Book by ryan kelleher

Self-Driven Changes

Ryan Kelleher

Self-Driven Changes

Ryan Kelleher

Acknowledgments S

pecial thanks to Erik Mollerstedt for giving me the opportunity to see more of the innovative technology at Waymo and for letting me ride in a self-driving car.

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Dedication T

his book is dedicated to my mother who was very supportive throught the process of creating this book.

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Contents

23 Bio

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Looking Forward

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Preface

Introduction

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Changing Car Culture

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Current State of Self-Driving Cars

Preface A

s I was exploring ideas for my Documentary project, I noticed a different car in the midst of traffic: a Waymo self-driving vehicle. The topic of self-driving cars really intrigued me because the press around them was buzzing. After talking to my parents about choosing this as a topic, I realized that one of our family friends works at Waymo. The combination of an interesting topic and having access to a person working in the field of self-driving cars led me to choose this topic to explore in more detail. I not only wanted to focus on the technology associated with self-driving cars but also on the societal changes that will come with self-driving cars becoming more prevalent.

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Introduction A

famous philosophical dilemma that originated in 1967 is now resurfacing in current discussions about the ethics of self-driving cars. This problem is called the Trolley Problem. In this problem, a train is speeding down the rails. On its current path it will kill five people. However, you have the option to switch the rails and divert the train to another track which will cause only one person to be killed. In this case, a person has to make the decision about what outcome is best. This problem relates to self-driving cars because there are going to be situations where the selfdriving car may have to choose between inflicting harm on passengers in the car or on pedestrians crossing the street. But in this case, if the car is programmed by artificial intelligence, the “choice” the car makes will be based on the algorithms determined by the engineers who programmed the car. “Engineers are confronting questions like these as they build self-driving technology. When a crash is inevitable and a human is at the wheel, the result is a spontaneous reaction — a decision the driver has to make in a split second. But in a car controlled by algorithms, it is a choice predetermined by a programmer. This is one of the biggest issues facing the companies working to develop fully autonomous cars, and for now, there’s no concrete solution in sight.”

Moral Machine is a site which gathers data on the “human perspective on moral decisions made by machine intelligence, such as self-driving cars”. It depicts hundreds of detailed scenarios and forces users to make a personal decision according to which outcome they think is best. The moral problems associated with driverless cars are not the only things that are changing. Current generations have a different outlook on cars than previous generations and it is fueling a wave of change towards car culture.

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Changing Car Culture C

ars were invented just 130 years ago, and in that short amount of time they have become a major necessity in countries around the world, especially in America. Not only did they change American culture, they became a symbol for freedom. To own a car in the 1900’s was to have the freedom to go where you wanted, because the car had revolutionized transportation. Starting in the 1930’s, nearly every family had a car and used it for multiple purposes - anywhere from getting to work to going on family vacations. With the rise of personal automobiles came gas stations, mechanics, nicer roads, street lights, and most importantly, the highway. The highway allowed families to travel the distance to places that could not be reached before.

Along with freedom of the road came the love for the car.

American muscle cars were the sparks to the flame in the sense that they pushed cars to be faster and passion for speed turned into the love of a car owner for his car. Paul Kelleher, a car enthusiast, talks about the reason that he is so passionate about cars when he says, “The feeling of speed is incredible. The engine power, the noise, the smells. The challenge of keeping a car running. Learning complicated things about cars. It’s interesting.” Mr. Kelleher, owner of a 1967 Oldsmobile Vista Cruiser, is describing a feeling of passion that has been increasingly fading in the younger generations. That’s not to say that no teenager is passionate about cars, but there certainly are a lot less of them.

This is demonstrated in the statistics of how many people are getting

their driver’s license. The Chicago Tribune states that nearly 30 years ago half of all 16-year-olds had their driver’s license and in 2010 the number dropped to roughly 28%. The dramatic drop in younger drivers getting their driver’s license may be attributed to the popularity and accessibility of ridesharing apps, such as Uber and Lift. Kai Moos, a junior at Los Altos High School, may be in the minority when he says, “But also for me the thrill of driving is the best thing about driving. You know, being in control of the car, it’s a good feeling. I personally like driving.”

While there are some kids who are still have the passion for cars, they are becoming few and far between. Mr. Kelleher has lived in an age where the love of cars was shared throughout the family, not just with the older generation. He comments on this shift of attitude towards cars since he was a kid: “Well I think a lot of it used to be more car worship and car envy and now the car envy is for these trick up selfdriving cars and electric cars and things like that” (Kelleher). His words also illuminate another point. Not only are teens’ attitudes towards cars and driving changing, adults’ attitudes are changing too. The big push for hybrid cars, Teslas, and self-driving cars is fueled by adults who want a more environmentally friendly car rather than, say, an American muscle car or gas guzzling SUV. This big push for a different type of car has allowed self-driving cars to emerge so quickly.

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Current State of Self-Driving Cars C

urrently, self-driving technology has its limits, but that’s not to say that it isn’t impressive. The technology that Waymo is using in their sensors is a combination of LIDAR and RADAR. LIDAR stands for LIght Detection And Ranging, which sends out light pulses and maps the distance between objects. RADAR stands for RAdio Detection And Ranging, and it uses electromagnetic pulses to determine the range, angle, or velocity of objects. The self-driving car uses a combination of both LIDAR and RADAR to map its surroundings and to be able to react to what is going on around the car. I had the opportunity to ride in a self-driving car with Erik Mollerstedt, Technical Program Manager at Waymo, and it was quite impressive to see what the car sees while you are driving. This technology is promising, but it has some problems of its own. Currently, LIDAR systems that companies are using on their cars is extremely expensive. The LA Times states that a LIDAR system costs around $75,000 per car. This is a major setback to mass producing self-driving cars because it is just so expensive. However, recently companies have been saying that they are producing a new LIDAR system that could be sold for as little as $12,000 per car. This dramatic price reduction has likely come about because of the increased competition between companies making the LIDAR systems, and to get them to be cheaper than their competitors.

In addition to the cost of the sensor technology, there are limitations on where they can work because of the weather. The LIDAR

sensors use light waves, which means that they can be disrupted by different types of weather, as explained here “Snow, rain, fog and other types of weather make driving difficult for humans, and it’s no different for driverless cars, which stay in their lanes by using cameras that track lines on the pavement. But they can’t do that if the road has a coating of snow. Falling snow or rain can also make it difficult for laser sensors to identify obstacles. A large puddle caused by heavy rain may look like blacktop to an autonomous car’s sensors.” This shows that there is still work to do with respect to how autonomous the cars actually can be based on existing technology. However, there are different levels of autonomy in self-driving cars, each with its own level of sophistication.

There are five levels of autonomy for self-driving cars which describe the system and not the car itself. These levels, as described by Techrepublic. com are as follows. Level zero is where the human controls everything in the car. Level one is when almost everything is done by the driver, but certain functions like steering and acceleration could be controlled by the car itself. Level two involves the system managing both steering and controlling the speed of a vehicle. Level three still makes drivers necessary for intervention if something were to go wrong, but the system can control the safety-critical functions of the vehicle, such as lane centering, breaking, accelerating, and making other important decisions. Level four is what most people think of when thinking of self-driving cars, because it is full autonomy. However, level four is

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only limited to its operational design domain and does not cover every scenario. The final level, level five, is full autonomy in every situation and is expected to respond equal to that of a human driver regardless of road conditions or other factors. It is important to know the different levels of autonomy because the concept of self-driving cars is very broad. Thus it is important to understand what level of autonomy is being used when talking about self driving cars.

In addition to current self-driving technology having its limits, in order for self driving cars to become more mainstream, the infrastructure needs to be in place to support them. With current technology, roads need to be extensively mapped before they can be driven on by selfdriving cars. This is one of the reasons why cars won’t completely take over driving. For example, suburban roads are generally constant, which means that they can be mapped relatively easily, and so switching to only self-driving cars in a suburban area would be simple. However, being that city roads are constantly changing and are usually full of construction it would be difficult, although still possible to continuously map the roads.

The technical problems aren’t the only challenge self-driving companies are going to have to face. Every accident causes a major setback for self-driving car companies, mainly from bad press attention.

Recently an Uber self-driving car hit and killed someone and nearly all the news articles criticized self-driving cars. To deal with the bad press, Uber has pulled back on their driverless cars on the road. It is important to note that Uber has had a more aggressive approach to self-driving cars which may have played a role in the accident. Companies in the self-driving car industry should learn from Uber’s mistake and match the tech that they have with what they are actually capable of doing. Companies should also be aware of how to counteract negative press by showing off what selfdriving cars can do and how they do it, because what they are doing is impressive. This is crucial for the self-driving car industry because it is so new. New laws are just starting to arrive concerning self-driving cars and it is much easier to get a law that would benefit autonomous cars if they weren’t fighting public opinion.

Even with all of these limitations and challenges, investment in self-driving cars is on the rise. In addition to Uber and Waymo, Volvo, Tesla, BMW and Volkswagen are also working on self-driving cars. Apple may even get into the mix. “Apple’s CEO Tim Cook has confirmed it is developing a self-driving car system. Although Cook didn’t discuss what aspect of driver less car technology it would be working on, whether it be 16

creating supporting software, licensing or building a car itself.” “We’re focusing on autonomous systems and clearly one purpose of autonomous systems is self-driving cars, [but] there are others,” Cook told Bloomberg.

“It’s probably one of the most difficult AI projects to work on.” Selfdriving cars are the new fad and every company is jumping at the chance to get in the market. It is certain that there is going to be no outrunning self-driving cars in the future. One if not all of these companies is going to get the self-driving car right and it will drastically change the way our society works.

“It’s probably one of the most difficult AI projects to work on.”

- Tim Cook (Apple CEO)

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Looking Forward I

n the future, we could see some major societal changes with the increasing popularity and use of driverless technology.

If self-driving cars are implemented as many people believe that they will be, parking structures may become obsolete.

Cars wouldn’t need to stay where the people are. This would lead to a huge amount of space being opened up for parks or more space for schools, and in general more space for everything.

Also, one of the benefits of having self-driving cars is to reduce the crash rate of vehicles. Cyberlaw.stanford.edu states that “Some ninety percent of motor vehicle crashes are caused at least in part by human error”. Self-driving cars would reduce the crash rates caused by human error to zero.

Reducing accidents is the reason stated by most companies when asked why they are creating self-driving cars. Selfdriving cars would be very effective at reducing the rates of accidents and could save many lives.

Reducing accident rates won’t be the only thing that self-driving cars could do. Many senior citizens eventually face the decision to give up their license or stop driving.

This is a very difficult decision because it means the loss of

freedom. My 93 year old grandma is no longer able to drive and definitely feels that loss of freedom. Self-driving cars provide the opportunity for seniors as well as other people who may not be able to get a driver’s license, to be able to go where they please whenever they want. Waymo has already shown the public the opportunity that could come of self-driving cars when they had a driverless car drive a blind person. In a video about the event, the blind passenger Steven Mahan enthusiastically stated: “It was a really big deal going where I need to go in a vehicle without having to make arrangements with other drivers or a family member or some form of public transportation it just let me be a whole person again.” Although some people may be ecstatic about the arrival of the self-driving cars, many other are still sceptical about having self-driving cars on the market.

In order for self-driving cars to become more mainstream, the companies are going to have to change the public’s perception of self-driving cars. Many people love to drive, and convincing them to give up driving will be a whole task on its own. Erik Mollersedt has a solution, “I think the best way to deal with that is to offer them a ride

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in a self-driving car” and later he states “We’ve also published a safety policy and made that open publicly because a lot of the work is not just developing technology but … working with government agencies to make sure ... you get the policies right.” This will be key in the development of a positive image of self-driving cars and could turn many people into advocates of self-driving cars. Transparency will also play an important role because it will allow the public to realize the benefits with self-driving cars and may become more lenient towards the change.

Another societal change will be around car purchases.

Rather than buying and owning your own self-driving car, it would more look like a big taxi service, where you call a self driving car when you need one. As with all cars, the self-driving cars would still need to be updated constantly to fit in with our ever changing world, as well as being serviced for checkups. In order to do this, the car mechanics of the future will need to understand the systems that are being used for the car.

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“I think the best way to deal with [critics of self-driving cars] is to offer them a ride in a self-driving car.�

- Erik Mollersedt (Waymo Project Manager)

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Works Cited Boudette, Neal E. “5 Things That Give Self-Driving Cars Headaches.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 4 June 2016, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/06/06/automobiles/autonomous-cars-problems.html.

“Moral Machine.” Moral Machine, moralmachine.mit.edu/.

Davich, Jerry. “Davich: Today’s Teens Less Interested in Driving, but Why?”Chicagotribune.com, 18 Aug. 2015, www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/post-tribune/opinion/ct-ptb-davich-young-drivers-st-0819-20150818-story.html.

Mitchell, Russ. “Lidar Costs $75,000 per Car. If the Price Doesn’t Drop to a Few Hundred Bucks, Driverless Cars Won’t Go Mass Market.” Los Angeles Times, Los Angeles Times, 11 Dec. 2017, www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-ouster-lidar-20171211-htmlstory.html.

Reese, Hope. “Updated: Autonomous Driving Levels 0 to 5: Understanding the Differences.” TechRepublic, www.techrepublic. com/article/autonomous-driving-levels-0-to-5-understanding-the-differences/.

Wakabayashi, Daisuke. “Uber’s Self-Driving Cars Were Struggling Before Arizona Crash.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 23 Mar. 2018, www.nytimes.com/2018/03/23/technology/uber-self-driving-cars-arizona.html.

Mercer, Christina, and Tom Macaulay. “Companies Working On Driverless Cars You Should Know About.” Techworld, 8 Mar.

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2018, www.techworld.com/picture-gallery/data/-companies-working-on-driverless-cars-3641537/.

“Human Error as a Cause of Vehicle Crashes.” Center for Internet and Society, cyberlaw.stanford.edu/blog/2013/12/humanerror-cause-vehicle-crashes.

US Department of Commerce, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “What Is LIDAR.” NOAA’s National Ocean Service, 1 Oct. 2012, oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/lidar.html.

“Meet the Blind Man Who Convinced Google Its Self-Driving Car Is Finally Ready | WIRED.” Meet the Blind Man Who Convinced Google Its Self-Driving Car Is Finally Ready | WIRED, WIRED, www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_d3MCkIvg8.

Mollersedt, Erik. Personal Interview. 20 March, 2018 Moos, Kai. Personal Interview. 26 March, 2018 Kelleher, Paul. Personal Interview. 28 March, 2018

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Ryan Kelleher is a junior at Los Altos High School and is 17 years old. In his free time he enjoys playing sports, hanging with friends, and playing videogames. Ryan plays on the Palo Alto Club Soccer team and is a goalie. He is looking forward to his last year in high school.

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Self-Driven Changes

Ryan Kelleher