How did my real estate predictions turn out?

BY JOHN RICE

I’ll try to remain humble here, but I called exactly what is happening in the real estate market today.

I have always said there will always be a market. There will always be demand. Sometimes the demand will be pent up with people sitting on the sidelines, but they are there, waiting to feel comfortable about making a move. (Typically these people wait until enough other people dive in… and effectively end up jumping into a hot market, which is what they were hoping to avoid.)

I have been saying for months that I thought the market could still be very good with interest rates around 6 percent or less because historically, the past several super hot markets we have seen in our area had those rates and adjusted to average income, real estate values in our area are similar. I’ve said that rates over 7 percent won’t last forever. I’ve also been saying for years that once rates start going up again, people would be reluctant to give up their super low rates, which would create a shortage of listings and would keep prices stable regardless of the market conditions.

I’ve suggested people buy real estate as soon as they are able, regardless of the rate since you can always refinance when/if rates go down, but you can’t go back in time to get yesterday’s home prices.

And now you know what stories are making the headlines? That mortgage applications are up recently due to rates dropping below 6 percent... that refinancing applications are up too…that rates are down…that prices aren’t really dropping in areas that didn’t see crazy stupid price increases.

I am seeing all this myself with my clients. I had two listings that went on the market right around Thanksgiving. One of them was modestly priced, totally updated and in a desirable neighborhood. I really thought it would go fast even though that time of year is usually slow. It hardly got any showings, which is very strange. Then once rates went down we had five or six showings in a matter of days and it sold. When I go to show listings to my buyers lately, most of the time there is another realtor showing the house when I arrive or one that shows up as I am leaving, sometimes both.

John Rice is a local Realtor. He blogs as “The LEXpert.”

According to Bluegrass REALTORS®, for the year 2022, median home prices ended at $240,000, up 9 percent from the $220,000 median last year. The 2022 median price was an all-time high for area homes.

Kelley Nisbet, president of Bluegrass REALTORS® says, “Market activity has returned back to pre-pandemic levels seen in 2018 and 2019. The big difference throughout the year, aside from the sharp price increases, is that inventory and listings coming online are still unusually low.” Nisbet adds, “Along with slightly more selection and homes staying active a little longer, buyers may not feel as squeezed going into the spring as they have over the past several months. Sales may pick back up, at least in the short term, if [interest] rates fall and inventory expands.”

Kentucky’s Council on Postsecondary Education (CPE) has announced Kentucky’s participation in a new national initiative known as Launch: Equitable & Accelerated Pathways for All. The program aims to expand access to high-quality and equitable college and career pathways for all learners.

The CPE will collaborate with partners, including the Kentucky Department of Education, Commerce Lexington, Inc., Kentuckiana Works, Kentucky Center for Statistics, Kentucky Chamber of Commerce, Kentucky Community and Technical College System, Kentucky Education and Labor Cabinet, Fayette County Public Schools, Jefferson County Public Schools and Shelby County Public Schools.

Dr. Aaron Thompson, president of the Kentucky Council on Postsecondary Education, said

“This initiative will help accelerate many of the Commonwealth’s education, workforce and economic development goals and help us build an even stronger, more equitable career pathway for every Kentuckian.”

College and career pathways provide intentional, career-aligned courses that span secondary and postsecondary education, embed work-based learning experiences, are anchored in credentials of value, and lead to better economic and social mobility for learners.

Five organizations, Advance CTE, Education Strategy Group, ExcelinEd, Jobs for the Future (JFF) and New America, with support from the Annie E. Casey Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Bloomberg Philanthropies, Carnegie Corporation, Joyce Foundation, and the Walton Family Foundation, will be partnering with Kentucky and other cohort states to implement the work.

One Lexington Grants Awarded

Mayor Linda Gorton announced the city will provide first-ever violence prevention grants to 16 public schools in Fayette County.

The $500 and $1,000 ONE Lexington grants will be given to the Family Resource and Youth Services Centers. Family support programs are offered through the centers to help children who are encountering barriers to educational success. The centers provide support in basic needs, school attendance, social skills, and crisis response.

Ciera Bowman, Family Resource Youth Services Center coordinator at Henry Clay High School, said, “This opportunity will help us increase services and unique interventions to youth most impacted by the trauma of violence. With this grant, the centers will be able to continue and expand services for each community’s unique needs. Specifically, at Henry Clay, I’ll be collaborating with other high schools centers and community partners to host youth summits to educate, empower and listen to the concerns and perspectives of students in our communities. This donation represents more than just money. It represents the support our youth need within our community, within their schools, and wherever they can be reached.”

The 10 schools receiving $1,000 grants are Lexington Traditional Magnet School, Winburn Middle School, Bryan Station Middle School, Crawford Middle School, Tates Creek Middle School, Henry Clay High School, Paul Laurence Dunbar High School, Frederick Douglass High School, The Learning Center, and Martin Luther King Jr. Academy.

Families Calendar

WED MAR 1

The Arboretum will host Little Sprouts in March 2023! This fun and educational event series will take place most Wednesday mornings in March at the Dorotha Smith Oatts Visitor Center. Each session has a special theme that begins with a story and handson exploration. Next, participants will rotate through craft, science experiments, and planting stations. Activities are finished up by going outside to explore for a short hike (weather permitting).

This program is suitable for children 3 to 5 years of age. Pre-register and pay in advance. Info, 859.257-6955. Program

1 on Wednesday March 1, 2023 is Animal Habitats in the Garden.

FRI MAR 3 Disney’s Beauty and the Beast, Frederick Douglass High School

Brenda Cowan Elementary Arts proudly present… DISNEY’S BEAUTY AND THE BEAST JR.

Based on the acclaimed films and Tony®-winning Broadway musical, Beauty and the Beast JR., tells the story of the bright and beautiful Belle, who yearns to escape her provincial life... and her brute of a suitor, Gaston. Best enjoyed by ages 5 and up. Performed in the Frederick Douglass High School Auditorium Public Performances, Friday thru Sunday.

SAT MAR 4 Peter and the Starcatcher

Peter and the Starcatcher upends the century-old story of how a miserable orphan comes to be The Boy Who Would Not Grow Up (a.k.a. Peter Pan). Leeds Center for the Arts, Winchester.

FRI MAR 10 Dance SCAPA

For decades, The School for Creative and Performing Arts has showcased their dance program with an artistic celebration that embraces ballet, modern, jazz, tap, musical theater, and more. Grades 4-12 come together to pay tribute to the artistry of dance, Mar 10-11, Lexington Opera House.

MAR 18 Discovery Saturday

For March Discovery Saturday, the Living Arts and Science Center is celebrating women in science! Join for STEAM activities and planetarium shows at the LASC. Bluegrass Green Source and Kentucky Air Quality will be partners for the event and have activities for the entire family to enjoy.