FORESIGHT Climate & Energy Autumn/Winter 2020 issue

FORESIGHT — 11 Climate & Energy

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THE WORLD ELECTRIFIED Decarbonisation turbocharged

GRID INFRASTRUCTURE

CLEAN HEATING

TRANSPORT

CEMENT & STEEL

Policy vital for full electrification

Danish heating cleans up its act

Hydrogen trains tracking hot

Heavy industry to carbon light

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A CARBON-FREE WORLD

Electrification is the way to decarbonisation

FORESIGHT Climate & Energy AUTUMN / WINTER 2020

PUBLISHER FORESIGHT Media Group

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EDITOR David Weston david@foresightdk.com

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We now know we can secure the energy we need from zero carbon sources. Decarbonisation of the world’s economy is no longer the insurmountable challenge facing mankind that it was just a few years ago. Electrification is the key.

Electricity is an energy carrier that enables all sources of energy to be clean at their point of use. For this reason alone, electrification of energy use is a good idea. Electricity, however, is only as clean as the energy source from which it is generated, which can be dirty or clean.

When energy is harnessed from the power of water flowing, the wind blowing or heat radiating from the sun and converted to electricity, the world’s decarbonisation goals are brought within reach.

Clean electrification of the global economy requires lots more electricity from renewable sources of energy. As well as providing light and powering appliances, green electricity must charge our cars, heat our buildings, and energise industrial processes heavily dependent on fossil fuel. More demand for electricity requires more of our power systems and more of the transmission and distribution wires designed for a previous age of centralised fossil fuel generation. The capacity of the wires must be boosted and power systems far better interconnected. Joined up and robust power systems are capable of absorbing shocks that destabilise the delicate balance of supply and demand in smaller, weaker systems.

Heating indoor spaces can be done cheaply and cleanly in urban areas using heating networks served by renewable energy. Denmark has shown the way. The scale of change needed is not to be underestimated, but even a country with challenges the size of those in the UK can decarbonise its heating and lower its cost, given sufficient political will to do so.

Electricity will also be needed to power electrolysers to produce hydrogen, a process that is entirely free of carbon emissions, as is its use. Hydrogen fuel cells hold potential to decarbonise heavy transport and hydrogen may replace fossil fuels in some industrial processes.

Hydrogen trains are showing great promise and a few are in commercial operation. A consensus is emerging that these are the best applications for hydrogen and talk of using it in power and heating systems is a distraction.

The most carbon intensive use of fossil fuel is in heavy industry.

Full electrification of cement and steel manufacturing, the two biggest sinners, would require new processes, innovations that may come up short for total decarbonisation. They are industries that need serious government help, not protection..

If nothing else, our deep dive into electrification is a positive story of human ingenuity at work. No longer is decarbonisation an aspiration impossible to achieve. Through electrification it can be done.

David Weston EDITOR-IN-CHIEF

CONTENT

THE BIG PICTURE

GRID INFRASTRUCTURE

CLEAN HEATING

TRANSPORT

FOSSIL FUEL CAN BE LEFT IN THE GROUND

THE MISSING LINKS OF THE EUROPEAN ENERGY TRANSITION

HOW TO DECARBONISE THE BUILDING STOCK IN BRITAIN

CHARGING AHEAD

Interconnection gaps in Europe's power systems must be closed to deliver carbon free electrification

Gas and oil fired heating appliances in each and every building have no place in a net-zero world

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BLUEPRINT FOR INNOVATIVE TRANSMISSION

DECARBONISED HEAT WITHIN A DECADE IN DENMARK

Offshore wind farm connections combined with power system interconnectors boost transmission efficiency, cutting cost

Heat pumps running on renewables electricity embedded in urban heating networks demonstrate efficient electrification of space heating

The ecological destruction caused by fossil fuel extraction, exemplified by the Alberta tar sands, no longer has to continue PAGE 8

UP FRONT ELECTRIFICATION FOR DECARBONISATION

Renewable energy is now affordable, making electrification of energy supply the best option for decarbonisation PAGE 10

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BETTER GRID POLICY VITAL FOR FULL SCALE ELECTRIFICATION

The case for rolling out vast public charging networks suffers under close examination PAGE 46

WHY HYDROGEN TRAINS ARE TRACKING HOT

It could be the railways that spearhead green hydrogen’s breakthrough in the electrification of energy supply PAGE 54

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Public opposition is the biggest obstacle in Europe to building transmission infrastructure

CEMENT & STEEL HEAVY INDUSTRY TO CARBON LIGHT

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Full electrification of cement and steel manufacturing would require new processes that may not transpire to achieve total decarbonisation

FEDERAL GREEN GRID VISION GONE MISSING IN AMERICA

Lack of sufficient transmission capacity is a mighty roadblock

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The Big Picture If the Canadian province of Alberta was a country in its own right, it would be the fifth largest oil producing economy in the world. Most of the oil comes from its tar sands, pictured, a jarring example of the ecological destruction caused by fossil fuel extraction. It need not continue. The rise of aordable renewable energy has made clean electrification of the energy needs of mankind entirely possible, both directly and indirectly through production of hydrogen. Fossil fuels can be left in the ground, doing no harm.

PHOTO Russ Heinl

UP FRONT Generating electricity from the sun and the wind has become so cheap that despite the extra expense their variable supply incurs for power system management, their cost is undercutting that of fossil fuel. It is the affordability of renewables that makes direct and indirect electrification of heating, transportation and some industrial processes possible.

Ridding the world of carbon pollution is no longer a pipedream, but a job to get done

Electrification for decarbonisation

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Time is of the essence, with less than 100 years left to avert climate catastrophe: the world cannot be allowed to warm more than 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures. Projections by energy analysts differ in detail, but in broad terms electrification of energy use will need to at least double by 2050, up from 2025% in 2020. Necessity is the mother of invention and already human ingenuity has risen to the challenge.

The technologies to affordably decarbonise the world through electrification are already at our disposal.

“By 2050, an astounding 17,000 gigawatts (GW) of installed solar and wind capacity will be generating 62% of the world’s electricity needs,” says Norwegian energy advisory firm DNV GL, a global quality assurance and risk management provider. This is 14 times today’s 1.25 TW capacity of wind and solar. The growth in renewable energy capacity will be driven by increased electricity demand as electrification of transportation and heating ramps up along with deFORESIGHT

Trending The part played by electricity in meeting energy demand is set to dominate the stage by 2050, or even well before if this graphic from the perspective of late summer 2020 proves to be a conservative view TEXT David Weston

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lectrification of the global economy will be the cheapest and cleanest way of getting the world off its dependence for energy on the combustion of fossil fuels, says the International Energy Agency (IEA), an inter-governmental advisory body. Electricity can carry the energy captured from renewable sources like the wind and the sun directly to its point of use. Indirectly, through the process of electrolysis, renewables electricity can create a secondary energy carrier, hydrogen gas. Hydrogen can be combusted without pollution for industrial processes that require extremely high temperatures hard for electricity to sustain and for energy uses that cannot be powered from the grid or using batteries, such as some forms of transportation.

What cannot be electrified, directly or indirectly, will be reliant on bio-fuels, the combustion of which does not upset the world’s fine ecological balance in the way that burning fossil fuels has done.

King coal loses its throne to renewables electricity World final energy demand in radical transition

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mand for green hydrogen. Solar and wind will be the cheapest source of generation and that will be “irrespective of the vital shift” to a future with no more carbon emitted than the world can sustain, DNV GL adds.

In its Energy Transition Outlook 2020 report, DNV GL says electricity in 2019 met 20% of the world’s final energy demand. By 2050, the share of electricity will be 41% of final energy demand. Electricity will meet more demand for energy than any other single technology by mid-century, DNV GL says. Demand for electricity will double from 24 petawatt-hours a year (PWh/year) to 48 PWh/year by 2050, demonstrating the growing role of electricity as the main source of energy in the ongoing decarbonisation of the economy. It will also be the catalyst to produce other fuels like hydrogen and ammonia for the transport and heavy industry sectors, says DNV GL. The projections are grounded in realism. Nobody claims electricity can be used to meet every type of FORESIGHT

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energy demand. “You can get to a fully decarbonised scenario without fully electrifying everything. Certainly between electricity and hydrogen, that’s where the future is going to be. There’s a lot that needs to be electrified but it’s not the complete answer,” says Dave Jones from Ember, a UK climate think tank.

Even European trade body Eurelectric, concedes that point. “We believe the future is electric, that means first of all it’s a bright and exciting future. It’s also one that is much more electric, it’s not all electric,” says Eurelectric’s Kristian Ruby. He believes direct electrification—replacing the use of heat energy with electrical energy—will mean that electricity makes up 50-60% of final energy consumption in Europe. Indirect electrification—using electricity to produce other fuels like hydrogen—will be “a significant part” of the rest. “That is a very different world to the one we have today where we’re talking more 20-25% of total final energy consumption. There’s a signifi11

ELECTRICITY INFRASTRUCTURE No matter how much wind and solar power is generated, the energy transition cannot be achieved without a built-for-purpose electricity infrastructure. Gaps in the interconnections of Europe’s grid network and lack of capacity on the wires where it is needed most will halt green electrification of energy. Power system operators have a plan. The issue is implementation

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he stated goals of Europe’s energy transition—32% renewables by 2030 and 50% by 2040—are on shaky ground without radical expansion, robust interconnection and redevelopment of the continent’s electricity transmission highways and distribution networks. The existing grid system is inadequate for the task ahead. At the rate of network upgrades seen to date, the EU would struggle to get even halfway to its goals, no matter how much new wind and solar capacity is built. The grid is not designed to deal with the transition from a limited number of large power stations with controllable output to a system reliant on variable input from many thousands of smaller and dispersed units.

The more the power systems of Europe are robustly linked to one another, the more the supply of electricity can be based on variable energy sources, like solar and wind, without compromising security of supply. Indeed, the broader the supplier base, the more secure the system becomes. What is required is completion of plans for 35 GW of cross-border grid 14

investment by 2025, a further 50 GW by 2030 and another 43 GW by 2040, according to the European Network of Transition System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E). Its job is to co-ordinate the cross-border power system operations, system development and electricity market activities of 42 electricity transmission system operators (TSOs) across 35 countries.

GERMAN ISSUE Germany’s location in the middle of the European continent makes its grid investment fundamental to achieving ENTSO-E’s plans. But development of the country’s electricity infrastructure is failing to keep up with the growth of wind and solar capacity. Transmission bottlenecks, both internally and across its national borders, are an increasing problem for the further growth of renewable energy.

Over the continent as a whole, transmission of wind power south from the windy locations of northern Europe, on land and offshore, is hampered by lack of sufficient network capacity, as is the transFORESIGHT

Bottleneck Congested links in the transmission wires interconnecting power systems are raising the cost of renewable energy and hindering its uptake

TEXT Drew Robb and David Weston ILLUSTRATION Hvass & Hannibal

The vital missing links of the European energy transition

ELECTRICITY INFRASTRUCTURE A new transmission line across the Baltic Sea shows that a more integrated European power network is not only steadily evolving, but that innovative approaches to infrastructure design can bring down the cost of the energy transition. A new interconnection between Denmark and Germany that takes in offshore wind farms gives a glimpse of a much more connected electricity future

Blueprint for innovative transmission

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the so-called continental Europe synchronous area.

“Constructing the back-to-back converter on land is economically beneficial and allows for easier maintenance compared to the installation on an offshore platform,” Energinet notes.

The two TSOs had originally planned to install converter stations within Denmark, Germany and offshore, in a multi-terminal solution, says Hanne Storm Edlefsen, area manager at Energinet. The call for tenders to provide and install the hardware, however, called the feasibility of the configuration into question. The system was redesigned to be a mostly AC solution with back-to-back converters in Germany. Use of back-to-back converters is not uncommon where asynchronous systems are connected, such as the Lithuania-Poland link and the Mexico-United States link.

Energinet expects capacity utilisation of the interconnector to be similar to that achieved for the 600 MW Kontek onshore link between the same grid bidding zones in Denmark and Germany, which has been in operation since 1996 and is due to be replaced. According to the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E), in 2017 FORESIGHT

Grid planning Transmission operators are developing new designs for interconnectors that improve integration of clean electricity TEXT David Weston ILLUSTRATION Hvass & Hannibal

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ubbed the Combined Grid Solution (CGS), an interconnection that links the German and Danish power systems, boosting the reliability of supply to customers in both countries, also takes in two offshore wind farms: Krieger’s Flak at 600 MW in Danish waters and Baltic 2 at 288 MW in German seas. With the wind projects separated by just 30 kilometres, the transmission system operators (TSOs) on each side of the border, Energinet in Denmark and 50Hertz in Germany, saw an opportunity to link the electrical infrastructure of the two projects, provide new flexibility to the region’s grid systems, and better utilise the capacity of the cables involved. The benefits are lower costs resulting in cheaper electricity.

The Combined Grid Solution was made possible by use of a back-to-back converter, located in northern Germany. It supports the connection of the asynchronous current power grids of eastern Denmark and Germany, despite their different technical attributes.

The first of two voltage source converters transforms the alternative current (AC) from the Nordic system into direct current before the second converter transforms it back to alternating current but now matching

ELECTRICITY INFRASTRUCTURE Without a European grid up to the task of not only meeting more demand for electricity, but also assimilating it from distributed renewables, green electrification of heating and transport is stymied from the start. Decarbonisation requires new infrastructure, yet the public is having none of it. Winning over the people to grid expansion needs to be a political priority, while a more immediate fix is to make the existing wires work better

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here is no way around it. From Ireland to Italy, Europe’s decarbonisation goals will not be met without significantly more grid investment, both in distribution and transmission networks. Leveraging those investments may be more of a political, than a regulatory or even a financial issue.

Ireland is aiming for 70% of its electricity to come from renewable energy sources by 2030, requiring up to 9.2 GW of new power capacity, primarily wind and solar, equivalent to about 80% of the country’s total generating capacity today. “Such a major expansion requires an exceptionally large investment in the Irish electricity industry and not only in the generation facilities themselves,” states the Irish Academy of Engineering (IAE) in an October 2020 briefing paper on the future of the country’s electricity transmission network.

Warning that 2030 goals could be endangered without large-scale investments in the network, the academy also notes that Ireland has faced increased

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public resistance to transmission projects over the past few decades. One key piece of planned infrastructure, a 150 kilometre north-south interconnector cable first proposed in 2005, is still in the permitting process. It and other planned projects are bedevilled by objections from concerned citizens.

Public opposition is the single biggest obstacle to building the necessary transmission infrastructure and that in turn is a political issue, believes Don Moore, chair of the IAE’s energy and climate change committee. “We don’t think this is a matter that can be left to power companies or to grid companies anymore. The government has to take the lead. Politicians are reluctant to stick their neck out for things like this, but they have to convince the public that, if it wants decarbonisation—and people say they do— this is a price that needs to be paid. It can’t be done without infrastructure.”

Ireland is not alone in the need to scale up renewables generation and grid infrastructure and in facing FORESIGHT

Policy priority Cohesive collaboration on transmission infrastructure policy across Europe can unlock greater electrification potential

TEXT Heather O’Brian ILLUSTRATION Hvass & Hannibal

Better grid policy for full scale electrification

ELECTRICITY INFRASTRUCTURE As the United States legislates for higher shares of renewables, the development of its straggling and disjointed grid network to match its clean energy ambitions is lagging behind.

A market orientated approach to modernising its power system infrastructure will only achieve so much without much more regulatory support from federal and state level authorities

Federal green grid vision gone missing in America

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merica’s electricity network could be considered the oldest trans-continental grid in the world. Coast-to-coast electrification took place in the US well in advance of Europe. Many lines in operation are more than 90 years old, while the bulk of the network has been in use for half a century.

PJM Interconnection, a regional transmission organisation (RTO) serving 13 states in eastern America has assets that date back many decades. Two-thirds of its infrastructure is more than 40 years old, while the other third has passed the half-century mark. Some local lines at voltages below 230 kV are approaching 90 years old.

The US transmission grid is also as big as it is old.

Hundreds of thousands of miles of high voltage power lines and millions of miles of low voltage distribution cables connect thousands of power stations to hundreds of millions of electricity consumers. There are more than 161,000 kilometres of transmission wires of 345 kV or greater. It would be tempting to assume that installation of new transmission lines as market 28

demand drives growth is just an accepted way of life in the US. Unfortunately for the growth of renewable energy, that is not the case. Massive hurdles block the construction of a few high voltage super-highways, preventing the establishment of a nationwide macro grid to get renewables generation to demand centres and to ease the task of balancing their variable supply by opening access to power from a wider geographical area.

The demise in 2019 of Clean Line Energy, a private US transmission infrastructure developer, serves as a cautionary tale on how reliance on market forces can backfire. Led by wind industry veteran Michael Skelly, Clean Line had ambitions to develop five long distance, high voltage transmission lines to carry over 16.5 GW of renewable generation across the United States. Of its five projects, three were sold to renewable energy project developers, a fourth was shelved, and a fifth was blocked by legislators in Iowa. Clean Line Energy had received $100 million from investors, showing that money is not the answer to everything.

FORESIGHT

Make transmission great again New transmission capacity being built in the US has slowed

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The US, despite the number and length of the wires criss-crossing the country, does not have a single interlinked electricity grid. PJM is part of the Eastern Interconnection grid, one of three major transmission system areas. The Eastern Interconnect stretches from the Atlantic coast to the Rocky Mountains. The Western Interconnect serves the other side of the Rockies, and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) serves much of huge and sprawling Texas.

LABYRINTH WITHOUT STRENGTH Each system operates independently, with no synchronisation of power flows between them. Alternating current (AC) power from one has to be converted to direct current (DC), transferred to the neighbouring interconnection before being converted back to AC. These compartmentalised, inflexible and poorly linked power systems are now struggling to deal with the demands of traditional thermal generation, let alone the increasing levels of variable renewables.

The fragmentation runs deeper still. The company FORESIGHT

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selling power can be a non-profit municipal utility, a member-owned cooperative, an investor-owned utility or a power marketer. Functions such as interconnection oversight, balancing supply and demand, transmission, distribution, generation, and obtaining permits for system upgrades must negotiate a maze of local, state and federal authorisation instances.

Such a labyrinth of players also stands in the way of a renewables-rich grid. Fifteen states between the Rocky Mountains and the Mississippi River account for 88% of the nation’s wind potential and 56% of its solar potential. That same region is home to only 30% of expected 2050 electricity demand.

A grid with a predominantly renewable future must be capable of freeing up those wind and solar riches. “We need to improve America’s outdated and siloed electricity transmission system both to compete effectively in the 21st century economy and to properly tackle the climate crisis,” says Greg Wetstone from the American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE), a non-profit organisation.

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CLEAN HEATING Space heating of buildings is a major source of carbon emissions. That need not be the case.

Decarbonisation of heating requires switching from systems and appliances that combust fossil fuels to those that rely on renewable energy. Nowhere is the switch more challenging to achieve for existing building stock than in the UK. If it can be done there, it can be done anywhere

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he UK has made great strides in sourcing electricity from renewable energy sources, but it is a laggard when it comes to decarbonising of its heating sector. A bold new vision—featuring district heating, the electrification of heating with heat pumps and investments to increase the energy efficiency of buildings—will not be easy nor cheap to implement, but could allow the UK to make up lost ground. Betting on hydrogen to clean up heating, however, is likely to prove to be a costly distraction if the UK is serious about reaching its 2050 target for net zero emissions.

In the UK, 85% of homes are heated by natural gas and the proportion of gas-fired home furnaces, known as boilers in Britain, keeps growing. Some 1.7 million gas boilers were installed in UK households in 2019, up 1.8% from a year earlier, when only 27,000 heat pumps were added. At that rate, the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC)—a group of academic institutions—says it would take over 700 years to reach the 19 million heat pumps the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), a public body that advises the government on emissions targets, has indicated will be necessary to meet the UK’s binding net zero emission target for 2050.

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Heat pumps, which transfer heat from air, water or ground sources using electricity, have the potential to deliver immediate carbon emissions savings of 60-70% compared to conventional electric heating and 55-65% when compared to an efficient gas boiler, figures that can rise when combined with energy efficiency measures to reduce space heating demand, the UK-based non-profit Carbon Trust found in a report released in August 2020 on the opportunities and obstacles to retrofitting existing London homes with heat pumps. As the UK grid continues to decarbonise, heat pumps are seen enabling roughly 90-100% carbon dioxide emissions reduction by 2050, it said.

AN IMMEDIATE FIX “Heat pumps are now the only readily available net zero carbon solution for heating at scale,” says Will Rivers of Carbon Trust, who stresses that the time to start taking action is now. “We are only 30 years away from 2050 and social housing, for example, invests with a 30-year time horizon.” What makes heat pumps particularly attractive is the prospect that the electricity they use will eventually be from an entirely renewable energy source as the UK power sector FORESIGHT

Housework Collective heating of dense city housing through heating networks is cheaper, cleaner and less trouble for property owners. The energy needed can also come from offshore wind power

TEXT Heather O’Brian PHOTO Gleren Meneghin

How to decarbonise the building stock in Britain

FORESIGHT

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CLEAN HEATING Denmark has led the way on decarbonisation of heating, with a rapid transition away from fossil fuels aided by its large scale adoption of heating networks over the past 40 years.

Instead of exchanging individual heating appliances in every home and commercial building, the Danes are centrally converting their heat networks to renewable energy, saving citizens a pile of money in the process

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enmark has a head start in eliminating fossil fuels from its heating, with twothirds of households served by district heating networks, which cover over half the country’s entire heating needs and source about 60% of their heat from carbon-neutral energy sources. Coal and natural-gas fired combined heat-andpower (CHP) is on its way out along with individual oil and gas furnaces in homes. On their way in are biomass CHP, with the emphasis on heat, and heat pumps.

The Danish energy and utilities sector is targeting an over 95% reduction in emissions compared to 1990 levels by 2030, with heating to be a major contributor in achieving that goal. Denmark’s overall aim for the same time span is a 70% reduction in emissions.

The phasing out of coal in CHP should lead to a reduction of six million tonnes of carbon emissions, while replacing oil and gas in individual heating systems and natural gas and oil in district heating is set

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to cut emissions by a further four million and one million tonnes, respectively, according to a roadmap from the Danish government’s “climate partnership” with the energy and utilities sector. By 2030, the continuing transition to renewables and further energy efficiency improvements should reduce emissions from the energy sector to one million tonnes annually, from 32 million tonnes in 1990, representing half all Denmark’s projected cuts.

“Many utilities already replaced coal in CHP plants with biomass,” says Steen Schelle Jensen, a heating and cooling specialist at Kamstrup, a provider of energy solutions. “The next step is electrification and sector coupling.” Decarbonisation is made easier by the country’s extensive district heating network. “It is an advantage because if you want to change something you only need to do it one place instead of in every single house,” points out Per Alex Sørensen of sustainable energy consultancy PlanEnergi.

While the increased use of heat pumps in district FORESIGHT

Child's play District heating is the easy and cheap option for cosy-kids in kindergartens in Denmark, both ancient and modern (pictured) Architects: COBE Photo: Rasmus Hjortshøj - COAST

TEXT Heather O’Brian PHOTO Rasmus Hjortshøj - COAST

Decarbonised heat within a decade in Denmark

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TEXT Ros Davidson PHOTO Zhang Kaiyv & Knut Troim

TRANSPORT Three concerns are said to be hindering the uptake of electric passenger cars—high purchase cost, fear of a flat battery, and lack of charging infrastructure. But cost has fallen, the range of car batteries now rivals that of a full tank of fuel and recharging a depleted battery when the need arises is proving to be easier than expected

Charging ahead T

he electrification of road transport will be essential to averting climate disaster. Transport is responsible for more than 15% of annual global emissions and in countries such as the US and UK, it contributes more climate emissions than the entire electricity generation sector, notes Amanda Myers, a policy analyst at Energy Innovation, a US research and analysis firm. Worldwide, transport as a sector has the fastest growing emissions, she says.

The roll-out of electrical vehicles (EVs) is accelerating. In China and Europe by 2025 they will account for between 13% and 20% of all new vehicle sales, growing to almost 70% in both regions by 2040, says Ryan Fisher of BloombergNEF, the new energy finance arm of New York research and media company Bloomberg. In the US, the share of EVs in vehicle sales is progressing more slowly, a reflection of less strict fuel economy regulations and car model availability, but EV deployment will catch up with that of other major economies in the 2030s, he says.

Beijing China has the world’s largest EV market, and over half the world’s public chargers FORESIGHT

EVs are expected to reach price parity with those propelled by internal combustion engines by mid-decade, faster than earlier predictions because of plummeting battery prices. This leaves two further barriers to their uptake: the fear of a battery running out mid journey and a perceived potential lack of sufficient charging infrastructure, notes Jean-Christoph Heyne of Siemens’ Future Grids business unit.

For full e-mobility, charging an EV must become as easy as charging a smartphone, argues Heyne. “It is chicken and egg,” he says, especially for people living in large cities without the convenience of a private parking space with an electricity outlet. They have to rely on public charging infrastructure. “If it is not there, you will think twice before buying an e-vehicle,” he says.

Reference to public charging includes charge points along freeways and other major roads, at the kerb side on urban streets, at workplaces and in municipal or shopping centre car parks, or at hotels, restaurants and airports. Although some of these locations are technically “private” they are often included in the definition of public charging points.

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TRANSPORT Hydrogen suffers from an abundance of hype, particularly about what it can be used for in the energy transition. Wild claims for the application of hydrogen, with little basis in current science and commercial reality, have worked to obscure the realistic opportunities for putting truly clean hydrogen to work here and now. Beneath the noise, however, hydrogen trains have been catching on. They will only be as clean as the process used to produce the hydrogen, but renewable energy is standing by, ready and willing

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ydrogen, a clean fuel at its point of use, has for many decades held tantalising promise for the decarbonisation of energy. But hydrogen does not occur naturally in its own right. It has to be produced from another state and is only as clean as the method used for that process. The financial and technical challenges of producing truly clean hydrogen, which can be done using electricity from a renewable source of energy, have until recently kept its promise out of reach. That is now changing.

Of all the much vaunted claims for the application of electrolytic hydrogen in the energy transition, two are now bearing up under close examination thanks to technology advances. The first is replacement of the vast quantities of “dirty hydrogen” used in petroleum refinement, metal treatment and fertiliser production, plus the potential replacement of fossil fuels used in industrial processes requiring extremely high temperatures. The second is to provide motive power for heavy commercial transport. The growing number of hydrogen powered trains in commercial use suggests they currently tick more boxes than hydrogen powered trucks employed in long distance road haulage.

Hydrogen trains have a bright future. They are already running in Britain and Germany and there are plans for more in Japan, Italy and elsewhere. Al-

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though railway electrification is the preferred option on a route to zero carbon, it is expensive. Case studies for Norway, the Netherlands, Britain and elsewhere suggest hydrogen can be an economic option. Battery powered trains are also being considered, but they tend to be outbid by hydrogen.

The environmental advantages of rail over road transport are clear. “High capacity urban rail requires, on average, less than a tenth of the energy needed per kilometre travelled compared with passenger cars,” states a joint International Energy Agency/International Union of Railways Report.

Work is underway to reduce the carbon footprint of all forms of transport, but the potential for trains to be zero carbon perhaps holds out most promise. The railways of Switzerland are almost zero carbon as the rail system is 100% electrified with around 98% of the electricity coming from carbon-free sources, hydro and nuclear.

Power systems the world over are aiming to reduce the carbon content of their electricity and railway owners are raising their electrification ambitions. Rail electrification, however, is costly and it may be difficult to justify the expense of installing the required infrastructure for lightly-used lines. Alternatives to electrification are flywheels, batteries and hydrogen fuel cells. The first option is only suitable for short FORESIGHT

Expert author David Milborrow is an energy consultant with an extra curricular interest in trains.

Taking advantage of this fortuitous mix of expertise, FORESIGHT asked him to take a deep dive into hydrogen powered trains and assess their commercial potential

TEXT David Milborrow PHOTO Johannes Hofmann

Why hydrogen trains are tracking hot

FORESIGHT

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TRANSPORT

line in Norway is 731 kilometre long and runs from Trondheim to Bodø in the far north with about 300 train movements. The US route, a 2883 kilometre stretch from Kansas City to Los Angeles, has about four times that number. The study concluded that fuel cell trains delivered the cheapest option on the Norwegian line, but not on the American line, where electrification came out as the cheaper option. The result again indicates that electrification demands a high intensity of services to enable the initial capital outlay to be recouped when spread over a large number of train movements. Even if the electricity used to charge batteries or generate hydrogen is not carbon-free, trains adopting either propulsion method are quieter than diesel trains and produce no harmful emissions along their routes.

ON THE MARKET TODAY The world’s first hydrogen-powered trains entered service in Germany in September 2018, with two pre-production two-car units, which have been operating in the north of the country on a route between Cuxhaven and Buxtehude ever since. The train is based on a design of diesel multiple unit that has been operating for several years. It has been re-engineered to accommodate the components necessary for it to run on hydrogen. The Coadia “iLint” has a 200 kW fuel cell and a 225 kW lithium-ion battery that stores surplus fuel cell energy and absorbs regenerative energy when braking. Roof tanks store 99 kilograms of hydrogen at a pressure of 350 bar. Alstom, the train manufacturer, claims the hydrogen train has a similar weight to the diesel version. The hydrogen consump58

tion, at around 0.2 kg/km, is slightly less than that assumed in the FCJU study. The maximum speed is 140 km/h and the range is 600 kilometres.

Several regional rail operators in Germany have placed orders for the trains following the successful operation of the prototypes and the Dutch rail operator supervised an intensive test programme in spring 2020. The transport authority for the Frankfurt region has ordered 27 trains for delivery in 2022 and construction of a refuelling facility started in October 2020. A trial began in Austria in September 2020 that could lead to an order for further trains.

In Britain, the first mainline hydrogen train, Hydroflex, made its first demonstration trips between Long Marston and Evesham in central England in late September 2020. The venture belongs to rolling stock operator Porterbrook in conjunction with Birmingham university. The train has been converted from a four-car electric multiple unit. In a sign of developing competition in the market, Alstom has also announced its intention to convert another electric multiple unit for hydrogen operation.

Other manufacturers are also developing fuel cell trains and Swiss rolling stock manufacturer Stadler Rail will supply a Flirt train to the US in 2024 for operation in San Bernardino County, California. Further activity is reported in Japan and China.

TRUCKS, SHIPS AND PLANES Hydrogen fuel cells can also be used to propel ships, trucks and even aeroplanes with demonstrations of how to go about it at various stages. British company ZeroAvia claimed it completed the world’s first hyFORESIGHT

Green skies ZeroAvia says it completed the world’s first hydrogen fuel-cellpowered flight in September 2020

TRANSPORT

drogen fuel-cell-powered flight of a commercial grade aircraft in September 2020. The six-seater plane used for the flight is for the time being the largest hydrogen-powered aircraft in the world, says ZeroAvia. It completed a circuit around the aerodrome at Cranfield in England, where the company is based. The next step is a 400 kilometre flight to the island of Orkney off northern Scotland.

Anglo-French company Airbus is a hydrogen flight believer. “Hydrogen is one of the most promising zero-emission technologies to reduce aviation’s climate impact. This is why we consider hydrogen to be an important technology pathway to achieve our ambition of bringing a zero-emission commercial aircraft to market by 2035,” states the company.

The shipping industry lays claim to another “world first” for hydrogen in the shape of a ferry set to undergo testing at the European Marine Energy Centre in Scotland’s Orkney Islands. Initially, the ferry’s hydrogen fuel cells will power its auxiliary engines, but the aim is for it to run solely on hydrogen.

The project has a strong claim to being truly green as its hydrogen is derived through electrolysis reliant on electricity supplied from a tidal power installation.

Fuel cell buses have been operating on the streets of London and other major cities for several years.

Fuel cell cars are available, but they are expensive and unlikely to make much of an impact in the short to medium term. Among truck manufacturers, several big names are promoting fuel cell powered heavy commercial vehicles. A hydrogen powered commercial truck built by Hyundai started hauling groceries in Switzerland in April 2020, the first of 1600 fuel cell electric trucks that the manufacturer plans to commission by 2025. Switzerland levies a tariff on heavy vehicles that corresponds to around €0.8/km. Green vehicles are exempt. As Switzerland’s electricity is 98% carbon free, its hydrogen trucks will have impeccable green credentials.

LAST WORD Most hydrogen today, however, is derived from non-renewable sources and even electrolytic hydrogen is reliant on electricity from grids that are still at least partially dependent on fossil fuel. Given that the production of hydrogen from renewables will always cost more than the renewables electricity used in the electrolysis process, clean hydrogen will always be more expensive than clean electricity. As a result, truly carbon-free hydrogen, produced from renewable energy-powered electrolysis, is unlikely to contribute in any significant way to reducing emissions for many years yet. If it becomes a mainstream carrier alongside electricity, it could be the railways that spearheaded the hydrogen revolution • FORESIGHT

THE TROUBLE WITH HYDROGEN Hydrogen is only as clean as the method used for separating it out of its natural state, whether by exposing fossil fuels to steam or subjecting water to an electric charge. Electrolytic hydrogen from water is emissions free when the electricity used for the process is supplied from a renewable source of energy, but that is rarely the case. Nearly all grid electricity around the world is a major source of CO2 emissions. The carbon content of electricity used for electrolysis has a strong bearing on the carbon emissions associated with the resulting hydrogen.

In countries reliant on coal fired power stations, grid electricity is far from clean.

South Africa, Australia, Poland and India all deliver electricity with a carbon content in excess of 700 grams of CO2 per kilowatt hour.

The efficiency of electrolysis is about 70%, meaning that 30% of the energy that goes into the process is wasted. Fuel cell efficiency is similar. As a result, the carbon content of the electricity delivered by fuel cells to a train’s traction motors is roughly double that of the input grid electricity.

By comparing the emissions from diesel trains with the "full cycle" emissions from hydrogen trains, it is apparent that the grid carbon intensity needs to be less than about 600 grams of CO2 per kWh if CO2 is to be saved by using hydrogen instead of diesel. The more a grid is fed from renewable sources of energy, the lower its carbon density. Iceland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK are countries with a grid carbon content below the 600g/ kWh threshold, which would make hydrogen trains cleaner than their diesel counterparts.

In locations where the grid electricity carbon content comes above this threshold, hydrogen trains still offer quiet travel with no local carbon emissions, but will not reduce overall emissions unless the hydrogen comes from a dedicated renewable energy source.

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CEMENT & STEEL

Cement and steel manufacturing are two of the most carbon intensive industries in the world. Electrification can play a role in decarbonising both, though technology innovation is expensive and removing all emissions from the processes is a tall order.

Given the accelerating problems of global warming, serious government help is essential to achieve at least partial electrification in the necessary timeframe

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TEXT Catherine Early PHOTO Ricardo Gomez

Heavy industry to carbon light

T

he processes involved in manufacturing cement and steel, used in buildings, vehicles and infrastructure around the globe, are among the industrial activities that cause most climate change. Cement is responsible for 8% and steel 7% of the world’s carbon emissions. Both sectors are working on ways to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels, driven by government policies and public pressure to re-establish the earth’s carbon balance, known as achieving net-zero, climate neutrality or being carbon neutral.

The challenge the cement and steel industries face is enormous. To stay in business as well as go carbon light they must protect current investments in production facilities that have long operational lives. At the same time they must invest in making those facilities obsolete as fast as possible. Massive government subsidies to assist both sectors would appear to be unavoidable. Knowing what to support and what not to support is likely to depend on which technologies gain market backing and which do not. The industry is working on a range of options, including direct and indirect electrification of processes that not long ago were seen as impossible to electrify, both physically and economically.

“Industrial plants have a service life of up to 70 years, which means that investments in purely conventional plants are already no longer compatible with the long term goal of climate neutrality. In order to avoid stranded assets, decisions must be made in favour of climate neutral innovation from now on,” says Frank Peter, at AgoraEnergiewende, a German green policy institute.

The steel and cement industries will only achieve the required emission savings over the next decade by adopting climate neutral key technologies. Without their participation the EU’s more ambitious climate target of at least 55% lower emissions by 2030 will be hard to reach, Agora Energiwende notes in a November 2020 report.

CEMENT TRIALS In cement making, around 60% of carbon dioxide emissions are released during the process of limestone calcination. Since the carbon is produced as a by-product of a chemical reaction, it cannot be reduced by changing fuels or increasing manufacturing plant efficiency. Either new processes have to be found for greener cement or the carbon emitted has to be captured and put to another use or stored (CCUS). Pilot CCUS projects are underway at cement plants in the US and China, with others planned in Norway, Canada and India, reported the International Energy Agency (IEA) in 2020.

First, the cement industry must make sure the electricity it uses comes from a renewable energy FORESIGHT

source, the IEA points out. Swiss cement company LafargeHolcim announced in October 2020 the opening of a solar energy facility alongside its cement factory in Maryland, United States. At 10 MW the solar plant is expected to power around 25% of the factory’s annual electricity requirements, the company says. The target for 2030 is to reduce indirect emissions from the generation of electricity used to power its equipment to 13 kilograms of CO2 for each tonne of cement produced, a 65% reduction compared with 2018.

LafargeHolcim already uses a 15 MW solar plant to supply 30% of the electricity used at its factory in Jordan and in Argentina it buys 30% of its electricity through a wind power purchase agreement. Over the next five years, it hopes to install enough renewable energy capacity to cover the electricity used by all its plants and contribute to powering surrounding communities.

None of these efforts, however, puts the smallest dent in the carbon emissions from operation of LafargeHolcim’s kilns. Cement kilns need to be kept at a constant temperature of 1300-1400 degrees Celsius, making supply from variable sources such as wind and solar unrealistic, explains Thomas Schulz, who heads FLSmidth, a large Danish engineering firm. “The damage to the plant’s firing system can be traumatic if the energy goes away—not only the quality of what you produce, but if the temperature is reduced, you can damage the shell and liner of the kiln,” he says.

Yet, from the World Cement Association, Ian Riley sees no major role for electricity in the sector’s decarbonised future. Using electricity for kilns would require a huge investment to retrofit the equipment, he says. In any case, the cement industry is providing a useful secondary service by burning waste that is otherwise difficult to dispose of, such as paints and oils, he adds. “I’m not convinced electrification will make sense from an economic point of view, but also not from an environmental and circular economy perspective. If I think about things I would do to decarbonise the cement industry, electrification would be pretty much the last one,” he says, pointing to changes in the composition of clinker and efficiency gains.

KILN ELECTRIFICATION Nevertheless, research on kiln electrification is underway, though at an early stage, according to European industry body Cembureau’s 2050 roadmap.

Using electrical heating, plasma or solar energy to calcinate the raw materials could result in fuel-related CO2 savings of up to 55% if renewables electricity is used, it states. Emissions can also be avoided by combusting green hydrogen, produced using renewable energy, and biomass fuels, instead of using fossil fuels to create the extreme temperatures needed in the clinker process. Combined, the adoption of these 63

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