MARKET OUTLOOK HAMILTON
Hamilton is a desirable river fronting suburb surrounded by public spaces, parks and walkways. Hamilton boasts connectivity to major employment nodes while maintaining a vibrant urban community.
02
Brisbane Overview
04
Amenity
05
Infrastructure
06
Employment
07
Residential Insights
Prepared exclusively for
Frasers Property August 2020
BRISBANE OVERVIEW BRISBANE OVERVIEW
ECONOMY The Queensland economy has continued to be one of the fastest growing in the country, with gross state product (GSP) at 2.5 per cent per annum over 2017-2019. Queensland is second only to Victoria which is achieving a GSP of 3.5 per cent per annum and on par with New South Wales. Brisbane is developing into a diverse and active global city, with an economy valued at $171 billion in 2019. Brisbane’s economy is predicted to grow to be worth over $217 billion by 2031, a 27 per cent increase.
EMPLOYMENT Over 25 years, 430,000 new jobs are expected to be created in Brisbane to achieve a total workforce of approximately 1.25 million workers by 2041. This equates to 17,200 new jobs each year, or a growth rate of 1.7 per cent per annum. The largest employment industry drivers over 25 years to 2041 will include Health Care & Social Assistance and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services sectors which are expected to grow by 2.0 and 2.8 per cent per annum respectively. Employment growth has seen commercial office space extending beyond the boundaries of the Brisbane CBD in all directions, leading to a number of thriving employment nodes with state-of-the-art commercial buildings. Strong infrastructure spending outside the CBD is attracting business to areas such as the Australia TradeCoast (ATC) (includes Brisbane Airport and Port of Brisbane) and is creating a catalyst for the region and its workforces which form a major driver for the local residential market.
AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH IN GROSS STATE PRODUCT (GSP) 2017-2019
NSW
VIC
QLD
2.5%
3.5%
2.5%
AUSTRALIA
2.4%
Prepared by Urbis; Source: ABS
EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS
Brisbane LGA
Current Jobs 2016
Forecast Jobs 2021
Additional Jobs by 2041
817,000
1,247,600
430,600
Largest Growth Sectors Health Care & Social Assistance
112,780
183,400
70,620
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
87,900
176,980
89,080
Prepared by Urbis; Source: QGSO
BRISBANE POPULATION PROJECTIONS
1,551,149
As Australia’s ‘new world city’, Brisbane has emerged as an influential leader in the Asia Pacific and a highly desirable place to do business. Brisbane is cementing its position within the top 30 per cent of the world’s fastest growing cities. Surrounded by natural assets, infrastructure spending and employment opportunities, Brisbane offers a high quality of work-life balance for residents.
2
Market Outlook Hamilton
Total Residents by 2041
New Residents per year
Prepared by Urbis; Source: QGSO 2018 edition
282
The resident population across Brisbane is forecast to increase by over 14,600 new residents each year between 2016 and 2041, equating to growth of 1.1 per cent per annum or approximately 280 additional residents each week. The most significant growth in population is forecast to occur between 2016 and 2026, with a projected increase of around 15,000 new residents per annum. The suburb of Hamilton is forecast to grow by 1.3 per cent per annum over the 25-year period.
14,677
POPULATION
New Residents per week
INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
INFRASTRUCTURE Brisbane is set to benefit from an extensive infrastructure spending program. The Queensland Government has budgeted infrastructure commitments totalling $49.5 billion over four years to June 2023. For the financial year ending 2020, Brisbane is expected to see significant expenditure including $5.6 billion for transport, $2.2 billion on energy and $1.5 billion towards education and training. Brisbane will also benefit from significant funding into the Cross River Rail project.
MIGRATION Historically, Queensland’s population growth was driven by a positive net migration and steady natural increases. Over the past four years, net interstate migration into Queensland has become a strong driver of population growth. Since June 2017, Queensland has become the leading interstate migration destination in Australia. During September 2019 quarter, net interstate migration accounted for 27 per cent of population growth for Queensland. A significant increase over the 20 per cent experienced three years earlier in September 2016.
VIC
QLD
WA
Sep 2009 Mar 2010 Sep 2010 Mar 2011 Sep 2011 Mar 2012 Sep 2012 Mar 2013 Sep 2013 Mar 2014 Sep 2014 Mar 2015 Sep 2015 Mar 2016 Sep 2016 Mar 2017 Sep 2017 Mar 2018 Sep 2018 Mar 2019 Sep 2019
NSW
8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 -2,000 -4,000 -6,000 -8,000
Number of Residents (annual average)
INTERSTATE MIGRATION
2019-2023 Total Infrastructure
$49.5 billion
2019-2020 Total Infrastructure
$12.9billion
2019-2020 Queensland Government Budget Infrastructure Spending Road & Transport
$5.6 billion
Energy
$2.2 billion
Education & Training
$1.5 billion
Health
$686 million
Justice & Public Safety
$538 million
Arts, Culture & Recreation
$530 million
Social Housing
$482 million
Water
$400 million
Digital
$128 million
Prepared by Urbis; Source: Queensland Budget Regional Action Plan
Prepared by Urbis; Source: ABS
Prepared exclusively for Frasers Property
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AMENITY
Brisbane CBD (6km)
Mt Coot-tha
Newstead
09 10 12 11
03
06
13
02
05
01
04
(9.5km)
07
(3km)
14
Brisbane Airport (5 kms) M1 Gateway Motorway Gold Coast (77km) Sunshine Coast (114km)
08
LEGEND CityCat/Ferry Terminal Cruise Ship Terminal
4
Market Outlook Hamilton
01. Northshore Riverside Park 02. Northshore Urban Development Area 03. Portside Wharf 04. Royal Queensland Golf Club
05. BTP Northshore 06. Kingsford Smith Drive 07. Port of Brisbane 08. Australia TradeCoast 09. Eagle Farm Racecourse
10. Doomben Racecourse 11. Racecourse Road shopping precinct 12. Hamilton Hotel 13. Eat Street Markets 14. Skygate Amenity (DFO, Woolworths & specialty)
INFRASTRUCTURE INFRASTRUCTURE Connected by a seamless integration of public spaces, streets, parks and walkways, Hamilton boasts a 304-hectare waterfront development of significance not seen since the redevelopment of South Bank following Expo 88. On a national level, the Northshore Renewal Project is over 100 hectares larger than the Docklands development in Melbourne and more than 280 hectares larger than the Barangaroo project in Sydney. Strategically located within 6km of the Brisbane CBD and boasting direct access to CityCat ferry terminals, regional road infrastructure, rail and bus lines, Hamilton offers high connectivity to the Brisbane CBD and other major employment nodes in Brisbane whilst maintaining a vibrant, engaging and memorable urban community that celebrates its waterfront location. Hamilton has strong transport infrastructure in the form of the Inner City Bypass, Clem7 Tunnel and Gateway Motorway allowing residents to move around the city and beyond. The upgrade to Kingsford Smith Drive will reduce travel times further and enhance Hamilton’s connectivity. CROSS RIVER RAIL $6.4 billion (Construction)
Construction is underway on Brisbane’s Cross River Rail project to connect the northern and southern rail networks and improve the reliability and accessibility to the Brisbane CBD. The project includes 10.2km rail link from Dutton Park to Bowen Hills, 5.9km tunnel under the Brisbane River and CBD and five new stations. QUEENS WHARF $3.6 billion (Construction)
Queens Wharf is set to be a new world-class integrated resort development featuring five new premium hotel brands including Brisbane’s first 6-star hotel, 50 new restaurants, cafés and bars, retail, entertainment, theatre, convention uses, casino and new pedestrian bridge to South Bank. BRISBANE METRO $1.24 billion (Early Works)
Brisbane Metro will be a key part of Brisbane's greater transport network connecting the city to the suburbs. The turn-up-and-go Brisbane Metro will run every three minutes during peak periods and 24 hours on weekends, operating along dedicated busways from Eight Mile Plains to Roma Street, and Royal Brisbane and Womens Hospital, Herston to University of Queensland, St Lucia.
BRISBANE AIRPORT PARALLEL RUNWAY $1.3 billion (Recently Completed)
Recently completed the new parallel runway delivers the best runway system in Australia with similar capacity to Hong Kong and Singapore airports. Flights are forecast to increase to 360,000 by 2035 and provide a regional economic benefit of around $5 billion per annum. Increased activity at the Brisbane Airport is expected to have flow on benefits to the region, including greater utilisation of the Brisbane Airport as a mixed use precinct. The airport master plan includes two hotels, medium density office space, a third train station and mixed industry and business zones. HERSTON QUARTER REDEVELOPMENT $1.1 billion (Construction)
Herston Quarter is a five-hectare site currently being redeveloped to provide a 132-bed public specialist centre, new private hospital, residential and student accommodation, aged care and retirement living, research and commercial space, child care, retail and restaurants. BRISBANE INTERNATIONAL CRUISE SHIP TERMINAL $177 million (Construction)
The Brisbane International Cruise Ship Terminal, located at the mouth of the Brisbane River will allow for deep water cruise ships to dock in Brisbane, boosting tourism and employment within the region. Due to open in time for the 2020/2021 cruise season the project includes a state-of-the-art terminal and will bring over 760,000 visitors annually and contribute $1.3 billion in net expenditure into the Brisbane economy. HOWARD SMITH WHARVES $100 million+ (Completed)
Howard Smith Wharves provides a vibrant waterside destination incorporating 2.7 hectares of public open space, with seven restaurants and bars, boutique five-star hotel and potential for a new ferry terminal. AUSTRALIA TRADECOAST
The Australia TradeCoast (ATC) incorporates the Port of Brisbane, Brisbane Airport and surrounding industrial areas. ATC has specialised sectors including aviation and aerospace, food and innovative manufacturing, shipping and marine, and transport and logistics. 8,000 hectares of the ATC is dedicated to employable businesses and continues to attract significant infrastructure investment in hotels, offices, mixed industry and business parks. Prepared exclusively for Frasers Property
5
EMPLOYMENT Over 25 years to 2041, the Brisbane LGA is forecast to gain an additional 430,000 new jobs, achieving a stable growth rate of 1.7 per cent per annum. Hamilton is strategically positioned to benefit from key surrounding employment nodes that are expected to contribute significantly to overall growth, including the Brisbane CBD, Australia TradeCoast (ATC) which includes the Brisbane Airport and Port of Brisbane and the emerging northern fringe commercial precincts made up of the suburbs of Fortitude Valley, Bowen Hills and Newstead. Hamilton is expected to greatly benefit from the strong projected performance of the ATC, with around 18,700 additional jobs to be created over 25 years to 2041, equating to a growth rate of 2 per cent per annum. Employment growth in the ATC will be primarily driven by two major infrastructure projects including the Brisbane Airport parallel runway and the Brisbane International Cruise Ship Terminal. Two major projects in the immediate Hamilton area will contribute significantly to employment - the Brisbane International Cruise Ship terminal (3,750 jobs) and the Brisbane Airport runway extension (7,800 jobs) which will contribute an additional $5 billion in annual economic benefit to the region.
EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS
OVER 132,000 NEW JOBS BY 2041 Current Jobs 2016
Forecast to 2041
Additional Jobs
13,500
3,800
234,300
85,900
37,000
11,800
32,400
12,000
47,500
18,700
Hamilton & Surrounds
9,700 Brisbane CBD
148,400 Fortitude Valley
25,200 Newstead - Bowen Hills
20,400 Australia TradeCoast
28,800 Prepared by Urbis; Source: Urbis
AUSTRALIA TRADECOAST HAMILTON & SURROUNDS
BOWEN HILLS
FORTITUDE VALLEY BRISBANE CBD
6
Market Outlook Hamilton
RESIDENTIAL INSIGHTS RESIDENTIAL ANALYSIS
UNIT SALES CYCLE
On the market rental data (records new and near-new apartment product) indicates that two-bedroom apartments are attracting a premium in the Hamilton Catchment of $60 or 13 per cent per week over existing apartments. There is limited supply of new and near-new three-bedroom apartments being advertised for rent in the Hamilton Catchment, indicating potential demand for three-bedroom apartments. Surrounding key employment drivers are expected to help strengthen the rental market. RENTAL GROWTH Over 5 years Hamilton
Inner North
Brisbane City
Two Bed
2.3%
1.6%
1.4%
Three Bed
3.5%
2.4%
1.5%
Prepared by Urbis; Source: RTA Q1 2020 * Includes the suburbs Hamilton and Ascot.
Median unit price
2000 JUN 2001 JUN 2002 JUN 2003 JUN 2004 JUN 2005 JUN 2006 JUN 2007 JUN 2008 JUN 2009 JUN 2010 JUN 2011 JUN 2012 JUN 2013 JUN 2014 JUN 2015 JUN 2016 JUN 2017 JUN 2018 JUN 2019 JUN 2020 JUN*
Number of transactions
$300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0
Period (half year)
HOUSE SALES CYCLE Hamilton Catchment median house price $1,300,000 $1,800,000
$1,600,000 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $705 ,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $0
2000 JUN 2001 JUN 2002 JUN 2003 JUN 2004 JUN 2005 JUN 2006 JUN 2007 JUN 2008 JUN 2009 JUN 2010 JUN 2011 JUN 2012 JUN 2013 JUN 2014 JUN 2015 JUN 2016 JUN 2017 JUN 2018 JUN 2019 JUN 2020 JUN*
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Brisbane median house price
Median house price
Hamilton Catchment number of house sales
Period (half year)
Prepared by Urbis; Source: APM PriceFinder Hamilton catchment consists of Hamilton and Ascot *Preliminary figures
MEDIAN PRICE GROWTH 1 year
3 years
10 years
20 years
Hamilton Catchment
2.7%
4.7%
3.6%
7.2%
Brisbane
1.6%
2.8%
3.0%
7.5%
12.8%
3.2%
1.8%
6.4%
1.1%
-0.3%
1.3%
5.1%
Hamilton Catchment Brisbane
Prepared by Urbis; Source: APM PriceFinder figures at December 2019
NEW APARTMENT MARKET New apartment sales 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Weighted average sale price $1,000,000
$860,714 $900,000
$800,000 $700,000 $600,000 63 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0
$535,038
Weighted average sale price
The Residential Tenancies Authority (RTA) has registered growth in median weekly rents for two and three-bedroom units of 2.3 and 3.5 per cent per annum respectively over the five years ending March 2020 across the Hamilton Catchment. The Hamilton Catchment has outperformed the Brisbane City growth rates for both apartment types over the five-year period.
$500,000
$446,000 $400,000
Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020
RENTAL ANALYSIS
Hamilton Catchment median unit price
Prepared by Urbis; Source: APM PriceFinder Hamilton catchment consists of Hamilton and Ascot *Preliminary figures
Number of house sales
When compared to the general apartment market (all settled sales), the new apartment market achieves significant price premiums. As the chart adjacent highlights, the weighted average sale price of new apartments within the Northshore Precinct was $860,714 based on 63 sales during the March 2020 quarter, well above the general market.
Brisbane median unit price
$530,000 $600,000
Median house price growth pa
NEW APARTMENT ANALYSIS
300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Median unit price growth pa
Based on preliminary 2020 figures, the Hamilton Catchment recorded a median house price of $1.3 million - well above the wider Brisbane LGA which recorded $705,000 during the same period. The Hamilton Catchment has recorded strong long-term price growth of 7.2 per cent per annum over 20 years to December 2019.
Hamilton Catchment number of unit sales
Number of new apartment sales
Median unit price growth across the Hamilton Catchment has been consistently higher than the wider Brisbane area. A significant 12.8 per cent price growth was recorded during the 12 months to December 2019, driven by the transactions of premium product. Extremely solid long-term growth of 6.4 per cent per annum has been recorded over 20 years, and is above the wider Brisbane area which recorded 5.1 per cent per annum. Based on preliminary figures for 2020, the median unit price in the Hamilton Catchment was recorded at $530,000 and is $84,000 higher than the wider Brisbane LGA figure of $446,000.
Period (quarter)
Prepared by Urbis; Source: Urbis Brisbane Apartment Essentials Q1 2020 Northshore consists of: Hamilton, Ascot, Albion Prepared exclusively for Frasers Property
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P0024225/B
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