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Basch Report: Sunday opening boosts Maple Street sales PAGE 9

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JACKSONVILLE

Record & Observer ECONOMIC FORECAST ISSUE JACKSONVILLE

Record & Observer HOW THEY’RE

TAKING ON 2021 JACKSONVILLE

Record & Observer JACKSONVILLE

Record & Observer

Leaders in Northeast Florida government, business, industry, entertainment and more offer their insight on what’s ahead for the economy and share their strategies for the new year. PREDICTIONS & INSIGHT, PAGES 3-8

University of North Florida economist Albert Loh is optimistic about the recovery of the area economy as COVID-19 treatments and vaccines become available and more activities resume.

BY MARK BASCH CONTRIBUTING WRITER

hen economists were making their 2020 forecasts 12 months ago, nobody could have seen what

was coming. The first cases of COVID-19 were detected in December 2019 in China and it would be months before people realized the impact it would have on the global economy.

What’s Trending: No Council vote on Lot J project this year PAGE 2 The top sales of the week in commercial real estate PAGE 10

Jacksonville felt the impact much like the rest of the U.S., with businesses shutting down in the spring and thousands of local residents losing their jobs, at least temporarily. The good news as economists make their 2021 forecasts is conditions can only get better. “We have reasons to be optimistic about a robust recovery of the local economy in 2021,” said University of North Florida economist Albert Loh. “As more COVID treatments and vaccines become widely available in the early half of the year, many economic

activities, including those in the worst hit sectors such as accommodations, hospitality, entertainment and air travel, can return more fully,” he said. The most recent available data shows Northeast Florida has recovered strongly already from the big job losses in the spring, but the economy still has more to do to return to its pre-pandemic level. The unemployment rate in the Jacksonville metropolitan area was 5% in October, much lower than its April peak SEE ECONOMY, PAGE 6

ARE YOU A TOP CONTRACTOR? LET US KNOW Contractors based throughout Northeast Florida are invited to apply for inclusion in the Jacksonville Daily Record and Jacksonville Record and Observer’s inaugural Top Contractors issue scheduled for March 18. The issue will rank the top 50 contractors in the region by revenue, amounting to a valuable who’s-who guide to the industry. The 2021 Top Contractors issue will include information about the most important projects the companies started in 2020 and the most notable projects in their portfolios. To find out more and submit your information, please visit jaxdailyrecord.com/top-contractors-submit

VOLUME 3, NO. 28 • ONE SECTION

WHAT’S TRENDING

JaxDailyRecord.com JACKSONVILLE DAILY RECORD / JACKSONVILLE RECORD & OBSERVER 2

JACKSONVILLE DAILY RECORD / JACKSONVILLE RECORD & OBSERVER 10, 2020 THURSDAY, DECEMBER

Big news doesn’t break just on Thursday. Here’s a look at some of the top stories published over the past week online at JaxDailyRecord.com and in the Jacksonville Daily Record that you may have missed.

Daily Record JACKSONVILLE

HOW TO REACH US 121 W. Forsyth St., Suite 150, Jacksonville, FL, 32202 Phone: (904) 356-2466, Fax (904) 353-2628 jaxdailyrecord.com

ABOUT US

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 19, 2020 1 JaxDailyRecord.com

Daily Record JACKSONVILLE

HOW TO REACH US JACKSONVILLE

Daily Record 121 W. Forsyth St., Suite 150, Jacksonville, FL, 32202 Phone: (904) 356-2466, Fax (904) 353-2628 jaxdailyrecord.com

Daily Record Daily Record JACKSONVILLE ABOUT US

Jacksonville Daily Record and Jacksonville Record & Observer are a division of Observer Media Group Inc.

Established in 1912, the Financial News & Daily Record, now the Jacksonville Daily File image Record, Monday-Friday is thewest Official Court Newspaper of the Circuit Lot is J ispublished a mixed-use developmentand planned of TIAA Bank Field. Court and publisher of public notices in Duval County.

Established in 1912, the Financial News & Daily Record, now the Jacksonville Daily JACKSONVILLE Court Newspaper of the Circuit Record, is published Monday-Friday and is the Official Court and publisher of public notices in Duval County.

Jacksonville Record & Observer is a free weekly business newspaper available in DEVELOPMENT Downtown Jacksonville and key business nodes throughout Jacksonville. To find a location near you, visit jaxdailyrecord.com/rack-locations.

Jacksonville Record & Observer is a free weekly business newspaper available in Downtown Jacksonville and key business nodes throughout Jacksonville. To find a location near you, visit jaxdailyrecord.com/rack-locations.

Editorial content focuses on news and trends, with a concentration development, Council members toon fully process over City Council President Tommy real estate, construction, law,bring companies, economic and industry andfinancial how local 200 pages of verytrends complex Hazouri said he will not up Jackand state government affects business. and legal documents in less than 36 sonville Jaguars owner Shad Khan’s hours and be prepared to take this $450 million Lot J project for discussion or a final vote before Dec. 11. STAFFimportant vote,” Hazouri wrote. Hazouri said he intends to bring the In a Dec. 5 news release, Hazouri said Publisher / Matt Walsh of Advertising / Jay Lesowitz legislation and its $245.3 million city he would not put Ordinance 2020-0648 Director mwalsh@jaxdailyrecord.com jlesowitz@jaxdailyrecord.com incentives package up for debate and on the Council meeting agenda adPublisher Emeritus / James said F. Bailey Coordinator / Codi Gildberg amendments at a Jan. 7 Committee dendum. The Jaguars Dec.Jr.8 they Advertising jbailey@jaxdailyrecord.com adassist@jaxdailyrecord.com of the Whole meeting and schedule a support moving the vote to January. Editor /“It Karen Brune too Mathis Legal Advertising Manager / Janet Mohr final vote Jan. 12. is asking much for the 19

Editorial content focuses on news and trends, with a concentration on development, real estate, construction, law, companies, economic and industry trends and how local and state government affects business.

kmathis@jaxdailyrecord.com

Managing Editor / Monty Zickuhr mzickuhr@jaxdailyrecord.com

Council president: No Lot J vote this year

Publisher / Matt Walsh mwalsh@jaxdailyrecord.com

Director of Advertising / Jay Lesowitz jlesowitz@jaxdailyrecord.com

Publisher Emeritus / James F. Bailey Jr. jbailey@jaxdailyrecord.com

Advertising Coordinator / Codi Gildberg adassist@jaxdailyrecord.com

legal@jaxdailyrecord.com

Editor / Karen Brune Mathis kmathis@jaxdailyrecord.com

Legal Advertising Manager / Janet Mohr legal@jaxdailyrecord.com

Legal Advertising Associate / Rhonda Fisher rfisher@jaxdailyrecord.com

Managing Editor / Monty Zickuhr mzickuhr@jaxdailyrecord.com

Legal Advertising Associate / Rhonda Fisher rfisher@jaxdailyrecord.com

DISTRIBUTION CENTERS

Associate Editor Legal Affairs / Max Marbut mmarbut@jaxdailyrecord.com

Network Administrator / Erik Wagner webadmin@jaxdailyrecord.com

A1 Auto plans North Jacksonville warehouse

Staff Writer / Katie Garwood kgarwood@jaxdailyrecord.com

STAFF

Court Typeset / Paula Steiner

near JaxPort’s Blount Island Marine The Jacksonville Port Authority an- admin@jaxdailyrecord.com Staffnounced Writer / Mike Terminal in the first/quarter of 2021. Dec.Mendenhall 7 that 1A Auto, an online- Director of Circulation Anne Shumate mmendenhall@jaxdailyrecord.com 1A Auto will use the facility to sameonly aftermarket auto parts retailer, subscriptions@jaxdailyrecord.com Business Manager / Angiefor Campbell day ship imported auto accessories chose Jacksonville its Southeast Distribution / Tim Reagan acampbell@jaxdailyrecord.com and repair parts, including headlights, U.S. distribution operations. distribution@jaxdailyrecord.com mirrors, brake kits, and shocks and It said the Massachusetts-based struts from Asia for e-commerce company will open an 86,800-squaredistribution throughout the Southeast PRESS RELEASE/INQUIRY/REPRINTS foot warehouse at 12090 New Berlin U.S., the port said. Road in NorthPoint Industrial Park, Submit a press release or editorial inquiry online jaxdailyrecord.com/submit-news-release or email editorial@jaxdailyrecord.com. Article reprints are available at jaxdailyrecord.com

HIGHER EDUCATION

HOW TO SUBSCRIBE Delaney named interim Flagler College president

Associate Editor Legal Affairs / Max Marbut mmarbut@jaxdailyrecord.com Staff Writer / Katie Garwood kgarwood@jaxdailyrecord.com

Network Administrator / Erik Wagner webadmin@jaxdailyrecord.com Court Typeset / Paula Steiner admin@jaxdailyrecord.com

Staff Writer / Mike Mendenhall mmendenhall@jaxdailyrecord.com Business Manager / Angie Campbell acampbell@jaxdailyrecord.com

Director of Circulation / Anne Shumate subscriptions@jaxdailyrecord.com Distribution / Tim Reagan distribution@jaxdailyrecord.com

PRESS RELEASE/INQUIRY/REPRINTS Submit a press release or editorial inquiry online jaxdailyrecord.com/submit-news-release or email editorial@jaxdailyrecord.com. Article reprints are available at jaxdailyrecord.com

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Subscribe online at jaxdailyrecord.com/subscribe or contact our subscription ment will allow the board’s PresidenFormer Mayor John or email department byJacksonville phone at (877) 231-8834 subscriptions@jaxdailyrecord.com tial Search Committee to plan and Delaney will be interim president of PRICESconduct a national search to find its Flagler College beginning in July, acfifth president amid COVID-19 cording to a news release from the Thursday only ..........$66 per yeartravel 2 years ................................... $154 restrictions and gatheringcents limitations. college’s board of trustees. Single copy ......................35 1 year ........................................$89 In addition to two terms as mayor, Current Flagler College President 6 months .................................$55 Delaney is former president of the Joseph Joyner announced his retireUniversity of North Florida and former ment in November. He will step down HOW TO ADVERTISE interim chancellor of the state univerat the end of the 2020-21 academic sity year after four years in the position. Display & Digital Advertising: Call Jay Lesowitz atsystem. (904) 356-2466 or email The release said Delaney’s appointjlesowitz@jaxdailyrecord.com

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PRICES 2 years ................................... $154 1 year ........................................$89 6 months .................................$55

HOW TO ADVERTISE Display & Digital Advertising: Call Jay Lesowitz at (904) 356-2466 or email jlesowitz@jaxdailyrecord.com

JaxDailyRecord There’s a shortcut to staying in the loop Don’t miss a story. Subscribe to the Daily Brief and we’ll send our top news to you Monday-Friday morning via email. To sign up, visit POSTAL INFORMATION JaxDailyRecord.com and look for the “Sign up” box, enter your email and Jacksonville Daily Record (USPS 190-620) is published daily except Saturday, you’ll be set. Sunday & legal holidays (New Year’s Day, Memorial Day, Independence Day, Labor Day, Thanksgiving and Christmas) by Daily Record & Observer LLC, 10 N. Newnan St., Jacksonville, FL 32202. Periodicals postage paid at Jacksonville, Florida and at additional mailing offices. Under no circumstances will any news or records of Duval County be suppressed for anyone. Information in this newspaper is for our subscribers only and must not be used by anyone for publication purposes.

DEVELOPMENT TODAY

HOSPITAL, INSTITUTIONAL These are the largest commercial POSTMASTER Serenity of Mind Inc., 1735 Daytona building permits by job cost issued SendDec. address toJacksonville. Jacksonville Daily Record, Box 15456, North Hollywood, Lane,P.O. contractor is Xeye Inc., 2,970 8 by changes the city of CA, 91615-9965 square feet, converting single-family to residential care facility, $33,000. APARTMENTS OFFICIAL DESIGNATIONS The Doro, 960 E. Adams St., STORES, MERCANTILE contractor is Rise General Contractors The Official Newspaper for The Official Newspaper The Official Court U-Haul 1601 Normandy Village LLC, 177,200 square feet, 247-unit U.S. Bankruptcy Court of The Jacksonville Bar Inc.,the Newspaper of Duval Parkway, contractor is Scherer apartment building, $35.58 million. Association, Nov. 21, 1926. for the Middle District of County by Order of the Construction of Northeast Florida LLC, Duval Crossing, 14200 Duval Road, Florida, Jan. 4, 1947. Circuit Court, July 7, 1961. 75,522 square feet, converting former contractor is Summit Contracting Group Kmart, $481,539. Inc., 5,323 square feet, six AFFILIATIONS permits for mail kiosk, maintenance building, Florida Press Association garages and trash compactor, $500,000. Compiled by Daily Record Staff

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POSTAL INFORMATION Jacksonville Daily Record (USPS 190-620) is published daily except Saturday, Sunday & legal holidays (New Year’s Day, Memorial Day, Independence Day, Labor Day, Thanksgiving and Christmas) by Daily Record & Observer LLC, 10 N. Newnan St., Jacksonville, FL 32202. Periodicals postage paid at Jacksonville, Florida and at additional mailing offices. Under no circumstances will any news or records of Duval County be suppressed for anyone. Information in this newspaper is for our subscribers only and must not be used by anyone for publication purposes.

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OFFICIAL DESIGNATIONS The Official Court Newspaper of Duval County by Order of the Circuit Court, July 7, 1961.

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AFFILIATIONS Florida Press Association

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JACKSONVILLE DAILY RECORD / JACKSONVILLE RECORD & OBSERVER

JaxDailyRecord.com

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 10, 2020

ECONOMIC FORECAST ISSUE

HOW THEY’RE TAKING ON 2021 BY KAREN BRUNE MATHIS, MIKE MENDENHALL, MAX MARBUT & KATIE GARWOOD • JACKSONVILLE DAILY RECORD AND RECORD & OBSERVER STAFF

Leaders in government, business, industry, entertainment and more offer their insight on what’s ahead for the economy and share their strategies for the new year. RETAILING Lisa Palmer Regency Centers Corp. president and CEO

The primary economic issue facing retailers for 2021 will be the continued impacts from COVID-19, including the financial hardships of the consumer and the operating restrictions placed on many of our merchants.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

Regency has been working to help our tenants adapt. For example, we are allocating space for easier curbside pickup and created our own “Pick-Up & Go Zones” and are assisting restaurant and fitness operators by providing greater access to outdoor common areas. Many retailers are doing their part to adapt and survive. We’re encouraged by their flexibility and have confidence that many will emerge stronger. The restrictions, which are creating extended uncertainties, will ease at some point and the vaccine news is positive for economic recovery prospects as a whole, providing hope and optimism for the consumer and merchants in 2021.

Wendy Norfleet Norfleet Integrated Solutions CEO

The economic issue facing the IT industry is embracing technologies that ensure digital or remote operations. Our future includes much of society being digital.

COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT Christian Oldenburg Colliers International North Florida managing director

Restaurateurs in North Florida are showing a surprising amount of economic confidence moving into 2021, making North Florida a bright spot nationwide as restaurant owners open new locations. Commercial office occupancy faces a choppy recovery. As the virus goes, so goes the economy, at least in the short term. Office leases

trend longer term with a five-year average, which clouds the impact of remote and virtual working. But there are signals that not all office work can be optimized for remote operations. What we’re hearing is the work-fromhome experiment wasn’t as great as everybody thought it was initially. The industrial market has cruised through this almost unscathed. Industrial and multifamily real estate will lead the recovery with retail close behind.

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COVID-19 is affecting all commercial development.

The IT industry is facing unprecedented times. Face it, returning to normal is no longer the direction that most are pursuing. I deal with many technologies delivering services, such as training and consulting. With technologies such as Zoom and Webex, holding a meeting virtually was easy. However, there were not as many choices for interactive training platforms that offered multiple modalities. As a result of the pandemic, in the coming year I will ensure the training platforms I select for my clients allow me to meet their digital client needs.

JACKSONVILLE DAILY RECORD / JACKSONVILLE RECORD & OBSERVER

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 10, 2020

JaxDailyRecord.com

2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST

COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

LAND DEVELOPMENT

Irvin ‘PeDro’ Cohen

Thomas G. ‘Trey’ Wilson III

Ed Burr

LISC Jacksonville executive director

The primary issue is closing the racial gaps in health, wealth and opportunity and building a more broadly shared American prosperity. Our strategy at LISC Jacksonville and LISC nationally is the launch of Project 10X, an intentional investment in businesses, community organizations, developers and projects that catalyze gains for people of color and contribute to growth in the communities where they live. LISC is seeding Project 10X with $20 million and is working toward a $1 billion goal. We will deploy capital based on four priorities: Generate lasting equity and wealth through homeownership and small business ownership; build credit and savings and strengthen financial institutions led by Black, Indigenous and people of color; invest in community health, digital access, education, arts and justice; and support quality jobs with good wages and benefits.

The biggest economic issue facing land development is uncertainty, such as COVID-19, an economic relief package, tax and fiscal policies and potential state budget cuts. These issues makes decision-making in business very difficult.

The economy in 2021 will be shaped by the pandemic. The strategy for responding to the pandemic depends on the sector. Demand for warehouse space will increase as retail moves remote, which will continue to drive related development. Meanwhile, office footprints seem likely to shrink as more work is done from home. Landlords will need to differentiate their product from the rest, and businesses will have to make employees feel safe coming back to work. If a vaccine is available soon and rolled out effectively, then the guarded confidence we’ve seen in the last several months could transform into a real boom. It would be especially meaningful for the retail and hospitality industries.

Dennis Chan Blue Bamboo owner

GreenPointe Holdings president and CEO

Driver, McAfee, Hawthorne & Diebenow partner; NAIOP Northeast Florida, president, board of directors

RESTAURANTS

Our strategy is to identify the positives in our industry and focus on our strengths. We expect the interest rate environment to remain stable for the next few years and Florida is an attractive state for in-migration, which are positives for our industry in general and GreenPointe in particular. GreenPointe specializes in large masterplanned community developments, which usually take seven-plus years to fully develop and sell out. Accordingly, we are impacted by long-term macroeconomic issues more than shortterm economic issues.

The primary economic issue for restaurants is adjusting to COVID-19’s impact. The customer dine-in experience is our restaurant’s strength. Blue Bamboo will tap into “nonregular” markets, such as ready-to-eat takeout, cooking kits and virtual cooking classes. Our strategy to get more people through our restaurant doors as we move to a new location is making sure that those guests who enter our doors have great experiences so that they can’t wait to come back. Blue Bamboo will use its move from 3820 Southside Blvd. to 10110 San Jose Blvd. to invest in new ordering technology to minimize contact for the customer who are not ready to physically socialize.

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JACKSONVILLE DAILY RECORD / JACKSONVILLE RECORD & OBSERVER

JaxDailyRecord.com

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 10, 2020

2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST

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RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE

SMALL BUSINESS

Christy Budnick

Carlton Robinson

Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Florida Network Realty broker, president and CEO

JAXUSA chief innovation officer

While 2020 started out slowly for the residential real estate industry, the second half saw low interest rates and a low inventory market in Northeast Florida and across the country. Those trends are expected to continue into 2021. Realtors are hopeful that those who have been considering selling their home will decide to list them as properties continue to sell for above the asking price. The end of the year is seeing more higher-end homes selling, which is expected into the new year. Those properties will be sold quicker as a result of the low inventory market. A wide distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine could help get more homes on the market. Those who may have been hesitant to sell during a pandemic could see renewed confidence as the country gets vaccinated.

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The primary issue will be exploring innovative ways to acquire and develop customers in a hybrid business environment. The virtual business environment will force small businesses to have better tools and expertise to compete. The JAX Chamber has spent the last two years leading a digital transformation in entrepreneurial support. The pandemic accelerated those efforts. Like most small businesses, our “why” has been proven over the years. When facing uncertain times, what’s needed by entrepreneurs is a focus on how they execute. We listened to the small business community and our Small Business Leaders of the Year to transform how we support the small business community. Through our JAX Bridges program we were able to facilitate the online movement for more than 200 small businesses during the pandemic.

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HEALTH CARE

BANKING

Leon Haley

John Hirabayashi

UF Health Jacksonville CEO

Community First Credit Union president and CEO

2020 wasn’t a typical year for any industry, but especially not health care. Much of the year’s focus was on COVID-19, and that focus will likely carry over into the first half of 2021. That means treating patients with COVID and assisting in administering the vaccine. At the same time, health systems are going to be returning focus to growing their footprints and positioning themselves for the end of 2021 and into 2022. More plans for construction and expansion can be expected in the next year. Systems will also place a greater emphasis on efficiently delivering health care digitally through telemedicine. COVID-19 caused a shift in the way health care is delivered, and digital options will likely expand in 2021.

VyStar Title Agency* knows that closings can be tense. So, whether you’re a buyer, broker, Realtor, or lender, we’ll be there step-by-step to help make the process as fast and easy as possible. You’ll get the personal attention you deserve from the moment the file is opened until the last document is signed and delivered. So relax, and rely on VyStar Title Agency for precise, prompt, and professional service.

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More banking than ever is being done virtually and remotely as a result of the pandemic, and there are no signs of that stopping in 2021. People are handling their finances on their phones, computers and by calling into banks rather than going in person. Banks and credit unions are extending call center hours and making their institutions more accessible to customers. The deposit rates at Community First Credit Union are more than three times higher than usual, thanks to people saving more and spending less during the pandemic. As those conditions continue, so will those trends. The Federal Reserve has indicated that interest rates will remain low through the next year, which means mortgages and auto loans are expected to remain strong for banks and credit unions.

* VyStar Title Agency, a division of VyStar Financial Group LLC; a wholly owned subsidiary of VyStar Credit Union. Not federally insured and not underwritten or guaranteed by the credit union. 324368-1

JACKSONVILLE DAILY RECORD / JACKSONVILLE RECORD & OBSERVER

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 10, 2020

JaxDailyRecord.com

2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST

DOWNTOWN

ENTERTAINMENT

Matt Brockelman

Thea Jeffers

The Southern Group lobbyist; Downtown Development Review Board member

Breezy Jazz Club owner

The health of Jacksonville’s urban economy will partially depend on the coronavirusrelated economic stimulus approved in the U.S. Congress. One bright spot in Downtown’s real estate market during the COVID-19 pandemic has been multifamily housing. Residential is an area of Jacksonville’s Downtown market expected to grow in 2021. On the residential side, people are still flocking to Downtown. The Residences at Barnett has a waiting list, for example. There seems to be strong demand for Downtown. The Southern Group represents the Florida Theatre. Federal officials need to target workers like artists, stage workers and theater personnel whose livelihoods depend on the in-person experience that was shut down through much of 2020. It would be helpful if Congress could tailor some fiscal stimulus measures that are oriented toward the people whose industries continue to be devastated by the pandemic.

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

DISTILLING

Kirk Wendland

St. Augustine Distillery co-founder and CFO

Jacksonville Office of Economic Development director

The primary economic issue facing entertainment is the effect of COVID-19. Financial success in 2021 for restaurant and local entertainment venues is possible with plans to avoid being controlled by uncertainty created by COVID-19. Breezy Jazz Club will expand from a 100-person capacity club Downtown to a 4,450-square-foot location at 1402 San Marco Blvd. in San Marco that seats 155. Our strategy is wise marketing, proper COVID-19 safety precautions for guests and capitalizing on existing customers and business. The uncertainty is real, and 2020 has taught us to be ready for anything and creative in our approach. The biggest economic issue for the restaurant industry is surviving through being open one month and closed the next. Will our guests come to support us while we all try to recoup from this seemingly endless pandemic?

The primary issue facing economic development is continuing to recruit and create jobs and capital investment. Jacksonville is not in a vacuum facing nationwide economic challenges expected in 2021, but Northeast Florida is positioned better than some U.S. regions as companies in pandemic-resilient sectors like logistics, distribution and e-commerce continue to invest in local commercial projects. It certainly appears that the large landowners are forecasting positive future growth in that area as they go through the permitting cycle. The city will incentivize what City Hall officials consider job-creating targeted industries like financial technology and medical device manufacturers and distribution, looking at specific industries that are expanding. The expiration of Florida’s Qualified Target Industry Tax Refund Program in June removed one of the city’s economic development tools. The Legislature might look at a similar program.

Mike Diaz For brewers and spirit manufacturers, economic recovery will be linked to Florida’s state government making it easier for producers to sell directly to consumers. Gov. Ron DeSantis relaxed statewide restrictions on to-go alcohol sales during the COVID-19 pandemic as he ordered capacity restrictions April through June. He has stated he would consider making those new rules permanent. We will work closely with the Visitors and Convention Bureau and local, state and national representatives to try to maximize support for small business, and advocate for the direct-to-consumer privileges enjoyed by wineries. The overall national economy will continue to lag in 2021 from a COVID hangover as bars and restaurants continue to struggle, while Northeast Florida demographics will continue to work in our favor.

Economy: A ‘much better’ year in 2021 of 11.2%. It’s still much higher than the record 2.6% rate in December 2019. Jacksonville area businesses reported 29,600 fewer jobs on their payrolls in October than they had 12 months earlier, a 4% decline. More recent data on statewide trends in Florida shows contin-

ued improvement. The number of new claims for unemployment insurance has been dropping steadily since July and fell to 20,787 in the week ended Nov. 28, the lowest level since March. New claims averaged about 5,500 in the first 11 weeks of 2020 before pandemic-related business closings began. Weekly claims in Florida peaked at 506,670 in the week

ended April 18. Even if a vaccine successfully ends the pandemic in 2021, the economy will Loh continue to feel long-term effects, Loh said. “Many businesses may continue to rely heavily on online

operation for fear of COVID returning as a seasonal threat and to serve customers who became accustomed to such a transaction mode during the height of the pandemic,” he said. “Meanwhile, the damage to the state revenue in 2020 will trickle down to impact local budgets on public services, including education, transportation, and others next year.”

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At least 2021 will be an improvement. “We may continue to feel the impact of the pandemic in the next couple of years, but all indications suggest that next year will be a much better one than 2020,” Loh said.

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JACKSONVILLE DAILY RECORD / JACKSONVILLE RECORD & OBSERVER

JaxDailyRecord.com

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 10, 2020

2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST

LAW

TOURISM

Michelle Bedoya Barnett

Michael Corrigan

Jacksonville Bar Association president

These are indeed the worst times in the history of tourism. While Jacksonville has fared better than most of our country, the forecast doesn’t show a vast improvement for the first half of 2021.

There is so much backlog in the courts and a pent-up demand for legal services that there is no question that 2021 will be a busy year for Jacksonville lawyers. With respect to litigation, Jacksonville enjoys a collegial Bar, which will no doubt assist in the resolution of matters and ultimately in clearing the backlog. In addition, with North Florida’s population increasing exponentially it follows that there will be more work in the areas of real estate, development and estate planning. Jacksonville lawyers should expect that 2021 will bring positive and sustainable growth and benefits

Visit Jacksonville president and CEO

We don’t expect to see growth until group and business travel start to happen more consistently. We are optimistic for future years since so many of our canceled groups have rescheduled. In 2021, Visit Jacksonville will focus on the drive market, promoting our spacious beaches and expansive parks that have appealed to those looking for a safe getaway. Our sales team is diligently working on booking business for future years, focused on 2022 and beyond. We will continue to look for new opportunities to help us make strides in putting our full industry back to work.

HIGHER EDUCATION

NONPROFITS

John Avendano

The Nonprofit Center of Northeast Florida CEO

Florida State College at Jacksonville president

I think the impact COVID had on small businesses will have taken its toll. I don’t think we will be at the low unemployment levels we saw in the early part of 2020, but I am also hopeful that will not be as bad as many think. My best prediction is around 6% or so. Regardless of the ongoing impact from COVID, FSCJ is prepared for a slight unemployment increase by offering programs that lead to high wage jobs – IT, health careers, business and manufacturing. These appear to be the employment fields that will survive the recession for the near future. Much will likely depend on what happens with the transition in the White House. If there is another shutdown, I think the markets will drop, but not to the levels of the previous shutdown. The markets have always survived and rebounded after a period of time.

Rena Coughlin There’s a tremendous amount of uncertainty. It’s hampering any organization’s ability to strategize for the new year. There’s also an increased demand for services along with a decrease in resources. Some organizations switched to virtual, like mental health counseling, but many organizations have to deliver their services in person, like elder care and disabled services. There will be long-term damage to arts and culture organizations. If your business is to bring a house full of people together for music or theater, you have the least ability to develop alternative income. In the last recession, we saw organizations cannibalizing their assets. The pandemic happened so fast, and on the tail of the recession, so a lot of organizations don’t have assets. It’s estimated that 11% to 32% of nonprofits will fail or have to merge or restructure. No matter how the economy plays out, nonprofits are behind the eight ball. There are challenges ahead.

Cantor Fitzgerald Commercial Metals Com Wayfair Forcura Wayfair Flying W Plastics $856 million in capital investment Wayfair Wayfair Eagle LNG Forcura Nearly 2,500 new jobs Synergy Technologies Eagle LNG Cantor Fitzgerald Forcura And we’re not done yet in 2020. Cantor Fitzgerald H&M Metal Processing We’re still growingWayfair in Northeast FloridaWayfair NewRez LLC Forcura and our future is bright. Lowes Cantor Fitzgerald www.jaxusa.org NewRez LLC www.myjaxchamber.com Synergy Technologies Cantor Fitzgerald Forcura Synergy Technologies Made In Space Eagle LNG Synergy Technologies Made In Space Cantor Fitzgerald 346856-1

Connect. Grow. Prosper.

Daily Record 1/2 page horizontal.indd 1

10/9/20 1:16 PM

JACKSONVILLE DAILY RECORD / JACKSONVILLE RECORD & OBSERVER

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 10, 2020

JaxDailyRecord.com

2021 ECONOMIC FORECAST

Looking into the economic crystal ball We asked area leaders their predictions on four key economic barometers for the U.S. and Northeast Florida: Will unemployment be up or down by the end of 2021?

Title

Leader

Will the national economy be better or worse by the end of 2021?

Will the Northeast Florida economy be better or worse by the end of 2021?

Will the stock market be up or down by the end of 2021?

John Avendano Florida State College at Jacksonville president Up slightly Up Better

I believe our local economy will be a reflection of the national economy.

Michelle Bedoya Barnett

Jacksonville Bar Association president

Down

Better

Worse

Matt Brockelman

Southern Group lobbyist and Downtown Development Review Board member

Down

Better

Christy Budnick

Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Florida Network Realty broker, president and CEO

Down

Better

Ed Burr

GreenPointe Holdings president and CEO

Down

Better

Dennis Chan

Blue Bamboo restaurant owner

Better

Worse

Irvin ‘PeDro’ Cohen

LISC Jacksonville executive director

Down

Better

Flat

Rena Coughlin

The Nonprofit Center of Northeast Florida CEO

Better

Mike Diaz

St. Augustine Distillery co-founder and CFO

Unknown

Better

Worse

Leon Haley

UF Health Jacksonville CEO

Down

Better

John Hirabayashi

Community First Credit Union president and CEO

Down

Better

Can’t say

Thea Jeffers

Breezy Jazz Club owner

Down

Better

Wendy Norfleet

Norfleet Integrated Solutions CEO

Better

Christian Oldenburg

Colliers International North Florida managing director

Down

Better

Lisa Palmer

Regency Centers Corp. president and CEO

Down

Better

Carlton Robinson

JAXUSA chief innovation officer

Down

Better

Worse

Kirk Wendland

Jacksonville Office of Economic Development director

Down

Better

Thomas G. ‘Trey’ Wilson III

Driver, McAfee, Hawthorne & Diebenow partner, NAIOP president

Down

Better

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JaxDailyRecord.com

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 10, 2020

Sunday opening lifts Maple Street sales

Cracker Barrel reports a 20% increase at a subsidiary that was founded in Jacksonville. When Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. bought Maple Street Biscuit Company last year, it promised not to tamper with the successful formula of the restaurant chain founded in Jacksonville. However, the company did make one change that is having a positive impact: opening Maple Street restaurants on Sundays. Cracker Barrel did not report sales data for Maple Street when the company reported earnings last week for its first quarter ended Oct. 30. However, in the company’s conference call with analysts, CEO Sandy Cochran said Maple Street’s comparablestore sales (sales at stores open for more than one year) were about 20% higher than a year ago. “These results include the benefit of being open on Sunday

earnings report. “Our upgrade is based on our confidence in management and the company’s ability to safely serve its guests both within and outside its Old Country Stores, evolve its menu with a compelling mix of old favorites and ‘on-trend’ new choices, layer on a broadening array of retail goods, and steadily update its business model to improve its sales, margins, and cash flow,” Derrington said in a research note.

Foley blank check company agrees to acquire Paysafe

Fidelity National Financial Inc.’s deal-making Chairman Bill Foley announced another major transaction this week. A blank check company formed by Foley agreed to acquire Paysafe Group Holdings Ltd., a London-based payment processing company. The deal includes a $500 million investment by subsidiaries of Fidelity, the Jacksonville-based title insurance company. Cannae Holdings Inc., the investment company spun off from Fidelity, will invest another $350 million. The total purchase price wasn’t announced but Foley’s company said the deal values Paysafe at about $9 billion. Foley formed Foley Trasimene Acquisition Corp. II and raised $1.3 billion in an initial public offering in August to seek acquisition opportunities.

That special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, will merge with Paysafe and become a publicly traded company called Paysafe Ltd. It will trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol “PSFE.” “Upon the formation and initial listing of Foley Trasimene, our Foley team initiated a diligent and thorough search process to source an appropriate partner, with the goal to announce a partnership prior to year end,” Foley said in a Dec. 7 news release. “We believe we can further enhance Paysafe’s growth trajectory through accelerated operational transformation and M&A, enabled by our delevered balance sheet,” he said. Foley formed another SPAC this year called Foley Trasimene Acquisition Corp. that raised $900 million with an IPO in May. But that company has not yet found an acquisition target.

Patriot approves $3 special dividend For the second year in a row, Patriot Transportation Holdings Inc. last week declared a special cash dividend of $3 a share. The Jacksonville-based trucking company had not paid

dividends before declaring a special dividend in December 2019. Patriot is paying the dividend despite a drop in sales and earnings during the pandemic. The company last week reported earnings of 8 cents a share for the fiscal year ended Sept. 30, down from 53 cents in fiscal 2019. The company had a net loss through the first ‌nine months of the fiscal year but earnings rose in the fourth quarter to 16 cents a share, 10 cents higher than the previous year. Revenue dropped 18% in the quarter to $21.4 million but Patriot reduced expenses as its business volume fell. Patriot reported earnings two days before announcing the dividend Dec. 4. In the company’s quarterly conference call, CEO Robert Sandlin said Patriot is in a strong financial position to withstand the pandemic. “I still believe that companies with a strong balance sheet and positive cash flows like Patriot should weather the storm but we believe there will be others that struggle due to a lack of cash and pending dramatic increases in risk insurance costs,” he said. Sandlin said Patriot had $16 million in cash on its balance sheet and no debt at the end of the fiscal year. The company said two days later the special dividend will cost about $10 million.

THE BASCH REPORT

MARK BASCH CONTRIBUTING WRITER

in the current year,” she said. Comparable-store sales at the company’s 660 Cracker Barrel restaurants dropped 16.4%, as COVID-19 restrictions on business openings continue to impact customer traffic. Cochran said Maple Street, with 35 company-owned and six franchised locations, is handling the restrictions well. “I remain pleased with their performance and how they’ve navigated through the pandemic, Cochran which has reinforced our confidence in the brand and its business model,” she said. “Their performance has been in line with our expectations and we’re looking forward to introducing this exciting brand to many new guests, and we remain confident that Maple Street will make a meaningful contribution to our results over the long term.” With sales down at Cracker Barrel stores, the company reported first-quarter adjusted earnings of 69 cents a share, down from $1.79 the previous year. Despite the lower results and continued pandemic uncertainty, Telsey Advisory Group analyst Bob Derrington upgraded his rating on Cracker Barrel from “market perform” to “outperform” after the

MBASCH@ JAXDAILYRECORD.COM