Mid Year 2016 Market Report

&

VERMONT NEW HAMPSHIRE

2016 MID YEAR MARKET REPORT

FOUR SEASONS SOTHEBY’S INTERNATIONAL REALTY

TABLE OF CONTENTS

4 6

Market Review

26

Central Vermont Rutland County Washington County Lamoille County

Southern New Hampshire Hillsborough County Rockingham County

30

10

Champlain Valley Chittenden County Addison County

Southern Vermont Bennington County Windham County Windsor County Rutland County

34

Upper Valley Grafton County Orange County Windsor County Sullivan County Luxury Market $600K+ $1 Million+

14

Lake Sunapee Region Merrimack County Sullivan County

18

Lake Winnipesaukee Region Belknap County Carroll County

22

Northeast Kingdom Caledonia County Orleans County

38

MLS#4428414 KATHY O’BRIEN

MLS#4437226 DAVID HALLIGAN

KNOWLEDGE IS POWER We are proud to share with you our Vermont and New Hampshire 2016 Mid Year Market Report. Our focus is to ensure that our clients (whether selling or purchasing real estate) have comprehensive information in order to make informed decisions. Ultimately, your success is ours.

I

n this report, you will find year over year market trends comparing this year to date with the same time period last year in order to help you identify where the market is headed. Please don’t hesitate to contact one of our associates for more detailed information on the town (or towns) you intend to sell or purchase in this year.

We hope you find this, our Mid Year Market Report of 2016, helpful as you evaluate your real estate options. At Four Seasons Sotheby’s International Realty, we are committed to providing the highest level of service and expertise to buyers and sellers alike in all price categories. It will be our privilege to serve you.

MLS#4503751 KATHY O’BRIEN

Staige Davis, CEO

MARKET REVIEW

N

ationally, the residential real estate market experienced a strong first half in 2016, with home sales high and home prices continuing to rise.

There are a number of key trends that will continue to drive the housing market for the remainder of 2016: Growing rental rates and moderate home price growth should mean more people looking to buy in 2016. Mortgage rates will rise, which should also help boost the number of buyers. Inventory is expected to remain very tight.

Demand for for-sale housing will grow and will continue to be dominated by older millennials, aged 25 to 34. This demographic has the potential to claim a third of home sales in 2016 and represent 2 million home purchases.

Two other demographics will also be dominant forces on the buy side but will also be a key part of providing the necessary inventory on the sell side.

Gen-X is in prime earning years and thus is also experiencing improvements in their economic circumstances, which include more relocations and seeking better neighborhoods for their families. Older boomers are approaching — or already in — retirement and seeking to downsize or lock in a lower cost of living. Together, these two generations will provide much of the suburban inventory that millennials desire to start their own families.

4 FourSeasonsSIR.com

MLS#4484665 STEVE PATRIQUIN

NEW HAMPSHIRE

VERMONT

New Hampshire posted strong numbers through the first half of 2016 and the second half could be poised for even stronger growth. Single family homes were up 17.75% percent in 2016 year to date, while condo sales rose by 17.07%. The median sales price for single-family homes also rose 1.45% over the previous year to $280,258.29.

Additionally, the state’s economy is poised for continued growth in 2016, driven largely by the housing market and lower energy prices, according to the state’s leading economists.

Sales were up 9.96% in the first half of 2016.

However, pricing remained relatively flat and remains a concern with most experts projecting flat to modest increases again in 2016. Pricing your property appropriately given the market dynamics is more important than ever to get it sold in a timely manner. Vermont’s underlying demographics, with no population growth in the prime home buying age groups, suggest that Vermont’s housing market will remain with flat to modest growth. There certainly won’t be any increase in sales or prices due to people moving to Vermont in the short term.

Supply will also improve as a result of additional growth in new construction, and particularly in more single-family construction. The growth will be in more affordable price points, which will help bring down the average new home prices and the average size of new homes, which have grown dramatically so far in the recovery as builders principally focused on the move-up, luxury, and active adult segments.

Mortgage rates should also begin their longanticipated ascent as the Federal Reserve attempts to “thread the needle” on influencing rates up without negatively impacting economic growth.

The increases in mortgage rates will likely be lower than the increases in short-term interest rates created by Fed policy, as global weakness and a strong dollar limit more pronounced movement in long bonds. Mortgage rates will also be volatile, moving up and down by day and week, but the key difference will be a more pronounced longer trend towards higher rates.

The increase in mortgage rates should be a net positive to the market as fence-sitting sellers and buyers begin to understand that rates are moving higher and decide to jump into the market while they remain at such historically low levels.

MLS#4493566 CHERYL KERR

The final key trend is that rents will rise more rapidly than prices, adding to the already burdensome level of rents that exist in more than 85 percent of the markets in the country. In the short term, this reinforces the consumer’s decision to buy, but higher rents also start to negatively impact the pipeline for future purchases by keeping renting households from saving towards a down payment.

THE LUXURY MARKETS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND VERMONT The luxury market picked up slightly in Q2 as the weather got warmer and waterfront activities commenced.

The luxury market continues to be primarily a buyer’s market due to a relatively large supply of inventory, resulting in many homes staying on the market for a prolonged period of time before finding a buyer. Pricing appropriately given the market dynamics is critical, and many sellers have had to lower their price expectations as buyers look to negotiate the best price possible.

Four Seasons Sotheby’s International Realty continues to be the number one ranked firm in in the luxury market, with the most total sales in units and dollar volume combined within Vermont and New Hampshire in mid year 2016 for the $600K+ and $1M+ price points.

*Source: NH and VT Association of Realtors **Source: NEREN 1/1/16 - 6/30/16

MLS#4447115 LORI SHIPULSKI

FourSeasonsSIR.com 5

MICRO CENTRAL VERMONT REPORT Number of Sales

77 68

80

68

100

96

120

0

6 FourSeasonsSIR.com

29

37 15

10 6

15 10

13 8

14 16

28

30 19 20

20

8 6

YTD 2 015

40

25 27

YTD 2 016

39

60

Average Days on Market

99

154

210 237

210 226

221 237

229 166

210

224

111

100

85

YTD 2 015

57

150

117

YTD 2 016

132

200

158

250

195

300

264 251

350

252

325

360

400

50 0

FourSeasonsSIR.com 7

MICRO CENTRAL VERMONT REPORT Average Sale Price 600,000.00 500,000.00 400,000.00 300,000.00 YTD 2 016 YTD 2 015

200,000.00 100,000.00 0.00

8 FourSeasonsSIR.com

MLS#4251225 SUSAN W. BARRON

Average sales prices are on the rise.

+

Homes are selling closer to their list price.

Homes are taking longer to sell, but on average are selling for higher.

MLS#4423599 LAURIE MECIER-BROCHU

$499,740.26 Stowe Average Sale Price Q2 ytd 2016

+41.17% Rutland City Number of Sales Q2 ytd 2016

FourSeasonsSIR.com 9

10 FourSeasonsSIR.com

Colches ter

Charlotte

Winoos ki

Willis ton

Shelburne

Richmond

Hinesburg

Vergennes

New Haven

Shoreham

Bridport

Waltham

Addison

Middlebury

Ferris burgh

YTD 2 015 Es s ex

YTD 2 016

25 12 27 34

37

20 22 26 20

5 1 5 1 7 1 3 3 12 9 11 14

2 2

55

55

37 50 28 18

81

175 163

143 153 156 169

200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Burlington

So. Burlington

MICRO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REPORT Number of Sales

Richmond

Hinesburg

Es s ex

Colches ter

Charlotte

Winoos ki

Burlington

Addison

Middlebury

Ferris burgh

Willis ton

Vergennes

New Haven

Shoreham

Bridport

Waltham

YTD 2 015 Shelburne

YTD 2 016

8

88

260

246 243

237 251

196 177 136

143

120 156

129 127 105 173 89 88 65

95 92

64

58

30

116 92 72

62 77 56 71 61 83

334

335

400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 So. Burlington

Average Days On Market

FourSeasonsSIR.com 11

0

12 FourSeasonsSIR.com

Vergennes

New Haven

Shoreham

Bridport

Waltham

Addison

Middlebury

Ferris burgh

Willis ton

Shelburne

Richmond

Hinesburg

Es s ex

Colches ter

Charlotte

Winoos ki

YTD 2 015

Burlington

YTD 2 016

So. Burlington

MICRO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REPORT Average Sale Price

600000

500000

400000

300000

200000

100000

+ 108.33% Ferrisburgh Number of Sales Q2 ytd 2016

100.87% Charlotte Sold/List Price % Q2 ytd 2016 MLS#4439030 MARY PAT PALMER

Consumers are willing to pay more for their home if it’s in the right location.

Listings are spending less time on the market (depending on price point).

Number of sales are up by large margins in Charlotte, Shelburne, Williston and Ferrisburgh.

MLS#4497658 NANCY WARREN

MICRO LAKE SUNAPEE REPORT Number of Sales 58

0

14 FourSeasonsSIR.com

31

36

5 7

26 12 13

20 21

24 20

20 5 7

10

15

20

23

YTD 2 015

15

30

29

YTD 2 016

35

40

43

50

43

50

60

61

70

194 218 126

211 202

233 228 105 33

180

237 216

399 138

156 110

238 145

181

215 111

88

YTD 2 015

129

YTD 2 016

450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

405

Average Days on Market

FourSeasonsSIR.com 15

MICRO LAKE SUNAPEE REPORT Average Sale Price

YTD 2 016 YTD 2 015

16 FourSeasonsSIR.com

500000 450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0

MLS#4498829 PAM PERKINS

+42.85% Newport Number of Sales Q2 ytd 2016

58

New London Number of Sales Q2 ytd 2016 MLS#4469336 BO QUACKENBOS

Sold/list price ratio is steadily increasing in all towns.

+

-

Number of sales are up by at least 19% in all towns vs. quarter 2 2015.

Sale Prices on average are down from quarter 2 2015.

MICRO LAKE WINNIPESAUKEE REPORT Number of Sales

50 0

18 FourSeasonsSIR.com

14 10

YTD 2 015

122 100 75 58

93 76

100

59

YTD 2 016

77

150

67

200

86

173

207

250

YTD 2 016 YTD 2 015

172 144

158

198 124 119

135 151

150

140 152

200

137 148

250

196 172

Average Days on Market

100 50 0

FourSeasonsSIR.com 19

MICRO LAKE WINNIPESAUKEE REPORT Average Sale Price 700,000.00 600,000.00 500,000.00 400,000.00 YTD 2 016 YTD 2 015

300,000.00 200,000.00 100,000.00 0.00

20 FourSeasonsSIR.com

MLS#4471359 BRIAN NEIDHARDT

Number of sales has risen in all towns by at least 22%.

+

Sold/list price ratio is remaining steady.

Homes are continuing to stay on the market longer, but on average are selling for more than they were in quarter 2 2015.

MLS#4502851 RUTH NEIDHARDT

+214.40% Center Harbor Average Sale Price Q2 ytd 2016

+30.50% Meredith Number of Sales Q2 ytd 2016

FourSeasonsSIR.com 21

MICRO NORTHEAST KINGDOM REPORT Number of Sales 30

18

18

8 7

10

11

15 9

YTD 2 015

20

7

YTD 2 016

21

25

30

29

35

5 0 22 FourSeasonsSIR.com

Greensboro

Burke

Lyndon

Orleans

St. Johnsbury

Average Days on Market 353

400.00 350.00

200

220

201 83

150.00

157

YTD 2 015

129

200.00

179

YTD 2 016

154

250.00

223

300.00

100.00 50.00 0.00

Greensboro

Burke

Lyndon

Orleans

St. Johnsbury FourSeasonsSIR.com 23

MICRO NORTHEAST KINGDOM REPORT Average Sale Price 300,000.00 250,000.00 200,000.00 YTD 2 016 YTD 2 015

150,000.00 100,000.00 50,000.00 0.00

24 FourSeasonsSIR.com

Greensboro

Burke

Lyndon

Orleans

St. Johnsbury

MLS#4352744 KURT ZSCHAU

94.79% St. Johnsbury Sold/List Price % Q2 ytd 2016

+45.91% Burke Average Sale Price Q2 ytd 2016

MLS#4382635 KURT ZSCHAU

Sale price on average is rising by at least 20% in most towns.

Number of sales are declining in all towns.

-

Average days on market is down except in St. Johnsbury.

FourSeasonsSIR.com 25

MICRO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE REPORT

50 0

26 FourSeasonsSIR.com

52 40

YTD 2 015

100

14 7

YTD 2 016

58 47

150

126 112

200

135 141

176 180

219

250

223

251

300

262

Number of Sales

Average Days on Market 260

300

112

93 113

92 65

45 45

50

60

YTD 2 015

100

68 63

YTD 2 016

77 76

150

100

158

200

145

250

0

FourSeasonsSIR.com 27

MICRO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE REPORT

Average Sale Price

YTD 2 016 YTD 2 015

28 FourSeasonsSIR.com

500000 450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0

MLS#4457684 SHERRIE L. FRISONE

+19.23% Merrimack Average Sale Price Q2 ytd 2016

45

Merrimack Average Days on Market Q2 ytd 2016 MLS#4472201 LINDA ROSENTHALL

+

Number of sales are up in Amherst (12.5%) and Merrimack (17.48%).

Sell/list ratio is over 97% and remaining steady in all towns.

Homes are selling quicker in this market (77 days or less).

MICRO SOUTHERN VERMONT REPORT

30 FourSeasonsSIR.com

80 63

69

64 44

15

10 6

8 6

8 8

15 10

12 16

24 20

25 27 19 13

13 6

25

38 31

3 3

YTD 2 015

22 23

YTD 2 016

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

89

Number of Sales

279

367 148

224

309

355 117

200

252 261

226

323

373 312

359 293

310 192

229

332

316 327

326 173

262

355

427 244

240

102

YTD 2 015

188

YTD 2 016

500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

475

Average Days on Market

FourSeasonsSIR.com 31

0

32 FourSeasonsSIR.com

Chester

Peru

Shrewsbury

Weathersfield

Cavendish

Plymouth

Ludlow

Stratton

Winhall

Londonderry

Wardsboro

Marlboro

Dover

Wilmington

YTD 2 0 15 Manchester

YTD 2 0 16

Dorset

MICRO SOUTHERN VERMONT REPORT

Average Sale Price

700000

600000

500000

400000

300000

200000

100000

MLS#4470934 ADAM PALMITER

Homes are spending more time on the market. However, they are selling on average for more than they were quarter 2 2015.

+

On average, the number of sales are increasing from quarter 2 2015.

Average sale price is on the rise in most towns in this region.

MLS#4450146 NANCY JENSEN

+105.62% Plymouth Average Sale Price Q2 ytd 2016

+116.66% Wardsboro Number of Sales Q2 ytd 2016

YTD 2 015

34 FourSeasonsSIR.com

0 4 8 8 4 9 7 5 4 3 1 3 5

Pomfret Barnard Sharon Bridgewater West Fairlee Fairlee

17

12

13

9

6

6

32

30 36

46

90

104

101

124

140

Hartford

Thetford

Enfield

Cornish

Plainfield

Weathersfield

Woodstock

39

100

15 10

10 16

Lyme

20 15

40

Norwich

120

Lebanon

YTD 2 016 60 59 56

80

Hanover

MICRO UPPER VALLEY REPORT Number of Sales

YTD 2 016

YTD 2 015 Fairlee

West Fairlee

96 118

155

196

Bridgewater

273

261

272 237 163 183

140 154

234

183

Sharon

Barnard

Pomfret

Hartford

119

Thetford

209

226

200

177

134

110

117

50

69

Enfield

Cornish

Plainfield

Weathersfield

Woodstock

Lebanon

171 161

112 117

Norwich Lyme

97 103

377 327

355

444

500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Hanover

Average Days on Market

FourSeasonsSIR.com 35

36 FourSeasonsSIR.com

Norwich

Woodstock

Lebanon

Fairlee

West Fairlee

Bridgewater

Sharon

Barnard

Pomfret

Hartford

Thetford

Enfield

Cornish

Plainfield

Weathersfield

YTD 2 015 Lyme

YTD 2 016

900000 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 Hanover

MICRO UPPER VALLEY REPORT Average Sale Price

MLS#4503704 RICK HIGGERSON

The sold/list price ratio is remaining consistent between 90-98%.

Average sale prices are on the rise in Hanover, Lyme, Lebanon and Weathersfield.

Homes on average are spending less time on the market.

+50% Weathersfield Number of Sales Q2 ytd 2016

$532,890.00 Lyme Average Sale Price Q2 ytd 2016

FourSeasonsSIR.com 37

MACRO LUXURY REPORT

Defined as $600k+ Vermont & New Hampshire

Total Sales 100

95

90 FSSIR

80 70

Competitor A

60

Competitor B

50

Competitor C

40

Competitor D

30 20 10 0

38 FourSeasonsSIR.com

74 59

57 46

Total Sales in $000 100,000

91,824

90,000 FSSIR

80,000 70,000

Competitor A

60,000

Competitor B

50,000

Competitor C

40,000

Competitor D

60,541

59,813

54,401

52,659

30,000 20,000 10,000 0 FourSeasonsSIR.com 39

MACRO LUXURY REPORT

Defined as $600k+ Vermont & New Hampshire

Average Days on Market 200

180

180 FSSIR

160 140

Competitor A

120

Competitor B

100

Competitor C

80

Competitor D

60 40 20 0

40 FourSeasonsSIR.com

153 140 115 94

1 rd 3 st

MLS#4446245 COURTNEY LEGGETT

$91,824,000 Total Sales Q2 ytd 2016

140

Average Days on Market Q2 ytd 2016

in sales in units and dollars.

shortest average days on market.

MACRO LUXURY REPORT Defined as $600k+ Vermont

Total Sales 60

57

50 FSSIR Competitor A Competitor B Competitor C Competitor D

40 30 20

20 12

10 0 42 FourSeasonsSIR.com

38

12

Total Sales in $000 60,000 50,000 FSSIR Competitor A Competitor B Competitor C Competitor D

40,000

49,848

32,729

30,000 20,000

16,001

16,704

17,235

10,000 0 FourSeasonsSIR.com 43

MACRO LUXURY REPORT Defined as $600k+ Vermont

Average Days on Market 400

373 335

350 FSSIR

300

Competitor A

250

Competitor B

200

Competitor C

150

Competitor D

100 50 0

44 FourSeasonsSIR.com

167 134

63

1 rd 3 st

in total sales in units and dollars.

shortest average days on market.

MLS#4493566 CHERYL KERR MLS#4484785 CHERYL KERR

$49,848,000 Total Sales Q2 ytd 2016

57

Total Sales Q2 ytd 2016

FourSeasonsSIR.com 45

MACRO LUXURY REPORT Defined as $600k+ New Hampshire

Total Sales 80 70 Competitor A

60

Competitor B

50

Competitor C

40

FSSIR

30

Competitor D

20 10 0

46 FourSeasonsSIR.com

67 59 54

38

38

Total Sales in $000 70,000 60,000 Competitor A Competitor B Competitor C FSSIR Competitor D

50,000

59,813 54,523

51,781 41,974

45,017

40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 FourSeasonsSIR.com 47

MACRO LUXURY REPORT Defined as $600k+ New Hampshire

Average Days on Market 200

180

180 Competitor A

140

Competitor B

120

Competitor C

100

FSSIR Competitor D

80 60 40 20 0

48 FourSeasonsSIR.com

153

160 111

94 74

MLS#4494900 STAN BUTLER

$41,974,000 Total Sales Q2 ytd 2016

94 Total Sales Q2 ytd 2016

MLS#4504413 MELISSA ROBINSON

2 th 4

nd

lowest average days on market.

in total sales in units and dollars.

FourSeasonsSIR.com 49

MACRO LUXURY REPORT

Defined as $1 Million+ Vermont & New Hampshire

Total Sales 30 25 FSSIR Competitor A Competitor B Competitor C Competitor D

20 15 10 5 0

50 FourSeasonsSIR.com

25

15 12

11

10

Total Sales in $000 45,000 40,000 FSSIR Competitor A Competitor B Competitor C Competitor D

38,520

35,000 30,000 25,000

28,150

26,921 21,405

20,000 15,000

14,244

10,000 5,000 0 FourSeasonsSIR.com 51

MACRO LUXURY REPORT

Defined as $1 Million+ Vermont & New Hampshire

Average Days on Market 250 203

FSSIR Competitor A

200 150

151 135

Competitor B Competitor C Competitor D

109

100 50 0

52 FourSeasonsSIR.com

28

MLS#4374987 PAULA HINCKLEY

1 rd 3 st

MLS#4479801 MARY PAT PALMER

$38,520,000 Total Sales Q2 ytd 2016

25

Total Sales Q2 ytd 2016

in total sales in units and dollars.

in average days on market.

MACRO LUXURY REPORT Defined as $1 Million+ Vermont

Total Sales 14

13

12 FSSIR Competitor A Competitor B Competitor C Competitor D

10 8 6 4 2 0

54 FourSeasonsSIR.com

7 6 5 4

Total Sales in $000 20,000 18,000 FSSIR

16,000 14,000

Competitor A

12,000

Competitor B

10,000

Competitor C

8,000

Competitor D

17,163

12,630

12,332 9,440 6,840

6,000 4,000 2,000 0 FourSeasonsSIR.com 55

MACRO LUXURY REPORT Defined as $1 Million+ Vermont

Average Days on Market 500 429

450 FSSIR

350

Competitor A

300

Competitor B

250

Competitor C

200

Competitor D

150 100 50 0

56 FourSeasonsSIR.com

381

400

220

216 156

MLS#4497658 KATHY O’BRIEN

1 rd 3 st

in total sales in units and dollars.

in average days on market.

MLS#4495383 KATHY O’BRIEN

$17,163,000 Total Sales Q2 ytd 2016

13

Total Sales Q2 ytd 2016

FourSeasonsSIR.com 57

MACRO LUXURY REPORT Defined as $1 Million+ New Hampshire

Total Sales 16 14 Competitor A

12

FSSIR

10

Competitor B

8

Competitor C

6

Competitor D

4 2 0

58 FourSeasonsSIR.com

15

12

12

9

9

Total Sales in $000 30000 25000 Competitor A FSSIR Competitor B Competitor C Competitor D

28,150 24,346 21,357

21,405

20000 15000

12,203

10000 5000 0 FourSeasonsSIR.com 59

MACRO LUXURY REPORT Defined as $1 Million+ New Hampshire

Average Days on Market 250 203

Competitor A FSSIR

200 150

135

Competitor B Competitor C Competitor D

100 50 0

60 FourSeasonsSIR.com

97 82

25

MLS#4464723 PAM PERKINS

$21,357,000 Total Sales Q2 ytd 2016

82

Average Days on Market Q2 ytd 2016

MLS#4466824 JUDY CASHMAN

2 nd 2 nd

in total sales in units and dollars.

in average days on market.

&

VERMONT NEW HAMPSHIRE

Lake Sunapee Region New London: 603.526.4050

Northeast Kingdom St. Johnsbury: 802.751.7582

Lake Winnipesaukee Region Meredith: 603.677.7012 Wolfeboro: 603.941.1000

Southern Vermont Mount Snow: 802.464.1200 Stratton: 802.297.1100 Manchester: 802.362.4551 Okemo: 802.228.4537 Bromley: 802.824.3113

Upper Valley Fairlee: 802.333.4701 Hanover: 603.643.6070 603.643.6400 West Lebanon: 603.298.5155

Champlain Valley Middlebury: 802.388.1000 Vergennes: 802.877.3232 South Burlington: 802.864.0541

*All Data NEREN 1/1/16 - 6/30/16 & Trendgraphix 1/1/16 - 6/30/16

STOWE ST JOHNSBURY

VERGENNES MIDDLEBURY

RANDOLPH

FAIRLEE HANOVER

RUTLAND

OKEMO

Southern New Hampshire Bedford: 603.413.7600

Central Vermont Rutland: 802.774.7007 Stowe: 802.253.7267 Randolph: 802.565.8136

62 FourSeasonsSIR.com

SOUTH BURLINGTON

MANCHESTER

WEST LEBANON

MEREDITH

NEW LONDON

BROMLEY STRATTON

BEDFORD MOUNT SNOW

WOLFEBORO