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Filtering the noise to deliver important energy sector updates OCTOBER 2026

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Energy Summaries is not a newspaper or tabloid, but a major voluntary communication project of Fleissen & Company, which is dedicated to harnessing and disseminating vital information about major developments within the energy industry on a monthly basis. This periodic compilation is purely for information and knowledge purposes, and its content should not in any way be mistaken for ﬁnancial, investment or transaction advice. Professional guidance and expert views MUST always be sought when commercial decisions or business choices are to be made.

Filtering the noise to deliver important energy sector updates OCTOBER 2026

Filtering the noise to deliver important energy sector updates

SEPTEMBER 2026

Filtering the noise to deliver important energy sector updates

JUNE 2026

JULY 2026

AUGUST 2026

MAY 2026

APRIL 2026

THIS MONTH AT A GLANCE

1.56m bpd

Crude output reached a 74-month high

37 blocks

Awarded in the 2025 licensing round

US$4.5bn

Energy commitments signed at NOG Energy Week

US$100+

Brent brie y crossed the threshold

Policy, investment and sustainability dynamics in Nigeria's energy transition agenda

Zero-DutyMobility EXECUTIVE BRIEFING

MARKET SIGNALS

The oil economy buffer

STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS

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Filtering the noise to deliver important energy sector updates

JANUARY 2026

FEBRUARY 2026

MARCH 2026

Home re ning absorbs global shock as prices reset

Nigeria lowers entry cost of clean public transport

Measuring the Invisible Compiled & distributed by

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Oil and gas operators convene in Abuja to turn emissions accounting into the price of market access.

Filtering the noise to deliver important energy sector updates DECEMBER 2025

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5% TO 0%

100,000

EV IMPORT DUTY

MASS TRANSIT BUS DUTY

CNG KITS IN FIRST PHASE

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SEPTEMBER 2025

OCTOBER 2025

NOVEMBER 2025

How coordinated reforms and cleaner energy Ini a ves are strengthening Nigeria's energy security, while advancing long-term sustainability

$60+ BILLION INVESTMENTS

10bscf/d BY 2027

Nigeria's Energy Infrastructure Boom Reﬁning expansion, gas infrastructure, and new con nental ﬁnancing reshape the country's energy landscape

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NNPC unveils new gas master plan

12bscf/d BY 2030

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Aradel completes acquisition of 40% equity interest in ND Western

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Nigeria eyes $20bn investments from 70 priority gas projects

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FG unveils monitoring system for CNG vehicles

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REA's $1.6bn mini-grid fund to accelerate clean energy access for rural communities

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Nigeria-China investments, energy deals hit $20 billion

FIRST E&P achieves 96% gas- are reduction, pledges net-zero by 2045

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Nigeria launches rst ever are gas digital infrastructure project

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Filtering out the noise to deliver important energy sector updates MAY 2025

JUNE 2025

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Aradel’s new gas supply deal with NLNG

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Nigeria’s AutoCNG sector attracts $491mn investment in 12 months

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Fleissen & Company is a leading energy infrastructure advisory firm that delivers integrated technical and strategic solutions across the oil and gas, power, and broader energy sectors. The firm combines deep engineering expertise with regulatory insight to support clients in addressing complex operational challenges, enhancing sustainability, and unlocking value across the energy value chain. Fleissen specialises in hydrocarbon measurement, gas utilisation, emissions accounting, and petrochemical downstream opportunity assessments. The company is pivotal in advancing Nigeria’s energy transition by supporting flare gas commercialisation, compressed natural gas (CNG) adoption, and greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction initiatives. In addition to its technical advisory work, Fleissen & Company has two dedicated subsidiaries: Fleissen Events Ltd, which leads its industry convenings, and Fleissen Energy Ltd, which focuses on project development and energy solutions. Through Fleissen Events Ltd, the firm is a recognised convener of high-impact industry dialogues, including the Nigeria Hydrocarbon Measurement Conference (NiHMEC) and the Gas Safety Conference (GSC), which bring together regulators, operators, and global experts to drive innovation, policy alignment, and operational excellence in the energy sector.

THE TEAM

Project Lead Sunday Kanshio, PhD +2349098614828 s.kanshio@ﬂeissen.com

Editorial Consultant Yange Ikyaa

Project Support Oﬃcer Aisha Tukur Diggi

October 2026

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October 2026

AVERAGE LPG PRICE // SEPTEMBER 2026

COMPANY

AVERAGE LPG PRICE // SEPTEMBER 2026

N/TONNE

COMPANY

N/TONNE

COMPANY

N/TONNE

22,536,364 NIPCO 19,600,000 PPMC Apapa 20,300,000 STOCKGAP PANOCEAN (OFFTAKER) 20,890,000

MATRIX RAIN OIL ARDOVA AP NAVGAS

21,857,143 19,933,333 21,263,158 22,146,154

DANGOTE KHL

20,335,294 22,125,000

Depot Owners

Source: lpginnigeria.com

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Producers

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October 2026

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October 2026

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October 2026

Executive Proﬁles in Energy Governance corporate partner Recently, the Kogi State House of Assembly issued a statement commending the Director General and Chief Executive Oﬃcer of the Energy Commission of Nigeria (ECN), Dr Mustapha Abdullahi, pointing out his contributions to the development of the state and the country.

bridge the existing gap between its natural energy resources and a skilled workforce in an effort to achieve sustainable development and clean energy access across the country. Conceived, designed and agged off by ECN under the leadership of Dr. Abdullahi, it is modelled after India's renowned Barefoot Hon Suleiman Abdulrazak, who College to provide practical moved the motion on the oor vocational training in solar and of the house, speci cally men- renewable energy within Dr. Mustapha Abdullahi tioned the establishment of the Nigeria. DG, Energy Commission of Nigeria Barefoot Renewable Energy From its groundbreaking cereCollege, which was facilitated cal labor needs in the mony in August 2024 to its offiby Dr. Abdullahi, and is siturenewable energy sector. cial commissioning in August ated within the Con uence - Address the historical chal2026, ECN drove the project University of Science and lenge of turning Nigeria's Technology (CUSTECH), Osara. with total commitment and abundant sunlight and natudedication. The aim is to bridge ral energy endowments the gap between non-formal, The lawmaker described Dr. into actual megawatts of hands-on technical eld trainAbdullahi as a nation-builder, power and productive ing and university-backed whose leadership, patriotism employment. research, thereby building a and commitment to commu- Use inclusive, hands-on nity development had yielded skilled local workforce for vocational training (modtangible bene ts to Kogi State. Nigeria's clean energy transieled after India's Barefoot He also urged the House to for- tion. College) to equip rural popumally recognise the vision and lations and women with the The Barefoot Renewable efforts of the ECM boss in capacity to manage and Energy College speci cally advancing renewable energy maintain local clean energy aims to help Nigeria achieve development and education systems. the following goals: within the state and across - Support national progress Nigeria. toward affordable electricity - Train local technicians and access, local technological youth in practical skills, The Barefoot Renewable innovation, and long-term such as solar PV installation, Energy College (BARECKS) has climate targets like net-zero battery storage, and minibeen carefully planned and emissions. grids, in order to meet critiestablished to help Nigeria

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October 2026

ENERGY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF · NIGERIA · SEPTEMBER 2026 ENERGY SUMMARIES · OCTOBER 2026 · ISSUE NO. 10 · VOL. 2 A curated monthly digest of Nigeria's oil, gas, power, and renewable energy landscape.

CONTENTS 01 Upstream Exploration and Production.....8 items 02 Reﬁning and Downstream......................9 items 03 Natural Gas Development........................12 items 04 Power Sector Reform.............................13 items 05 Renewable Energy and Clean Transition......7 items 06 Clean Mobility..........................................6 items 07 Trade and International Markets..............8 items 08 Policy, Regulation and Governance........9 items 09 Corporate News and Appointments.........8 items

Sources: Sources: BusinessDay · Punch · Vanguard · ThisDay · Channels TV · Reuters · The Nation · DailyTrust · Daily Post · Business Insider Africa · Petroleum Price · The Cable · The Guardian · NNPC · The Sun · Business Post · New Telegraph · State House | September 1 to September 30, 2026

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October 2026

UPSTREAM EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION

August crude output held at the OPEC quota

SUBSECTOR INSIGHT August production rose 0.4 per cent to 1,677,777 barrels per day of crude and condensate, with crude alone at 1,500,190 barrels per day against the 1.5 million OPEC quota, met for a fourth month, after the single buoy mooring problem at Erha that cut July output was resolved; daily output ranged from 1.64 million to 1.71 million barrels per day. OPEC's September report recorded Nigeria at 1.573 million barrels per day on secondary sources, and the seven-country OPEC+ group held October output at September levels. The NUPRC will open the 2026 licensing round in early October with the 13 blocks left unlicensed in 2025 plus new acreage, has given holders of 2020, 2022/2023 and 2024 awards until October 31 to show work or face revocation, and Minister Lokpobiri asked operators to reach FID within six months. Dangote's WAEP contracted three jack-up rigs for OMLs 71 and 72, Savannah brought Uquo-13 on stream at about 50 MMSCFD, Mermaid Maritime set up a Nigerian subsea services joint venture with Marine Platforms, and OML 30 communities gave Heritage Energy a two-week ultimatum.

August Oil Output Edges Up to 1.68 Million bpd

NUPRC to Open 2026 Licensing Round in Early October

Crude oil and condensate production averaged 1,677,777 barrels per day in August 2026, up 6,887 barrels per day or 0.4 per cent from 1,670,890 in July, the NUPRC reported on September 13. Crude alone averaged 1,500,190 barrels per day, meeting the 1.5 million barrels per day OPEC quota for the fourth consecutive month, and daily output ranged between 1.64 million and 1.71 million barrels per day. The commission attributed

The 2026 licensing round will launch in early October, oﬀering the 13 blocks left unlicensed from the 2025 exercise together with new deepwater, shallow-water and possibly frontier onshore acreage, NUPRC Chief Executive Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan said in an interview with S&P Global. The 2025 round oﬀered 50 assets and awarded 37 after 200 bids from 143 companies. Eyesan said rounds will now be held at least annually, with a six-toseven-month turnaround, and that each round's concessions are expected to add about 300,000 barrels per day within three years. An Indonesian delegation

the gain to the resolution of the single buoy mooring problem at the Erha ﬁeld that had cut July output. Bonny led the terminals at 320.04 thousand barrels per day, followed by Forcados at 317.40, Qua Iboe at 171.72, Escravos at 131.71 and Bonga at 92.50. The 2026 budget assumes 1.84 million barrels per day. (Channels Television, September 13, 2026 / ThisDay, September 14, 2026)

OPEC's Secondary Sources Put Nigeria Above Its Quota Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman decided at a virtual meeting on September 6 to keep their October required production at September levels, a combined 31.01 million

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barrels per day, pausing after four monthly increases of 188,000 barrels per day. The group meets again on October 4. Nigeria is not among the seven and its quota remains 1.5 million barrels per day.

OPEC's September Monthly Oil Market Report recorded Nigeria's August crude output at 1.500 million barrels per day by direct communication, down 5,000 barrels per day from July, and at 1.573

including Pertamina's upstream business development team met the commission in Abuja to discuss producing assets, near-production projects and the coming round; Eyesan told them: "We have very aggressive targets, 3 million barrels per day by 2030, and today we are at 1.6, 1.7." Indonesia's ambassador, Bambang Suharto, separately met Minister of State Heineken Lokpobiri to seek Indonesian investment in Nigerian oil and gas. (TheCable, September 7, 2026 / ThisDay, September 21, 2026 / The Sun, September 8, 2026)

million barrels per day by secondary sources, up from 1.537 million in July. (Nairametrics, September 6, 2026 / BusinessDay, September 11, 2026)

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October 2026

Recent Licence Awardees Have Until October 31 to Show Work

Lokpobiri Wants Investment Decisions Within Six Months

Holders of Petroleum Prospecting Licences from the 2020 marginal ﬁeld round, the 2022/2023 mini bid round and the 2024 licensing round have until October 31, 2026 to show work on their acreage, under circular NUPRC/1127/Vol.13/55 dated September 14 and signed by Chief Executive Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan. The commission cited sections 77, 78, 88, 96 and 97 of the Petroleum Industry Act 2021 and listed

Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil) Heineken Lokpobiri told operators at the Ima gas signing in Abuja on September 23 that ﬁnal investment decisions should take no more than six months, and said one company has committed to reach FID in October or November. "I don't see the reason why it would take you years to be able to get to FID," he said, citing renewed conﬁdence from Nigerian commercial banks.

refusal of extension, compulsory relinquishment, calling in work performance security and revocation proceedings as the consequences of nonperformance. The circular states that "an acreage is held to be worked, and any acreage that is not worked within its term returns to the federal government". (ThisDay, September 19, 2026 / Nairametrics, September 19, 2026)

Receiving a Congolese ministerial delegation on September 22, Lokpobiri said indigenous companies now account for 60 per cent of Nigeria's crude production, against a past position in which international oil companies held about 90 per cent, and that 20 to 30 competent Nigerian oilﬁeld service companies now operate. (BusinessDay, September 23, 2026 / ThisDay, September 22, 2026)

Dangote's WAEP Contracts Three Rigs for OMLs 71 and 72 West African Exploration and Production, the Dangote Group's upstream company, has contracted three jack-up rigs for a drilling campaign on OMLs 71 and 72 due to begin in December 2026, Managing Director Cecilia Ajayi said at Africa Oil Week in Accra. The shallow-water blocks,

about 22 kilometres from the Bonny terminal, hold more than 1.6 billion barrels of oil in place and about 1.9 trillion cubic feet of gas. WAEP holds a 45 per cent working interest, with NNPC holding the balance. Production resumed in December 2025 at 4,500 barrels per

day from the Kalaekule ﬁeld on OML 72, and the company plans gas monetisation infrastructure and a multiclient crude evacuation terminal within 24 months. In oﬀshore services, Thailand's Mermaid Maritime has set up Mermaid Subsea Services

Limited with Marine Platforms Limited, which holds 51 per cent, to work for TotalEnergies Nigeria and other operators within local content rules, funded from internal resources. (ThisDay, September 8, 2026 / Oﬀshore Energy, September 29, 2026)

Savannah Brings Uquo-13 On Stream at About 50 MMSCFD Savannah Energy's Uquo-13 well in Akwa Ibom achieved ﬁrst gas and is on stream after testing at about 50 MMSCFD, and the Uquo South well spudded in early August found gas in most of its target reservoirs,

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the company said in results for the seven months to July 31. Revenue rose 10 per cent to US$160.6 million, cash collections 13 per cent to US$247.9 million and trade receivables fell 22 per cent

to US$394.6 million; net debt stood at US$672.0 million. Group production averaged 16.3 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, with Stubb Creek above 5,000 barrels per day in July, and full-year

guidance was kept at 18 to 20 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day. (BusinessDay, September 2, 2026 / ThisDay, September 17, 2026)

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October 2026

OML 30 Communities Give Heritage Energy Two Weeks The OML 30 Flow Stations PresidentsGeneral Forum, representing Delta State communities including Evwreni,

Aﬁesere, Kokori, Uzere and Olomoro, gave Heritage Energy Operational Services two weeks to settle contractor debts, pay

traditional rulers' stipends, employ residents and award scoped host community trust projects, warning of

protests across OML 30 facilities. (ThisDay, September 25, 2026)

REFINING AND DOWNSTREAM Dangote opens its share oﬀer as pump prices rise

SUBSECTOR INSIGHT The Dangote refinery opened a N2.15 trillion initial public offering of 4.1 billion shares at N525 on September 14, closing October 13, after reporting first-half profit of US$1.82 billion and a US$570 million cut in debt; Aliko Dangote said on September 29 that demand was "enormous". In August the refinery ran at 105.21 per cent of nameplate and supplied about 71 per cent of petrol receipts as imports fell 26 per cent to 14.6 million litres a day. Its gantry prices tracked crude: diesel up N100 to N1,850 per litre from September 4, petrol up N85 to N1,350 from September 12 and then cut to N1,325 from September 21, with pumps at N1,395 to N1,500 and fewer than 10 Lagos depots holding petrol in mid-month. The NMDPRA said it does not fix pump prices and approved 830,000 tonnes of fourth-quarter imports, and on September 28 a Federal High Court in Abuja ordered it to keep licensing three importers, ahead of the refinery's own suit in Lagos on October 7. Refinery owners asked for import curbs after first-quarter crude deliveries of 28.5 million of the 61.9 million barrels allocated, and cooking gas rose to N1,300 per kilogramme in Lagos.

Dangote Refinery Opens Its N2.15 Trillion Share Offer How the offer money will be spent N billion, from the offer documents

Nairametrics, September 9, 2026. The three lines total N2.111 trillion of the N2.15 trillion oﬀer.

Dangote Petroleum Reﬁnery and Petrochemicals opened its initial public oﬀering of 4.1 billion ordinary shares at N525 per share on

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September 14, seeking about N2.15 trillion, or US$1.63 billion at N1,320.83 per dollar, with the oﬀer closing on October 13 and listing on the

Nigerian Exchange expected in November. The SEC's approval was reported on September 5 and the oﬀer documents were signed at Eko Hotels, Lagos on September 7, with a US$400 million subscription commitment in place. The minimum subscription is 10 shares, or N5,250, and the company may allot up to 30 per cent more shares if the oﬀer is oversubscribed, subject to SEC approval; Vetiva Advisory Services is lead adviser. Proceeds are earmarked for utilities and infrastructure (N841 billion), process units

(N686.5 billion) and construction and expansion (N583.5 billion) to raise capacity from 700,000 to 1.4 million barrels per day by the first quarter of 2029. The company reported a first-half profit of US$1.82 billion on revenue of US$13.91 billion after a loss of US$475.8 million in 2025. (Reuters via CNBC Africa, September 7, 2026 / Nairametrics, September 9, 2026)

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October 2026

Dangote Says Demand for the Offer Is "Enormous" Aliko Dangote told reporters in Nairobi on September 29 that demand for the offer was "enormous", without giving subscription figures. The company is targeting up to 10 million Nigerian investors and said applications from small investors would be allotted first; 40 approved channels were listed on the offer website by September 11, up from 32 when the list was first published: 20 banks, 17 fintechs, two mobile money platforms and NGX Invest. The offer documents show debt reduced from US$6.24 billion at the end of 2025 to US$5.67 billion at the end of June 2026, a cut of

US$570 million, ThisDay reported. Dangote said the group plans a listing outside Africa, most likely in the United States, after the expansion to 1.4 million barrels per day in the ﬁrst quarter of 2029, and Chief Financial Oﬃcer Bruce Tanner told Semafor the company would seek international secondary listings. (Reuters via CNBC Africa, September 29, 2026 / ThisDay, September 10, 2026 / Punch, September 10, 2026 / Vanguard, September 15, 2026 / Nairametrics, September 22, 2026)

Dangote Raises Diesel by N100 to N1,850 per Litre The reﬁnery raised its diesel gantry price from N1,750 to N1,850 per litre from midnight on September 4, a 5.7 per cent increase that followed a rise from N1,670 to N1,750 in late August, a combined N180 across the two moves. Brent was quoted at US$97.29 on September 3. Lagos depot diesel moved to N1,790 to

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N1,830 in the week of the change and stood at about N1,855 by September 14, against a MEMAN landing cost of N1,917.82 per litre on September 10. The gantry price was unchanged at N1,850 on September 22, when the spot landed cost was N1,933.56. (Legit.ng, September 3 and 22, 2026 / BusinessDay, September 4, 2026)

Dangote Raises Petrol to N1,350, Then Cuts to N1,325 The Dangote reﬁnery raised its petrol gantry price from N1,265 to N1,350 per litre with eﬀect from September 12, an increase of N85 or 6.7 per cent as Brent traded above US$100, and lifted its coastal price from N1,669,543 to N1,783,530 per tonne. The Oil and Gas Service Providers Association put the cumulative increase since August 21 at N185 per litre, or 15.9 per cent. A N25 cut to N1,325

followed from September 21 after crude fell on prospects of talks between the United States and Iran. Lagos depots repriced to N1,325 to N1,332 by September 23, but Abuja pumps stayed at N1,395 to N1,430 as marketers sold stock bought at the higher price. (Vanguard, September 13, 22 and 23, 2026 / Legit.ng, September 21, 2026)

NMDPRA Says It Does Not Fix Pump Prices With petrol selling at N1,430 in Abuja, N1,460 in Kano, N1,500 in Benin and N1,400 in Lagos, the NMDPRA said in a statement on September 19 that it "does not ﬁx pump prices or issue administrative price templates", citing section 205(1) of the Petroleum Industry Act, which bases wholesale and retail prices on unrestricted free market conditions, with intervention reserved for a declared market failure. The authority said it would run joint surveillance with the

Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission on price gouging, collusion, underdispensing and product quality, and joint operations with the Nigeria Customs Service against smuggling, and described itself as "fully sensitive to the pressure this has placed on households, transport workers, and businesses". (BusinessDay, September 19, 2026 / ThisDay, September 20, 2026)

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October 2026

Fewer Than 10 Lagos Depots Hold Petrol in Mid-September

NMDPRA Approves 830,000 Tonnes of Q4 Petrol Imports

Fewer than 10 Lagos depots held petrol stock on September 16 while more than 30 depots and jetties stood empty, Petroleumprice.ng reported, putting the landing cost at N1,420 per litre as replacement costs rose with crude; Pinnacle, MRS Tincan, Integrated, A.A. Rano, Ascon, Emadeb, Aiteo and Sahara were among the depots with limited stock. The Petroleum Products

The NMDPRA approved import permits for 830,000 metric tonnes of petrol for the fourth quarter of 2026 to Matrix Energy, A.A. Rano, AYM Shafa, NIPCO, Pinnacle Oil and Bono Energy, the same six marketers licensed for the third quarter, spokesperson George Ene-Ita confirmed, saying the permits were approved "to ensure there're no supply gaps heading into the critical end-of-year period". Quarterly approvals have risen from 180,000 tonnes in the first quarter to 720,000 in the second and more than 800,000 in the third. The approvals came while the Dangote refinery's N100 billion suit against import licences awaited hearing at

Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria asked the Federal Government and NNPC on September 17 to restart the state-owned reﬁneries, reporting petrol at N1,400 to N1,500 per litre in some locations and diesel above N2,000, with Brent at about US$105.83 on September 16. (Petroleumprice.ng, September 16, 2026 / Punch, September 18, 2026)

Court Orders NMDPRA to Keep Licensing Matrix, A.A. Rano and AYM Shafa Justice Inyang Ekwo of the Federal High Court, Abuja held on September 28 that the NMDPRA's refusal to issue and renew petroleum product import licences for Matrix Energy, A.A. Rano and AYM Shafa was in "direct noncompliance" with the Petroleum Industry Act, declared its actions on the licences null and void, and ordered it to continue to grant, extend, renew or reissue their licences where the companies meet the statutory requirements. The three marketers

Page 11

ﬁled the suit in June; all three are among the six that received fourthquarter import permits. The Dangote reﬁnery is not a party to the case. Its own N100 billion suit against the Attorney-General of the Federation over import licences, in which the three marketers have applied to be joined, is before the Federal High Court, Lagos and adjourned to October 7. (TheCable, September 28, 2026 / Premium Times, September 28, 2026)

the Federal High Court, Lagos on October 7. Domestic refineries supplied 76.7 per cent of petrol in the first quarter of 2026. The Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria asked the Federal Government earlier in the month to restrict product imports, citing NUPRC data for the first quarter in which 28.5 million of the 61.9 million barrels allocated to domestic refineries were delivered. (Premium Times, September 23 and 28, 2026 / Vanguard, September 24, 2026 / Punch, September 3, 2026 / Nairametrics, September 4, 2026)

Petrol Imports Fall 26% in August Petrol imports fell 26 per cent to 14.6 million litres a day in August from 19.7 million in July and diesel imports to 1.3 million litres a day from 7.9 million, while domestic petrol receipts rose 39 per cent to 35.9 million litres a day, according to the NMDPRA's August factsheet. Total petrol receipts rose 11 per cent to 50.5 million litres a day, of which the Dangote reﬁnery supplied about 71 per cent. The reﬁnery ran at 105.21 per cent of its 700,000 barrels per day nameplate, a throughput of 736,470

barrels per day against 497,000 in July, producing 41.94 million litres of petrol and 18.01 million litres of diesel a day, and closed August with 630.9 million litres of products in stock, 360.4 million of it petrol. Domestic reﬁneries received 683,000 barrels of crude a day, up 17 per cent; the Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna reﬁneries recorded no production. (Nairametrics, September 24, 2026 / Punch, September 24 and 27, 2026)

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October 2026

Cooking Gas Rises to N1,300 per Kilogramme in Lagos Lagos accredited LPG plants raised prices to N1,300 per kilogramme on September 16 from N1,200 in August, an 8.3 per cent rise, with smaller plants at N1,350 to N1,400; Legit.ng reported retail prices of up to N1,600, putting a 12.5 kilogramme reﬁll at about N20,000. Twenty-tonne depot prices ranged from N19.9 million to N22.7 million. NALPGAM President Inyang Edu cited replacement cost at the depots and the conﬂict in

the Gulf. The rise followed a July in which domestic LPG supply reached a record 5,332 tonnes a day, 82 per cent from domestic sources led by NLNG at 2,031 tonnes a day and the Dangote reﬁnery at 829, and Lagos retail prices had fallen to N1,235 per kilogramme, according to the NMDPRA's July factsheet. (Vanguard, September 17, 2026 / ThisDay, September 8, 2026)

Jet Fuel Shortage Delays Flights at Abuja Air Peace attributed delays and cancellations at Abuja on September 27 to the unavailability of Jet A1, which it said also aﬀected other airlines, alongside weather and a restriction at Maiduguri airport. The NMDPRA's August factsheet recorded aviation fuel production of 24.48 million litres a day, of which 21.30 million litres a day were exported. Aliko Dangote said on

September 14 that the reﬁnery's jet fuel supply to Europe for August and September was sold out and that stock for Nigeria was reserved, with S&P Global reporting the reﬁnery as Europe's largest jet fuel supplier for a second month. (Nairametrics, September 27, 2026 / Premium Times, September 27, 2026)

Engineering for the 1.4 Million bpd Expansion Is Nearly Done Basic engineering for the expansion of the Lekki reﬁnery to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2029 is complete and detailed engineering almost concluded, with most equipment ordered, major contracts signed and advance payments

made, Group Vice President Devakumar Edwin told journalists touring the plant on September 18. The workforce inside the reﬁnery will roughly double, and the expansion is expected to cost slightly less than the

ﬁrst phase because the quarry, welding-gas plant, port and developed land are already in place. The group has bought 4,000 more pieces of construction equipment, taking its ﬂeet to about 6,500 after an initial 2,563, having chosen to

build with its own equipment after contractors said they lacked the capacity for the main buildings. (Premium Times, September 18, 2026 / Punch, September 21, 2026)

NATURAL GAS DEVELOPMENT Ima reaches FID and the regulator sets a 2028 market date

SUBSECTOR INSIGHT TotalEnergies and AMNI took the final investment decision on the Ima field in OMLs 112 and 117 on September 23, a US$800 million development by the Presidency's account with a 350 MMSCFD plateau from 2028 and about one-third of the feed gas for NLNG's Train 7, due to start up by the end of 2027 with the plant at 82 to 83 per cent. The NMDPRA set September 2028 as the target for a willing-buyer, willing-seller domestic market, with distribution licences due in the fourth quarter. NUPRC data showed exports up 19.25 per cent to 733,778 MMSCF in January to August, domestic sales of 516,780 MMSCF and August flaring at 7.48 per cent, the highest monthly rate since October 2025, while the Auditor-General queried N51.09 billion of penalty remittances. The MDGIF reported N1.6 trillion of private investment against N671 billion of public funds, NIPCO is studying a floating LNG project of more than US$3 billion, the Dangote Group put a US$8 billion LNG plant into its 2030 plan without naming a site, a Dutch-backed flare-to-power project at Agbada-2 in OML 17 gained federal support and AKK gas is to fuel a 50MW plant for Abuja's Idu industrial estate. UTM announced no FID on its floating LNG project in the month.

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Fleissen & Company

October 2026

TotalEnergies and AMNI Take FID on the US$800m Ima Gas Field TotalEnergies EP Nigeria and AMNI International signed the final investment decision for the Ima gas field on September 23 in Abuja, a development the Presidency and NNPC valued at US$800 million. The field, discovered in 1973 in shallow water about 8 kilometres off Bonny Island and straddling OMLs 112 and 117, will be produced from a single platform powered from shore through a 22 kilometre pipeline to the NLNG plant; AMNI holds 60 per cent and TotalEnergies 40 per cent as operator.

TotalEnergies put the plateau at 350 MMSCFD from start-up in 2028, supplying about one-third of the gas required by Train 7; the Presidency's statement cited 300 MMSCFD at peak. Nigerian ﬁnancial institutions arranged 77 per cent of the ﬁnancing, and presidential spokesman Bayo Onanuga called it the fourth major gas FID of the administration after Iseni, Ubeta and HI. (TotalEnergies statement, September 23, 2026 / ThisDay, September 24, 2026)

NMDPRA Sets September 2028 for a Willing-Buyer, Willing-Seller Gas Market Domestic gas pricing will move fully to a willingbuyer, willing-seller basis within 24 months "at best", NMDPRA Chief Executive Rabiu Umar said at the Gas Market Maturity Workshop held under the Decade of Gas initiative in Abuja on September 24, giving September 2028 as the target. Gas distribution licences are expected in the fourth quarter of 2026. The authority listed eight maturity indicators: supply availability and diversity, buyer and seller quality and quantity, transport

Page 13

infrastructure access, contract strength, payment reliability, delivery obligations, market information and credible price signals. Decade of Gas coordinator Ed Ubong counted 16 infrastructure projects and more than 60 demand projects against a supply target of 12,600 MMSCFD by 2030; gas to power is currently priced at US$2.18 per million British thermal units. (TheCable, September 25, 2026 / Tribune, September 25, 2026)

NLNG Expects Train 7 to Start Up by the End of 2027 Nigeria LNG expects its US$10 billion Train 7 to start up by the end of 2027, raising capacity from 22 to 30 million tonnes a year, Managing Director Adeleye Falade said at Gastech in Bangkok. The plant is running at 82 to 83 per cent of capacity and needs about 90 per cent to lift the force majeure declared after the 2022 ﬂoods. "We still have a delta of about 15 per cent that we need to close. Operationally, we are able to do that, but our biggest

constraint is gas supply," Falade said. Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas) Ekperikpe Ekpo met Daewoo E&C Nigeria on the Train 7 schedule at the same event and agreed with Libya's oil minister to develop a memorandum of understanding on a Nigeria to Libya gas pipeline. (Reuters via CNBC Africa, September 15, 2026 / ThisDay, September 22, 2026)

Gas Exports Rise 19.25% in the First Eight Months Nigeria exported 733,778 MMSCF of gas between January and August 2026, up 118,408 MMSCF or 19.25 per cent on the same period of 2025, with August exports of 92,410.74 MMSCF against 65,732.24 a year earlier, according to NUPRC data. Production over the eight months was 1.92 million MMSCF, split almost evenly between associated and nonassociated gas, with domestic sales of 516,780 MMSCF and utilisation of 92.4 per cent.

August ﬂaring rose to 18,350.55 MMSCF, 7.48 per cent of the 245,439.13 MMSCF produced, up 17.7 per cent on July and the highest monthly rate since October 2025. Central Bank balance of payments data put gas export earnings at US$6.22 billion in the ﬁrst half, up 4.2 per cent, with US$3.63 billion in the second quarter. (Nairametrics, September 17 and 18, 2026 / Sweetcrude Reports, September 20, 2026)

Fleissen & Company

October 2026

NUPRC Gives Flare-Site Awardees a Year to Show Progress or Lose the Award Twenty-seven of the 43 flare sites identified for award under the Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme have been awarded, and each awardee is evaluated one year after award, NUPRC Chief Executive Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan told Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas) Ekperikpe Ekpo during a working visit on September 8. "Where there is insufficient progress, the Commission

will take appropriate regulatory action, including revocation of the award where necessary," she said. The commission put proven gas reserves above 215 trillion cubic feet with an estimated resource base of about 600 trillion cubic feet, and Ekpo tied the programme to the 2030 target of ending routine ﬂaring. (NUPRC, September 9, 2026 / Reuters via CNBC Africa, September 10, 2026)

NNPC Completes Pre-Commissioning of OB3's River Niger Crossing NNPC's July 2026 monthly report recorded that precommissioning of the OB3 pipeline's River Niger crossing was completed in readiness for ﬁrst gas, and that construction and installation works on the Ajaokuta-KadunaKano pipeline are at an advanced stage to deliver early gas to Abuja in 2026. Pipeline availability for the month was 100 per cent on OB3 and

Page 14

95 per cent on AKK. The 130 kilometre OB3 line linking Obiafu-Obrikom to Oben is designed for 2,000 MMSCFD. NNPC reported gas production of 7,489 MMSCFD in July, down 4.5 per cent from June, and gas sales of 4,581 MMSCFD. (Premium Times, September 2, 2026 / Parrot Nigeria, September 3, 2026)

MDGIF Says N671bn of Public Money Drew N1.6trn of Private Investment The Midstream and Downstream Gas Infrastructure Fund has deployed N671 billion and attracted N1.6 trillion of private investment over 20 months, a multiplier of 2.4, across 31 projects and 205 infrastructure assets that will add 475 MMSCFD of delivery capacity when fully operational, Elvis Duruji said on behalf of Executive Director Oluwole Adama at the Association of Energy Correspondents conference in Abuja on September 24. The portfolio includes four ﬂare-out projects with 444

MMSCFD of capacity, a 5 MMSCFD mini-LNG plant by Topline Limited in Delta State, 20 CNG mother stations and more than 80 daughter stations, with 75 more ﬁnanced through a leasing company. Duruji put current domestic supply at about 1,900 MMSCFD. NUPRC said at the same event that it has approved more than US$57 billion of ﬁeld development plans since 2024. (Tribune, September 24, 2026 / BusinessDay, September 25, 2026)

Auditor-General Queries N51.09bn of Flare Penalty Remittances The Auditor-General of the Federation's 2023/2024 report on non-compliance and internal control weaknesses flagged about N94.4 billion of issues at the Midstream and Downstream Gas Infrastructure Fund, of which about N51.09 billion relates to gas flare penalties reported by NUPRC for 2023 and 2024 but not traced to the fund's account. The variances "reflect timing and reconciliation across the multi-agency Federation Account channel

through which NUPRC collects and remits these funds, not unaccounted revenue", NMDPRA Director of Public Aﬀairs George Ene-Ita said, noting that the fund receives statutory allocations through FAAC under section 52 of the Petroleum Industry Act and has asked the Auditor-General to review the FAAC records. (Nairametrics, September 8, 2026 / Guardian, September 9, 2026)

Fleissen & Company

October 2026

Nigeria Targets 10,000 MMSCFD of Gas in 2027, NNPC Tells Gastech Nigeria holds 215 trillion cubic feet of proven gas reserves with an ambition to exceed 600 trillion cubic feet, and targets production of 10,000 MMSCFD in 2027 and 12,000 MMSCFD by 2030, NNPC's Executive Vice President for Gas, Power and New Energy, Olalekan Ogunleye, told the Gastech conference in Bangkok; NLNG has shipped more than 6,000 cargoes since 1999. "Gas development and monetisation from Nigeria's

standpoint is a purely commercial play," he said. Ogunleye said the company is implementing its Gas Master Plan within the framework of the Petroleum Industry Act and the Decade of Gas, and cited NLNG's Trains 1 to 6, with capacity of 22 million tonnes a year, as Nigeria's record as a supplier. (NNPC, September 14, 2026 / Punch, September 14, 2026)

NIPCO Studies a Floating LNG Project of Over US$3bn NIPCO Group plans to enter LNG with a ﬂoating liquefaction project of about 3 million tonnes a year requiring more than US$3 billion of investment, sited in the Escravos area of Delta State or in Akwa Ibom, NIPCO Gas Managing Director Nagendra Verma told journalists in Abuja on September 24. The company has evaluated the project for six to nine months and is carrying out preliminary technical, commercial and feasibility

assessments. The project depends on the feasibility study, which NIPCO expects to complete within months, regulatory approvals and a final investment decision; no partners, gas suppliers or dates were given. UTM Offshore, which in August targeted September for an FID on its Yoho floating LNG project, announced no decision in the month. (Punch, September 24, 2026 / Nairametrics, September 25, 2026)

Dutch Firm Wins Federal Backing for Flare-to-Power Project at Agbada-2 Energy Ventures BV, parent of Africa Gas Technology Company, plans to convert about 5 MMSCFD of gas ﬂared for more than 60 years at the Agbada-2 site in OML 17, Rivers State, into electricity and LPG, with Heirs Energies, which operates the block in joint venture with NNPC, supplying the gas. Chief Executive Herbert Okibe led a Dutch delegation to the site and to the Port Harcourt Electricity Distribution Company, whose board approved an approach to NERC for a

Page 15

permit. The Bureau of Public Enterprises and the Ministry of Power have expressed support for the project, which would use modular FlareOut units designed by the Netherlands' FB Group to serve about 80,000 connections, with Dutch government ﬁnance and MDGIF support. (Vanguard, September 21, 2026 / Brand Impact, September 26, 2026 / ThisDay, September 29, 2026)

AKK Gas to Fuel a 50MW Plant for Abuja's Idu Industrial Cluster Welbeck Electricity Distribution broke ground at Zuba on September 17 on a 50MW project for the Idu Industrial Estate in Abuja: a ﬁrst 10MW phase near the AjaokutaKaduna-Kano gas pipeline at Zuba, due by December 2026 and connected to the estate by a 33kV line, and 40MW to be built within the estate once the pipeline is extended to it, Managing Director

Afolabi Aiyela said. Aiyela put the estate's potential demand at 300MW to 400MW. The Nation reported the project cost at N50 billion; Minister of State for Industry John Owan Enoh and Minister of Power Joseph Tegbe attended the ceremony. (BusinessDay, September 17, 2026 / ThisDay, September 18, 2026 / The

Fleissen & Company

October 2026

THE STATE OF THE DOMESTIC GAS MARKET IN NIGERIA Twenty-four months to a free market, and what the volumes say

Domestic Gas: The Regulator Has Set a Date, and the Meter Has 24 Months to Be Ready The NMDPRA has given September 2028 as the point at which domestic gas trades on a willing-buyer , willingseller basis. The same month's NUPRC data show where the gas went in 2026: mostly abroad and back into the ﬁeld, with ﬂaring rising.

Sept 2028

733,778

7.48%

Where Nigeria's gas went, January to August 2026 (share of the 1,907,890 MMSCF accounted for in NUPRC totals) Exported 38.5%

Used in the ﬁeld 27.6%

Flared 6.9%

Sold domestically 27.1%

Computed from NUPRC totals reported on September 18: exports 733,778 MMSCF, ﬁeld utilisation 525,768, domestic sales 516,780 , ﬂared 131,564. Domestic sales ran at about 2,100 MMSCFD against the Decade of Gas supply target of 12,600 MMSCFD by 2030.

Export demand is pulling ﬁrst.

The domestic market is being built to a timetable.

The measured volume is the market.

A market is declared mature when its volumes are agreed. NiHMEC 2026: THE 6TH NIGERIA HYDROCARBON MEASUREMENT CONFERENCE. FINAL CALL

Federal Palace Hotel, Victoria Island, Lagos. Main conference October 6 to 8, 2026; masterclasses October 4 to 5: Practical GHG Emission Accounting and Reporting (N800,000) and Practical Natural Gas Accounting (N600,000), each built in Excel from blank sheets and inclusive of full conference registration. Enquiries: NiHMEC Secretariat, Fleissen Events Limited, info@nihmec.com, www.nihmec.com.

Page 16

Fleissen & Company

October 2026

POWER SECTOR REFORM Legacy debt payments continue and the minister rules out a tariﬀ rise

SUBSECTOR INSIGHT The Federal Government signed settlement agreements for the N728.979 billion Series 2 power bond with 11 generation companies on September 14, taking the amount raised to N1.23 trillion against about N3.3 trillion of verified legacy claims, and NERC's Order NERC/2026/062A requires debt-free DisCos to put 50 per cent, and from February 60 per cent, of earned non-administrative operating expenditure into capital works. Minister Joseph Tegbe ruled out a tariff increase at his 100-day briefing and on September 30 opened talks with DisCos on 24-hour Energy Zones. NERC put the subsidy at N321.26 billion in the second quarter after N1,928.31 billion in 2025. Available generation reached 5,403.3MW on September 22, an ICC tribunal rejected Sunrise Power's Mambilla claims, NISO rejected DisCos' repayment proposals and ePointZero agreed to buy 90 per cent of Azura Power. Edo licensed BEDC and Tetracore, TBEA committed to a power equipment park, NDPHC set out renewables for a second NIPP phase, and TCN declared force majeure on the Kainji to Birnin Kebbi line.

FG Signs N728.979bn Second Power Bond with 11 GenCos The Federal Government, NBET and 11 generation companies signed settlement agreements in Abuja on September 14 for the N728.979 billion Series 2 issuance under the N4 trillion Power Sector MultiInstrument Issuance Programme, comprising N402 billion of cash bonds

sold in the capital market and N326.979 billion of non-cash bonds issued to the GenCos, covering 21 power plants. Series 1 in January 2026 raised N501 billion for eight GenCos, bringing the programme total to N1.23 trillion with Series 2. Of Series 1, N333 billion has

been disbursed, and a first coupon of N63.5 billion was paid on July 14. Officials put verified legacy claims at about N3.3 trillion of the original N4 trillion. "Series 1 proved the model, and Series 2 is scaling it," Special Adviser to the President on Energy Olu Verheijen said in remarks

read on her behalf; NBET Managing Director Akin Odeyemi and Minister of Finance Taiwo Oyedele also spoke. (Premium Times, September 14, 2026 / Nairametrics, September 15, 2026)

NERC Orders DisCos to Put Up to 60% of Opex Allowance into Capital Works NERC's Revised Order on Successor Distribution Companies' Utilisation of Earned Non-Administrative Operating Expenditure, Order NERC/2026/062A dated September 4, requires DisCos without market debts to pay 50 per cent of earned nonadministrative operating

Page 17

expenditure into a CapEx Provision Account from August 2026 to January 2027, rising to 60 per cent from February 2027, with the balance retained for operations. DisCos with outstanding market obligations must remit 25 per cent each to NBET and the market

operator, 25 per cent to capital works and 25 per cent to operations, moving to 30 per cent for capital works and 20 per cent for operations from February 2027, and must agree reconciled payment plans within 180 days. The order replaces Order NERC/2026/062 of June

30, which had required 70 per cent for capital works, after a review of the 2025 market cycle found some DisCos recovering revenue in excess of their upstream obligations. (NERC, September 4, 2026 / ThisDay, September 7, 2026)

Fleissen & Company

October 2026

ICC Tribunal Throws Out Sunrise Power's Mambilla Claims An International Chamber of Commerce tribunal in Paris dismissed Sunrise Power and Transmission Company's claims of US$2.35 billion in damages and a further US$400 million under the 2020 settlement and its addendum for the Mambilla hydropower project, which with interest put Nigeria's potential exposure above US$3.38 billion, in a 620page award reported on September 17, and ordered the company and its promoter to reimburse Nigeria US$11.82 million in legal fees and 75 per cent of US$1.66 million in arbitration costs. The tribunal found that the January 2020 settlement

lacked presidential approval and was procured through corruption; former Attorney-General Abubakar Malami rejected that ﬁnding. President Bola Tinubu said the ruling "clears the single biggest legal hurdle that has paralysed the Mambilla hydro power project for years". The arbitration began in October 2017 over a 2003 build-operatetransfer contract for the project, planned at 3,050MW and since rescoped to about 1,500MW. (Premium Times, September 17 and 22, 2026 / Arise News, September 18, 2026 / Punch, September 18, 2026)

Tegbe Rules Out a Tariff Increase After 100 Days in Office "We have no plan to increase electricity tariffs," Minister of Power Joseph Tegbe said at a briefing in Abuja on September 21 marking his first 100 days, reporting peak generation of 5,330MW between August and September against 3,700 to 4,700MW before June, the return of the 375MW Alaoji open-cycle plant after three years, and 672MW of transmission capacity added at Apapa, Ijora, Alausa and Lekki plus 240MW through a 300MVA transformer at Katampe. The ministry counted 350,000 meters installed in the period and 1,004,260 in total by August, and secured the release of more than 300 containers of transformers, cables and other network equipment held at the ports for installation on

transmission projects. Ministries, departments and agencies owe more than N100 billion for electricity, losses from energy theft on the Ikorodu to Sagamu corridor are put at about N120 billion a year, and 62 solar and mini-grid installations totalling 43.6MW were completed in 30 states. China's TBEA, a maker of transformers and electrical equipment, committed to set up a power equipment industrial park in Nigeria after meeting Tegbe at its Beijing headquarters; no investment, site or timeline was given. (Vanguard, September 21, 2026 / ThisDay, September 22, 2026 / The Sun, September 13, 2026)

Available Generation Reaches 5,403.3MW on September 22 Available generation stood at 5,403.3MW at 8:07 pm on September 22, according to the National Control Centre's load allocation schedule, with 4,379.07MW allocated to the DisCos: Abuja 700MW, Ikeja 581, Ibadan 550, Benin 531,

Page 18

Eko 519, Enugu 512, Port Harcourt 466, Kano 161, Kaduna 155, Jos 134 and Yola 70. NERC's August operational factsheet put average available capacity at 4,758MW and average hourly generation at 4,102MW, a utilisation of 86 per

cent leaving about 656MW unused, with frequency ranging from 49.34Hz to 50.67Hz against limits of 49.75Hz to 50.25Hz. Sapele 2, Alaoji 1, Geregu 2 and Ibom Power 1 recorded no

output in the month. No grid collapse was reported in September. (Tribune, September 24, 2026 / Premium Times, September 25, 2026)

Fleissen & Company

October 2026

Electricity Subsidy Falls to N321.26bn in the Second Quarter NERC's second-quarter 2026 report put the electricity subsidy at N321.26 billion, down N37.06 billion or 10.34 per cent from N358.32 billion in the ﬁrst quarter, for N679.58 billion in the half year; it was 49.60 per cent of the GenCo invoice, and NERC attributed the fall mainly to a 3.40 per cent drop in DisCo oﬀtake. DisCos remitted N306.62 billion of the N326.46 billion NBET invoiced in the quarter, 93.92 per cent. The 2025 subsidy totalled N1,928.31 billion, 57.44 per cent of the NBET invoice

and an average of N160.69 billion a month, according to NERC's 2025 annual report, when DisCos billed N2.99 trillion and collected N2.318 trillion, 77.60 per cent. In July 2026 they collected N205.53 billion of N250.79 billion billed, 81.95 per cent; Eko recovered 94.67 per cent of the value of energy it received and Kaduna 39.71 per cent. (Nairametrics, September 30, 2026 / BusinessDay, September 1, 2026 / Premium Times, September 25, 2026)

NISO Rejects DisCos' Debt Repayment Proposals The Nigerian Independent System Operator rejected repayment proposals submitted by distribution companies at a four-day public hearing from September 1 to 4 on their outstanding market obligations, describing some as "unacceptable, particularly considering the magnitude and age of the outstanding obligations" after the Federal Government had oﬀset about 97 per cent of DisCo obligations for 2015 to 2020.

The committee chaired by Executive Director, Market Operations Edmund Eje said NISO would "proceed with the next steps, including the application of applicable sanctions as provided under the market rules". June collections were N191.86 billion of N240.71 billion billed, 79.71 per cent, and Kaduna Electric's obligations stood at N456.5 billion. (Nairametrics, September 7, 2026 / Arise News, September 8, 2026)

Abu Dhabi's ePointZero to Buy 90% of Azura Power ePointZero, a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi's 2PointZero Group, agreed to acquire 90 per cent of Azura Power from Actis and Africa50,

with Amaya Capital retaining 10 per cent, in a deal subject to regulatory approvals and with no consideration disclosed. Azura's 752MW

operating portfolio comprises the 461MW Azura-Edo plant in Nigeria, 116MW at Tobene in Senegal and 175MW at CTRG in

Mozambique, with a pipeline of more than 1.5GW. (Nairametrics, September 2, 2026)

TCN Declares Force Majeure on the Kainji to Birnin Kebbi Line The Transmission Company of Nigeria declared force majeure on the 330kV Kainji to Birnin Kebbi line after Tower T367 near Yauri collapsed in heavy winds and rain; the line tripped at 10:44 pm on September 7 and reclosure failed. Supply to Sokoto was maintained

Page 19

through the 132kV Zaria, Funtua, Gusau and Talata Mafara corridor, and by September 23 the collapsed tower had been dismantled with an emergency restoration tower on site. TCN also reported a forced outage on the 132kV Kumbotso to Dan Agundi

line in Kano on September 22 and continuing rehabilitation of the Afam IPP to Elelenwo line after a ﬁfth act of vandalism. On September 28 parts of Port Harcourt lost supply after members of the electricity workers' union opened the Afam to Alaoji 330kV line

during a labour dispute with the management of Afam IV. (TCN, September 8 and 24, 2026 / Blueprint, September 29, 2026)

Fleissen & Company

October 2026

Lagos Licenses Elektron's 40MW Victoria Island Plant The Lagos State Electricity Regulatory Commission granted an embedded generation licence to Elektron Energy for the 40MW ﬁrst phase of its US$50 million Victoria Island project, scalable to 70MW, using Wärtsilä gas engines and a 12.6 kilometre underground feeder network shared with Eko DisCo. Nairametrics reported commercial operation targeted for December 2026; ThisDay put completion in the ﬁrst quarter of 2027. The Edo State Electricity

Regulatory Commission issued a provisional licence to BEDC Electricity Edo Ltd on September 23 as the state market begins operation, and the state's Ministry of Power licensed Tetracore Power Company for generation and distribution; Tetracore disclosed no capacity or investment. (Nairametrics, September 10, 2026 / ThisDay, September 8, 2026 / BusinessDay, September 23, 2026 / Business Insider Africa, September 20, 2026)

NDPHC Plans a Renewables-Led Second Phase of NIPP The Niger Delta Power Holding Company is preparing a second phase of the National Integrated Power Project built on solar, mini-hydro and oﬀ-grid generation, mainly in northern Nigeria, Managing Director Jennifer Adighije told the House Committee on Power on September 2. NDPHC holds about 4,000MW of Nigeria's roughly 12,000MW of installed capacity, with seven of the ten Phase 1 plants in commercial operation and more than 1,500MW mechanically available against an

allocation of about 500MW an hour. Adighije asked Governor Umo Eno to help settle community and wayleave claims, valued at slightly below N4 billion, that have stalled the 330kV Ikot Abasi transmission line awarded in 2006, on which contractor Anit Energy has completed about 90 per cent of the work; NDPHC aims to commission the line before May 29, 2027. (BusinessDay, September 3, 2026 / Daily Trust, September 22, 2026)

Ibom Power's 191MW Plant Ran for About 38 Days in a Year Ibom Power's 191MW plant operated for about 38 days between August 2025 and August 2026 as gas supplier Accugas received about 40 per

cent of invoices of about N1.5 billion for a 20-day month; the company is seeking N10 billion to N12 billion, including about N9 billion for gas

security, and owes N840 million in salaries. "Ibom Power stopped because it sold electricity into a market that did not pay for it," Eyo Ekpo of

Excredite Consulting said. (ThisDay, September 15, 2026)

FG Opens Talks with DisCos on 24-Hour Energy Zones Minister of Power Joseph Tegbe met the leadership of selected distribution companies, including AEDC, Ikeja Electric, Eko and IBEDC, on

Page 20

September 30 on proposed Energy Zones intended to deliver 24hour supply to homes, businesses and industries in the Lagos axis and the

Abuja-Kaduna-Kano and Enugu-Port Harcourt corridors, saying the constraint now lies in the DisCos' capacity to take and deliver available

power. No timeline or investment ﬁgure was given. (Punch, September 30, 2026)

Fleissen & Company

October 2026

RENEWABLE ENERGY AND CLEAN TRANSITION

New money for mini-grids and a new campus solar plant

SUBSECTOR INSIGHT The Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority and Africa50 launched the US$300 million Nigeria Distributed Renewable Energy Fund with SEforALL on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, with US$25 million from the World Bank's IDA as founding partner. Niger State opened prequalification, due October 13, for an IsDB-financed 100MW solar plant at Maikunkele, with bids expected in January 2027. The Rural Electrification Agency commissioned a 3.3MWp plant with 2MWh of storage at Yakubu Gowon University, presented the Renewable Asset Management Company's plan to monetise 82MW of public solar assets valued at N263 billion and invited the ICPC to review its systems, while a 581kWp interconnected mini-grid at Oke-Oyi in Kwara began selling power at N150 per kWh. All On committed US$5 million to PowerGen's mini-grids and, with Energise Africa, US$4 million for 19 communities in Jigawa and Bauchi; Ondo announced solar for 1,000 small businesses; and the Ogun-Osun basin authority signed with 3D NNPC Biofuels for a €256 million cassava ethanol plant. Nigeria imported 2.9 million solar panels in 2025 against about 300MW a year of local assembly.

US$300m Distributed Renewable Energy Fund Launched at the UN The Nigeria Distributed Renewable Energy Fund, a US$300 million vehicle co-managed by the Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority and Africa50 with SEforALL and the World Bank as partners, reached commercial launch on the sidelines of the 81st UN General

Assembly in New York, described by SEforALL as the ﬁrst country fund under the DRE Africa Platform. The World Bank is contributing an initial US$25 million from IDA as founding partner. The fund will ﬁnance mini-grids, solar home systems, storage and

commercial and industrial solar replacing diesel, in line with Mission 300's target of 300 million connections in Africa by 2030. NSIA Managing Director Aminu Umar-Sadiq said the launch tells investors that "Nigeria's distributed renewable energy market is

investable, credible and ready to operate at scale". First close and pipeline ﬁgures were not disclosed. (SEforALL, September 20, 2026 / Vanguard, September 22, 2026)

REA Moves to Monetise N263bn of Public Solar Assets The Renewable Asset Management Company, launched in August, will own and manage publicly ﬁnanced renewable assets, contract operators, meter and collect revenue and hold ring-fenced maintenance reserves, Rural Electriﬁcation Agency Managing

Page 21

Director Abba Aliyu said, presenting a portfolio of 82MW across 22 federal universities and three teaching hospitals valued at about N263 billion, with 150MW under construction or in the pipeline. A maintenance audit found only three of seven inspected Phase I

sites in good or usable condition. Deliverables to November 2026 include asset valuation, transfer to RAMCO, contractor onboarding and tariﬀ negotiations. "Reliable electricity is not free," Aliyu said. The agency also hosted a team from the Independent Corrupt

Practices and Other Related Oﬀences Commission for a system study of its programmes, operations and internal controls; no allegations or amounts were cited. (BusinessDay, September 1 and 24, 2026)

Fleissen & Company

October 2026

Interconnected Mini-Grid in Kwara Sells Power at N150 per kWh A 581kWp interconnected solar mini-grid with 1,336 panels and 84 batteries was commissioned at Oke-Oyi in Ilorin East on September 24, serving about 13,000 residents and 23 businesses through about 10 kilometres of distribution network linked to the Ibadan Electricity Distribution Company grid. Tariﬀs are N150 per kWh by day and

N160 at night, with an average household bill under N6,000 a month. The project was developed by Nayo Tropical Technologies under the Rural Electriﬁcation Fund's Interconnected Mini-Grid Acceleration Scheme with funding from the European Union and German Cooperation through GIZ. About 180 households were

connected at commissioning, with expansion planned to 2,200, and one business reported energy costs falling from about N200,000 a month on diesel to under N50,000. In Ondo, Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa announced the Lucky Light Initiative to supply solar power to 1,000 small businesses across the state's 18 local government

areas from 2026; system sizes, budget and vendors were not disclosed. (Daily Trust, September 24, 2026 / Tribune, September 24, 2026 / Vanguard, September 19, 2026 / BizWatch Nigeria, September 21, 2026)

Yakubu Gowon University Gets a 3MW Solar Hybrid Plant Minister of Power Joseph Tegbe commissioned a 3.3MWp solar array with 3MW of AC output, 2MWh of battery storage, 6,078 panels and 388 solar streetlights at Yakubu Gowon University,

Abuja on September 16, delivered by the Rural Electrification Agency under Phase II of the Energizing Education Programme with World Bank financing through the Nigeria Electrification Project. A renewable energy

training centre was built on the campus. REA Managing Director Abba Aliyu listed plants for Maiduguri (12MW), Calabar (7MW), FUNAAB and Umudike (3MW each), NDA Kaduna (2.5MW) and

Gashua (1.5MW) as next in the pipeline. Tegbe gave the agency six months to extend supply to hostels. (Vanguard, September 16, 2026 / Guardian, September 16, 2026)

All On Backs PowerGen and Northern Mini-Grids All On committed US$5 million in mezzanine ﬁnancing to PowerGen Renewable Energy Nigeria for isolated and interconnected mini-grids, an investment expected to support up to 6,000 connections, about 41,000 beneﬁciaries and up to

Page 22

9MW of generation, alongside ElectriFI, Impact Fund Denmark, SEFA and InfraCo. ThisDay reported PowerGen's Toto mini-grid in Nasarawa as Nigeria's ﬁrst interconnected hybrid solar mini-grid. With Energise Africa, All On also invested US$4

million in solar mini-grids for 19 communities in Jigawa and Bauchi States under the Demand Aggregation for Renewable Energy Technology programme, to be built by Maskh Nigeria Limited and serve about 100,000 people, Chief Executive Caroline

Eboumbou said. (ThisDay, September 18, 2026 / BusinessDay, September 20, 2026 / Guardian, September 3, 2026)

Fleissen & Company

October 2026

Nigeria Imported 2.9 Million Solar Panels in 2025 Nigeria imported 2.9 million solar panels worth about N400 billion, or US$295 million, in 2025, more than 70 per cent from China, according to a Climate Home News investigation, while domestic module assembly capacity stands at about 300MW a year across LPV Technologies in Lagos and NASENI's Karshi plant, with no

domestic cell, wafer or polysilicon production. A 550W imported panel retails at about N150,000. The Nasarawa Renewable Energy Industrial Park and the Energy Commission's Enugu plant are not yet producing, and the 1,000MW LONGi manufacturing agreement announced in 2025 is pending. ESI Africa separately

cited 803MW of offgrid solar added in 2025, and in Lagos Sun King widened its PowerHub inverter range to 2.2 to 30 kVA and launched a solarpowered freezer. Niger State invited prequalification applications, due October 13, for a 100MW solar plant and evacuation works at Maikunkele in Bosso, financed by the

Islamic Development Bank; formal bids are expected to be invited in January 2027. (Climate Home News, September 11, 2026 / ESI Africa, September 24, 2026 / ThisDay, September 14, 2026 / TaiyangNews, September 8, 2026 / P&W Solar, September 8, 2026)

Ogun-Osun Authority Signs MoU for a €256m Cassava Ethanol Plant The Ogun-Osun River Basin Development Authority and 3D NNPC Biofuels Limited signed a memorandum of understanding in Abeokuta on September 29 for a €256

million bioethanol plant at Itokin in Lagos State, with the authority providing 200 hectares at its Itokin site for the plant and 15,000 hectares of its land bank in Lagos, Ogun, Osun and

Oyo States for cassava feedstock. Managing Director Adedeji Ashiru said the project would support energy and food security and put underused public land to

work. No plant capacity, investors or construction timetable were published. (Punch, September 29, 2026)

CLEAN MOBILITY The government asks states to pass on CNG savings

SUBSECTOR INSIGHT President Bola Tinubu reported more than 120,000 vehicles converted to compressed natural gas, more than 400 certiﬁed conversion centres and more than 90 refuelling stations, and asked states to deliver measurable fare reductions from October 1 through a Governors' Forum committee chaired by Kwara's AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, rejecting any return to petrol subsidy as pump prices passed N1,400. The Presidential CNG Initiative expects the ﬁrst 500 of 1,000 new stations by the end of October, counts about 170 more stations in development and has licensed 81 companies to retail CNG at N380 per standard cubic metre for cars and N450 for heavy vehicles; Minister Ekpo counted US$2 billion secured for the value chain, and the initiative put private-sector commitments at about US$2.5 billion. An Ardova-led consortium agreed to buy Powergas, with four mother stations and more than 250 tube skids, and plans 100 CNG sites within 24 months; NNPC and Sunbeth opened self-service stations in Abuja, HBM Nigeria commissioned a 150-truck-a-day CNG station at Mfamosing and CIMC Enric readied 150 tube trailers for the Nigerian market.

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October 2026

Tinubu Tells States to Deliver CNG Fare Cuts from October 1 Fuel cost of 100 km

First 500 of 1,000 New CNG Stations Due by End-October

Naira, Pi-CNG estimate for a 65 kg CNG cylinder against petrol

Pi-CNG via Nairametrics, September 9, 2026

More than 120,000 vehicles have been converted to compressed natural gas, more than 400 conversion centres certiﬁed and more than 90 refuelling stations opened, President Bola Tinubu said in a statement on September 19, naming October 1 as the date from which "more Nigerians should begin to see measurable reductions in transportation costs" through an implementation committee of the Governors' Forum chaired by Kwara State Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq. The statement cited

Kaduna's 100 CNG buses, free to ride since July 7, 2025, carrying 3.2 million passengers in their ﬁrst year with N3.5 billion saved, Enugu's 100 buses cutting the Enugu to Nsukka fare from N2,500 to N1,500, and Lagos to Ibadan fares falling from N8,000 to N3,200 in Oyo. "Our answer cannot be to return to the ruinous petrol subsidy regime that consumed trillions," the President said.

named misconceptions about cylinder safety and station availability as the main barriers to adoption, with conversion at about N1.5 million and a 65 kilogramme cylinder giving about 100 kilometres for N5,200 to N6,000 against N19,500 to N23,400 on petrol. China's CIMC Enric said on September 11 that 150 CNG tube trailers were ready to ship to the Nigerian market, without naming the buyer. (Legit.ng, September 20, 2026 / Nairametrics, September 9, 2026 / CIMC Enric on LinkedIn, September 11, 2026)

(State House, September 19, 2026 / ThisDay, September 20, 2026 / Punch, September 22, 2026)

Ardova-Led Consortium Agrees to Buy Powergas A consortium led by Ardova Plc with Diadem Energy agreed to acquire 100 per cent of Powergas Global Investments Nigeria and Powergas Ebedei from A.P. Moller Capital's Africa

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The first 500 of 1,000 new CNG stations ordered by the Federal Government are expected by the end of October, with a second 500 to follow, Presidential CNG Initiative Executive Chairman Ismaeel Ahmed told Sunday Punch, with siting to be decided by vehicle numbers and traffic across Lagos, Kano, Abuja, Port Harcourt, Zamfara, Borno, Enugu, Anambra and Lafia. Abuja has 26 operating stations, the most of any city. Eighty-one companies have been newly licensed to retail CNG, up from about four, at N380 per standard cubic metre for cars and buses and N450 for heavy vehicles. Ahmed separately

Infrastructure Fund I and Impala Energy Holdings for an undisclosed sum, with completion expected by the end of 2026 subject to regulatory approvals. Powergas, founded in 2013,

operates four mother stations, more than 250 tube skids and the Ebedei compression plant commissioned in 2021, with 175 direct staﬀ. Ardova plans 100 CNG refuelling sites across its retail network within 24 months. "Nigeria's next era of energy development will be built on gas, and it will

be built at scale," Executive Chairman AbdulWasiu Sowami said. (BusinessDay, September 25, 2026 / Nairametrics, September 25, 2026)

Fleissen & Company

October 2026

Ekpo Says US$2bn Has Been Secured for CNG Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas) Ekperikpe Ekpo said US$2 billion has been secured for CNG infrastructure and the value chain, with 655 CNG buses and 5,123 CNG tricycles procured and deployed, more than 7,700

technicians trained and more than 10,000 direct and indirect jobs created. Executive Chairman Ismaeel Ahmed put privatesector commitments at about US$2.5 billion on September 30, with about 90 stations operating, 170 in

development and fares on designated CNG bus routes to fall by at least 40 per cent. CREDICORP handed over credit-ﬁnanced CNG tricycles in Yola on September 23 under a scheme targeting 10,000

locally assembled vehicles nationwide, and Sokoto State began converting 20 transport authority vehicles at N750,000 each. (ThisDay, September 2, 2026 / Legit.ng, September 25, 2026 / Tribune,

NNPC Opens a Self-Service Station with EV Charging in Abuja NNPC Retail commissioned its ﬁrst smart self-service station on Bill Clinton Drive, Abuja on September 9, combining 16 petrol and two diesel pumps with 180,000 litres of petrol storage, electric vehicle charging in 30 to 40 minutes, a 200kWh solar system and app-based payment, with LPG dispensing being added and CNG and a conversion

centre planned. "We are turning from a ﬁlling station to an energy hub," Executive Vice President Downstream Mumuni Dagazau said. NNPC plans 50 to 70 such stations within six months, including four or ﬁve more in Abuja and two in Kano. Sunbeth Energies opened a self-service station in Wuse, Abuja, after its Ogba, Lagos outlet, where it reported full

transaction success and no downtime over the previous month. The National Automotive Design and Development Council opened review of a draft National Automotive Industry Bill 2026 in Lagos on September 4, covering the move to completelyknocked-down assembly, vehicle electriﬁcation standards, local content and an Automotive

Development Fund. EV Nigeria Expo 2026 will be held on November 25 and 26 at the Balmoral Convention Centre, Lagos. (Vanguard, September 10, 2026 / Naija News, September 10, 2026 / Daily Trust, September 23, 2026 / Tribune, September 4, 2026 / Nairametrics, September 11, 2026)

HBM Opens a CNG Station for Its Trucks HBM Nigeria Plc, formerly Lafarge Africa, commissioned a CNG refuelling station at its Mfamosing cement plant in Cross River State able to

serve up to 150 trucks a day with 144,000 standard cubic metres of gas across two pumps and four dispensing points, running 24 hours, with a second phase due in

October to lift capacity to about 250 trucks a day. The company has fuelled its logistics ﬂeet with CNG for nine years, Logistics Director Osaze Aghatise

said. (The Sun, September 2, 2026 / ThisDay, September 10, 2026)

TRADE AND INTERNATIONAL MARKETS Brent crosses US$100 and reserves climb to US$54.92bn

SUBSECTOR INSIGHT Brent settled at US$94.65 on September 1, its lowest close of the month, crossed US$100 on September 9, closed at a high of US$108.75 on September 15 and settled at US$102.59 on September 29; the November contract expired at US$103.50 on September 30. Bonny Light was quoted above US$115. External reserves reached US$54.92 billion on September 29, the highest since 2008, the naira closed the month at N1,329.50 per dollar and the CBN cut its policy rate by 350 basis points to 23 per cent on September 22 with August inflation at 15.39 per cent. Second-quarter data showed crude exports of N12.91 trillion, 47.79 per cent of exports, a current account surplus of US$7.54 billion and refined product exports of US$3.94 billion, up 148 per cent. FAAC distributed N2.338 trillion for August as gross statutory revenue fell 34.62 per cent. Nigeria and the IEA signed a joint work programme, India asked for more crude, and Dangote broke ground on September 30 on a US$16 billion, 700,000 barrels per day refinery at Lamu in Kenya.

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Fleissen & Company

October 2026

Brent Crosses US$100, Peaking at US$108.75 on September 15 Brent closed at US$94.65 per barrel on September 1, the month's lowest settlement, and crossed US$100 on September 9 with a close of US$101.21. It reached an intraday high of US$109.97 on September 11 and its highest close of US$108.75 on September 15, after the shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline. Nairametrics reported Bonny Light above US$115 on September 12 and 13 and put the year's gain in crude above 75 per cent.

Brent settled at US$99.25 on September 22 as Iran indicated the Strait of Hormuz would reopen and talks with the United States resumed, then at US$104.32 on September 25 and at US$102.59 on September 29. The November contract expired at US$103.50 on September 30, when the December contract settled at US$98.03. (Investing.com, September 25, 2026 / Nairametrics, September 14, 2026 / Rio Times, September 30, 2026)

Dangote Shipped About 80,000 bpd of Jet Fuel to Europe in Q2 The Dangote refinery reported a net profit of US$1.82 billion on revenue of US$13.91 billion for the first half of 2026, against a loss of US$475.8 million for 2025, according to offer documents cited by Reuters, which reported Kpler data showing jet fuel exports to Europe of about 80,000 barrels per day in the second quarter, about 13 per cent of the continent's supply shortfall, and put gasoline output at 270,000 to 300,000 barrels per day.

Nigeria's gasoline imports have fallen from 400,000 barrels per day in 2024 to 83,000 barrels per day in 2026. "Europe must really thank Nigeria under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for keeping their planes ﬂying," Aliko Dangote said on September 14. (Reuters via CNBC Africa, September 15, 2026 / Nairametrics, September 14, 2026)

Reﬁned Product Exports Rise 148% Year on Year in Q2 Crude oil exports of N12.91 trillion made up 47.79 per cent of Nigeria's N27.02 trillion of exports in the second quarter, when trade rose 19.13 per cent to N41.44 trillion and the surplus reached N12.60 trillion, National Bureau of Statistics data show; India was the largest export destination at N3.28 trillion.

Central Bank balance of payments data put the second-quarter current account surplus at US$7.54 billion, with crude exports of US$9.39 billion, gas exports of US$3.63 billion and reﬁned petroleum exports of US$3.94 billion, up 66.24 per cent on the quarter and 148 per cent on a year earlier.

India asked for more Nigerian crude when Vice President Kashim Shettima met Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the BRICS summit in New Delhi. Bilateral trade fell from about US$14.95 billion in 2021-22 to US$7.13 billion in 2024-25 and recovered to about US$9 billion in 2025-26;

HPCL bought 2 million barrels of Nigerian crude in August. (Arise News, September 8, 2026 / Nairametrics, September 14 and 22, 2026 / Daily Trust, September 14, 2026)

Nigeria and the IEA Sign a Joint Work Programme Nigeria and the International Energy Agency signed a Joint Work Programme in Abuja on September 3, with Vice President Kashim Shettima

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representing President Bola Tinubu and IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol attending, covering energy security, clean cooking, renewables, methane reduction and

energy data systems. Nigeria joined the IEA as an association country in July 2026, reported at the time as the ﬁrst OPEC member to do so, and the ministry said the

programme could help double energy investment. (BusinessDay, September 3, 2026)

Fleissen & Company

October 2026

External Reserves Reach US$54.92bn, the Highest Since 2008 External reserves passed US$54 billion on September 3, the highest since December 2008, and reached US$54.92 billion on September 29, up from US$45.56 billion at the start of the year, with CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso citing "receipts from crude oil-related taxes and thirdparty inflows". The naira closed September at N1,329.50 per dollar on the official market. Headline inflation eased to 15.39 per cent in August from 15.43 per cent in July. The Monetary Policy Committee cut the monetary policy rate by 350 basis points to 23 per cent from 26.5 per cent on September 22, in what Cardoso called a recalibration rather than an

easing cycle. Minister of Finance Taiwo Oyedele said on September 14 that Nigeria has reentered a J.P. Morgan emerging market bond index after 11 years, with inflows of about US$17.5 billion expected. Cardoso and Oyedele signed a memorandum on monetary and fiscal coordination on September 21, covering cash management, debt issuance planning and liquidity forecasting, ahead of the bank's move to inflation targeting. (Vanguard, September 5 and 21, 2026 / Premium Times, September 14 and 15, 2026 / Channels Television, September 22, 2026 / Nairametrics, October 1, 2026)

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The Federation Account Allocation Committee distributed N2.338 trillion of August revenue to the three tiers of government from gross available revenue of N3.685 trillion, with gross statutory revenue of N2.850 trillion down N1.508 trillion, or 34.62 per cent, from July's N4.359 trillion. The Federal Government received N804.897 billion, the states N794.313 billion and local governments N555.142 billion, with N184.388

billion in 13 per cent derivation to oil-producing states. Petroleum profit tax, hydrocarbon tax, VAT, excise and common external tariff levies rose, while petroleum royalties, gas flare penalties, companies income tax, import duty and other oil revenue fell. (PM News, September 17, 2026 / BusinessDay, September 18, 2026)

Dangote Breaks Ground on a US$660m Djibouti to Ethiopia Pipeline

The Dangote Group broke ground with Ethiopian Investment Holdings on the US$660 million, 120 US$450 million as project kilometre Damerjog to management and EPCM Dewele multiproduct consultant. pipeline between Kenya is negotiating with Djibouti and Ethiopia, Dangote to raise a planned with Prime Minister LNG-ﬁred power plant at Abiy Ahmed and Lamu to 1,000MW, The Africa President Ismaïl Omar Report said, and landowners Guelleh attending; it is and conservationists are due to operate within 18 challenging the project in months and to cut fuel court. delivery from Djibouti's port to Addis Ababa (Reuters via CNBC Africa, from ﬁve days to one. September 29 and 30, 2026 / Aliko Dangote told Nairametrics, September 22, Bloomberg of a US$3.5 2026 / Punch, September 10, billion, 2,650 kilometre 2026) products pipeline

Dangote and Ruto Break Ground on the US$16bn Lamu Refinery President William Ruto and Aliko Dangote broke ground on September 30 for the group's 700,000 barrels per day refinery and petrochemical complex at Lamu, Kenya, a project Reuters valued at US$16 billion. Regional governments have been offered a 30 per cent stake, with Kenya and Rwanda allowed to pay over four years, Honeywell will provide engineering services, licensing and equipment, and Engineers India disclosed on September 22 a contract of more than

FAAC Shares N2.338trn as Statutory Revenue Falls 34.62%

planned to link Namibia, Botswana and South Africa. Oilserv Limited signed a framework agreement with Gabon's Ministry of Petroleum and Gas to develop the DEF-3 and D4-5 blocks, including gas transport, compression and treatment; no value was disclosed. (Premium Times, September 24, 2026 / BBC, September 25, 2026 / BusinessDay, September 21, 2026 / Nairametrics, September 18, 2026)

Fleissen & Company

October 2026

POLICY, REGULATION AND GOVERNANCE The regulator drafts competition rules for fuel

SUBSECTOR INSIGHT The NMDPRA signed a memorandum with the FCCPC on September 10 and opened stakeholder consultation on the Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Prevention of Anti-Competitive Practices and Behaviour Regulations 2026, 138 regulations in 23 parts made under section 216 of the PIA, ordered every retail outlet to calibrate its dispensers and opened an anti-smuggling drive with Customs. A Federal High Court in Abuja ordered the authority on September 28 to keep licensing three importers, while an order keeping it out of the Dangote reﬁnery's free-zone operations was extended in Lagos. Minister Lokpobiri said deregulation will not be reversed and that higher crude output would not lower petrol prices. NUPRC reported 173 Host Communities Development Trusts incorporated and 147 funded, and the amended licensing regulations tighten the consortium test and add reserve bidders ahead of the October round. HYPREP marked ten years of the Ogoni clean-up, the PTDF set up a committee under Ibe Kachikwu to revive its Port Harcourt skills centre, and Oando and the NCDMB began a 12-month drilling programme.

NMDPRA Puts 138 Anti-Competition Rules Out for Consultation The NMDPRA presented the draft Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Prevention of AntiCompetitive Practices and Behaviour Regulations 2026, 138 regulations in 23 parts made under section 216 of the Petroleum Industry Act, at a stakeholder forum in Abuja on September 22 after receiving about 20 written comments. It had signed a memorandum of

understanding with the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission in Abuja on September 10 on information sharing, surveillance and coordinated enforcement against price ﬁxing, cartel behaviour, product withholding and underdispensing. The rules would prohibit price ﬁxing and coordinated pricing of pump prices,

margins and freight, market sharing, bid rigging, supply restriction, unjustified refusal of access to pipelines, depots and terminals, exclusive supply and tying by firms with significant market power, resale price maintenance and hidden surcharges, and would formalise concurrent jurisdiction on merger review. Chief Executive Rabiu Umar said regulation "must provide regulatory

certainty, support investment and innovation, promote eﬃcient markets, and protect the integrity of the petroleum sector". Penalties and a ﬁnalisation date were not stated. (ThisDay, September 23, 2026 / BusinessDay, September 13 and 23, 2026)

NMDPRA Orders Every Filling Station to Calibrate Its Pumps The NMDPRA directed all retail outlets on September 22 to calibrate and verify their dispensers and totalisers immediately to stop underdispensing, warning that persistent violations would attract sanctions up to revocation of the

Page 28

outlet's licence, and asked MEMAN, DAPPMAN, IPMAN and PETROAN to notify their members. An inter-agency workshop on fuel smuggling led by Executive Director, Distribution Systems, Storage and Retailing

Infrastructure Ogbugo Ukoha followed on September 22 and 23, after the authority's September 19 statement committed it to joint operations with the Nigeria Customs Service on border corridors. Aliko Dangote said on

September 15 that Nigerian petrol is 20 to 25 per cent cheaper than in Niger. (Nairametrics, September 22, 2026 / ThisDay, September 23, 2026)

Fleissen & Company

October 2026

Court Keeps NMDPRA Out of Dangote Reﬁnery's Free-Zone Operations Justice Akintayo Aluko of the Federal High Court, Lagos, in suit FHC/L/CS/1174/2026, restrained the NMDPRA from entering, sealing, inspecting, supervising, sanctioning or otherwise interfering with the Dangote reﬁnery's operations pending the hearing of its motion on notice, after the authority's directive of August 24 suspended the loading and truck-out of propane and LPG from the Lekki plant.

The judge referred to a March 2, 2026 letter from the Attorney-General stating that the NMDPRA was not entitled to exercise regulatory powers over operations within free zones. The interim order was extended on September 10 despite the authority's challenge to the court's jurisdiction. (Arise News, September 1, 2026 / ThisDay, September 10, 2026)

Host Community Trusts Reach 173, of Which 147 Are Funded The number of Host Communities Development Trusts incorporated under the Petroleum Industry Act has reached 173, of which 147 are funded, with more than 1,000 projects ongoing and more than 200 commissioned, NUPRC Chief Executive Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan reported during the commission's working visit to Minister of State Ekperikpe Ekpo on September 8; the count stood at 172 at

Page 29

the end of August. Renaissance Africa Energy told a Port Harcourt summit that it has remitted N149 billion to 32 trusts funding 473 projects, as reported by Sweetcrude Reports. The OML 30 communities' ultimatum to Heritage Energy included the award of scoped trust projects among its demands. (NUPRC, September 9, 2026 / ThisDay, September 10, 2026)

Lokpobiri Says Fuel Deregulation Will Not Be Reversed Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil) Heineken Lokpobiri said the Federal Government will not reverse downstream deregulation because of global price movements and that raising output even to 3 million barrels per day would not lower domestic product prices, which are set by the market under section 205 of the Petroleum Industry Act, in remarks to a visiting Congolese delegation and on Channels Television. He listed the US$550 million Ubeta, US$5 billion

Bonga North and US$2 billion Shell HI projects as dividends of the ﬁscal reforms. President Bola Tinubu's September 23 statement on the Ima decision credited the Petroleum Industry Act and the 2024 presidential directives on nonassociated gas ﬁscal terms, developed under Special Adviser on Energy Olu Verheijen. (Guardian, September 22, 2026 / Premium Times, September 23, 2026)

Licensing Rules Tighten the Consortium Test and Add Reserve Bidders The Petroleum Licensing Round (Amendment) Regulations 2026, dated March 9, require every member of a bidding consortium to meet the legal requirements while allowing the ﬁnancial requirement to be met by one member, provide for up to four reserve bidders per block, and retain the bid guarantee and workcommitment guarantee of the 2022 regulations, TheCable reported in an analysis ahead of the October round. Licence terms are three years for shallow water and ﬁve for

deepwater and frontier acreage. NUPRC Chief Executive Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan said the commission "took a gamble" by oﬀering some licences prematurely in the previous round, and is considering a compliancetrading platform for the domestic crude supply obligation. (TheCable, September 26, 2026 / TheCable, September 7, 2026)

Fleissen & Company

October 2026

HYPREP Begins Second Phase of Ogoni Shoreline Restoration Minister of Environment Balarabe Abbas Lawal ﬂagged oﬀ the second phase of shoreline clean-up and mangrove restoration at Bodo in Gokana and the Centre of Excellence for Environmental Restoration at Wiiyaakara in Khana on September 3, marking ten years since the Ogoni cleanup began in June 2016. HYPREP reported more than 1.5 million mangrove seedlings planted, more than 1,000 hectares of shoreline cleaned and 560 hectares restored, and said it is preparing a 2026 to 2031 strategic plan. The Governing Council chaired by Nwibiere Barinedum Michael inspected the Agiakpori and Ogale remediation sites and

the K-Dere and Bua Yeghe water schemes, resolving to expedite approvals and address flooding at Lot 11 in Ogale. The Coalition of Ogoni Youths and residents of Korokoro said they had lost confidence in the leadership of the Ogoni Dialogue Committee and asked for disclosure of confidencebuilding contracts and job allocations; the committee says it has not selected beneficiaries or awarded contracts. The report gave no date for oil production to resume in Ogoniland. (Check Climate Africa, September 7, 2026 / ThisDay, September 11 and 17, 2026)

Kachikwu to Lead PTDF Committee on Port Harcourt Skills Centre The Petroleum Technology Development Fund inaugurated a committee chaired by Ibe Kachikwu to develop a framework for the full operation

Page 30

of its Centre for Skills Development and Training in Port Harcourt, with industry curricula and routes into employment and enterprise, after a

NCDMB Hosts a Congolese Delegation in Bayelsa The Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board hosted a Congolese delegation led by hydrocarbons directorgeneral Franc Mouzabakani and Minister Simplice Stev Onanga on September 22 to 24, touring the Nigerian Oil and Gas Parks Scheme site at Emeyal, the 10MW Elebele gas plant and the Nigerian Content Tower in Yenagoa. At Africa Oil Week in Accra the board promoted an African local content programme with the African Union and Ghana's Petroleum Commission. Organisers of Nigeria's participation in the China (Dongying) petroleum equipment exhibition on September 28 to 30 capped the delegation to keep discussions transaction-

skills audit found shortages of Nigerian technical and middlelevel manpower, Executive Secretary Shuaibu Aliyu said. In Port Harcourt, Oando Energy Resources Nigeria, the NCDMB and Hilong Oil Service

driven, with coordination by Oraso Consulting. A board delegation led by Director Austin Uzoka, representing Executive Secretary Felix Ogbe, attended the China Shale Oil and Gas Summit in Chengdu and engaged more than 100 original equipment manufacturers, and the board launched an in-house academy for staﬀ and stakeholders. The board, which puts Nigerian content at 61 per cent in 2025 against less than 5 per cent in 2010, honoured 14 retired staﬀ in Yenagoa on September 27. (NCDMB, September 23 and 24, 2026 / Punch, September 28, 2026 / ThisDay, September 9, 2026)

and Engineering Nigeria began a 12month drilling engineering programme for young Nigerians on September 4. (ThisDay, September 10 and 22, 2026)

Fleissen & Company

October 2026

CORPORATE NEWS AND APPOINTMENTS NNPC's 2025 proﬁt rises a third to N7.2 trillion

SUBSECTOR INSIGHT NNPC Limited reported 2025 profit after tax of N7.2 trillion, up 33 per cent, on revenue of N34.5 trillion, declared a N5.8 trillion dividend and booked N11.2 trillion of receivables from the Federation, while its July report showed profit down to N279 billion and N7.913 trillion remitted in seven months. Seplat Energy closed at an all-time high of N16,000 on September 24 for a market value of N9.599 trillion as the NGX Oil and Gas Index reached a record 6,252.0; Apex Global Energy disclosed a 14.16 per cent holding in Seplat and the Heirs group raised its stake to 21.07 per cent. The Dangote Group set Vision 2030 targets of US$115 billion of turnover and US$35 billion of annual profit, with a US$8 billion LNG plant in its investment plan. Aradel, Seplat and Oando held N2.86 trillion of cash at the half year and Oando shareholders approved cross-border listings. Sahara Group appointed Chidilim Menakaya Managing Director, Ingentia named Victor Agbaroji Managing Director, Transcorp Power added Maryam Bala Shehu to its board, Oando's Ainojie Irune joined the World Energy Council's Nigerian board, and Xenergi took control of Premier Paints.

NNPC Reports N7.2 Trillion Proﬁt for 2025

Seplat Shares Close at a Record N16,000

NNPC Limited reported proﬁt after tax of N7.2 trillion for 2025, up 33 per cent from N5.4 trillion, on revenue of N34.5 trillion, down 24 per cent, with EBITDA up 22 per cent to N18.0 trillion and a dividend of N5.8 trillion, up 35 per cent, Group Chief Executive Bayo Ojulari said in Abuja on September 29, presenting the audited statements. Oil and condensate production rose 5 per cent to 565.8 million barrels and gas production 9 per cent to 2,606.2 billion standard cubic feet, about 7,140 MMSCFD.

Seplat Energy's shares closed at an all-time high of N16,000 on the Nigerian Exchange on September 24, up N1,092.20 or 7.33 per cent on the day, for a market capitalisation of N9.599 trillion and a yearto-date gain of 175.44 per cent from N5,809, after a record N14,907.80 on September 16. The NGX Oil and Gas Index rose 3.95 per cent to a record 6,252.0 on the same day, and the exchange's market capitalisation had passed N162 trillion for the ﬁrst time on September 18.

The company booked N11.2 trillion of receivables from the Federation for costs and advances incurred on its behalf in 2025. Ojulari said there is no date yet for an initial public offering, which would cover NNPC Limited as a whole, and that no final agreement has been signed with the Chinese partners assessing the refineries, whose 33 engineers spent about three months at the plants. (Blueprint, September 29, 2026 / BusinessDay, September 30, 2026 / PM News, September 30, 2026)

The company reported ﬁrsthalf proﬁt before tax of N790.4 billion, up 74.1 per cent, on revenue of N2.50 trillion and production of 139,509 barrels of oil equivalent per day. TotalEnergies Marketing Nigeria fell 10 per cent to N518.40 in the week to September 25 and Transcorp Power dropped 9.96 per cent to N178 on September 18. (Nairametrics, September 25, 2026 / BusinessDay, September 18, 2026)

Apex Global Energy Discloses a 14.16% Stake in Seplat Apex Global Energy Limited of Lagos notiﬁed Seplat Energy that it holds 84,946,608 voting rights, 14.16 per cent of the company, after crossing the threshold on September 15, according to a TR-1 major holdings notiﬁcation

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published on the London Stock Exchange on September 17. The filing states that the notifier is not controlled by any natural person or legal entity and gives no previous position; a filing on August 24 had recorded Sustainable

Capital Limited of Mauritius reducing its stake from 6.18 per cent to nil. Heirs Energies bought 6 million more Seplat shares, taking the Heirs group's combined holding to 21.07 per cent from 20.07 per cent, according to an NGX

disclosure reported on September 30. (London Stock Exchange RNS, September 17, 2026 / Nairametrics, September 17 and 30, 2026)

Fleissen & Company

October 2026

NNPC's July Profit Falls 48% to N279bn NNPC Limited reported revenue of N3.087 trillion and profit after tax of N279 billion for July 2026, down from N4.389 trillion and N535 billion in June, a 48 per cent fall in profit, in its monthly report, attributing lower output to facility outages, equipment unavailability, pipeline incidents and production constraints. Crude and condensate production averaged 1.68 million barrels per day by NNPC's count against 1.72 million in June, and sales were

22.53 million barrels, 21.53 million of it crude, against 28.23 million in June. Statutory payments to the Federation Account reached N7.913 trillion for January to July, with N1.627 trillion in July. Gas production was 7,489 MMSCFD, the AKK pipeline was 95 per cent available and NNPC Retail station availability was 52 per cent. (BusinessDay, September 2, 2026 / Punch, September 2, 2026)

Oando Shareholders Approve Cross-Border Listings at 47th AGM Oando shareholders at the 47th annual general meeting in Lagos on September 17 authorised the board to pursue listings on other exchanges, including cross-border listings, amended the memorandum and articles to permit hybrid meetings and add provisions on digital assets, re-elected Chairman Ademola Akinrele, SAN, Omamofe Boyo, Ikeme Osakwe and Adeola Ogunsemi, and reappointed BDO Professional Services

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as auditors. The meeting approved the 2025 audited ﬁnancial statements. First-half revenue rose 19.9 per cent to N2.063 trillion with operating proﬁt of N127.8 billion against a loss of N158.7 billion a year earlier. "Operational control gives us execution capacity and creates value," Group Chief Executive Wale Tinubu said. (Arise News, September 18, 2026 / BusinessDay, September 17, 2026)

Aradel, Seplat and Oando Hold N2.86trn of Cash at Half Year Aradel Holdings, Seplat Energy and Oando held a combined N2.86 trillion of cash at June 30, 2026, up N456.34 billion in the half, according to a Nairametrics analysis of their accounts: Aradel N1.72 trillion after operating cash ﬂow of US$1.05 billion and capital expenditure of US$217.45 million, Seplat N598.35 billion with net debt down 45 per cent to US$370.7 million after repaying US$200 million of its advance payment facility, and Oando N544.92 billion

against borrowings of about N2.70 trillion. Seplat guided full-year capital expenditure of US$360 million to US$440 million and dividends of about US$270 million; Oando guided production of 40,000 to 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and plans a N200 billion rights issue and a US$1.5 billion issuance programme. (Nairametrics, September 17, 2026 / Nairametrics, September 25, 2026)

Dangote Group Targets US$115bn Turnover by 2030 The Dangote Group is targeting more than US$115 billion of turnover and US$35 billion of annual profit by 2030 on nearly US$50 billion of new investment across Africa, including the Lamu refinery and a US$8 billion LNG plant reported at 13 million tonnes a year, Aliko Dangote said during President William Ruto's tour of the Lekki refinery on September 25. The LNG plant is the only project in the plan not yet started, and no site was given. Group Chief Strategy Officer Aliyu Suleiman said the group is also looking at ports, gas infrastructure,

upstream, power and mining, and expects to finance the programme from internal cash flow and committed debt. Aliko Dangote separately said the group intends to invest more than US$10 billion in power across Nigeria and Africa within three to four years and may drop its steel plans to fund it; the group already generates 1,540MW for its own plants, 435MW of it at the refinery. (ThisDay, September 28, 2026 / The Sun, September 28, 2026 / Vanguard, September 21, 2026)

Fleissen & Company

October 2026

Ingentia, Sahara and Mainstream Name New Managing Directors Ingentia Energies appointed Victor Agbaroji Managing Director and Chief Executive from September 1, succeeding Interim Managing Director Charles Odita, under whom the company said production rose 150 per cent. Sahara Group appointed Chidilim Menakaya, previously Director of the Sahara Foundation, as Managing Director to lead its Beyond XXX strategy, and

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Mainstream Energy Solutions, operator of the Kainji and Jebba hydro plants, introduced incoming Managing Director Siraj Abdullahi at NERC on September 16. Transcorp Power named Maryam Bala Shehu, a former TotalEnergies executive in Nigeria and former board member of the Gas Aggregation Company of Nigeria, as an Independent Non-Executive

Director eﬀective September 1, subject to NERC approval and ratiﬁcation at the next AGM. Oando Energy Resources Managing Director Ainojie Irune joined the governing board of the World Energy Council's Nigerian Member Committee, chaired by Abdulrazaq Isa. Oida Group's Xenergi Limited, which bought 49.6 per cent of Premier Paints Plc in

June, has raised its holding to 51.22 per cent, and Oida chief executive Emeka Ene was appointed chairman from August 31, subject to shareholder ratiﬁcation. (ThisDay, September 3, 15 and 16, 2026 / Nairametrics, September 3, 15 and 16, 2026 / Punch, September 8, 2026 / NERC, September 16, 2026 / BusinessDay, September 15, 2026)

Fleissen & Company

October 2026

Congratulations AMNI

um International Petrole ny Development Compa

Fleissen & Company Limited congratulates AMNI International Petroleum Development Company and TotalEnergies EP Nigeria on the final investment decision for the Ima gas project, and the Nigerian financial institutions that arranged 77 per cent of its financing, on a decision that adds domestic feed gas to Train 7 and Nigerian capital to Nigerian gas.

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Fleissen & Company

October 2026

ESG GROUND TRUTH MRV and ESG intelligence from Fleissen & Company

ESG Update: Flaring Rose in August, and the Penalty Ledger Went to Audit Prepared by the ESG and Climate desk, Fleissen & Company

NUPRC data put August ﬂaring at 7.48 per cent of production, the highest monthly rate since October 2025. The Auditor-General questioned N51.09 billion of penalty remittances, ﬂare -site awardees were given a year to show progress, and the SEC set an October 15 deadline for sustainability reporting plans.

7.48%

N51.09bn

October 15

The ﬂare data.

The enforcement notice.

The penalty ledger.

The disclosure clock.

The implication.

Credible measurement is a function of commitment and not a function of geography. Adeleye Falade, Managing Director, Nigeria LNG, at Gastech 2026

Full article available on request from Fleissen & Company. ABOUT ESG GROUND TRUTH ESG Ground Truth is the monthly page of Fleissen & Company on measurement, reporting and verification. Fleissen & Company provides the critical MRV data and advisory that decision-makers need for credible ESG reporting, carbon market participation and access to climate finance across Nigeria's energy value chain. Fleissen & Company Limited, C1 Right Wing, 1st Floor, Abia House, Plot 979, 1st Avenue, Off Ahmadu Bello Way, Central Business District, Abuja.

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Fleissen & Company

October 2026

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Fleissen & Company