NAFD News

NAFD commissions mortality rate modelling to help fi rms prepare

In early May, the National Association of Funeral Directors commissioned the consultancy Europe Economics to produce scenario models that show what the future path of the UK mortality rate might look like to September 2020, especially as lockdown is lifted.

The results suggest that, even if the government is successful in controlling the spread of coronavirus at a national level, postlockdown, some regions of the UK could be in for a signifi cant second peak of deaths, from all causes, and that second peak could be higher if lock down is lifted less successfully. With funeral directors under signifi cant and sustained pressure, the NAFD has been pressing Government on a weekly basis for the modelling data upon which it is basing its strategy for COVID-19 to support future planning. With no information being provided, the research was therefore commissioned to provide funeral directors with some idea of what could come next, to allow them to plan effectively under various scenarios following a lifting of lockdown. The scenarios model potential deaths from all causes, not just COVID-19 and are based on bringing together published, respected data, including: • Two scientifi c views of the Infection Fatality

Rate, one promoted by Oxford University, the Swedish government and Stanford

University and the other promoted by

Imperial College London and others. • Scientifi c analysis of the reproduction rate in different regions of the UK during the lockdown. • ONS (and equivalent) weekly deaths data from the four nations of the UK. • A range of other known and published information about the COVID-19 pandemic.

It should be noted that the data provides only an approximate indication of the range within which deaths in each area of the UK lie, under a set of plausible scenarios reflecting the very considerable scientifi c and policy uncertainty at this time. The models use epidemiological and other scientifi c assumptions drawn from the current literature, but do not endorse any specifi c conclusions, given the very considerable scientifi c debate there is about many aspects of these matters at present.

Commenting on the findings, Andrew Lilico (leader of the Europe Economics team) said:

“The current situation includes great uncertainty regarding both how things are now (e.g. the infection fatality rate of COVID-19 and how many people have already been infected) and how things might evolve in the future (especially regarding the reproduction rate postlockdown and what will happen to non-COVID deaths). “Although a number of overall fi gures for expected fi nal fatalities from COVID-19 are discussed in the press, that is of limited value to funeral directors who need to understand how many deaths there might be in their regions at particular dates, and about deaths from causes other than COVID-19. We hope that the models we have produced, though they cover a range of possibilities reflecting current uncertainties, will assist funeral directors in making their business decisions and in providing the best service to bereaved people over the next few months.”

Jon Levett, Chief Executive of the NAFD, added:

“What is striking about the modelling is that, based upon the most cautious model of how many Britons have already become infected, different parts of the UK and different regions FuneralTimes | 45 FuneralTimes | 1

within England would see signifi cant second peaks with even a successful lifting of the lockdown - most notably Scotland*, Wales, and the North East & Yorkshire. “If lockdown is lifted less successfully, the impact is even more striking, with the potential for those regions to see a second peak that is actually higher than the fi rst. The North West, South West would also be signifi cantly affected by a less than successful lifting of lockdown, while London, the East of England, Midlands and Northern Ireland are predicted to have a far lower impact. “This suggests that, until such time as we know which of the two models is prevailing, funeral directors in many parts of the UK need to prepare themselves for a signifi cant potential second peak in the death rate – should the government’s easing of lock down measures not go as well as they are hoping. It is a further indication of just how volatile the situation remains and the importance of working together to get this right as a nation, be that as individuals, as organisations or as governments.” “Given the funeral sector’s central role in responding to the pandemic and the importance of having a robust funeral profession at this very diffi cult time, this also highlights the importance of the ongoing dialogue between the sector and Government about the potential support

“If lockdown is lifted less successfully, the impact is even more striking, with the potential for those regions to see a second peak that is actually higher than the first.

that might be needed by funeral fi rms, in the short and long term. What is needed will vary from fi rm to fi rm and government support can take many forms. To date, the NAFD has focused on issues that will be helpful for all fi rms, including to interest free loans (which was subsequently granted through the introduction of Bounce Back loans, improvements to the typical 10-week wait for approval of Funeral Expenses Payments by the Department for Work & Pensions and a VAT freeze on PPE – which was announced last week.” The intention is to update these models regularly, as new inputs are available - such as the details of how lock down will be lifted in different parts of the UK, the experience of lifting lock down in other countries, progress towards effective therapeutic treatments etc. Andrew Lilico, who has led the Europe Economics team for this project, is one of Europe’s top economists and the holder of a PhD in Game theory – the study of mathematical models of strategic interaction among rational decision-makers. He is a regular commentator on BBC television and radio, and on Sky, Bloomberg and CNBC Europe. His fi rm, Europe Economics, is also providing the NAFD with analysis of the economic impact of COVID-19 on the funeral profession in the short and long term.

*Scotland mortality data is gathered slightly differently and therefore there is a greater level of uncertainty around the precise accuracy of these findings – although they do indicate risk significant enough to suggest funeral directors should plan for its likelihood.

NAFD presses Government to introduce Crisis Funeral Loan

The National Association of Funeral Directors is urging the Government to introduce a Crisis Funeral Loan to assist thousands of bereaved people having to unexpectedly pay for a funeral.

With funerals having increased around 30% since the COVID-19 pandemic began and given its economic impact, with unemployment rising sharply, there are now more people struggling with their fi nances, including the cost of one or in some case two funerals. This puts increased burden and mental strain on bereaved people at an already very diffi cult time. The Crisis Funeral Loan would help alleviate that, while also ensuring that the Government does not suffer fi nancially in the long term. Jon Levett, Chief Executive of the National Association of Funeral Directors, the profession’s largest trade body, said: “It is a desperately hard time for those losing loved ones during this pandemic, and worrying about being able to pay for a funeral, and in some cases two, can heap worry onto people at a time when they are already grieving.

“A simple loan, payable back over 12 or 24 months, would take so much of that stress away. “The Government has sought to help people through these diffi cult times, and the introduction of the Crisis Funeral Loan would show a proactive and compassionate approach and be a huge help to the bereaved.” A background research document stating the case for the Crisis Funeral Loan has been written by Alison Crake, past NAFD president and senior partner at Crake and Mallon Funeral Service. It is available to download from the NAFD website, along with her letter to the Rt. Hon. Boris Johnson MP, Prime Minister. The NAFD has proposed to the Government that the loan can be administered through two existing mechanisms, the Bounceback Loan and Child Funeral Fund. Mr Levett said: “By proposing existing mechanisms, hopefully it removes levels of

structure and administration that will help the Government, which has always stressed that it is keen to help bereaved people.”

The NAFD works hard to ensure the profession is recognised for its role and supported by Government. Given the funeral sector’s central role in responding to the pandemic and the importance of having a robust funeral profession at this very diffi cult time, the NAFD has been in discussions with Government on other topics too, throughout the pandemic, to seek practical support for the sector on key issues. Among the NAFD’s requests were for access to interest free loans (which was subsequently granted through the introduction of Bounce Back loans), improvements to the typical 10-week wait for approval of Funeral Expenses Payments by the Department for Work & Pensions and a VAT freeze on Personal Protective Equipment – which was announced at the start of May. In addition to representing funeral directors in meetings with a wide range of government departments, the NAFD also continues to ensure that it takes up all opportunities to highlight the work of funeral directors as key workers to the public. Facebook posts asking the public to include funeral workers in their thoughts each Thursday have now reached a collective total of more than a quarter of a million people – with Twitter posts on the same theme reaching a further 50,000 people. NAFD spokespeople have now responded to more than 150 media interview or briefi ng requests with coverage including BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, You & Yours, ITV News, ITV Good Morning Britain, BBC regional radio and television, Sky News and all of the national media news outlets in print and digital form, on multiple occasions. It was also heartening to hear a shout out to the profession by Graham Norton, on his BBC Radio 2 show, inspired by tweets the NAFD exchanged with the singer Hazell Dean. FuneralTimes | 47 FuneralTimes | 3

NFE 2021 - the countdown has begun!

Friday 11 – Sunday 13 June 2021 -Stoneleigh Park, Warwickshire

The National Funeral Exhibition (NFE) is one of the top three funeral trade shows in the world and is attended by professionals from all over the globe. More than 4,500 people attended the 2019 show. With just twelve months to go, exhibition space is selling out fast for NFE 2021 - with 59% already sold.

Given the challenging circumstances in which the profession finds itself, the National Association of Funeral Directors has extended the discount for space only until the end of June 2020 - so don’t delay, book today!

New for 2021 will be the opening of a dedicated education arena offering a broader range of content than ever before. We are actively looking for expressions of interests from potential speakers - so please do get in touch if there is a subject on which you would like to address the profession.

We are anticipating needs for post COVID-19 additional measures in respect of cleanliness and social distancing and are building these needs into our planning for the show to ensure that it will be a safe and enjoyable experience that meets the needs of any Government

requirements at the time.

We are also bringing back our dedicated team of stewards, to support and assist exhibitors throughout the show, as many exhibitors found them to be a welcome addition at the 2019 event, helping to make the experience of exhibiting as positive as possible.

Visitors and exhibitors will also be able to enjoy a welcome break from the show floor at one of the new expanded catering outlets that will be available across all halls.

NFE 2021 will, once again, offer a range of sponsorship packages that provide a compelling brand proposition for suppliers to the sector and which are individually tailored - no one size fits all.

Secure your space today to ensure you have an important opportunity planned into 2021 where you can focus firmly on the future of your business as the funeral sector re-shapes and re-energises itself in its longer term response to the coronavirus pandemic. Contact the team today at funeralexhibition@nafd.org.uk or visit nationalfuneralexhibition.co.uk.

Finlay

Tierney Street Ardee Co Louth Ireland

t: roi: +353 (0) 41 685 3603 - t: uk & ni: +44 (0) 870 241 0652 - f: +353 (0) 41 685 6353 - e: info@finlaygrp.com - w: www.finlaygrp.com

FINLAY in COVID-19 We are committed to supporting the needs of the Funeral Sector through the pandemic period and as we move to the conclusion of the first phase of the pandemic period we wish to let you know how we have changed and adapted our business to support you now and in the months ahead.

Planning / Guidance for 2020-2021

We do not know what the remainder of 2020 will bring but we can take nothing for granted.

Steps we have taken to prepare our business

• We continue to proactively adapt and update our business and our Team for working through the pandemic period. • We have prepared and keep an up to date forecast model of all potential mortality rates both Covid and all causes. • We currently have wood supplies in process or on hand to produce c.2,500 coffins and we intend to very carefully plan our material supply lines to ensure adequate materials are always available. • We continue to spend significant time forecasting our material needs and planning our supply chain to ensure raw material supplies are available as needed and to help navigate the inevitable supply chain closures which will follow through 2020-2021 and beyond. When the lockdown took effect, we prepared a supply chain plan and we found that we have 149 operational suppliers from eleven countries. We continue to talk with these suppliers on a daily and weekly basis to understand how they are planning for and managing the new realities for operating a business. • Over the past nine weeks we have recruited and trained up to 15 additional Team members for our business to cover both increased outputs together with cover for Team members who have had to selfisolate. Currently, we have enough work on to maintain our extra staff for now and we will continue to monitor the mortality rate in planning our Team needs. It normally takes up to 12 weeks to train new members in the factory so all credit to Alan McDonnell (Factory Foreman), John Devitt (Health & Safety

Officer), Martin Carroll (Warehouse Foreman) and our Team Leaders (Pawel, Gordon and Aurelija) for managing this training during the pandemic period. • We have adapted and will further adapt our Factory operations to ensure safety for all employees to allow social distancing and increased output. Our Factory workstations provide adequate physical distancing for all our colleagues. • Our Factory is now operating for more hours each day with a 6:30am start time and 9pm finishing time.

Steps we will take if necessary, to prepare our business

• As we see how the pandemic evolves, we will adapt and change our business working to support you our

Partner Funeral Professionals as best we can.

Finlay Team

We believe a business is only as good as the people in its Team, our ability to react to prepare our business has been a credit to our Team who we are deeply grateful too.

We are your Partner whether you are a current Customer or not, we will do our utmost to support you and your bereaved Families when you need us.

Excellence in Funeral Products and Services Registered Irl: 129795

What to do with post cremation remains ?

Are families unsure about what to do with their loved one’s ashes after a cremation service?

With the increasing popularity of cremation there have been many suggestions and family quandaries as to what to do with the ash remains post cremation.

Many products are now on offer to families such as cremation jewellery, scattering, placing in an existing grave if available, splitting them up in keepsakes and sharing between family members.

Without clear direction, many end up in urns on top of mantlepieces or kept in the back of presses or even under the bed, waiting to be found and passed on to somebody in the future. How many end up scattered leaving family wondering where to visit if the site has become a shopping

carpark. Or the piece of glass that no longer is fashionable gets left in a drawer to be forgotten.

How many families would like to have their cremated remains placed in their own garden, allowing others to see, visit and remember them. Allowing the ash remains to be relocated if that becomes a need due to moving.

The Urn Tower Memorial Vault gives families the option to keep their loved ones’ cremated remains in a variety of places that they may have a special connection with, such as home. It can be extended if needed to accommodate additional family or even companion urns. Being an above ground memorial it can move with you if that need ever arises or can be passed on to the next generation keeping the family legacy alive.

Urn Towers Ltd are also working with several councils around Ireland to install our Memorial Vaults in cemeteries to provide ash interment options to families at sites where these facilities do not exist. We also provide an end to end service – purchase/ engraving/placement/ registration – at some of these sites.

For some families where existing graves may no longer be able to accommodate new interments the urn tower memorial vault can be placed on the grave in certain circumstances.

We would be delighted to discuss options with undertakers who are interested in offering families a new option as part of their service to families who have chosen cremation.

I can be contacted on my personal email stephen. power@urntowers.com or mobile +353 (0)872232572 More information is available on our website www. urntowers.com

Obit - Supporting you through difficult times

We realise that this is a particularly stressful time for Funeral Directors across Ireland and the UK. Since the COVID-19 outbreak we have completely reprioritised our workload so as to keep Obit running as smoothly as possible and respond quicker to our customer’s requests for support.

One such request that we fast-tracked recently was the ability to leave condolence messages directly on the published death notices. Given the difficult circumstances and travel restrictions, this is often the only way people can sympathise with the deceased’s family. Obit customers could already connect their own websites with Obit and publish a live listing of their notices but this allows them to provide an additional service to their clients. All Condolence messages are reviewable and can be easily collated into a Condolence Book for the family.

Reviewing our traffic logs we also noticed that a lot more of our traffic was coming from mobiles and tablets. It’s clear people are working from home or on the go much more than before. Obit has been designed with mobile in mind and we are constantly updating it to ensure it works great no matter what device you are using.

We offer a 30-day free trial to new customers to help you see if Obit is right for you. So if you are interested in becoming part of the Obit family please get in touch, we’d love to have you on board.