Warehouse space is in high demand

It may come as a surprise to discover that not every business sector has been hammered by the pandemic. While companies operating in leisure, offices and conventional retail stores have been hit hard, many in the logistics sector, in particular, large warehouses, have seen their businesses expand and an increase in profits. Why? Because demand in this area – led by the longterm trends of digitalisation, supply chain resilience and an increasing focus on sustainability – far outweighs supply.

Rob Champion, Fisher German partner and industrial property specialist, explains: “Covid-19 accelerated what was happening anyway, which was the move from bricks-and-mortar retail to online. Retailers and ecommerce businesses have been taking up warehouse space at a phenomenal rate. We’ve never seen growth like this before. Initially that wasn’t necessarily what we had expected, because we didn’t really know what Covid meant, but it’s gone from strength to strength.”

Record levels of demand and take-up mean the sector is struggling to find new sites. And that is creating exciting potential opportunities for landowners. Major companies are combing the UK for either existing buildings or possible development sites and finding that their options are few and far between. Landowners who are prepared to do deals that allow logistics developments are likely to find that the financial rewards are significant.

However, outdated notions of what may be permitted in certain areas might be dissuading potential landowners from engaging with interested parties. Rob says: “If we can marry the requirements with the appropriate land, then there’s a strong prospect of working that through the planning process because of the strong economic development angles that come with it. The process could be fast tracked.”

Another underreported fact is that well-located industrial land can now outperform residential land values in many key locations across the country. Rob explains: “Historically, landowners have often held the view that residential was going to drive the highest return on their land if they were ever to sell it. What we’re finding now is that industrial and logistics is outperforming in certain locations and can be quicker at getting through the planning system.”

Really there needs to be at least 10 acres of developable land for the bigger shed opportunities. That’s where the greatest land values lie. It’s that sort of scale of site that gets developers excited.”

This is particularly true in areas such as the traditional Midlands logistics heartland, known as the ‘Golden Triangle’. Rob adds: “However, it is fair to say we’re seeing demand in areas that perhaps haven’t been traditionally associated with big shed development and occupation, such as the M5 corridor and other major trunk routes serving key regional towns and cities. The key factors that drive demand for development land are access to labour, power and transport infrastructure.”

Up and coming geographical areas include parts of the Northwest, the M1 corridor and the M40. “The Northwest is very active at the moment, for example, we’re putting a large site into an agreement near Ellesmere Port on the Wirral (see box) and that area is attracting much more interest than it might have even a few years ago,” explains Rob. “Similarly, on the M1 corridor, north of the traditional Golden Triangle, specifically north Nottinghamshire and south Yorkshire, we are seeing a jump in activity levels. And the M40 corridor has been a hotbed of development activity in recent years. If you look at Banbury and Bicester, they’re unrecognisable now compared to how they were 10 years ago.”

Crucially, there is no indication that demand is going to let up. Paradoxically perhaps, the logistics sector could help large housing-led developments to come forward. With the Government’s ongoing aspiration to deliver 300,000 new homes each year – a target it’s failed to hit so far – many new homes will be located as part of large urban extensions or completely new settlements. Rob says: “The biggest issue is getting these areas opened up in the first instance, because invariably they require significant pieces of infrastructure to be put in at the start of the development. That can compromise the viability of these schemes. But logistics may be a solution. Historically, it’s a use class that hasn’t been associated with unlocking other types of development. That could well be changing.”

Plot size is key, especially for the so-called ‘big box’ (100,000 sq ft and larger) logistics warehouses. “Really there needs to be at least 10 acres of developable land for the bigger shed opportunities,” says Rob. “That’s where the greatest land values lie. It’s that sort of scale of site that gets the larger developers excited.”

Strong demand is also emerging for other employment uses in other locations, for example, close to new electric vehicle (EV) charging stations. As a nationwide EV charging infrastructure is currently being established, this type of development is seen as a potential catalyst for opening up additional land for logistics and other employment generating uses.

Rob is quick to emphasise that any kind of logistics development will have to meet a growing range of ‘green’ and sustainable criteria. The COP 26 climate change summit in Glasgow has resulted in already eco-

conscious developers sharpening their commitment to sustainable building. Recent legislation, such as the longawaited Environment Bill, which gained Royal Assent last November, mean that there is now also a legal imperative for developers, landowners and landlords to ensure they fully understand and comply with new requirements relating to concepts such as biodiversity net gain.

Rob explains: “There is now a requirement for development to deliver in excess of 10 per cent gain in biodiversity, either on site, or if it that’s not possible, then at an alternative location. We are talking to some of the big shed developers around how they are going to tackle this, but when it comes to delivering 10 per cent while also trying to maximise a developable area on a site, it’s going to be very tricky to marry the two together in many cases.”

This is where ‘offsetting’ comes into play, a principle which allows developers to meet biodiversity net gain requirements away from a development site (see page 18). And when it comes to the sustainability of existing logistics buildings, landlords are having to work out how to meet energy efficiency targets and potentially improve net zero credentials (see net zero feature on page 10).

Looking ahead, growth in logistics property rents and higher land values associated with logistics developments could be tempered by increasing construction costs and there is therefore an expectation that they may now plateau after rising rapidly over the last 12-18 months. Rob notes: “If it had not been for the significant growth in rents and sharp decline in yields then that would already have put a brake on the increase in land values.”

Overall, he is positive about the sector’s future prospects: “It’s been a strange couple of years, because for many people it has been an incredibly tough time and we’ve all faced challenges. However, given our close links with the warehousing market in particular, this area for us as a business, has been fruitful and it doesn’t show signs of letting up any time soon.”

Turkish company Getir, a leader in superfast home delivery, is expanding in the UK. Getir, which means ‘bring’ in Turkish, was founded in 2015 and, via its mobile app, offers a 10-15 minute delivery service for grocery items, in addition to a courier service for restaurant food deliveries. The firm – valued at US$7.7 billion in 2020 – has prospered during the pandemic and is now looking to raise more than US$1 billion to finance overseas expansion.

Getir uses a network of ‘dark stores’ (an industry term for small logistics warehouses) to enable it to deliver locally. The business already runs 500 dark stores in 35 cities in five countries: UK, Germany, France, Netherlands and Turkey, and is looking to expand further in the UK.

Fisher German is carrying out a nationwide search and acquisitions programme for Getir. Ideal sites are between 500 and 5,000 sq ft, plus parking, located very close to residential areas in cities including: London, Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool, Bristol, Leeds/Bradford, Cardiff, Leicester, Southampton, Nottingham, Portsmouth, Bournemouth, Sheffield, Cambridge, Edinburgh, Coventry, Glasgow and Oxford.

This 114-acre site is owned by a longstanding client and is partly designated greenbelt and partly commercial use. Heads of terms have now been agreed on a development agreement and an outline planning application will be submitted in due course. The site already has significant occupier interest.

Some 132 acres either side of the A34 adjacent to the existing Redhill Business Park where a promotion and development agreement is in place with Stoford Developments. A first phase, draw down of 70 acres, is now seeing the delivery of a 670,000 sq ft distribution centre for Pets At Home and installation of a major roundabout on the A34. The remaining land is suitable for either logistics space or residential.

Fisher German’s landowner clients have struck an agreement with developer Tritax Symmetry for a 200-acre site, capable of delivering 3.2 million sq ft of industrial and logistics space, subject to planning. Tritax is gearing up to submit an outline planning application imminently.

07530 259915

rob.champion@fishergerman.co.uk

With many building stone quarries dating back to Victorian times, these often small-scale ventures were opened to provide building materials for their local areas. But the importation of stone from abroad and a trend away from the use of traditional materials such as these made many sites uneconomic and since closure they have sat dormant in the landscape.

But times have changed and with planning policy focusing on the use of local stone for housebuilding, in tandem with increasing consumer demand for locally sourced materials, many such quarries now have the potential for a new lease of life. William Gagie, partner at Fisher German, explains: “A current rise in housebuilding, in parallel with planning authorities stipulating they want local vernacular stone used in new homes in villages, means they will blend in, rather than building them from mass-produced red brick, which would be the cheaper alternative but less appealing.”

He adds that to get the match of texture and colour to older buildings in an area will probably require products from a local quarry because stone varies in both of these qualities from area to area. Lincolnshire limestone, for example, has a white-ish hue, so would look completely out of place in the Cotswolds where the limestone tends to have warm honey tones.

Heritage stone quarries located on farms and estates tend to follow a ‘limestone band’, which can be clearly followed on geological maps of the UK. The geology drives the location of the quarries. William explains: “The limestone band starts in the Cotswolds, works its way through north Oxfordshire and across into Northamptonshire, Leicestershire and then up into Lincolnshire.”

What do quarries and the world of film and TV have in common? You’d be forgiven for thinking nothing at all. But you would be wrong. Large-scale quarries, in fact, make great filming locations for major TV drama series and Hollywood blockbusters.

Unlike heritage quarries, these sites – typically former gravel or hard rock pits – are at the other end of the scale and can extend over many acres. Matthew Trewartha, partner at Fisher German, explains: “They tend to be big open spaces that can’t be damaged. Film and TV crews can build stuff there, then crash it, burn it and blow it up.” Historical TV drama Outlander, filmed at a redundant quarry in Scotland, is a prime example of a successful alternative use. Matthew, who advised the landowner, says: “The production was on site for four years. They built a whole set up there.”

Spotting opportunities for income-producing alternative uses and dealing with all of the administrative and legal issues associated with it might be difficult for the blue chip landowners that often retain ownership of large quarries and similar sites. Matthew points out that Fisher German’s Non-Operational Property Management service is well-placed to assist: “These companies aren’t property businesses, so we add value by expertly managing land, as well as structures that might be built on it such as residential properties or telecoms masts, and ensuring it is all readily available, if needed, for the landowner’s own operations or disposal."

These quarries tend to be small in size, making them less obtrusive on their locality. “They’re rarely bigger than five acres,” says William, “As one area is worked out and the quarry is extended, the original areas are progressively restored, meaning only small areas are exposed at any one time.”

The process of quarrying often includes restoration of the site on an ‘as you go’ basis. William notes: “Once an area has been exhausted it isn’t just left as a scar on the landscape but is subject to an approved restoration scheme to restore its appearance and bring it back into use. It tends to be a progressive process.

“We can get a big picture view from geological survey plans of where various minerals are, and the broad types of stone likely to be found in a particular location, but they are high level. To be absolutely certain, it is necessary to carry out site investigations, either via boreholes or trial pitting.

“For example, we were recently on-site in Yorkshire, digging various trial pits with a mechanical digger to uncover samples from the bottom of the excavations. These are then bagged up and sent away for testing to understand exactly what stone we have, what its strength is and whether it’s suitable for construction use.”

Now that local building stone is back in favour, many heritage quarries can be straightforward to reopen from a practical and geological point of view, but planning issues need to be addressed to upgrade a dormant consent into an operational one.

“Often planning will need to be refreshed to revive a dormant quarry. It’s obviously easier to do that when you’ve got a historic consent, even if it has fallen dormant, than where you’ve got no consent at all,” notes William. With dormant quarries often lying relatively close to existing towns and villages, local opposition and potential planning issues might need to be factored into the restoration process.

However, locally quarried stone is now seen as a more environmentally friendly product, as it can involve fewer carbon transport miles, require less production energy and any waste can be recycled for aggregate use, meaning heritage quarries (either previously quarried sites or new operations) could be viewed more favourably than they were in the past. “As with any application there is likely to be some local concern,” says William, “but because the quarries are small scale, not producing a lot of stone and not a big operation in terms of footprint – there is rarely any blasting taking place – those concerns can often be comprehensively assuaged.”

He adds: “A lot of these sites were never habilitated when they were abandoned the first time around and therefore if they are reopened, there could be an opportunity to do some more positive land restoration when they do become exhausted.”

07551 152691

william.gagie@fishergerman.co.uk

07971 457015

matthew.trewartha@fishergerman.co.uk

Scott O’Dell is a Chartered Member of The Royal Town Planning Institute (RTPI) and is working on its Rural Planning in the 2020s project, which will consider how rural planning in the UK and Ireland will need to change to deal with the challenges these areas currently face, including climate change and flooding.

He has also just been asked by the RTPI to sit on its brand review panel.

Matthew Allen now leads the National Country Agency Team (NCAT). NCAT specialise in the sale of complex and higher value property including country houses, farms and estates. The unique properties NCAT look after often have unpredictable marketplaces and are in short supply, the sale is not seen as a short-term disposal objective, but a long-standing project with clients geared to achieving the optimum future sale.

With more than 15 years of professional experience as a qualified chartered surveyor and valuer, Matthew has built a reputation for giving exceptional advice to his clients, especially in advising on complex country sales.

Matthew has also been included in the Spears Property Advisors Index 2022 as a ‘Top Recommended’ Country Specialist in the UK.

During the first quarter of 2022, there have been 54 promotions across Fisher German as part of its ongoing growth, including one partner promotion and seven progressions within the partnership. The promotions have been part of the firm’s career progression framework, which gives all employees a clear pathway to advance within the business.

Sam Parton, in the infrastructure services division, has been invited to join the partnership. He joined Fisher German as a graduate in August 2010 and has since worked his way up through the business. As part of his role as partner, Sam will lead a team involved in the delivery of a Nationally Significant Infrastructure Project (NSIP) in the East of England.

Liberty Stones, Alasdair Dunne, Ben Marshalsay, Paul Brown, Seb Kingsley and Ruth Ofield have all progressed to more senior roles within the partnership. In addition, Jenny Occleshaw, Rachel Clipsham, Ben Flint, Matthew Davis, Thomas Blake, Emanuel Skelton, John Jones and Martin Blake have all been promoted to associate director.

A further 39 promotions have been made across the offices in line with the firm’s career progression framework.

Senior partner Duncan Bedhall said: “I would like to congratulate all of those within the firm who have received promotions. The high number that has been awarded is recognition of our continued growth and the success of our career progression framework, which gives all colleagues an opportunity to advance in the firm if they aspire to do so. I am confident that this success will continue moving forward as we are awarded an increasing number of contracts by both new and existing clients, and we are looking ahead to some exciting new projects that we have on the horizon.”

Christopher Ussher has joined Fisher German, bringing a wealth of expertise in estate management and diversification. Christopher's experience is in rural property management, with a particular focus on diversification, planning and fundraising.

He was previously chief executive at Harewood House Trust and resident land agent at Harewood Estate for 25 years. During this time, he played an integral part in the development of the Emmerdale television film set on the estate and went on to secure filming opportunities with Heartbeat, ATouch of Frost and At Home with the Braithwaites.

Iwas introduced to surveying by my father Ian, a land agent. I decided to take the commercial option when I held his tape to measure up a portfolio of Bass Pubs as a kid.

After I graduated from De Montfort University in 1992 I started work as a graduate industrial letting agent. My first experience of investment came early when I spotted a development funding opportunity in Park Road Retail Park in Pontefract.

Even back then my training would have been described as ‘old school’ and the scale of the project was larger than I was prepared for. When I raised the opportunity with the office senior partner, his response was, “Miles, it’s just a couple of extra noughts. Get on with it”. This encouraged me to set off on a journey to specialise in investment.

I went on to work for King Sturge, LSH and Donaldsons throughout the 1990s and 2000s before setting up my own niche investment agency, RY Partnership, in 2009.

Now I work out of Fisher German’s Doncaster office, although my role is commercial investment agency.

On a typical day I'm up at 6.30am, I feed the dog, take my daughter to feed her pony, then drive to the office or to site, or a meeting. I go through new opportunities that have come in over the past 24 hours and introduce those worth pursuing to clients.

I chase agents to see what they are going to be selling and follow up on any pitches to make sure ongoing transactions are progressing. I try to be on the road at least once a week, looking at opportunities in the flesh. Asset management angles are often only apparent on site rather than in a brochure. Every generation tries to find a short cut for experience, but there isn’t one. It’s time served at the coal face that matters.

Since I started, the most significant change is the speed of communication. In 1992 best bids meant standing round the fax machine and waiting to see what came in. There were no emails. It was post or phone so surveyors had to use their own judgement on many issues and then clarify with the client afterwards as it wasn’t possible to get client’s instructions to every single minor issue in real time.

I grew up in rural north Nottinghamshire and have always wanted to go back to a similar setting, so my recent move to north Yorkshire finally achieved this goal.

Before kids, I spent a lot of time building and then racing a kit car. However, the time required for this wasn’t compatible with a young family. I also like to ski and scuba dive, particularly wreck diving whenever possible. Having grown up with horses and ridden most of my life I’ve been drawn back into this as a groom and chauffeur by my daughters. The village also has a good pub, which most of the locals use, so is great for that all-important socialising.

I like variety. For me, every day is a school day but a good work-life balance is essential to achieve my ultimate goals of health, wealth and happiness.

Most people judge themselves by specific targets – the biggest fee etc. For me, having an unusual name and a father in the same business, I spent a lot of my career being asked if I was related to my father, Ian, which led to a very specific goal.

This was finally achieved when my father was doing a valuation in Galashiels and he was asked was he related to Miles!

There is still a lack of certainty around future public funding in the industry and the private market opportunities that natural capital might bring. At the time of writing, rising commodity prices and soaring input costs, fuelled by the conflict in Ukraine, have bought food security back into focus.

There has been much debate on the Government’s focus for the agricultural industry, with subsidy changes targeted at ‘public goods’ such as environmental resource protection, climate change mitigation and habitat creation as priority over and above food production.

At present the payment rates in the recently announced Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) soil standard, the first element of Environmental Land Management (ELM) schemes, do not look sufficient to entice many farmers. Some will meet the requirements of SFI with limited changes to their systems. For others, the increase in input costs, along with the future potential for additional private funding through a developing carbon market, may provide the motivation to consider the principles of the schemes.

While grain prices are at an unprecedented high, they have been outpaced by increases in fuel and fertiliser cost meaning that net margins are likely to be no better than in recent years, but cash flow risks are significantly higher.

As we plan harvest 2023, farmers will have to make difficult decisions about the working capital required to fund crops. Recent volatility looks set to continue; it is therefore essential that farmers and landowners understand their margins and risk, where possible maintaining an agile system that can be adapted to change and consider, where appropriate, alternative income streams or structures to mitigate risk.

07530 259915

david.kinnersley@fishergerman.co.uk

The past year has been pretty manic across all divisions as the UK economy and our markets have bounced back following the pandemic. However, I am writing this at a time of war in Ukraine and the full effects on the global economy are not yet known.

The warehousing market has been particularly active with constant strong demand for space at a time when most of our clients have little available. We have never seen such a low vacancy rate in our portfolio, coupled with high levels of rent collection and minimal defaults. These factors have led to considerable rental growth and strong capital value increases.

The office market has been somewhat subdued while businesses decide what their working practices will be in the future. There does, however, seem to be some improvement in sentiment as firms realise that remote working has its problems. I think that we will arrive at a model that permits flexible working, while revolving around an office hub. It could be that more space is actually required to cope with this and the space will need to be high quality.

Commercial property has, with the exception of retail, recovered well, but we must be mindful of inflationary pressures that have been building over the past year. The increase in rents and an improving investment market have managed to absorb this inflation. However, we must consider the mounting pressures on the average household, as increases in the cost of living (particularly fuel) will erode discretionary expenditure unless wages grow similarly. If people’s discretionary spending disappears and coincides with commercial rents hitting unaffordable levels, then the market could turn. Given this and the uncertainty of the Ukraine war, we must remain vigilant and be prepared to react quickly.

07831 824663

duncan.bedhall@fishergerman.co.uk

The energy and sustainability sectors are a hive of activity.

This time last year electricity generators and suppliers were having to adjust to huge drop-offs in demand brought about by Covid-19 invoked changes in consumer behaviour. We are in a period of grid transition in any case as we continue to phase out fossil fuels and rely more on renewable technologies. So this only put further emphasis on the growing importance of reactive power, grid balancing and inertia schemes, which help manage intermittency and ensure security of supply. Phase 3 of National Grid’s Stability Pathfinder programme is underway, focusing on increasing inertia and short circuit level and we are continuing to work with clients on potential schemes.

COP26 finally happened late last year and this brought climate change firmly back into focus following something of an enforced hiatus due to the pandemic. As is often the case where politicians are involved, generally it was lacking in detail, although it did bring forward some eye-catching policy announcements, which will undoubtedly create both challenges and opportunities in the medium and long term. More on this can be seen on page 6 and we are working hard to solve problems and deliver solutions for our clients.

Of more recent and pressing concern is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Ofgem’s decision to increase the energy price cap. The former triggered UK power prices to reach an all-time high, while the latter has exacerbated the cost of living crisis, adding to the energy bills of an estimated 22 million customers.

All told, never has there been a more appropriate time to step back, look at what you own and consider sustainable energy options.

07918 677571

darren.edwards@fishergerman.co.uk

The demand for both consented and strategic land has given continued rise to upward pressure on land values.

The supply of consented land, however, does not show signs of increasing any time soon. In 2021 nearly 250,000 dwellings were delivered in England, which is remarkable considering some of the issues still surrounding working practices as a result of pandemic restrictions. However, there were also the lowest number of consents granted for many years.

This latter fact does not show any signs of improving, especially given recent reports showing the biggest ever slowdown in new housing delivery among Green Belt Local Authorities. Green Belt is a land-use constraint, but the trouble is many Green Belt-heavy local authorities do not have up-to-date local plans. In some cases they are abandoning many years of preparation due to local politics and the hope that central Government will reduce the housing numbers for these afflicted areas.

As a result of the poor supply, we are finding that the acquisition strategies of many house builders are changing drastically – both in terms of quantum of development and in terms of location/revenues. We have certainly seen the result of this in recent tenders producing a record number of offers and indeed record land values.

Such examples of this can be seen in much larger ‘urban extension’ sites being acquired by single purchasers; one recently completed transaction being The Lakes to the north of Lichfield, consented for 750 dwellings, bought by Redrow Homes.

Although values may not increase at such a rate previously seen last year, for the remainder of 2022 we still believe the appetite for all development land, be it consented residential or strategic commercial and/or residential, will only continue to be high.

01530 567465

ben.marshalsay@fishergerman.co.uk

If you are monitoring the residential property market, you will probably be aware that there is more demand for properties than there are properties coming to the market. This imbalance between supply and demand is continuing to drive prices upwards.

It’s interesting to speculate whether these conditions will persist. Continuing inflationary pressures are understandably driving base rate increases as the Bank of England tries to control the pressure. Thus far, mortgage rates have not significantly moved with the rising base rate because lenders have absorbed the cost into their margins rather than passing it onto borrowers. Looking ahead, we will undoubtedly see lenders passing on these increases.

Together with rising borrowing rates, the cost of living squeeze is also likely to impact buyer behaviour as their spending power is reduced. There would appear to be a consensus of opinion that price rises and transactional volumes will begin to slow as we move through 2022 and perhaps be back to pre-pandemic averages in 2023. In many ways, this is a positive thing for the property market. A steady return to normality rather than an uncomfortable market correction.

One of the more difficult factors to interpret in the property market is buyer behaviour driven by desire rather than economic factors. You may have come across a new phrase associated with property in the countryside – ‘the race for space’. The race refers to a dynamic part of the property market driven by those who have taken advantage, or hope to take advantage, of more flexible working to move further from the office and to relocate to larger houses with bigger gardens and perhaps a more rural way of life. Despite economic influences, this change in buyer behaviour shows no sign abating and is a very significant market driver.

07501 720412

alasdair.dunne@fishergerman.co.uk

It was hoped that there would be spring optimism in the air but having lived through the past two years with the impact of Covid-19 across all areas of the economy, we are now faced with another threat that most of us have no reference point for. The events that are unfolding in Ukraine highlight the ‘head in sand’ stance that has been taken with regard to energy, water security and connectivity in the UK market. The flip-flopping of support, both of a planning and financial nature, has left us with no clear solution and, while significant inroads are being seen across our sector, this should have already been in place.

The pressures that we are now seeing as oil and gas prices surge, coupled with the underinvestment in alternative solutions, are now showing. The surge in major project activity, while very welcome, shows that there are shortages across all areas, knowledge, skilled individuals, materials and at a most basic level connection points where the electricity or gas generated can be supplied into the national grid. In the case of water the industry is looking at collective solutions as to how we can provide water to all, with movement and storage solutions across the country, which is reminiscent of the Victorian/ Edwardian golden age of engineering, on which we have so heavily relied over the years.

Finally, the fibre roll-out to get all of us connected to high speed broadband is being delivered, but for rural communities it is still not planned for many until 2026.

There is huge opportunity and I’m pleased to say that we are focused on meeting those opportunities as they present themselves to us.

01530 410813

clare.phillipson@fishergerman.co.uk

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