New York City Q3 2020 Real Estate Market Report

Q3 | 2020

New York City

Market Update

220 Central Park South, Apt 36B

1

New York City Managers Message

We continued to keep the health and safety of our community as our top priority as we move into the fourth quarter. We are conducting in-person showings, following the CDC guidelines, and our consumers continue to become more comfortable in the virtual space and our agents are ready with the technology and resources to meet them there whether buying, selling, or renting. We invite you to review a summary of sales activity in the New York City area during the third quarter of 2020, based on closed production from July - September 2020. ACRIS and Property Shark reports the market data in the following pages for this quarter, which is compared here to the same period of 2019.

Heading into the final quarter of 2020, we wanted to bring your attention to a few important indicators: •

There was a 28% increase in the number of listings on the market compared to Q3 2019, and an increase of 57% compared to Q2 2020 which justifies a strong buyers’ market and the greatest opportunity to purchase in Manhattan since 2009.

•

The number of closed sales remains down significantly year-over-year, but is increasing monthly as contracts continue to be signed.

•

The energy of the city is returning to normal as New Yorkers return from summer break for work and school.

We are always committed to providing the highest quality service and will continue to support our clients with a suite of virtual marketing tools that are effective with today’s buyers. We look forward to working with you to meet your real estate needs. If you have any questions about the New York City market, please reach out to us or any of our associates.

DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN BROKERAGE

Diane Levine, Executive Vice President of Sales - NYC 149 Fifth Avenue, 4th Floor | New York, NY 10010 | 212.431.2440

1120 Park Avenue, Apt 20/21A

EAST SIDE MANHATTAN BROKERAGE

Marissa Ghesquiere, Senior Vice President of Sales - NYC 650 Madison Avenue | New York, NY 10022 | 212.606.7660 SOTHEBYSREALTY.COM

All New York City

Luxury Market

04 Market Overview

09 Luxury Market

05 Market Snapshot | All Areas 06 Inventory | Absorption Rate 07 Days on Market | Listing Discount

Ownership Type Analysis

Neighborhood Analysis

10 Condos

14 Upper East Side

12 Co-ops

14 Upper West Side 15 Midtown 15 Uptown 16 Downtown 16 FiDi | Battery Park 17 Total Sales 17 Average Sales Price

3

28 Laight Street, TH-1D

Market Overview {Q3 | 2020}

MANHATTAN Looking at the third quarter, we continued to see Covid-19’s profound impact on Manhattan real estate. Residential sales fell 44% year-over-year, driven by a 47% decline in sales below $3M and an 18% decline in sales between $3M and $10M. Contracts signed in the third quarter were up 167% compared to Q2 2020, when the shelter in place order was in full effect. The average sales price in the third quarter of 2020 increased 32% year-over-year from $1.69M in Q3 2019 to $2.22M in Q3 2020. It is important to note that this pricing trend is not an accurate representation of the current market conditions in Manhattan, as we saw several high priced units that had been in contract for 12 or more months in new development projects close this quarter, skewing the average price of sold properties higher. The median price of sold properties was down 22% from Q3 2019 and is more in line with the general pricing conditions in Manhattan.

1,661 Closed Sales

-44

%

Change in Closed Sales {2020 v 2019}

2.22M

$

Average Sales Price

+32

%

Change in Average Sales Price {2020 v 2019}

The ASP compares 2020 to 2019 and can NOT be construed to indicate changes in pricing due to Covid.

Number of Closed Sales vs. Inventory

Average / Median Sales Price

8,000 $3,000,000

7,000 $2, 500 ,000

6,000 5,000

$2, 000,000

4,000

$1,500,0 00

3,000 $1,0 00,000

2,000 $50 0,000

1,000 -

$-

Q3:18 Q4:18 Q1:19 Q2:19 Q3:19 Q4:19 Q1:20 Q2:20 Q3:20 # of Closed Sales

# of Closed Sales

Q3:18 Q4:18 Q1:19 Q2:19 Q3:19 Q4:19 Q1:20 Q2:20 Q3:20

Inventory

Inventory

Average Sales Price

Median Sales Price

Number of Closed Sales

Average Sales Price

Median Sales Price

{2020 v 2019}

-47%

1%

-8%

3Q:20

1,401

$1.13M

$922K

3Q:19

2,655

$1.12M

$1.00M

{2020 v 2019}

-18%

-2%

-2%

3Q:20

225

$4.75M

$4.40M

3Q:19

274

$4.85M

$4.50M

{2020 v 2019}

19%

25%

4%

3Q:20

34

$30.02M

$16.07M

3Q:19

29

$24.01M

$15.40M

{2020 v 2019}

-44%

32%

-22%

3Q:20

1,661

$2.22M

$1.05M

3Q:19

2,958

$1.69M

$1.35M

UNDER

$3 Million

BETWEEN

$3 - 10 Million

OVER

$10 Million

ALL

Price Points

Overview

/ New York City Q3 Market Update

5

Inventory All New York City

5%

3% 1%

Number of Active 9/30/20 Listings

6% 38%

3,634 2,569 1,867 603 514 265 107

20%

9,559

27% Under $1M

$1-2M

$2-4M

4-6M

6-10M

10-20M

Under $1 Million $1 - 2 Million $2 - 4 Million $4 - 6 Million $6 - 10 Million $10 - 20 Million $20 Million and Above TOTAL

$20M+

CONDOS & CO-OPS (based on 12 months of closed sales 9/30/2019 - 9/30/2020)

The historic absorption range of equilibrium for the New York City market area is 6-8 months. As the market begins to show signs of normalizing, the built up inventory had a dramatic impact on the absorption rate following the pause during the second quarter. With 9,559 active units currently on the market coupled with the decline in sales over the last 3-months, the absorption rate has pushed to 17.3 months and reflects the first time in recent history that the absorption rate has pushed into double digits. This statistic means that it would take more than 17 months to absorb the active inventory that is currently on the market based upon the rate of sales over the last 3-months.

The top four price points above $4M currently have more than a 19 months worth of active inventory. There was a 28% increase in the number of listings on the market compared to Q3 2019, and an increase of 57% compare to Q2 2020. The largest number of active listings were in the second quarter of 2009 when there were more than 10,000 listing on the market.

45 40 35

Absorption Rate

30 25 20

Line of Equilibrium

15

Absorption

10 5 0

Under $1M

$1-2M

$2-4M

4-6M

6-10M

10-20M

$20M+

The absorption rate isAbsorption calculated by taking total number of currently active listings and dividing by the average number of Line the of Equilibrium closed sales over the 12-month period.

Average Days on Market Listing Discount

All New York City

Average Days on Market Listing Discount

Q3 2018

Q4 2018

Q1 2019

Q2 2019

Q3 2019

Q4 2019

Q1 2020

Q2 2020

Q3 2020

112

98

112

131

113

112

127

152

154

-4.6%

-4.6%

-5.1%

-5.3%

-5.4%

-4.9%

-5.2%

-5.8%

-6.8%

Average Days on Market vs. Listing Discount -8.0%

160

-7.0 %

140

-6.0%

120

-5. 0%

10 0

-4.0%

80

-3.0%

60

-2.0%

40

-1.0 %

20

Q3:18

Q4:18

Q1:19

Q2:19

Q3:19

Q4:19

Q1:20

Q2:20

Q3:20

0.0%

0

Listing Discount

Average Days on Market

Average Days on Market

Listing Discount

Overview

/ New York City Q3 Market Update

7

PHOTO BY GIAMMARCO BOSCARO ON UNSPLASH

w i n e i s a n e v e r- e n d i n g j o u r n e y. sothebyswine.com

AUCTION • RETAIL • ADVISORY New York Hong Kong London

AUCTION • RETAIL • ADVISORY New York Hong Kong London

The Luxury Market All New York City Co-Ops & Condos Over $10M

Closed Sales Count, Average Sales Price & Highest Sales Price

Q3 2018

Q4 2018

Q1 2019

Q2 2019

Q3 2019

Q4 2019

Q1 2020

Q2 2020

Q3 2020

42

63

48

109

29

28

39

18

34

Average Sales Price

$17.62M

$22.08M

$24.32M

$16.94M

$24.01M

$32.76M

$18.01M

$22.86M

30.02M

Highest Sales Price

$43.50M

$73.80M

$239.96M

$51.55M

$65.75M

$92.74M

$52.19M

$56.26M 99.90M

# of Closed Sales

A strong end to the third quarter of 2020 which saw 34 luxury sales, up 19% compared to Q3 2019. All of the sold properties were in condominium buildings, with a significant portion of them being new development product in contract for 12 months or more. Average prices increased 25% year-over-year from $24.0M in Q3 2019 to $30.0M in Q3 2020. The highest recorded sale in Q3 2020 was $99.9M at 220 Central Park South after originally being listed in September 2016.

S OT H EBYS R EA LTY.C O M

Average Sales Price vs. # of Closed Sales $35,000,000

120

$30,000,000

100

$25,000,000

80

$20,000,000

60

$15,000,000

40

$10,000,000

20

$5,000,000 $0

Q3:18

Q4:18

Q1:19

Q2:19

# of Closed Sales # of Closed Sales

Q3:19

Q4:19

Q1:20

Q2:20

Q3:20

Average Price Average SalesSales Price

The Luxury Market

/ New York City Q3 Market Update

9

Condos {Q3 | 2020}

MANHATTAN

The 733 closed condo sales this quarter reflected a 41% decrease in the number of sold units compared to the 1,239 condo sales in Q3 2019. The average sales price increased 45% year-over-year to nearly $3.6M this quarter. The median sales price increased by 23% to $1.83M compared to $1.48M in Q3 2019. The average price per square foot increased by 20% to $2,428/sf compared to $2,015/sf in Q3 2019.

733 Closed Sales

-41

%

Change in Closed Sales {2020 v 2019}

3.56M

$

Average Sales Price

+45

%

Change in Average Sale Price {2020 v 2019}

500 West 21st Street, Apt 4D

Number of Closed Sales

Average / Median Sales Price

2,000

$4,000,000

1,800

$3,500,000

1,600

$3,000,000

1,400

$2,500,000

1,200

$2,000,000

1,000 $1,500,000 800 $1,000,000 600 $500,000

400

$0

200 -

Average Sales Price

Q3:18 Q4:18 Q1:19 Q2:19 Q3:19 Q4:19 Q1:20 Q2:20 Q3:20

Median Sales Price

Number of Closed Sales

Average Sales Price

Median Sales Price

Average Price/Sq. Ft.

{2020 v 2019}

-48%

5%

9%

-2%

3Q:20

529

$1.44M

$1.38M

$1,429

3Q:19

1,011

$1.38M

$1.26M

$1,454

{2020 v 2019}

-17%

-6%

-14%

-9%

3Q:20

169

$4.78M

$4.09M

$2,146

3Q:19

204

$5.10M

$4.76M

$2,363

{2020 v 2019}

44%

20%

-18%

14%

3Q:20

34

$30.02M

$18.00M

$6,396

3Q:19

24

$25.04M

$21.88M

$5,622

{2020 v 2019}

-41%

45%

23%

20%

3Q:20

733

$3.56M

$1.83M

$2,428

3Q:19

1,239

$2.45M

$1.48M

$2,015

UNDER

$3 Million

BETWEEN

$3 - 10 Million

ABOVE

$10 Million

ALL

Price Points

Condos

/ New York City Q3 Market Update

11

Co-Ops {Q3 | 2020}

MANHATTAN

The 928 closed Co-Op sales this quarter reflected a 46% decline in the number of sold units compared to the 1,719 Co-Op sales in Q3 2019. The average sales price increased marginally by 2% year-overyear to $1.16M in Q3 2020 from $1.14M in Q3 2019. The median sales price also fell 11% to $759,500 compared to $850,000 in Q3 2019.

928 Closed Sales

-46

%

Change in Closed Sales {2020 v 2019}

1.16M

$

Average Sales Price

+2

%

Change in Average Sales Price {2020 v 2019}

778 Park Avenue, 2nd Floor

Number of Closed Sales

Average / Median Sales Price

2,000

$1,600,000

1,800

$1,400,000

1,600

$1,200,000

1,400

$1,000,000

1,200 $800,000 1,000 $600,000 800 $400,000 600 $200,000

400

$0

200 -

Average Sales Price

Q3:18 Q4:18 Q1:19 Q2:19 Q3:19 Q4:19 Q1:20 Q2:20 Q3:20

Median Sales Price

Number of Closed Sales

Average Sales Price

Median Sales Price

{2020 v 2019}

-47%

-1%

-2%

3Q:20

872

$942K

$750K

3Q:19

1,644

$956K

$765K

{2020 v 2019}

-21%

13%

21%

3Q:20

55

$4.65M

$4.30M

3Q:19

70

$4.12M

$3.56M

{2020 v 2019}

-100%

N/A

N/A

3Q:20

0

N/A

N/A

3Q:19

5

$19.06M

$10.50M

{2020 v 2019}

-46%

2%

-11%

3Q:20

928

$1.16M

$760K

3Q:19

1,719

$1.14M

$850K

UNDER

$3 Million

BETWEEN

$3 - 10 Million

ABOVE

$10 Million

ALL

Price Points

Co-Ops

/ New York City Q3 Market Update

13

NEW YORK CITY

Neighborhood Highlights Upper East Side | north of 58th street and south of 96th Street, Fifth Avenue to East End Avenue CONDOS

Q3 2020

Q3 2019

% Change

Closed Sales

103

171

-40%

Average Sales Price

$2.58M

$2.17M

19%

Median Sales Price

$1.56M

$1.37M

14%

Q3 2020

Q3 2019

% Change

285

456

-38%

Average Sales Price

$1.47M

$1.44

2%

Median Sales Price

$953M

$950M

0%

COOPS Closed Sales

Upper West Side | north of 58th Street and south of 110th Street, CPW to Riverside Drive (including CPS) CONDOS

Q3 2020

Q3 2019

% Change

Closed Sales

202

194

4%

Average Sales Price

$5.94M

$3.94M

51%

Median Sales Price

$2.14M

$1.58M

36%

Q3 2020

Q3 2019

% Change

192

371

-48%

Average Sales Price

$1.28M

$1.27M

0%

Median Sales Price

$780K

$930M

-16%

COOPS Closed Sales

Midtown | north of 34th Street and south of 57th Street CONDOS

Q3 2020

Q3 2019

% Change

Closed Sales

88

186

-52%

Average Sales Price

$2.47M

$1.39M

78%

Median Sales Price

$1.05M

$1.08M

-3%

Q3 2020

Q3 2019

% Change

139

225

-38%

Average Sales Price

$668K

$773K

-14%

Median Sales Price

$600K

$640K

-6%

COOPS Closed Sales

Uptown | north of 96th Street on the East Side and north of 110th Street on the West Side CONDOS

Q3 2020

Q3 2019

% Change

Closed Sales

54

105

-49%

Average Sales Price

$1.14M

$916K

25%

Median Sales Price

$904K

$825K

10%

Q3 2020

Q3 2019

% Change

64

177

-64%

Average Sales Price

$576K

$583K

-1%

Median Sales Price

$499K

$500K

0%

COOPS Closed Sales

Neighborhood Highlights

/ New York City Q3 Market Update

15

NEW YORK CITY

Neighborhood Highlights Downtown | South of 34th Street through TriBeCa CONDOS

Q3 2020

Q3 2019

% Change

Closed Sales

208

508

-59%

Average Sales Price

$3.44M

$2.86M

20%

Median Sales Price

$2.25M

$2.05M

10%

Q3 2020

Q3 2019

% Change

238

474

-50%

Average Sales Price

$1.16M

$1.13M

2%

Median Sales Price

$825K

$835K

-1%

COOPS Closed Sales

Financial District / Battery Park CONDOS

Q3 2020

Q3 2019

% Change

Closed Sales

76

75

-35%

Average Sales Price

$1.84M

$1.23M

-12%

Median Sales Price

$1.90M

$930K

-12%

Q3 2020

Q3 2019

% Change

9

16

-35%

Average Sales Price

$1.11M

$832K

-12%

Median Sales Price

$1.03M

$808K

-12%

COOPS Closed Sales

Total Number of Sales by Neighborhood 1,600 1,400 1,200

Upper East Side

1,000

Upper West Side

800

Midtown

600

Downtown

400

Uptown

200

FiDi / Battery Park

0

Q3:18

Q4:18

Q1:19

Q2:19

Q3:19

Q4:19

Q1:20

Upper East Side

Upper West Side

Midtown

UPPER MANHATTAN

Downtown

FiDi/BPC

Q2:20

Q3:20

Average Sales Price by Neighborhood $4,000,000 $3,500,000 $3,000,000

Upper East Side

$2,500,000

Upper West Side Midtown

$2,000,000

Downtown

$1,500,000

Uptown

$1,000,000

FiDi / Battery Park

$500,000 $0

Q3:18 Upper East Side

Q4:18

Q1:19

Upper West Side

Q2:19

Q3:19 Midtown

Q4:19 Uptown

Q1:20

Q2:20

Downtown

Neighborhood Highlights

Q3:20 Fidi/BPC

/ New York City Q3 Market Update

17

Manhattan Brokerages

sothebysrealty.com

DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN BROKERAGE

EAST SIDE MANHATTAN BROKERAGE

212.431.2440

212.606.7660

Back cover feature property: 25 West 11th Street © Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Figures in this report are based on publicly reported closed sales information via the Automated City Register Information System (ACRIS) and PropertyShark, an independent research firm. This material is based upon information which we consider reliable but because it has been supplied by third parties, we cannot represent that it is accurate or complete and it should be relied upon as such. Since all final closed data for the current quarter had not been reported at the time this report was compiled, the available closed data was extrapolated in an attempt to approximate full results for the current quarter. Actual results may materially vary from the approximated results. This offering is subject to errors, omissions, changes including price or withdrawal without notice. If your property is listed with a real estate broker, please disregard. It is not our intention to solicit the offerings of other real estate brokers. We are happy to work with them and co-operate fully. Sotheby’s International Realty and the Sotheby’s International Realty logo are registered (or unregistered) service marks used with permission. Operated by Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Real estate agents affiliated with Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. are independent contractor sales associates and are not employees of Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Equal Housing Opportunity.