Defence Industry Reports – Next Generation Naval Vessel Technology

SPECIAL REPORT

Naval Vessel Technology LĂœRSSEN Offshore Patrol Vessels (OPV): One Platform, Many Roles

Naval Vessels in Action and How Requirements are Changing

21st Century Naval Developments

Looking Over the Horizon: Naval Forces for the Future

21st Century Threats and New Roles for Naval Vessels

Published by Global Business Media

NAVAL VESSEL TECHNOLOGY

SPECIAL REPORT

Naval Vessel Technology LÜRSSEN Offshore Patrol Vessels (OPV): One Platform, Many Roles

Naval Vessels in Action and How Requirements are Changing

21st Century Naval Developments

Looking Over the Horizon: Naval Forces for the Future

21st Century Threats and New Roles for Naval Vessels

Contents Foreword

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Mary Dub, Editor

LÜRSSEN Offshore Patrol Vessels (OPV): One Platform, Many Roles

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Fr. Lürssen Werft GmbH & Co KG

Published by Global Business Media

Published by Global Business Media Global Business Media Limited 62 The Street Ashtead Surrey KT21 1AT United Kingdom Switchboard: +44 (0)1737 850 939 Fax: +44 (0)1737 851 952 Email: info@globalbusinessmedia.org Website: www.globalbusinessmedia.org Publisher Kevin Bell Business Development Director Marie-Anne Brooks Editor Mary Dub Senior Project Manager Steve Banks Advertising Executives Michael McCarthy Abigail Coombes Production Manager Paul Davies For further information visit: www.globalbusinessmedia.org The opinions and views expressed in the editorial content in this publication are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily represent the views of any organisation with which they may be associated.

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Many Challenges Many Tasks One Platform The OPV 85 / OPV 90 – Stretched versions of OPV 80 – for Special Requirements Training and Through-Life Support

21st Century Naval Developments

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Mary Dub, Editor

The Political Context for Change: ‘What do we need a navy for anyway?’

What Does this Mean in Terms of Market Growth?

The Rise of China and its Maritime Interests The Link Between Economic Strength and Naval Capability

21st Century Threats and New Roles for Naval Vessels

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Don McBarnet, Staff Writer

What is the Cold War Situation?

The United States Interest in Regional Cooperation at Odds with Regional National Interests Changes to Market Demand Tension in Asia

Naval Vessels in Action and How Requirements are Changing

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Meredith Llewellyn, Lead Contributor

The Rules of Engagement Did Not Allow the Sailors to Shoot Unless Shot at First The INS Hanit Attack by Hezbollah Anti-Ship Missile The Sinking of the ROKS Cheonan Near the Border of North Korea The Significance of These Three Events

Looking Over the Horizon: Naval Forces for the Future

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Mary Dub, Editor

The Other Option to Rearming and Tension The Hazards to Shipping of African Littoral Area According to the National Defense University The Case for Upgrading and Retrofitting Legacy Fleets with the Latest Technologies

References 14 WWW.DEFENCEINDUSTRYREPORTS.COM | 1

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Foreword O

ff shore patrol vessels, frigates and corvettes

safeguard security and the countervailing need for

have for a long time been the backbone of

nations to build up security forces that protect their

many naval forces. Now in 2013 they are emerging

own national interest.

as the new driver of maritime security in an

The fourth item of the Report is perhaps the most

uncertain world that can no longer rely on Cold War

important. It looks at the way naval warfare is changing

or ‘uni-polar’ American dominated certainties. This

in the first 13 years of the new century and how this

Special Report takes a long hard look at what the

points to a powerful new trend for awareness of

recent changes in geo political trade and economic

the need to improve technology on current naval

strength mean for demand to refit, upgrade and

vessels and change rules of engagement and

renew naval forces in Europe, South America,

surveillance capabilities to the realities of what

Africa and Asia.

could be a new and growing danger.

The Report opens with an article that looks

The final article looks over the horizon and attempts

at alternatives to the use of vessels designed for

to foretell the short and medium term future. Its

high-intensity conflicts in dealing with situations

conclusion should be of value to shipbuilders,

such as combating pirates with hand-held

because America’s new sense of vulnerability in

firearms, securing coastal waters or responding to

the face of emerging Asian countries and China’s

international catastrophes such as tsunamis. It goes

new commitment to enhance its maritime strength

on to describe platforms which are highly versatile

all point in the same direction – a strong and certain

and cost-effective while allowing independent

demand for the latest technologies for navies even

operation over lengthy periods.

in times of austerity.

The second piece reassesses global market trends and tries to untangle some of the uncertainties in the emerging global market. The third piece looks at the value of cooperation between nations to

Mary Dub Editor

Mary Dub has covered the defence field in the United States and the UK as a television broadcaster, journalist and conference manager.

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NAVAL VESSEL TECHNOLOGY

LÜRSSEN Offshore Patrol Vessels (OPV): One Platform, Many Roles Fr. Lürssen Werft GmbH & Co KG

The OPV 85, a stretched version of the OPV 80, provides the necessary growth potential in terms of technology as well as crew capacity

THE OFFSHORE PATROL VESSEL PV 80 ON MISSION

Many Challenges Many nations have seen radically changing global and regional security challenges over the past years and decades. These developments will continue in the future: there will be regions in which armed conflict must be expected at any time, where naval defence forces play a decisive role in safeguarding the security interests of affected states. This calls for modern, well-armed units like corvettes, frigates, submarines and naval aircraft.

Yet this does not apply to all nations at all times: primarily, all navies and coast guards worldwide share the need to watch over their respective country’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and secure economic interests, for example, protection of oil, gas and mining resources, or fish stocks and other natural resources.

Secondly, the EEZ represents the outermost wall of defence in a nation’s maritime security. Gaps in EEZ surveillance can enable intruders to mount symmetrical or asymmetrical threats to coastal regions and ports. And thirdly, complete control of the EEZ is essential to the fulfilment of binding international responsibilities such as Search and Rescue (SAR) treaties, the duty to protect

shipping lines against piracy and terrorist attacks or cooperation in cases of natural catastrophe.

Many Tasks In short, the forces responsible for a country’s naval security must be equipped to: l Defend effectively against military threats and non-military threats like smuggling of drugs, weapons and people as well as terrorist activities within their territorial waters l Secure resources on or beneath the ocean floor as well as biological resources l Guarantee the security of international shipping within the EEZ l Help in the event of environmental catastrophes like tsunamis and oil spills Today, these tasks are still mainly met by vessels designed for high-intensity conflicts, equipped with high-tech sensors, weapons, communications and command centres.

However, these capabilities are not required – at least not to this extent – in meeting the challenges listed above. The procurement, operation and maintenance of such vessels generate costs that medium-sized and smaller navies, whose budgets are often shrinking, are unwilling WWW.DEFENCEINDUSTRYREPORTS.COM | 3

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or unable to carry. Deployment of high-tech frigates developed for naval warfare, against pirates with handheld firearms in small wooden boats off the coast of Africa is nothing less than extravagantly uneconomical. The same applies to securing coastal waters and the EEZ. These tasks call for vessels that can perform them at viable costs in terms of financial and human resources.

One Platform

The OPV 80 platform is so individual and versatile that it can be adapted and equipped to master any set of challenges

At Lürssen, we have listened attentively to the world’s navies and coast guards and developed a special platform called OPV 80, which may not fulfil all of the tasks in question simultaneously – that would indeed be promising too much – but the OPV 80 platform is so individual and versatile that it can be adapted and equipped to master any set of challenges. The concept and design of this platform draws on more than 135 years of experience that we have gathered in building Fast Patrol Boats, Minehunters, Corvettes, Frigates and Auxiliaries.

One version of the OPV 80, classified by Germanischer Lloyd and meeting the standards ISO 9001:2000 as well as IMO and SOLAS, is already deployed in some of the world’s most difficult to control waters: the islands of Southeast Asia.

Our OPV 80 is equipped with basic capabilities that allow cost-effective and independent operation over long periods.

Above all, these include: l Outstanding stability in heavy seas l Cost-efficient, environmentally compatible propulsion l Long endurance including the option of Replenishment at Sea (RAS) l Work and rest quarters designed to meet modern standards l Sensors required for sea surveillance l Communication equipment that allows communication with land, sea and airborne units l Weapons systems adapted to each mission to defend against surface and airborne targets l An operations centre adapted to relevant tasks l Space for containers dedicated to special tasks like mine hunting, submarine hunting, diving, environmental protection and hydrography l A spacious flight deck for deployment of UAS and/or helicopters weighing up to 11 tons, such as the BLACK HAWK l The option of deploying and retrieving up to four RHIBs, e.g. in response to asymmetrical threats or for boarding operations via a stern ramp, without stopping the mother ship

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STERN RAMP FOR NONSTOP BOARDING OPERATIONS

ccommodation and working quarters for A additional crew members depending on the situation.

We believe the OPV 80 is the ideal platform for navies of all sizes seeking reliable, robust ships that operate efficiently in terms of material and human resources and have the capabilities required to defend their territorial waters and economic zones.

Capabilities of decisive significance include: l Operation alone or as part of a task group, if required as lead ship in larger national and international operations l Medium-range reconnaissance and intervention with the help of helicopters or UAS, e.g. in boarding and anti-piracy operations l Immediate response to illegal activities like smuggling, human trafficking and piracy by means of RHIBs and RIBS l

The OPV 85 / OPV 90 – Stretched versions of OPV 80 for Special Requirements Of course, we know that the demands on an OPV can vary from region to region and country to country depending on the security situation. In some regions armed conflicts are possible at any time in addition to the threats listed above. In such cases as well, capabilities for decisive response must be guaranteed, and we have considered this in our OPV concept.

Crises are not always foreseeable and can often erupt within a very short time. That means navies operating in waters marked by such continuous threats place additional demands on OPVs. The OPV 85, and OPV 90 are stretched versions of the OPV 80, which provides the necessary

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Installation of mediumcalibre guns for deployment against seaborne and coastal targets is possible, as is growth potential in terms of technology as well as crew capacity.

Installation of medium-calibre guns for deployment against seaborne and coastal targets is possible, as is outfitting with short-range air defence systems with corresponding sensors, for self-defence against air threats. It is also possible to create space for a second helicopter, protected by a telescopic or fixed hangar.

Alternatively or additionally, the OPV 85 and OPV 90 can be equipped with UAS (Unmanned Aircraft Systems) when helicopter deployment would be inefficient or involve too much risk. There is ample space for operating, refuelling and maintaining manned or unmanned helicopters.

A crisis may also demand land-based operations in coastal regions. For such purposes, the OPV 85 can carry small to medium-sized land vehicles, which can be deployed and retrieved by means of a crane. This applies to transports for Special Forces as well.

In the OPV 80 / 85 / 90, we offer a missionproven platform of unbeatable versatility thanks to task-specific combinations of RHIBS/RIBS, airborne systems and onboard or containerbased capabilities. Here, the client has the choice between containers that work independently of or together with the ship’s operations centre.

outfitting with short-range

Training and Through-Life Support

air defence systems with

Of course we want to deliver more than a turnkey system with the OPV 80. We wish to ensure that the versatile capabilities of our ships are utilized professionally, effectively and efficiently. For this reason, we offer training of future crews at our training centre in Bremen, a facility of which many navies have already taken advantage.

Lürssen is known not only for delivering highly advanced vessels, but also for services like through-life support offered by the division Lürssen Logistics. Through-life support is as important to us as the quality of our ships and part of the LÜRSSEN trademark.

corresponding sensors, for self-defence against air threats

Contact Fr. Lürssen Werft GmbH & Co. KG Zum Alten Speicher 11 28759 Bremen Germany Tel: +49 (0)421 6604 334 Fax: +49 (0)421 6604 395 Email: defence@luerssen.de www.luerssen-defence.com WWW.DEFENCEINDUSTRYREPORTS.COM | 5

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21st Century Naval Developments “Whosoever commands the sea commands the trade; whosoever commands the trade of the world commands the riches of the world, and consequently the world itself.” Sir Walter Raleigh 1554 –1618 British naval explorer

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In an age of austerity, there is a strong case for doing more with less. Governments are demanding that many legacy and emerging navies must get more mission capability out of smaller hulls, smaller crews, and with lower total operating costs

IR WALTER Raleigh’s thought about the nature of naval warfare remains true today in the 21st century. Indeed, and perhaps equally importantly, Sir Julian Corbett, the British 19th century naval strategist asserted that the sea was “uncommanded” most of the time. Both these insights, Raleigh’s and Corbett’s, would be recognized by 21st century naval decision makers. Why? For Western and NATO countries, their navies are the product of thinking to meet Cold War requirements and strategy, but many of these requirements are fading1. Some argue that the redistribution of global economic growth is reshaping the global naval market fundamentally – what will be built and where is changing.

Bob Nugent of AMI International2 argues that in the past decade of new naval design, work has shifted away from larger specialized vessels back to generalized, flexible and in many cases smaller platforms. He makes the case that the 21st century is seeing the rise of the Offshore Patrol Vessel, and that Frigates and Corvettes are busier than ever. There is a case to be made that frigates, corvettes and offshore patrol vessels increasingly substitute for cold war designs across the capability spectrum. Frigates act as flagships with radar and command and a capability to carry guided missiles. Corvettes are carrying helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for mine countermeasures.

The Political Context for Change: ‘What do we need a navy for anyway?’

In the context of 21st century asymmetric counter insurgency warfare in Iraq, Afghanistan and counter terrorist campaigns in the Middle East, the Gulf States and Asian and Pacific countries, there has been a powerful challenge to the utility of seagoing vessels from the sophisticated high technology ground and air forces with all their concomitant logistic and maintenance demands.

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A general popular and political understanding of the role of navies is being lost in many Western countries and support for sea power is becoming increasingly problematic. What is more, in an age of austerity, there is a strong case for doing more with less. Governments are demanding that many legacy and emerging navies must get more mission capability out of smaller hulls, smaller crews, and with lower total operating costs. This is being done in a multitude of different ways. Governments are substituting down: high-end frigates become the new “battle ships”, corvettes become the new frigates, and manned and unmanned naval craft are used for sea surveillance.

What Does this Mean in Terms of Market Growth?

Visiongain, the independent business information provider, estimated that the global market in 2011 for warships and naval vessels would amount to $75.4bn3. They noted in particular the growth potential in both China and India, which are expanding their surface fleets. This has given impetus to naval developments in the region. They reported that both Japan and South Korea were planning to acquire improved naval capabilities. The report for 2013-2023 noted other features. Although the warships and naval vessels market is an established defense sector, it is one that offers considerable opportunities for exploitation. Despite the decrease in defense spending in the West, the market continues to be driven by other factors. The withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan shifts the focus to modernisation of neglected fleets. Also, they argue, the changing nature of warfare, the continued threat of piracy and terrorism, and the rapidly evolving profiles of emerging markets, offer opportunities. So, Visiongain estimates that the value of the global warships and naval vessels market in 2013 will reach $77.17bn4. In another report on the maritime security market, The Maritime Security Market

NAVAL VESSEL TECHNOLOGY

K130 CLASS CORVETTE, GERMAN NAVY

2010-2020: Piracy, Shipping & Seaports5, they argue that security of shipping and combatting maritime terrorism are increasingly salient priorities and market drivers to countries with long littoral borders. The increasingly regular occurrence of maritime piracy on larger high value assets such as cargo ships and oil and gas tankers has raised the awareness of maritime security. Not only are these incidents costly for the shipping and oil and gas sectors, they also raise profound questions about energy security in a globalised economy and this has concentrated minds to tackle the problem of maritime piracy. Furthermore, the threat of maritime terrorism remains a very real possibility as terrorist groups see the benefits in targeting such potentially explosive prizes. All of these factors and others are driving increased spending on maritime security.

The Rise of China and its Maritime Interests While these market drivers are important, there is also significant geopolitical shift. The United States with its still powerful navy is being forced to reassess its capabilities in the face of new developments in China. Professor Cole, at the National War College, Fort Lesley J. McNair Washington, D.C., presents Chinese Naval thinking and it’s a very different perspective. He quotes a People’s Liberation Army strategist

summarizing the Chinese worldview. “In the last 109 years, imperialists have repeatedly invaded China from the sea . . . 470 times, . . . 84 of these being serious invasions. The ocean has become an avenue for the aggressors to bring in their troops and haul away our wealth. . . . The ocean is not only the basic space for human survival, but also an important theater for international political struggle . . . The better people can control the sea, the greater they have the sea territorial rights [which have] become inseparable from a country’s sovereignty.”6

The Link Between Economic Strength and Naval Capability

The changing nature of warfare, the continued threat of piracy and terrorism, and the rapidly evolving profiles of emerging markets, offer opportunities

In Professor Cole’s view, economic strength is paramount. As he says historically, national naval power has been linked directly with national economic strength. China’s remarkable economic growth during the past three decades, with its concentration in coastal regions and reliance on seaborne trade, highlights the maritime arena as a national security interest of the highest priority for Beijing. The remarkable growth of China’s economy, the broadening of Beijing’s global political and economic interests, and the resolution of almost all border disputes with China’s many contiguous neighbors have contributed to a newly confident international outlook.

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21st Century Threats and New Roles for Naval Vessels Don McBarnet, Staff Writer “For in war . . . the common sense of some and the genius of others sees and properly applies means to ends; and naval strategy, like naval tactics, when boiled down, is simply the proper use of means to attain ends. But in peace, as in idleness, such matters drop out of mind, unless systematic provision is made for keeping them in view.” Alfred Thayer Mahan 1840 –1914 American naval geo-strategist

For some, the United States, Japan, and Australia have been described as the postCold War democratic neo-liberal anchors for Asia-Pacific security

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RESIDENT OBAMA’S much quoted ‘pivot to Asia’ is an important signal of a shift in American priorities, as eyes swivel from looking West to Europe to looking East to the Pacific and Asia. Some politicians are looking at the intended and unintended consequences of this reorientation, as Asia moves forward from the Cold War heritage.

What is the Cold War Situation?

What is the Cold War status quo?7 For some, the United States, Japan, and Australia have been described as the post-Cold War democratic neo-liberal anchors for Asia-Pacific security. Both Australia and Japan are island nations, dependent on long, vulnerable sea lines of communication (SLOCs). Australia’s primary sphere of strategic interest extends from the mid-Indian Ocean through the Straits of Malacca and South China Sea to the Southwest Pacific.

Japan’s SLOCs are encompassed by Australia’s.

Both the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) and Japan’s Maritime Self Defense Force (JMSDF) maintain P-3C Orion surveillance aircraft that cover these regions, in Japan’s case up to the northwest Pacific and the East China Sea. The two countries’ air patrol craft maintain electronic data links allowing them to share information on ship movements throughout the areas of combined operations. The U.S. Seventh Fleet also patrols these areas.

The United States Interest in Regional Cooperation at Odds with Regional National Interests Professor Simon of the American National Defense University argues that the United States has been particularly interested in promoting naval cooperation in Asia. Its 8 | WWW.DEFENCEINDUSTRYREPORTS.COM

FAST PATROL BOAT FPB 41, BRUNEI NAVY

annual CARAT (Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training) exercises with Southeast Asian navies have included surveillance, SLOC (Sea Lines of Communication) protection, and mine-countermeasures. Nevertheless, there exists a disjunction between the American navy’s focus on littoral operations and expeditionary forces versus regional navies that are interested in sea-denial capabilities to defend their littorals. Moreover, Southeast Asian states have a strong commitment to sovereignty in their territorial seas that even extends to their EEZs (exclusive economic zones). This jealous protection of sovereignty constitutes a significant obstacle to the cooperation needed for countering maritime piracy and terrorism. Moreover, piracy ranks relatively low among regional governments’ priorities. Illegal fishing and smuggling rank higher because their financial and human costs are greater. The new American strategy has been summarised by Pacific Commander Admiral Timothy Keating, it is “based on partnership, presence, and military readiness.”

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OFFSHORE PATROL VESSEL PV 80, BRUNEI NAVY

Previous statements were more assertive, stating that strategy was “rooted in partnership and military preeminence.” In a cover letter authorizing the new strategy, Admiral Keating explained that “it underscored the fundamental importance of sustained and persistent cooperation and collaboration in times of relative peace to mitigate situations that could lead to conflict and crisis.”

Changes to Market Demand Bob Nugent, in a presentation to the RUSI (Royal United Services Institute), reviews the impact of the pivot to Asia and the rise of the Asian economies on market demand for naval vessels. In a forecast for 2012-2013, he sees a maturing market for Offshore Patrol Vessels.

But Future OPV market by volume and value will still be concentrated in NATO countries and the United States. However, he sees 63% of forecasted new build OPV spending up to 2030 will be by non-NATO countries. He estimates that the strongest future OPV demand will be in emerging in Asia-Pacific and S. American markets. His view of the Middle Eastern and North African market is oriented toward more heavily armed corvettes and frigates. He thinks Saudi Arabia will continue to demand frigates and corvettes, Egypt fast missiles craft, and Algeria and Morocco corvettes. The Gulf States of UAE and Qatar will be in the market for both frigates and corvettes.

Tension in Asia With the rise of China and a changing balance of economic power and therefore military capability, there has been a rebalancing of the traditional regional political tensions.

For example, Japan has been taking a tougher approach to foreign policy. Recent rhetoric concerning the East China Sea and the Senkaku Islands, which the Chinese call the DiaoyuIslands, makes it appear that the Japanese government is taking a tougher approach on foreign policy and military affairs. Its decision to purchase the disputed islands in September triggered outrage from China and spawned observations that Japan is veering toward the right. 8 And whether it is veering towards the right or not the political views are very passionately held. Japanese citizens’ awareness of territorial issues with China, South Korea, and Russia has indeed risen in recent years, and conservative politicians are dominating headlines with declarations of Japan’s growing muscle: last month, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda vowed that he would “never compromise” on the territorial dispute with China. And even his rival, Shinzo Abe, former prime minister and leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), has similarly pledged to defend Japan’s territorial assets. This type of maritime tension has strong implications for higher levels of naval defence spending.

With the rise of China and a changing balance of economic power and therefore military capability, there has been a rebalancing of the traditional regional political tensions

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Naval Vessels in Action and How Requirements are Changing Meredith Llewellyn, Lead Contributor “The object of naval warfare must always be directly or indirectly either to secure command of the sea or to prevent the enemy from securing it” Sir Julian Corbett (l854-l922) British naval strategist

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It was the attack on a United States Navy guided-missile destroyer, USS Cole (DDG-67), on October 12, 2000, while it was harbored and being refueled in the Yemen port of Aden nearly a year before the Al Qaeda attack on the United States in 2001 that has been one of, if not the most significant catalyst to a change in thinking about naval vessels in the 21st century.

HERE WERE three naval incidents in the new century that have had a major effect on thinking about the role of frigates, corvettes and off shore patrol vessels. It was the attack on a United States Navy guided-missile destroyer, USS Cole (DDG-67), on October 12, 2000, while it was harbored and being refueled in the Yemen port of Aden nearly a year before the Al Qaeda attack on the United States in 2001 that has been one of, if not the most significant catalyst to a change in thinking about naval vessels in the 21st century. What happened? The USS Cole was in Aden for a routine fuel stop. According to reports USS Cole completed mooring at 09:30. Refueling started at 10:30. Around 11:18 local time a small craft approached the port side of the destroyer, and an explosion occurred, creating a 40-by40-foot gash in the ship’s port side. The blast appeared to be caused by explosives molded into a shaped charge against the hull of the boat. Around 400 to 700 pounds of explosive were said to be used. The blast hit the ship’s galley, where crew were lining up for lunch.

17 sailors were killed and 39 were injured in the blast.

The Rules of Engagement Did Not Allow the Sailors to Shoot Unless Shot at First According to the Daily Telegraph reports9, the suicide bombers used a small craft and approached the Cole as though they were assisting in the refueling. There was no outward sign of hostility until the two men aboard stood up and gave a salute moments before the craft exploded, blowing a 40ft hole in the Cole’s side.

The relaxed state of the crew and their rules of engagement did not allow them to shoot at the approaching small craft. This asymmetric attack on an American warship, the first since

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1987, signaled a change in vulnerability for large naval vessels and became a driver for a change in direction and demand for small mobile, fast moving, offshore maritime craft with changed rules of engagement.

The INS Hanit Attack by Hezbollah Anti-Ship Missile The second incident that changed perceptions of the type of naval vessel required was the attack on the Israeli Sa’ar 5-class corvette, built

by Northrop Grumman. In 2006, during the Lebanese war, the INS vessel was patrolling in Lebanese waters, 10 nautical miles off the coast of Beirut. It was attacked on July 14, 2006 on the waterline, by a missile fired by Hezbollah that reportedly set the flight deck on fire and crippled the propulsion systems inside the hull. The ship’s early warning system and missile defense system was not deployed. Four Israeli crewmembers were killed. According to Frank Gardner of the BBC reporting at the time10, the weapon used

by Hezbollah was the Iranian-made C-802 antiship missile, a variant of the Chinese Silkworm missile. More importantly still, Gardner argues that the Israeli military appears to have been taken by surprise by the attack and now believes that Iranian advisers from the IRGC were present at the launch of the missile.

The Sinking of the ROKS Cheonan Near the Border of North Korea But it was the sinking of the ROKS Cheonan, a South Korean Pohang-class corvette of the Republic of Korea Navy (ROKN), that is proving to be one of the key drivers for the upgrading of corvettes, frigates and offshore patrol vessels in Asia. On 26 March 2010, it broke in two and sank near the sea border with North Korea.

An investigation conducted by an international

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The use of asymmetric tactics by small craft and the use of torpedoes and submarines have led to a powerful feeling of vulnerability and a political demand that old vessels should be TYPE F 124 CLASS FRIGATE, GERMAN NAVY

team of experts from South Korea, United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and Sweden concluded that Cheonan was sunk by a torpedo launched by a North Korean Yeono class miniature submarine. On 9 July 2010, the United Nations Security Council issued a Presidential Statement condemning the attack but without identifying the attacker. This incident was taken very seriously indeed by both the United States and China and it ratcheted up the tension between the two countries as a report by RUSI notes11. The sinking of the Cheonan was followed by a calculated decision in the Pentagon to deploy the aircraft carrier USS George Washington to the Yellow Sea for a joint military drill with South Korean naval and air forces. The drill was intended to leave Pyongyang in no doubt of the resolve of the US-ROK alliance. The presence of the American aircraft carrier provoked a strong response. The strength of the reaction of China’s state-controlled media and of China’s Foreign Ministry to the carrier’s deployment

re equipped with the seemingly caught Washington off-guard with a series of editorials, statements and articles.

Most described the deployment as provocative, and one editorial went so far as to compare it to the Cuban Missile Crisis. In the most extreme example, a Chinese defence analyst was quoted as saying that the carrier would be targeted

by Chinese weapons systems.12

latest technologies and new platforms should be built to counter rising maritime threat levels

The Significance of These Three Events The impact of these three naval incidents has profoundly changed the perspective of many newly wealthy Asian nations with long littoral borders or a counter terrorism problem. The use of asymmetric tactics by small craft and the use of torpedoes and submarines have led to a powerful feeling of vulnerability and a political demand that old vessels should be re equipped with the latest technologies and new platforms should be built to counter rising maritime threat levels.

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Looking Over the Horizon: Naval Forces for the Future Mary Dub, Editor

“I’ve moved from being curious about what they’re doing, to being concerned about what they’re doing. I see a fairly significant investment in high-end equipment – satellites, ships … anti-ship missiles, obviously high-end aircraft and all those kinds of things. They are (also) shifting from a focus on their ground forces to focus on their navy … and their air force. It is the (lack of) transparency … with respect to China that is probably most vexing, because it is difficult to figure out where they’re headed.”

Joints Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen

Powerful fast vessels equipped with the latest anti missile technology and anti submarine warfare will undoubtedly be much in demand

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RESIDENT OBAMA’S ‘pivot to Asia’ has been much commented on in the press.

What does it mean for the future demand for new and the refitting and maintenance of legacy frigates, corvettes and offshore patrol vessels in the area? From the reporting of incidents in the Pacific area there is certainly some evidence of a need to enhance naval forces there. And the threat from a more active China may be growing.

In the recent November 2012 18th Party Congress, the retiring President Hu Jintao made it clear how important he thought defending China’s maritime interests is.

He said the Party “should [. . . ] resolutely safeguard China’s maritime rights and interests, and build China into a maritime power”.13 This seems to point to increasing tension in the area. How does this play out for Western and NATO naval forces? Some argue that Obama’s pivot to Asia is misguided and misunderstood,14 and that the pivot to Asia is based on a serious misreading of its target.

China, he says, remains far weaker than the United States and is deeply insecure. To make Beijing more cooperative, Washington should work to assuage China’s anxieties, not exploit them. The article quotes four examples of where China appears to be becoming more aggressive: firstly, at the 2009 Climate Change Conference, secondly, following the January 2010 sale of U.S. arms to Taiwan, at the Chinese government suspension of a senior U.S.-Chinese security dialogue and the announcement of unprecedented sanctions against U.S. companies with ties to Taiwan. Thirdly, in July 2010, Beijing angrily protested against plans for U.S.-

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TYPE F 124 CLASS FRIGATE, GERMAN NAVY

South Korean naval exercises in the Yellow Sea, and in September, it excoriated Japan for detaining the captain of a Chinese fishing boat that had rammed a Japanese coast guard ship in disputed waters. Finally to cap it all, it put paid to work done to note its ‘peaceful rise”, by imposing economic sanctions on Norway after the Nobel Prize committee awarded the Chinese democracy activist Liu Xiaobo the Peace Prize in October 2010.

The Other Option to Rearming and Tension While the talk of maritime tension and the need for area denial seems like good news for shipbuilders, there are others who argue that ratcheting up tension and increasing naval forces is not the best way forward. Professor Peter Nolan of the Judge Business School in Cambridge in the United Kingdom argues that there is only one option “cooperation with China”.

If America seeks long-term security, it faces a ‘choice of no choice’. It must cooperate with Communist China to support the construction of a harmonious society internally within China. The areas of necessary cooperation include resolving

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K130 CLASS CORVETTE. GERMAN NAVY

China’s energy needs, its ecological difficulties, its financial system reform, reform of its health and education system, and supporting China’s efforts to establish a just distribution of income.

In other words, it must accept and contribute to China’s peaceful development.15 However, whether tension can be lowered or not, there is unlikely to be a strong argument for slowing down the modernization of naval fleets in the area. Powerful fast vessels equipped with the latest anti missile technology and anti submarine warfare will undoubtedly be much in demand.

Worse, illegal, unregulated, and unreported (IUU) fishing is estimated to cost sub-Saharan Africa about $1 billion annually. While the economically strong countries of Asia may have the resources to face the need for maritime security by building naval fleets, Africa may have to use other methods. Vogel at the National Defense University makes the case for remote sensing and monitoring to reinforce meager security fleets and the use of the latest technologies as force multipliers to improve security and bolster trade and economic development in Africa.

The Hazards to Shipping of African Littoral Area According to the National Defense University

The Case for Upgrading and Retrofitting Legacy Fleets with the Latest Technologies

While some countries are focusing on Asia, Africa is also a major and significant source of interest. Africa’s coast line has been hazardous for trade for decades with narcotics traffickers now moving an estimated 50–60 tons of cocaine every year through West Africa to Europe.

Piracy and hostage-taking has doubled in the last two years. More than 1,000 hostages were seized in 218 piracy attacks off East Africa in 2010, double the number of incidents in 2008.

And armed robberies of local and international vessels in Nigerian waters continue to be a challenge with analysts expecting increasing numbers of kidnappings at sea in 2011.16

To return to the opening thought of this article, the technology arms race is already being led

by China and other Asian countries. In the face of arms build-ups and fleet building by economically strong countries, it is difficult not to follow the path and rely solely on negotiation and cooperation. While the argument for peaceful cooperation to enhance global trade and universal economic interests is certainly compelling, the urgent requirement to ensure that naval vessels are effective in their role in delivering security by being prepared and armed for asymmetric attack, torpedo assault or submarine measures cannot be ignored.

In the face of arms buildups and fleet building by economically strong countries, it is difficult not to follow the path and rely solely on negotiation and cooperation

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References: 1

http://www.rusi.org/downloads/assets/Bob_Nugent.pdf Will “Warships” Still be Relevant to Navies by 2025? If So, What Types of “Warship”, and to Whom?’ Bob Nugent, AMI Int’l 6 July 2011 http://www.rusi.org/downloads/assets/Bob_Nugent.pdf Will “Warships” Still be Relevant to Navies by 2025? If So, What Types of “Warship”, and to

2

Whom?’ Bob Nugent, AMI Int’l 6 July 2011 Visiongain 2011-2021 http://www.visiongain.com/Report/580/The-Warships-Naval-Vessels-Market-2011-2021

3

4

Visiongain 2013-23 http://www.visiongain.com/Report/922/The-Warships-Naval-Vessels-Market-2013-2023

5

Visiongain 2013-23 http://www.visiongain.com/Report/922/The-Warships-Naval-Vessels-Market-2013-2023

6

http://www.ndu.edu/inss/docuploaded/PLAN_Cole_Remarks.pdf China’s New Navy: The State of Play in 2010. Bernard D. Cole Professor, National War College Fort Lesley J. McNair, Washington, D.C. 20319-50789

7

A paper featured at the 2011 Pacific Symposium: The New Security Environment – Implications for American Security in the Asia Pacific Region.

Hosted by: The Institute for National Strategic Studies of The National Defense University. 4-5 April 2011 By SHELDON SIMON

8

Tokyo’s Missing Muscle How Japan’s Politics Derail its Military Strategy

Takashi Yokota and Kirk Spitzer October 17, 2012

9

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/yemen/1374316/Bombed-US-warship-was-defended-by-sailors-with-unloaded-guns.html

10

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/5242566.stm Hesbollah Missile Threat Assessed by Frank Gardner, Jeruslaem

11

http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4C5C029388C73/#.UNLvPo40jdk

12

13

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Growing Tension in East Asia RUSI Analysis, 6 Aug 2010 By John Hemmings, Senior Fellows Co-ordinator / Research Analyst RUSI http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4C5C029388C73/#.UNLvPo40jdk Growing Tension in East Asia RUSI Analysis, 6 Aug 2010 By John Hemmings, Senior Fellows Co-ordinator / Research Analyst RUSI http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ebd9b4ae-296f-11e2-a604-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2Ft5B7a7F Hu calls for China to be ‘maritime power’

By Kathrin Hille in Beijing November 8, 2012 http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/138211/robert-s-ross/the-problem-with-the-pivot The Problem With the Pivot. Obama’s New Asia Policy Is Unnecessary and Counterproductive By Robert S. Ross. November/December 2012 Foreign Affairs

15

http://www.gbcc.org.uk/files/documents/CR50x.pdf THE END OF WILD CAPITALISM BY PETER NOLAN

16

http://www.ndu.edu/press/lib/pdf/africa-security-brief/asb-10.pdf Investing in Science and Technology to Meet Africa’s Maritime Security Challenges

BY AUGUSTUS VOGElFebruary 2011

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Notes:

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Notes:

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