Judgment

Judgment

Question # 1 How will you simplify a judgment problem?

Break down a judgment problem into a series of smaller tasks.

https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/4128559604 page 313.

Evaluate each task independently of the others.

https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/4128559604 page 313.

Question # 2 To what extent do you put focus on present and short term?

Research shows that long term predictions about specific events are impossible. The world is a messy place, where minor

events can have large consequences.

https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/4128559604 page 123.

Question # 3 To what extent do you use checklists to help make judgments?

Checklists help reduce noise and improve decisions.

https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/4128559604

Question # 4

To what extent do you use AI to help you make judgments

Algorithms can outperform human beings on whatever combination of criteria we select.

https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/4128559604 page 286.

Question # 5 To what extent do you get independent opinions from people with different views?

Diversity of skills in a group of professionals is an asset because different professionals will cover different aspects of the problem and complement one another.

https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/4128559604 Page 178.

Register views of people in a group independently. Why? Because when people learn about the estimates of other people, groups do worse.

https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/4128559604 Page 90.

Mini-delphi method  Round 1: each participant in a meeting is asked to produce a silent estimate about whether something will happen and then to explain and justify it.  Round 2: Each participant is asked to make a new estimate in response to the estimates and explanations of others.

https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/4128559604 Page 223.

Question # 6 To what extent do you calculate the average of judgments?

Make the judgment again, after some time has passed.

Then compare the two judgments.

https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/4128559604 Page 78.

Average all estimates you have.

https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/4128559604 Pages 78 and 222.

Question # 7 To what extent do you use nudges to help people make better judgments?

Automatic enrollment has proved to be effective in increasing participation rates.

Example: Automatic enrollment in free school meal plans.

https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/4128559604 Page 204.

In supermarkets, put healthy foods in prominent places.

https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/4128559604 Page 204.