Edmondson Park Market Outlook June 2019

MARKET OUTLOOK EDMONDSON PARK Edmondson Park is at the heart of the fast-growing South West Priority Growth Area of Sydney encompassing an emerging apartment market, new transport infrastructure, employment growth and improving connectivity.

02 Key Residential Demand Drivers 03 South West Sydney Overview 04 Ed.Square 06 Location and Accessibility 08 Infrastructure 10 Population 11 Demographics 12 Employment and Education 13 Rental Market Overview 14 Housing Market Overview Prepared exclusively for

Frasers Property Australia June 2019

KEY RESIDENTIAL DEMAND DRIVERS R INF

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Urbis has investigated the trends that will deliver sustained and confident growth now and into the future.

This involves recognising the key fundamentals that investors should seek to secure returns, as well as, identifying regions that will be the most desirable to live, work and play.

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Long term value growth will be the most important motivator for buyers moving forward, and in today’s new market demand, those regions accommodating a unique formula will benefit the most in the long run.

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To help identify these locations, Urbis has concluded that the most desirable locations will be those which deliver ‘P.I.E’. Population, Infrastructure and Employment growth.

POPULATION GROWTH

INFRASTRUCTURE

EMPLOYMENT

Regions with strong population growth improve the potential demand for new residential development through access to a growing market and future household formation.

Locations supported by infrastructure and services improve the value derived from locational driven amenity.

Proximity and access to employment nodes is essential for strong residential growth.

It supports a future population and opens a local labour market for residential developments as workers seek housing within easy transit to their place of work.

The NSW Department of Planning and Environment projects that the population of Greater Sydney the increase by around 1.6% per annum over the next decade, which could drive demand for around 35,200 additional dwellings per year. Based on housing approval data, it is estimated that around 60% of these dwellings would be apartments, equating to over 21,000 apartments per year.

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The key residential demand drivers have been identified by Urbis as comprising proximity and access to employment, public transport, services, recreation and social infrastructure.

Market Outlook Edmondson Park

Access to good public transport and road infrastructure are important to potential purchasers and renters. Particularly, linkages to the CBD, airport and major employment centres.

Future infrastructure projects can revitalise areas, improve connectivity and linkages, create new jobs and reshape the existing community.

The draft Greater Sydney Region Plan (2056) identifies a need for an additional 817,000 jobs by 2056, with a strong focus on economic corridors, health and education precincts and strategic centres. Residential development in greenfield areas is set to benefit from these new employment nodes, noting Western Sydney Airport’s role as a key economic centre.

SOUTH WEST SYDNEY OVERVIEW The South West Sydney region has been identified by the NSW Government as a critical component of Sydney’s future growth. The Greater Sydney Regional Plan outlines the 40-year vision for Greater Sydney as a metropolis of three cities (Sydney CBD, Parramatta and Western Sydney Aerotropolis).

The key principle underlying the strategy is the delivery of a 30-minute city to provide better access to jobs, schools and health care within 30 minutes of people’s homes.

In this way, the vision seeks to rebalance growth and opportunities across Sydney.

Major infrastructure projects such as the Western Sydney Airport and the South West Rail Link will attract new residents and employment opportunities to the region. The construction of the Western Sydney Airport will provide global connections and generate significant employment and is anticipated to be a major catalyst for business investment within the region. Around 20,000 new jobs are projected for the precinct by 2031, within five years of the Western Sydney Airport’s anticipated opening in 2026.

To promote economic and population growth the NSW Government has also identified several priority precincts in South West Sydney comprising: §§ South West Growth Area §§ Western Sydney Airport Growth Area §§ Western Sydney Employment Area §§ Leppington Town Centre.

The NSW Department of Planning and Environment projects the population of South West Sydney to increase strongly by around 2.9% per annum by 2033, This could drive demand for around 5,200 additional dwellings per year. This projected rate of population growth is well above the average annual projected growth rate for Greater Sydney of 1.5%.

Western Sydney University is one of the fastest growing universities in Australia with over 55,000 students. It is listed in the world’s top 100 universities under the age of 50 in the Times Higher Education rankings, and ranked in the top 2% of universities in the world. South West Sydney residents are well placed to access the Campbelltown and Liverpool campuses.

The recently completed South West Rail Link provides train connection to existing stations at Leppington and Edmondson Park and will provide access to new residents in the growing South West Sydney region. The proposed extension to the South West Rail Link will provide future connection to the Western Sydney Airport via Leppington.

SOUTH WEST SYDNEY REGION

Western Sydney Aerotropolis (Badgerys Creek)

Population (No.)

South West Sydney Population South West Sydney Annual Growth Rate Greater Sydney Annual Growth Rate

Liverpool CBD

Edmondson Park

Sydney CBD

800,000 655,192 700,000 559,130 485,602 600,000 414,563 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 2013 2018 2023 2028

741,416

2033

3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0%

Average Annual Growth (%)

POPULATION GROWTH South West Sydney

Parramatta

Source: BTS; Urbis.

Note: South West Sydney includes the Liverpool, Campbelltown and Camden LGAs.

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ED.SQUARE Frasers Property Australia are committed to transforming the 24-hectare site adjacent to Edmondson Park train station into an ideal place and vibrant community of Ed.Square.

Ed.Square is located in the heart of Edmondson Park, and is set to become a diverse urban neighbourhood of 1,884 new dwellings, community buildings, restaurants, cafĂŠs, shopping, entertainment, playgrounds and over six hectares of open space.

RESIDENTIAL

The plan proposes diversity of housing types including 992 apartments and 892 medium density terraces and townhouses. Ed.Square will combine a mixed-use town centre precinct with new residential neighbourhoods to cater to a diverse population demographic.

AMENITY

Ed.Square will create a vibrant community centre with key amenity within walking distance of homes. Retail at Ed.Square will include a fresh food market place, cinema, gym, tavern, a medical centre and community centre as well as over 120 specialty stores.

The Town Square and Eat Street aims to offer an experiential atmosphere of various culinary choices, live music, and a children’s water play area.

Compared to similar new communities being developed in South West Sydney, Ed.Square will offer a higher concentration of walkable amenity from retail, healthcare, recreation, education and entertainment.

It is also the only estate and town centre to be located adjacent to a train station.

AMENITY WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE Ed.Square

Oran Park

Denham Gledswood Court Hills

Train Station

Supermarket Dining Precinct Parks Medical Centre Cinema Tavern Gym Child Care School Artist's impression, indicative only.

Source: Frasers Property Australia.

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Market Outlook Edmondson Park

Source: Urbis.

Note: Based on amenity upon completion of community.

The Edmondson Park Town Centre, known as Ed.Square, is set to revitalise the surrounding region.

SOUTH WEST SYDNEY REGION

Denham Court

Ed.Square

Gledswood Hills

Oran Park

Source: Urbis.

Eat Street at Ed.Square, Edmondson Park

Artist's impression, indicative only.

Source: Frasers Property Australia.

Prepared exclusively for Frasers Property Australia

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LOCATION AND ACCESSIBILITY SHOPPING

Ed.Square is set to bring a new level of fresh food convenience for local residents with a supermarket and fresh food marketplace. Stage 1 is under construction and is anticipated to open in the second half of 2020 and will comprise a full-line Coles supermarket, Liquorland and 90 specialty shops. Edmondson Park currently boasts an Aldi supermarket with the Crossroads Homemaker Centre and Costco Warehouse also providing bulky goods retail options. Other nearby retail centres include Casula Mall, Westfield Liverpool and Macarthur Square Shopping Centre.

Future Western Sydney Airport, Badgerys Creek

EDUCATION

Residents are well placed to access local primary and high schools with the St Francis School located in Edmondson Park and nearby high schools including John Edmondson High School and Hurlstone Agricultural School.

Frasers Property are exploring opportunities to develop a high school within the Ed.Square Town Centre. Western Sydney University campuses at Campbelltown and Liverpool and the University of Wollongong campus at Liverpool provide multiple tertiary education opportunities.

Edmondson Regional Park

MEDICAL

Ed.Square will contain a medical centre to service local residents. The Liverpool Hospital and Sydney Southwest Private Hospital are located in nearby and provide comprehensive medical services.

PARKS AND RECREATION

There are several parks and reserves within and surrounding Edmondson Park such as Edmondson Regional Park and Kemps Creek Nature Reserve with over six hectares of open space to be included in Ed.Square. Other recreational uses surrounding Edmondson Park include the Casula Powerhouse Arts Centre and Michael Clarke Recreation Centre.

PUBLIC TRANSPORT

The Edmondson Park train station connects residents to Liverpool, Parramatta and the Sydney CBD. The future South West Rail Link plans to extend residents’ transport connections to the north and south as well as connecting to the new Western Sydney Airport.

CONNECTIVITY

Residents are also well placed to travel by car on the nearby M5 and M7 motorways.

These transport linkages significantly enhance Edmondson Park’s appeal for prospective Ed.Square residents.

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Market Outlook Edmondson Park

Artist impression, indicative only. Image is conceptual only and may change at any time without notice. The development is subject to planning approval.

Source: Urbis

Edmondson Park is located 8km south west of Liverpool CBD and 34 km south west of Sydney CBD.

Parramatta: 20km Michael Clarke Recreation Centre John Edmondson High School

Carnes Hill Marketplace William Carey Christian School

Dalmeny Public School

St Catherine of Siena Catholic Primary School Aldi Edmondson Park

St Francis Catholic College

Liverpool: 8km

University of Wollongong, Liverpool & Western Sydney University, Liverpool: 7 km Edmondson Park Bus Interchange Edmondson Park Train Station

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Westfield Liverpool, Liverpool Hospital, Sydney South West Private Hospital: 7 km Costco Warehouse and Crossroads Homemaker Centre: 2km

Edmondson Regional Park

CAMPBELLTOWN ROAD

TAFE NSW Macquarie Fields: 3.5km Macquarie Links Golf Club– 2km

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INFRASTRUCTURE INFRASTRUCTURE

01 WESTERN SYDNEY AIRPORT Expected Completion: 2026 – $5.3 Billion (initial funding)

The development of Sydney’s second major airport to service the Western Sydney region. The new airport will be a major catalyst for economic growth in South Western Sydney by connecting the region globally and opening up freight and export opportunities. The airport is expected to deliver almost 28,000 new jobs by 2031 and encourage new business investment in the surrounding area. It is projected that the airport will service 10 million passengers annually from 2026 allowing local residents to travel globally.

03 CAMPBELLTOWN HOSPITAL UPGRADE Expected Completion: 2021 – $632 million

The Campbelltown Hospital has been granted over $632 million to upgrade its emergency department, mental health facilities and expand paediatric services to service the region.

Source: NSW Government

Source: Australian Government

02 SOUTH WEST RAIL LINK AND WEST RAIL EXTENSION Expected Completion: TBA – $3.5 Billion

04 LIVERPOOL CIVIC PLACE Expected Completion: 2023 – $300 million

The North South Rail Link comprises the construction of a railway line between St Marys and Macarthur via the new Western Sydney Airport. Residents will be able to take advantage of this new connection to the future airport and the additional train services expected from such a large extension. The current South West Rail Line is proposed to extend and intersect with the new line at Bringelly.

The Liverpool Civic Place development will provide new amenities for locals including a new library building, commercial offices for council and educational facilities for the University of Wollongong.

Source: Transport for NSW

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Market Outlook Edmondson Park

Source: Liverpool City Council and Cordell Connect

In addition to Edmondson Park’s Town Centre $200 million transformation, the region is well located to take advantage of over $8 billion in infrastructure investments in Sydney’s South West.

05 BRINGELLY ROAD UPGRADE Completed: End 2018 – $509 million

06 CAMPBELLTOWN ROAD UPGRADE Expected Completion: 2021 - $38 million

Road widening of Bringelly Road to six lanes between Leppington and Bringelly, to improve access to the proposed Western Sydney Airport at Badgerys’s Creek, Leppington Train Station and the M5 and M7 motorways.

Upgrade of a 5.4 km stretch of Campbelltown Road from Casula to Denham Court past the Ed.Square Town Centre. The plans include widening of the road from two lanes to four and installation of six sets of traffic lights.

Source: Cordell Connect and Roads & Maritime Services

Source: Cordell Connect and Roads & Maritime Services

07 EDMONDSON PARK SCHOOL Expected Completion: 2021 – $8.3 million (initial stages)

08 ST FRANCIS CATHOLIC COLLEGE Completed: End 2018 – $9.0 million (initial stages)

Proposed construction of a new school to accommodate 900 students from kindergarten to year 12. Stage 1 comprises the construction of a school administration building, student amenities, two classroom blocks for 225 students, outdoor play area and landscaping.

A new Catholic school that will include capacity for approximately 1,700 students from K-12 once fully completed. The first stage included the construction of a primary school for 250 students, which includes 12 classrooms within a single storey building.

Source: Cordell Connect

Source: Cordell Connect

Prepared exclusively for Frasers Property Australia

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Significant population growth and affluent young families within the Edmondson Park study area are key demand drivers for dwellings.

POPULATION

Population forecasts developed by BTS project the Edmondson Park study area population to grow by approximately 18,000 new residents between 2018 and 2033, equating to growth in new residents of 2.4% per annum. This projected rate of population growth is well above the average annual projected growth rate for Greater Sydney of 1.5%.

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Market Outlook Edmondson Park

Edmondson Park Study Area Edmondson Park Study Area Annual Growth Rate Greater Sydney Annual Growth Rate 70,000 56,774

60,000 50,000 40,000

35,126

42,014

4.0% 60,033 3.5% 3.0%

49,620

2.5% 2.0%

30,000

1.5%

20,000

1.0%

10,000

0.5% 0.0%

2013 Source: ABS, BTS; Urbis.

2018

2023

2028

2033

Average Annual Growth (%)

These six suburbs are subject to similar geographical and economic factors. The study area has been created to effectively assess the area’s population growth, demographic characteristics and property market which is likely to shape the suburb of Edmondson Park.

POPULATION GROWTH Edmondson Park Study Area

Population (No.)

For the purpose of this profile, the Edmondson Park study area has been defined to include the suburbs of Edmondson Park, Prestons, Horningsea Park, Carnes Hill, Hoxton Park and West Hoxton.

DEMOGRAPHICS The average household income of the study area has been consistently higher than the Greater Sydney average over the 10-year period. The average household income has increased by 3.7% per annum from 2006 to 2016, illustrating the increasing affluence within the Edmondson Park study area. In 2016, the average household income in the Edmondson Park study area was $113,614, which was 6.3% above the Greater Sydney average.

WHO LIVES IN THE EDMONDSON PARK STUDY AREA?

The proportion of residents employed in white collar jobs has grown from 65% to 67% from 2011 to 2016, with the proportion of residents who are educated with a bachelor degree or higher having increased from 16% in 2011 to 19% in 2016. This reflects a growing educated and affluent workforce in the region.

The average age of residents in the Edmondson Park study area is 30, which is significantly lower than the Greater Sydney average. This indicates great potential in the study area, where the majority of workers have yet to enter the prime working age and premium salaried age period.

Edmondson Park Study Area (2011)

Edmondson Park Study Area (2016)

Greater Sydney (2016)

Average Age of Residents

30

31

37

Employed in White Collar Jobs

65%

67%

75%

Bachelor Degree or Higher

16%

19%

24%

Born Overseas

43%

44%

39%

Family Households

91%

92%

74%

Couple Families with Children

66%

68%

50%

Average Household Size

3.6

3.7

2.8

Average Household Income

$97,591

$113,614 $106,502

Household Income Above $130,000

25%

36%

32%

Source: ABS Census 2011 and 2016; Urbis.

Average Household Income ($)

AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD INCOME 2006 to 2016 $140,000

Edmondson Park Study Area Metropolitan Sydney

$120,000

$113,614 $97,591 $94,428

$100,000 $80,000

$78,849

$106,502

$72,730

$60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0

2006 Source: ABS Census 2016; Urbis.

2011

2016

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EMPLOYMENT AND EDUCATION

Forecast employment growth within Edmondson Park and surrounding centres has the potential to drive residential demand from new workers.

EMPLOYMENT

EDUCATION

The construction of the Western Sydney Airport will generate significant employment as the new airport will become a catalyst for business investment into the region. Approximately 20,000 new jobs are projected to be located within the precinct by 2031, within five years of the Western Sydney Airport’s opening in 2026.

Primary schools within the local area include Bardia Public School and St Catherine of Siena Catholic Primary School. Frasers Property are also exploring opportunities to develop a high school within the Ed.Square Town Centre. The area also affords residents access to Hurlstone Agricultural Selective High School and Casula High School, as well as reputable private schools such as William Carey Christian School which caters to both primary and secondary students.

The key employment precincts of Campbelltown CBD and Liverpool CBD are projected to accommodate strong employment growth across health, education and professional services.

Overall, a boost in approximately 28,050 new jobs across the Liverpool CBD, Campbelltown CBD and Western Sydney Airport are likely to drive growth in demand for residential apartments in and around these centres.

Residents are also well placed to access several universities within Western Sydney. Western Sydney University is placed in the top 2% of the Times Higher Education World University Rankings. The WSU Liverpool and Campbelltown campuses are the most accessible for residents of Edmondson Park. Train services from Edmondson Park to the Liverpool CBD and Sydney CBD provide residents with rapid access to key tertiary institutions within Inner City locations such as the University of Sydney and University of Technology Sydney.

The new University of Wollongong South Western Sydney campus is located in the Liverpool CBD and offers programs in Arts, Business, IT and Health Management.

Edmondson Park is surrounded by multiple TAFE campuses. The closest campus to Edmondson Park is at Macquarie Fields, which specialises in construction, building trades and engineering.

NEW JOBS BY 2031 (2016-2031) Growth within the Surrounding Precincts

Liverpool CBD Western Sydney Airport

5,250 New jobs

19,800 New jobs

TOTAL NEW JOBS

28,050 New jobs Prepared by Urbis; Source Bureau of Transport and Statistics 2016.

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Market Outlook Edmondson Park

Campbelltown CBD

3,000 New jobs

RENTAL MARKET OVERVIEW

The Edmondson Park Study Area is a growing rental market within the South West Sydney Region.

The Edmondson Park Study Area has a growing proportion of renting households which accounted for 16% of dwellings in 2011 and grew to 18% in 2016 (ABS Census). This reflects a growing rental market within the study area.

According to the NSW Department of Housing, median rent for three-bedroom houses in the 2170 postcode was $470 per week in the December 2018 quarter, growing at a rate of 3.9% per annum over the past 10 years. It is noted that the 2170 postcode includes the suburbs of Prestons, Lurnea, Casula, Liverpool, Moorebank, Hammondville, Chipping Norton, Warwick Farm and Mount Pritchard, which is used as a proxy for Edmondson Park.

3.8% GREATER SYDNEY

Source: APM PriceFinder; Urbis.

PROPORTION OF RENTING HOUSEHOLDS Edmondson Park Study Area

2006

15% 2011

16%

According to APM PriceFinder, units in the Liverpool LGA achieved an indicative gross yield of 4.1% for the 12 months to December 2018. This is higher than the Greater Sydney average of 3.8% over the same period.

MEDIAN WEEKLY RENT FOR 3 BEDROOM HOUSES December 2008–2018

Weekly Median Rent ($)

2016

18% Source: ABS Census; Urbis.

TWO BEDROOM UNIT RENTAL GROWTH December 2008 – December 2018

2 Bedroom Unit 3 Bedroom House 3 Bedroom House (Liverpool LGA) (2170 Postcode) (Liverpool LGA) $450

4.1%

LIVERPOOL LGA

Due to no apartments currently located in the Study Area, the growth in apartment rents has been assessed for the wider Liverpool LGA. The median rent for a two-bedroom unit in the Liverpool LGA was $410 per week in December 2018, growing at a higher rate than three-bedroom houses at a rate of 5.1% per annum. This was well above the Greater Sydney average of 3.2% over the last decade. This reflects the potential for higher rental growth in apartments in the Study Area.

$500

UNIT RENTAL YIELD

$470

5.1% 3.2%

$470

$400 $350

$410

$300 $250 $200

Dec-08 May-09 Oct-09 Mar-10 Aug-10 Jan-11 Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Nov-16 Apr-17 Sep-17 Feb-18 Jul-18 Dec-18

$150

Source: NSW Department of Housing Rent Data; Urbis.

Liverpool LGA

Greater Sydney

Source: NSW Department of Housing; Urbis.

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HOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW The Edmondson Park study area has historically been a low density residential market characterised by house and land releases. In the 2016 Census, separate houses accounted for 96% of dwellings in the Edmondson Park study area compared to 58% of households in Greater Sydney.

DWELLING STRUCTURE Edmondson Park Study Area and Sydney, 2016

14%

���

MEDIAN PRICE GROWTH PER ANNUM - HOUSES December 2018

8.9%

Separate houses Semi-detached Flat, unit or apartment

28%

Although there is no current apartment provision within the Edmondson Park study area, there is an increasing acceptance of higher density housing with new apartments planned within Ed.Square. This reflects the strong housing price growth within Sydney and the relatively affordability provided by apartments in the area.

58%

7.5%

7.8%

7.0%

Greater Sydney

��

5-year

4%

96%

Edmondson Park Study Area Source: ABS Census; Urbis.

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Market Outlook Edmondson Park

10-year Liverpool LGA Source: APM PriceFinder; Urbis.

Metro Sydney

Edmondson Park is transforming from a low density residential market of houses to a more diverse market to include an emerging apartment sector.

Given the limited availability of apartment sales in the region, we have assessed the study area’s housing market to measure historic price growth trends.

According to APM PriceFinder, the median sales prices for houses in the study area grew at a healthy 6.9% per annum from December 2013 to December 2018 based on an average of around 520 settled transactions per annum.

To note, this data does not include off the plan sales that have not yet settled, indicating that the housing market is likely achieving the high volumes and growth of recent years.

The median price for houses in the Liverpool LGA has reflected stronger growth than that for Greater Sydney over the past decade. These figures show potential for the study area to reflect high median price growth as emerging apartment development occurs.

EDMONDSON PARK STUDY AREA HOUSE SALES December 2008 – December 2018 Median Sale Price

No. of Transactions

$900,000 $800,000

$735,000

$700,000

140 120 100

$600,000 $500,000 $400,000

80 60

$300,000 $200,000

40 20 DEC 18

JUN 18

DEC 17

JUN 17

DEC 16

JUN 16

DEC 15

JUN 15

DEC 14

JUN 14

DEC 13

JUN 13

DEC 12

JUN 12

DEC 11

JUN 11

DEC 10

JUN 10

DEC 09

$100,000 JUN 09

0

Median Sale Price

180 160

DEC 08

Number of Transactions

200

$0

Period (Quarterly)

Note: 2017 and 2018 data may not include off the plan sales that have not yet settled.

Source: APM PriceFinder; Urbis.

Data compiled by Cordell Connect indicates that there are an estimated 2,500 residential apartments and townhouses proposed to be completed in the Edmondson Park study area over the next five years.

The majority of these are anticipated to be completed in 2023, where most of the proposed supply is still in the development application stage.

FUTURE DEVELOPMENT IN STUDY AREA

YEAR

APARTMENTS/ TOWNHOUSES

HOUSES

2019

13

80

2020

36

307

2021

286

238

2022

600

0

2023

1,581

0

TOTAL

2,516

625

Source: Cordell Connect; Urbis.

Prepared exclusively for Frasers Property Australia

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P0009528/B

This publication is prepared on the instruction of Frasers Property Australia and is not suitable for use other than by the party to whom it is addressed. As the publication involves projections and assumptions it can be affected by a number of unforeseen variables. The forecasts and assumptions are a prediction and whilst Urbis has made every effort to ensure that the forecasts and assumptions are based on reasonable information, they may be affected by assumptions that do not necessarily eventuate or by known, or unknown, risks and uncertainties. It should be noted that past performance is not necessarily a reliable indication of future performance. The information in the publication does not represent financial advice and should not be regarded as such. It has been prepared without taking into account your financial situation or investment objectives. You should consider the appropriateness of the information in regards to your current financial situation or needs. Urbis accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. The information is subject to change without notice and Urbis is under no obligation to update the information or correct any assumptions which may change over time. This study has been prepared for the sole use of Frasers Property Australia and is not to be relied upon by any third party without specific approval from Urbis. This publication is subject to copyright. Except as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of it may, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrievals system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquires should be addressed to the publishers.