WHEN IN NEED FOR A

The Cone of Possibilities is used to better understand and evaluate the potential consequences or outcomes of certain developments over time. To do so, the horizontal timeline is divided into Horizon 1, 2 and 3.

Possible. Plausible. Probable. Preferred.

The vertical axis is the likelihood of an event taking place. The widest part of the cone represents all potential possibilities. The middle part of the cone shows the most probable outcome. In between, we have a zone of events that might become plausible. The aim of this exercise is to challenge our own assumptions.

Challenging your assumptions

At the top end of the cone (positive impact), we stretch our belief system into socalled Moonshots, which encourages us to think big and beyond. In this way, we will discover where we encounter some of our limiting beliefs. The cone can even be stretched one step further, into the area of Loonshots: ideas so radical that it starts to feel extremely uncomfortable and our view of the world is in some way challenged. (Could you imagine a time when we won't be flying anymore? Or an airport without planes?)

Anticipating 21st century changes

At the bottom end of the cone, the negative impact, we enter an area often referred to as Black Swans. These are rare and unpredictable events that can have a significant impact on the course of events. The recent pandemic is a clear example. These events are a reminder to also be aware of and prepared for the unexpected.

Backcasting from a future vision to the job-to-be-done today

Especially in horizon three we deliberately consider the fact that underlying social values might shift over time, making certain ideas, projects or events more likely from a future perspective (backcasting) than perceived looking through the lens of today.