How do you make decisions?

How do you make decisions?

Question # 1 What are arguments for and against the decision?

Arguments for the decision

Arguments against the decision

Question # 2 To which 3 possibilities can you reduce the decision?

Example: Picking a place to stay via airbnb.com

Step # 1 Go to airbnb.com and look for places where you want to stay.

Step # 2 Use filters to define needs you have.

Step # 3 Reduce the number of places to 3 by elimating those you do not want.

Adapted from http://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/08/what-a-bad-decision-looks-like-in-the-brain/497402/

Question # 3 What decision will you make when you think ahead and look back?

The 5-5-5 method What will be the impact of your decision  in 5 minutes?  in 5 months?  in 5 years?

Inspired by: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/03/opinion/the-choice-explosion.html http://thenextweb.com/insider/2016/08/01/989517/

The 90th birthday method 1. Please imagine that you are now 90 years old.

2. Ask yourself how you would like to look back on your life on your 90th birthday? Would you regret not having made the decision?

Inspired by https://youtu.be/jwG_qR6XmDQ

The end of project method 1. Please imagine that we are now at the end of the project.

2. Also, please imagine that we made some wrong decisions on the way.

3. Please write down which of the decisions, we made, were wrong.

4. Please also write down why we took these wrong decisions.

Thank you. http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/strategy/strategic_decisions_when_can_you_trust_your_gut http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/are-you-ready-to-decide

Get pregnant method Try to live for a week as if the decision had already been made.

Observe what this imagination does to you.

Inspired by https://www.sanitas.com/de/magazin/momente-teilen/entscheidungen/entscheidungstipps.html

Question # 4 What values do you have?

5 questions to discover values you have: Question # 1: What was your last moment of true happiness?

Why was this for you a moment of true happiness?

Question # 2: Whom do you admire the most?

Why do you admire this person?

Question # 3: When were you at your best?

Why were you at your best then?

Question # 4: Which 1 word says the most about you?

Why does this word say the most about you? Please explain.

Question # 5: If you could try any work for a week, what would it be?

Why do you want to try out the work you suggested?

Value hierarchy Please write down the 2 values mentioned most frequently.

Values

The # 1 mentioned value: The # 2 mentioned value:

Question # 5 What will you do know that is important and not urgent?

Not urgent Examples:  Learning.  Doing physical exercise.

Important  Eating healthy food.  Communicating with friends.  Planning what you want to do when.

Not important

Urgent

Not urgent

Important

Not important

Urgent

Examples:  Life - death emergencies.  Crisis communication.  Deadlines of important tasks.  Learning to do something that needs to be fixed now.

Not urgent Important

Examples:  Watching entertainment.

Not  Eating unhealthy food. important  Phone call about topics of little relevance.

Urgent

Not urgent

Urgent

Important

Not important

Examples:  Ineffective meetings.  Phone call or e-mail with irrelevant demands.

Sources http://www.businessinsider.com/dwight-eisenhower-nailed-a-major-insight-about-productivity-2014-4 https://exist.io/blog/eisenhower/ https://medium.com/@artofmanliness/decide-like-ike-the-eisenhower-decision-matrix-2959919e5cb6#.w2mir92f5 http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newHTE_91.htm http://thenextweb.com/insider/2016/08/01/989517/ http://theviewinside.me/work-on-the-important-things-that-are-not-urgent/

Question # 6 Are you using data to make your decision?

“I don't think smoking is that bad, because my uncle Arthur smoked 20 cigarettes every day, and he lived till he was 92.”

This story of Arthur is highly unrepresentative of smokers as a whole.

http://voices.yahoo.com/the-availability-error-trap-6892686.html?cat=3

Lifetime risk of dying in a car accident: 1:84.

Lifetime risk of dying in a plane crash: Between 1:5,000 and 1:20,000.

http://io9.com/5974468/the-most-common-cognitive-biases-that-prevent-you-from-being-rational http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/10/31/how-scared-should-we-be/ http://www.livescience.com/3780-odds-dying.html Lifetime risk is calculated by dividing population by the number of deaths per year, divided by the life expectancy in years of a person.

Question # 7

What are your healthy habits?

If you have a habit of not eating sugar from Monday to Friday and that works well for you, keep doing it.

Then you can save your decision-making energy for other things.

Adapted from https://hbr.org/2015/11/3-timeless-rules-for-making-tough-decisions

Question # 8 How well do you understand the problem?

How well do you understand the problem – including the reasons for the problem?

https://hbr.org/2016/11/how-to-make-better-decisions-with-less-data

Question # 9 When will you set a deadline?

Pick a decision you have been postponing.

Give yourself 3 minutes. Then make the decision.

https://hbr.org/2015/11/3-timeless-rules-for-making-tough-decisions

Question # 10 What would be the consequence of living with the decision for a longer time?

To stop eating 2 chocolate bars instead of 1 on a Wednesday, try forcing yourself to live with the consequences of eating 2 chocolate bars every day for the entire week.

http://io9.com/current-moment-bias-is-my-worst-one-im-a-terrible-proc-264008358

Although you know you should not eat chocolate bar # 2, why do you eat it just because you bought 2 for the price of 1?

http://www.lifehack.org/articles/communication/how-the-sunk-cost-fallacy-makes-you-act-stupid.html

Although you know you want to STOP voting for a certain person or certain party, why do you keep voting for this person / party?

http://io9.com/5974468/the-most-common-cognitive-biases-that-prevent-you-from-being-rational

Question # 11 When do you make decisions?

Avoid making important decisions late in the day.

Why? Over the course of a day, we become increasingly tired.

Thereby, the quality of our decisions is reduced.

https://hbr.org/2016/02/dont-make-important-decisions-late-in-the-day

Question # 12 What do you do to avoid that your intuition makes wrong decisions?

To use your intuition well, 1. make sure there is a certain degree of stability that only changes very little.

2. get feedback.

http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategic-decisions-when-can-you-trust-your-gut

Your conscience shouts ”here’s what you should you”, while your intuition whispers, ”here’s what you could do.” Listen to that voice that tells you what you could do. Nothing will define your character more than that.

Steven Spielberg. https://youtu.be/TYtoDunfu00 Minute 6.

Gut brain Personality.

Heart brain Values, feelings, and relations to others.

Head brain Thinking.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/when-deciding-gets-hard-getting-beyond-basics-deb-loftus-ph-d-

System 1  Remembers skills we used earlier to solve problems.  Quickly and confidently makes intuitive judgments and choices.

System 2  In charge of doubting and unbelieving.  Endorses or rejects emotions created by system 1.  Articulates judgments.

https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/1965478241

Question # 13 How would you feel if you were among the people who were hit hardest by the decision?

The golden rule

Do unto others as you would have them do unto you.

https://hbr.org/2016/08/timeless-advice-for-making-a-hard-choice

Question # 14 Will you rather divide or decide?

When you want to share a cake fairly with another person, ask her if she wants to 1. divide the cake or 2. decide which piece she wants.

The ”divide or decide” method works because the person dividing the cake will make sure that the cake is divided equally.

http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/organization/our-insights/leadership-and-behavior-mastering-the-mechanics-of-reason-and-emotion

Question # 15 How often do you use the ”if-then” rule?

Example of the “if-then” rule: If the person interrupts you 2 times in a conversation, then you say, “Please let me finish talking.”

https://hbr.org/2015/11/3-timeless-rules-for-making-tough-decisions

Question # 16 How do you avoid being too over-optimistic?

To avoid being too over-optimistic, 1. get feedback from others.

2. reward realism.

http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/distortions-and-deceptions-in-strategic-decisions

Question # 17 How do you avoid being too loss averse?

To overcome loss aversion, 1. look at every option / test as one of many possibilities that help move forward.

2. use different criteria for financial analysis of initiatives you take.

http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/distortions-and-deceptions-in-strategic-decisions

Question # 18 How often do you use best practice?

Research shows that managers, who made decisions using best practices, achieved their expected results 90% of the time, and 40% of them exceeded expectations.

However, only 2% regularly apply best practices when making decisions.

https://hbr.org/2016/03/a-checklist-for-making-faster-better-decisions

Question # 19 How often do you listen to people you do not agree with?

When you need to make a decision, how often do you listen to people who have a different opinion than you have?

http://io9.com/5974468/the-most-common-cognitive-biases-that-prevent-you-from-being-rational http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/are-you-ready-to-decide

We may have a negative emotional reaction on meeting people who seem different from us. This “fear of the other” emotion evolved for a good purpose: In a tribal world, other tribes posed a threat.

Today, however, this “fear of the other” emotion can get in the way of interactions. It introduces immediate hostility, when there should not be hostility.

http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/organization/our-insights/leadership-and-behavior-mastering-the-mechanics-of-reason-and-emotion

Question # 20 How often do you listen to people you do not know?

Human ethnocentrism, the tendency to view one's group as very important and better than other groups, creates intergroup bias that fuels prejudice, xenophobia, and intergroup violence.

http://www.pnas.org/content/108/4/1262

Before making a decision, to what extent do you listen / observe / talk to a wide variety of sources?

https://hbr.org/2019/09/why-new-leaders-should-make-decisions-slowly

Question # 21 When do you decide against a group?

In an experiment, participants were asked to identify which of 3 lines on a card was the same length as a line on another card.

When asked individually, participants chose the correct line. However, when people were asked in the presence of paid actors who intentionally selected the wrong line, about 75% conformed to the group at least once.

In other words, they chose an incorrect answer in order to fit in.

https://hbr.org/cover-story/2016/10/let-your-workers-rebel

When people hear other people make estimates, for example about how many coins there are in a jar, people influence each other.

However, when people independently make estimates, the accuracy of the judgment rises - on average - with the number of estimates.

http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/strategy/strategic_decisions_when_can_you_trust_your_gut

Question # 22 To what extent do you focus on needs of people who really love you?

Mega artists sell a few products to many people. Artists with 1,000 true fans sell many products to a few people.

Instead of trying to be loved by everyone, focus on

satisfying needs of those who truly love you.

http://thenextweb.com/insider/2016/08/01/989517/

Question # 23 What is better in a crisis: That one person makes decisions or that many people make decisions?

Leader’s choice is usually the fastest approach, so it is the most appropriate in a crisis.

https://hbr.org/2015/03/a-checklist-for-planning-your-next-big-meeting

Question # 24 Will you move when people say nothing?

Send your plan with this message: “Unless I hear differently by 11 AM CET on Thursday, I will go ahead with this.”

http://www.destination-innovation.com/try-this-phrase-to-speed-action-unless-i-hear-differently/ http://unlessiheardifferently.com/

In a meeting, a person summarizes a dialogue and concludes. When other meeting participants show consent by saying nothing and/or nodding, the couple / team / group has made a decision.

http://fac-vid.squarespace.com/bedre-moeder/Ravn%20-%20Bedre%20mder%20gennem%20facilitering.pdf p. 9.

Consent based decision making can be made when team members, who are present, do not object.

http://www.reinventingorganizationswiki.com/Decision_Making

Question # 25 When do you ask people to vote?

A majority vote allows every voice to be heard and is generally viewed as fair.

https://hbr.org/2015/03/a-checklist-for-planning-your-next-big-meeting

Be aware that it may be difficult for some people to declare their opinion publicly.

https://hbr.org/2015/03/a-checklist-for-planning-your-next-big-meeting

Decision making exercise in a group

Group exercise

Each person, who wants to, asks everyone for help to make a decision he or she want to make.

After a person has shared what he / she needs help with to make his / her decision, all other participants use their knowledge, resources, and connections to help the person. http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/organization/givers_take_all_the_hidden_dimension_of_corporate_culture