmasses that are responding to release of the heavy weight from past ice age glaciers melting.

4. Changes in the Local Ocean Currents Impacts Local Sea Level: As the Gulf Stream or other local ocean currents past the coastline, they will change the local sea level, particularly to increase the local sea level as the off shore current slows.

5. Regional Differences across the Planet: Regional differences occur around the planet from a combination of several of these factors working together in a particular region.

As the Ice sheet forms, the land depresses and a bulge forms at the edge.

As it melts, the inverse occurs, the uplift reduces local sea level rise and the bulge raises sea level. rise

The Changes in Local Sea Levels are Composed of Four Factors: 1. Thermal Expansion of Seawater: As the water gets warmer, the ocean surface moves upward.

2. The Melting of Land-Based Glaciers: As icebergs or glacial melt on land melt or form icebergs, the sea will rise accordingly.

3. Landmass Subsidence; The local upward or or downward movement of landmasses that are responding to release of the heavy weight from past ice age glaciers melting.

4. Changes in the Local Ocean Currents Impacts Local Sea Level: As the Gulf Stream or other local ocean currents past the coastline, they will change the local sea level, particularly to increase the local sea level as the off shore current slows.

5. Regional Differences across the Planet: Regional differences occur around the planet from a combination of several of these factors working together in a particular region.

Changes in the Local Ocean Currents Impacts Local Sea Level

As the Gulf Stream or other local ocean currents past the coastline, they will change the local sea level, particularly to increase the local sea level as the off shore current slows.

IPCC Projected Changes in Next 90 years.

15% 30%

10%

The current of about 3 mm/yr. of global sea level rise could locally be increased by a local change in sea level of up to 25 mm/yr. in some regions by this mechanism.

The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany

The Changes in Local Sea Levels are Composed of Four Factors: 1. Thermal Expansion of Seawater: As the water gets warmer, the ocean surface moves upward.

2. The Melting of Land-Based Glaciers: As icebergs or glacial melt on land melt or form icebergs, the sea will rise accordingly.

3. Landmass Subsidence; The local upward or or downward movement of landmasses that are responding to release of the heavy weight from past ice age glaciers melting.

4. Changes in the Local Ocean Currents Impacts Local Sea Level: As the Gulf Stream or other local ocean currents past the coastline, they will change the local sea level, particularly to increase the local sea level as the off shore current slows.

Regional Differences across the Planet: Regional differences occur across the planet that range from a combination of these four factors working together in a particular region. Further, it can include reductions or increases in water stored in aquifers near the coastal areas.

Arctic Land Ice 35%

NASA reported that in 2018 that global SLR is accelerating, mainly by increased melting in Greenland and Antarctica. Antarctica ice melt rate has accelerated by 280% in the last 4 decades 30% for Both

Thermal Expansion of the Ocean (35%)

What effect does sea level rise when combined with the changes in extreme weather have on local coastal areas?

Why Weather Extremes

Weather Trends with Local Implications

• More Frequent Extremes: Recent observations show more frequent extremes across the globe, what were previously observed as 1 in 100 year events, now appear to be 1 in 20 year events or even more frequent.

• Heat Extremes: Heat extremes will have a significant effect on

agricultural regions. The impact of temperature extremes on crop production has been well documented with the likelihood of more hot days with record heat and precipitation changes, crop yields are more vulnerable.

• Stronger Hydrological Cycle: A stronger hydrological

cycle will lead to more water per storm across the globe. A warmer atmosphere means more water vapor in the atmosphere, which means individual storms will release more water/storm. US has seen a 30% increase in such intense rain storms.

• Simultaneous Extreme Events: Simultaneous extreme events are likely to increase, where several extreme events such as Sandy will cause unprecedented impacts.

Climate Changes Appears to Increase the North-South Range of the Jet Stream

Climate Changes Appears to Increase the North-south Range of the Jet Stream Very cold Arctic air is drawn southwards

Warmer air from the south is drawn northward, often further northwards

Moving further southward more often and slowing, even sometimes locking into a fixed position

Arctic Vortices Breakup Sea Ice and Change the Weather in Southern Latitudes

Consequences of these Changes in the Polar Vortex Russia

• MUCH COLDER

Russia

MUCH WARMER Norway

MUCH WARMER Canada MUCH COLDER US

•

There are intraregional temperature differences, by as much as +/- 15 oC. The changes polar vortices tend to be driven by the temperature differences over open water which influences weather systems south of the Arctic

Climate changes appears to increase the north-south range Theofcombination these concurrent storms the Jet Streamof and oftenthree slowing it, even locking sometimes, it position over some the northern â&#x20AC;&#x153;pinnedâ&#x20AC;? them right overplaces New in York City hemisphere.

Atlantic Hurricanes are Growing Stronger in the 40 Years

• Global sea level has been stable: It has basically been unchanged for Bottom Line • •

• • •

•

6,000 years; Sea Level Rise Planet Earth has enter a new sea level era: Since the Mid-20th Century; Sea level is projected to rise a global average of 1-2 meters or more by the end of this century: Some regional levels are projected to rise 3-5 times the global average, while in the high northern regions sea levels will continue fall by 0.5-1.0 meters due to subsidence; Storm surges ride on top of any sea level rise: These surges, from “King Tides”, severe storms and hurricanes, will rise on top of any sea level rise; Sea level will move the shoreline inland: This averages is about 300 feet for every foot of sea level rise, changing the shapes of continents; Most importantly; sea level will continuously rise for centuries: Even if the Paris Agreement leads to 2 Co by 2100, sea level will still continue to rise for 400-600 years, and projections suggest in 3 to 5 meter range.

One Important Caveat: Many projections DO NOT include the distinct possibility of a glacier (e.g., The Pine Island Glacier in Antarctica) abruptly calving and over time raising sea levels another 2-5 meters.

Floridaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Unique Geological History

Floridaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s, bedrock beneath the state is porous limestone, it acts like a hard sponge full of holes and allows groundwater to rise at the same rate as the ocean. Water flows through the porous ground, up from below, and under sea walls.

County maps show saltwater has intruded underground past the Fort Lauderdale airport, threatening wells for several cities, including Hallandale Beach, Fort Lauderdale and several other municipalities.

Now

Here in Miami Beach, it looks like the sea water flows from the beach, when in fact, much of the water shown here is percolating from the porous limestone beneath the entire city!

The Fresh Water – Salt Water Tug-of-Wars This new reality is driven by the rising sea level Rain Water Recharge

Growing urban centers need access to freshwater, flat topography encourages ponds of water to linger, and porous limestone aquifers are particularly vulnerable to encroaching saltwater. Storm surges occasionally drive seawater far inland, compounding the problem.

Now, sea level rise is forcing people to think differently. “The ocean is no longer an external thing,” Everglades Manager says.

“It’s already in the house.”

â&#x20AC;˘

â&#x20AC;˘

Many small islands are only a few meters above the sea and have already experienced over 0.5 meters of sea level rise.

The Florida Keys are uniquely vulnerable to climate change because of their geography and socioeconomic characteristics.

In Summary: Scientific analyses, peer-reviewed articles and assessments of these five changes in the Arctic will have serious global consequences. ď&#x192;&#x2DC;The Unprecedented Consequences of Rising of the Global Seas: The melting and potential collapse of the major glaciers are harbingers of higher future sea level that poses significant threats to human lives and infrastructure, especially in vulnerable and densely populated coastal areas. During a similar warm period 120,000 years ago, which similar that which we are likely to experience this century, roughly half of the Greenland ice sheet melted, which is thought to have contributed to over 50% of the 4 to 6 meters of global sea level rise that was observed during that period. Without major reductions in global carbon emission, these are the current upper projected levels of sea level rise this century and beyond.

In Summary: Scientific analyses, peer-reviewed articles and assessments of these five changes in the Arctic will have serious global consequences. ď&#x192;&#x2DC; New Weather Patterns are Emerging: Weather in the Northern Hemisphere is strongly influenced by the jet stream, including shifts in cold air masses from the Arctic moving further southward and warmer air masses moving further northward from the tropics . The jet stream drives much of our weather patterns creating new weather patterns across the Northern Hemisphere and more specially, in Florida.

ď&#x192;&#x2DC; These two global-scale forces are very likely to have substantial consequences for Florida and its socio-economic well-being and the abilities of civil society, businesses/industries and state and local governments to adapt in timely ways to these rapidly

May I suggest a set of global-scale forces affecting Florida for our discussions today that are increasingly framing the 21st Century.

Here are arguably five forces of change that are increasingly reshaping the socio-economic foundations of societies and our geopolitical futures: 1) Economic and Social Disruption is Continuing to Accelerate: These forces are placing many organizations, institutions governing entities at risk on every scale.

2) Creating a Global Knowledge Economy: This emerging reality is intensifying competition as well as offering new models for international affairs.

3) New Business and Delivery Models are Gaining Traction: New institutional output/outcome models are increasingly embracing value-based models that prioritize measurable and may bewhere a backdrop our discussions meaningful results,These particularly ITC istocentral to implementations. today and for all of us, over the days ahead. as 4) Greater Transparency and Accountability is Expected: prepareand for operational our agenda practices on the lastare day!

These institutional we strategies becoming the norm.

5) Increased Expectation of Returns on Financial and Programmatic Investments: The expectations expecting and documentable greater return on investment, particularly as we reshape the global socio-economic foundations of societies and our geopolitical global futures .

The Scientific Realities: The rates of climate and global change are clearly unprecedented that undoubtedly will challenge our national and international governance strategies and our political capacities for years to come.

Floridaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Opportunity Space: These challenges provide innovative investment opportunities that are likely to be addressed through an integrated set of actions that interconnect energy sources and end-uses, environmental/natural resources, and national and global economics.

Watch the Dates, Beginning Christmas Eve 1968

Our Global Home!

â&#x20AC;&#x153;The stakes are high. Climate change has profound implications for virtually all aspects of human well being, from jobs and health to food security and peace within and among nations. Yet too often climate change is seen as an environmental problem when it should be part of the broader development and economic agenda. Until we acknowledge the allencompassing nature of the threat, our response will fall short.â&#x20AC;?

Quote: Kofi Annan. Former Secretary General of the United Nations

It is an honor and pleasure to be with you today and together explore our Our Common Future!

Thank You!