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FALLS CHURCH NEWS-PRESS | FCNP.COM

WINTER 2019 | PAGE 13

Real Estate Winter 2019

Garages Expand Into New Roles as Cities Reevaluate Transportation

by Matt Delaney

Falls Church News-Press

As the City of Falls Church moves toward accommodating car-alternative transportation, City officials are following the consensus among urban planners that investing in a public parking garage is passé. But does a government-level disinterest in building a public utility represent a budding trend of disinterest in residents’ own garages? The short answer is no; although with shifting generational and municipal priorities, the garage is primed for an evolution. Garages are in a weird place.

Dense cities — like Washington, D.C. — are beginning to focus support on different modes of transportation. Uber’s CEO Dara Khosrowshahi told CNN in November that he hopes city residents won’t own a car in the next 10 years. Realtor Magazine reported in October that housing analysts believe by as soon as 2030 garages could become less of a fixture of the home. For the suburbanites who stay outside of the anchor cities proper – such as Falls Church – but still frequent the metro center for work or play, the car they own may struggle to find a place inside this revitalized cityscape.

And if loses its primary function for transportation, residents may begin to see less reason to keep or buy a home with one attached. That line of thinking is a bit far-fetched, according to Mark Turner, owner and founder of the design and build firm GreenSpur, Inc on W. Broad St. He believes the American love for the car holds strong, especially outside of urban areas where the car remains a vital part of everyday life. But he and his team, including director of design Zach Gasper, have been innovating some new twists on the garage’s conventional function for vehicle and tool storage.

AN EXAMPLE of GreenSpur, Inc.’s flex space the firm designed and built in Arlington Forest, where the client wanted a space detached from the home roughly the size of a two-car garage (Photo: Courtesy GreenSpur, Inc.)

“You can intentionally design garages as more than just garages, in our opinion, but as a flex space,” Turner said, who went on to say how Airbnb is changing the way people look at their homes and different ways to monetize them. “Now people think ‘I can

rent this thing out,’ instead of putting a car and some bikes in it. Design-wise, if you can make it attractive but still flexible, we’re finding that clients in the market really demand that, especially millennials and even empty nesters”

INSIDE: Live Look at Market for Homebuyers page 15 | “Amazon Effect” Has Come & Gone page 18 | F.C. Home Sales #s pages 19–20

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PAGE 14 | WINTER 2019

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Flexibility Aims to Keep Garages Relevant in Near Future Continued from Page 14

Airbnb might have changed the way people view their homes, but it hasn’t bought into the trend of renting our garages just yet. According to the company’s spokesperson, it’s not an avenue Airbnb has explored at this time. But the site does offer diverse options ranging from hostels to guesthouses. If the designs similar to GreenSpur become the norm instead of the exception it could catch on. Some of its early models include two variations on detached, single car garages with cars going on the bottom floor and a loft, den or guest suite on the second floor. Though Turner admits they have more of a boutique-ish clientele. Gasper follows that up by noting one Falls Church client wants a spa/office detachment and an Arlington client had a woodland retreat constructed in the back of their home — both roughly the size of a two-car garage. These flexible spaces can fit comfortably into a Falls Church that’s been adamant about transforming itself into a multi-modal locale. Options to walk, bike, take transit and get around by car were labeled as priorities when the City released its updated Comprehensive Plan in 2017 titled, “Falls Church 2040.” Steps being taken include the coming improvements to the Washington & Old Dominion Trail and the implementation of a Bikeshare program in Falls Church as well, while also adding new retail stores near one another so residents can hop shop-to-shop on foot. The arrival of an establishment

that supplies no parking – last summer’s opening of Northside Social – is Falls Church’s test flight to see how the popular the new initiatives are. Whether the City can make serious progress, however, remains to be seen. “It’s nothing new. Architects, theoreticians and urban planners have been talking about these pedestrian-friendly environments since the turn of the 20th century,” architect and founder of DuBro Architects + Builders on S. Maple Ave., Jeff DuBro, said, while mentioning how this paradigm shift in the U.S. uses European cities as examples. “You can have an urban planner in a small jurisdiction, like Falls Church City, say they want to have a more pedestrian-friendly community...but all these cities’ urban planning had the car at its center.” According to associate professor in urban affairs and planning at Virginia Tech’s Alexandria campus, Ralph Buehler, municipalities need to make alternative modes of transportation attractive, safe and convenient. But Buehler also mentions that zoning codes requiring parking to be constructed alongside new buildings makes driving convenient. It’s why, despite the City’s vision, the Harris Teeter on W. Broad St. and upcoming Founders Row project both either currently or plan to have underground parking garages built into them. Even with some headwinds in the present, the City’s vision may have some beneficial longterm gains. Per Buehler, areas with walking, biking and easy access to transit are able to get a premium when it comes to home sales because they usually signify

A CONCEPTUAL DRAWING of a community home deisgned by GreenSpur that’s currently in the planning phase. The structure can accommodate one vehicle inside of it with a rear stairwell (not pictured) leading up to a bedroom on the second floor. (P��: C�� G��S��, I��.) proximity to bustling downtown areas. He states that this is an empirical correlation as of now, instead of a direct causation, but the connection is strong enough that it’s worth investing in that future. And, contrary to Turner’s earlier point, Buehler mentions that the American admiration for the car may be fading as well. “What we’ve seen in the last 20 years or so is the value that’s typically been attached to the car has been somewhat weakened,” Buehler said, identifying millennials as the ones who’ve brought about this change in atti-

tude. “We’ve definitely seen the car move from a status symbol to more of a tool we use.” Still, a lot of balls remain in the air. Developers are heavily incentivized to build two-car garages since they add about $25,000 – $30,000 onto the value of a home, according to the Realtor report. DuBro also notes that the pedestrian-friendly European cities the U.S. looks to for inspiration aren’t encumbered by the consumerist American culture. Our propensity to buy stuff in excess creates the need for

storage, which the garage fills. Meanwhile, Buehler isn’t sure what direction the electrification of cars will go. If they become mainstream items he believes the garage could be seen as the likely place for them to recharge. And, of course, the waning symbolism of the car is more of a slow bleed than an open wound. What is known, however, is the garage is expected to change in a way that’s reflective of people’s demands and desires. Whether that change brings about a drastic evolution or a marginal one is an open question.

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WINTER 2019 | PAGE 15

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Sellers Market Still Holds in Area by Orrin Konheim

Falls Church News-Press

The Northern Virginia market and, particularly, Falls Church, continue to remain among the stablest and most healthy markets in the region heading into 2019. The 2018 data released by the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors shows that the area continues to be a sellers’ market with a tightening up of available inventory. It is possible, however, that new developments opening up could turn the tide to the buyer. With the proximity to Washington D.C., the quality of the school system and the closeness of Metro, Falls Church has long been a steady market. The City is listed by Multiple Listing Service data as having a median home price of $535,000, which is comparable to Arlington ($551,000) and Fairfax ($498,000) counties, respectively. The region on the whole however, saw relatively little change in the market with just 0.41 percent in the average sold price of a home between 2017 and 2018 although the City of Falls Church saw home prices rise 3.5 percent. “Arlington and Falls Church are always the last to fall [in a housing crisis] and the first to recover,” said NVAR President Christine Richardson. On the other hand, massive spikes in growth are obstructed by the fact that there’s no new land to develop (as opposed to the farther reaches of Fairfax County) according to Henderson. The trend of lessening inventory is consistent across the region as the number of available listings from December of 2017 to December of 2018 dropped by 20.02 percent. Additionally, the average sale price to the original list price ratio has remained steady at 97.8 percent in 2017 to 89.2 percent in 2018 for Northern Virginia. “If the price is close to asking price, that means the sellers are naming their price and can reasonably expect to get it,” said Francisco Alex Escobar, a real estate agent with Samson Properties. “But I’d say that the market is probably a cooler sellers market. We’ll see what happens in the spring. Remember this is a seasonal industry, too.” Local real estate agent Tori McKinney of Rock Star Realty cautioned that it’s an

oversimplification that the inventory is fixed in Falls Church. “There’s not much width but there’s always elevation,” she said. McKinney pointed out that recent developments such as Northgate, The Lincoln and West Broad apartments along with upcoming mixed-use developments near George Mason High School and the Applebee’s lot should help to open up space. Additionally, there have been three condominiums; Broadway of Falls Church, The Spectrum and The Byron have already been built. “More inventory opening up gives more selection to the buyer,” added McKinney. John French of Access National Mortgage believes that ordinarily a condominium is like a “drop in the bucket” but for a small community of the size of Falls Church, the opening of three new condominiums could make a dent in the resale market. “In a small microcosm of 12,000, your impact will be felt, but mostly in the condominium market,” French said. “The increase in available units creates competition for buyers, especially with the owners of resale units, as the pool of people who would otherwise buy those resale units is being diminished.” McKinney believes these new developments improve surrounding values and also add more tax dollars for Falls Church Another factor that could be squeezing inventory and selling homes quicker is that behind conventional mortgages, the second most popular form of purchasing a home is to pay with cash. Of the 22,094 properties sold this past year, 2,815 or 12.7 percent were paid for with cash. Richardson explains that people purchasing with cash could be home buyers from overseas because they likely won’t be able to show banks they have a credit history or mortgage. But it is more likely that these are investors who can afford larger economies of scale in their operations. “This makes it more difficult for a firsttime buyer to compete with an investor as $300,000 – $500,000 properties are the sweet spot for both buyers and investors,” said Richardson.

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R EA L E STATE A Falls Church News-Press Advertorial

WINTER 2019 | PAGE 17

M e e t Fa l l s C h u rc h’ s Re a l E s t a t e E x p e r t s Genevieve Concannon, Advon Real Estate, LLC.

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Genevieve Concannon founded Advon Real Estate, a boutique brokerage in Falls Church City, with an emphasis on residential re-sale in Northern Virginia because she saw a need for focus. Real Estate agents can not be everything to everyone across all markets, and she also understands what it means to live in an area where the residential housing stock is older. With a hand selected, elite team of agents who understand new construction, sales and marketing and especially urban in-fill and new urbanism, Genevieve found the key to what Northern Virginia real estate needs. Genevieve brings over a decade of real estate experience in residential construction and multi-million dollar sales to her clients. As a highly sought after manager and top-producing agent in boutique firms throughout Northern Virginia, Genevieve has managed and cultivated complex real estate relationships within the DC Metro area. She held a portfolio of upwards of $79m in volume while recruiting, training and mentoring top real estate professionals. She and her husband live in Falls Church and love every minute! The Advon Real Estate group wants to be your strategic partner to help you see the whole picture and to advantageously position you for success in your real estate transaction. To learn more about how the Advon Industry Leaders will do more to help you buy and sell your home in Northern Virginia, reach out today to discuss your unique situation.

Tori LOVES being a Realtor. And she loves her community. She and her family moved to Falls Church City 20 years ago. In 1998 as a new member of Falls Church City, Tori believed a sense of community would require active participation, and she has lead by example for the past two decades. She actively supports: Falls Church City Schools, Falls Church Education Foundation, Falls Church Chamber of Commerce, FIRSTFriday/Art-a-Lot, Tinner Hill Blues Festival, Falls Church Arts, and Taste of Falls Church. Tori served as Vice-Chair on the Housing Commission for 10 years, is a member of FCCPS Business in Education, and serves on the Board of Tinner Hill Heritage Foundation. Tori has often been recognized for her community involvement. She was named Pillar of the Community by the Falls Church Chamber, named one of the Top Producing Real Estate Agents by Washingtonian Magazine, for six consecutive years has been voted Best Real Estate Agent, and again in 2018 has been voted Best Real Estate Group in the Falls Church News Press ‘Best of Falls Church’. As a tireless Falls Church advocate, Tori has helped countless families buy and sell homes over the past 14 years. Tori puts her heart and soul into the Falls Church community, and she LOVES what she gets in return. When you’re ready to buy or sell your home, call Tori, your Falls Church expert for ROCK STAR Service.

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Bethany Ellis is a full time and professional Residential Real Estate Agent serving all of Northern Virginia specifically Falls Church, Falls Church City, McLean, Arlington, Herndon, Reston, Fairfax and Great Falls. Bethany is passionate about helping her clients smoothly transition through the buying or selling of a very precious commodity their home! Bethany is tech savvy with a personal touch. Using modern technology as well as timeless tools like phone calls and leg work, Bethany is a local selling and marketing expert. She will be present with you every step of the way from preparing your house for sale to negotiating the contract on your behalf. Bethany’s goal is to help guide you through the buying and selling process with expertise and experience while ensuring you are at ease. Bethany has sold over $130 Million of Real Estate and she can help you too! If you have Real Estate questions, Bethany has the answers. Call, email or text Bethany today for a free, confidential meeting. Bethany is always happy to help you buy, sell or invest in real estate.

Named as one of Washington, DC’s Top Producing Agents (Washingtonian, 2018), Ken specializes in showcasing and selling Falls Church homes. By preparing a custom marketing plan for each listing, Ken’s listings have been featured in the FCNP, as well as The Washington Post, Washington Business Journal, Curbed DC, and DC Magazine. Ken’s custom marketing strategies have resulted in his listings selling for Top Dollar and setting sales records in the Falls Church area. Prior to becoming a top producing Realtor®, Ken was a successful litigation attorney in Washington, DC, and draws frequently from that experience in his real estate career, saying: “The skills to be a successful Realtor® are the same skills it takes to be a successful lawyer. I focus on making my clients’ interests my sole priority and zealously strive to achieve the best results for each client.” Ken also hosts the home-related video series, Home Trends with Ken, featuring tips to help homeowners create a home that inspires them while adding value. View episodes of the series on Ken’s blog at KenTrotterHomes.com. Finally, when it comes time to sell your home, give yourself the Ken Trotter Advantage. For more information about the Ken Trotter Advantage, reach out to him directly.

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PAGE 18 | WINTER 2019

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HOMES BEING CONSTRUCTED (left) and established homes already on the market are only going to gain slightly more interest once Amazon’s HQ2 employees began entering the area since their arrival (and homebuying) will be gradual. (Photos: Patricia Leslie)

Amazon’s Impact on Housing Market Expected to Be Nominal by Patricia Leslie

Falls Church News-Press

Ever since Amazon announced that half of its HQ2 is coming to Northern Virginia with 25,000 jobs in tow, speculation about how intense its effect on the local real estate market would be has tamped down. Area real estate agents are glad to welcome new potential homeowners, but none of the agents who sell homes in Falls Church and Northern Virginia and were interviewed by the Falls Church News-Press are working with anyone from Amazon nor do they see much happening to the housing market anytime soon. No one disputes the benefits the influx of jobs and consumers Amazon’s new branch will bring, but as far as sellers champing at the bit for higher prices in an already low inventory region, they may have to sit and wait a while, said Bethany Ellis, a 10-year veteran who works for Long and Foster. “People are expecting property values to quadruple, but if that happens, it will price everybody out of the market. At some point there are diminishing returns,” Ellis said. Over three to five years, Ellis does not believe prices will rise “as rapidly as people think.” That’s an opinion shared by

a leading economist, Stephen S. Fuller at the George Mason University institute that bears his name. “While HQ2 will generate additional demand for housing, its effects will be geographically dispersed and gradual,” Fuller writes. Maria Fernandez, a location specialist with the Fulcrum Properties Group, knows a Crystal City seller who hiked his price $50,000 after Amazon’s announcement, and the property still waits for a buyer. “There are always going to be motivated sellers, but buyers are not stupid. They are savvy and recognize fair market value.” Fernandez said, mentioning her buyers have exhibited no significant sense of urgency. “I don’t think [Amazon] will be as crazy as some think it will be,” Ellis said, an opinion echoed by Jeff Wu, a Keller-Williams Capital Properties salesman who’s been in the business 15 years, who added. “[Amazon] will have a positive impact but it won’t be as dramatic as most people think.” Fernandez thinks “Amazon is not going to hurt the home market in any way. Effects will be gradual and not as significant” as what happened in Seattle. “There won’t be a knee jerk reaction here.” Seattle experienced a “tsunami of growth,” says the Washington Business Journal, after Amazon

took off there. Instead of rain in Seattle, it was a doubling of home pricing over six years and an 80 percent explosion in traffic over seven years. Real estate agents and Fuller predict changes here will be slow with a gradual absorption of new residents. That the region is a seller’s market and has been for years is undeniable. Inventory is low, but the Fuller Institute says about 40 percent of area homes are occupied by baby boomers who over the next 20 years will be downsizing and moving away, opening up their properties to the Amazon influx. The timing is right. Fernandez said some new Amazon employees may choose a smaller house, closer in to D.C., while others with a tolerance for commuting will opt out for distance. Millennials may live in group homes, too, said Ellis. “It’s like springtime in January” is the way Bev Tatum, a saleswoman at Weichert Realtors, puts it. She recently represented a buyer competing with three others for a house priced under $500,000 in Springfield. Her buyer didn’t get it. These days some buyers are waiving home inspections. It’s too early to really see much

of an Amazon impact, Tatum noted. “Some sellers may think, ‘I’d better hold off so I can take advantage of the people coming,’ but at the end of the day, it’s all about supply and demand,” and right now, the demand, with or without Amazon, exceeds the supply. Tatum thinks the market has already spiked due to Amazon’s announcement, the uncertainty of political and economic worlds and interest rates. Clearly, the Amazon announcement caused a tremendous buzz, per Tatum. Amazon will bring more diversity and definitely help the economy. “If the economy is good, residential sales are good. This is a highly transient area any way with the military and State Department” staffs moving in and out, Tatum continued. To her, Amazon is “the most significant development in my ten great years of selling houses,” she exclaimed. Whether it’s Nestle or Exxon moving out or Hilton coming in, this influx of people and the effects of its spillover are like nothing no one has seen. Economists believe about half of Amazon’s residents will settle in Fairfax County because the county is more affordable than Falls Church or Arlington, Fernandez said.

The Northern Virginia Association of Realtors reports the average price for a home sold last year in Falls Church City was $835,176. In Arlington County, it was $663,894 and in Fairfax County, $578,723. Wu and Fernandez credit the region’s well-educated workforce as a major draw for Amazon and rather that all new workers, there will be a shuffling of what’s here. Ellis claimed that the large majority of Amazon employees are already here. Rental rates are increasing nationally, reports Apartment List, predicting an annual hike in rents of up to two percent for the Washington region. Single-family housing prices will drive some employees to rentals which will attract new residents anyway who want to stake out the area before they commit to a mortgage and buy. Wu described the rental scene as “crazy now, what they are paying for two and three bedroom apartments in Tysons: $3,000 to $5,000!” with more new buildings going up, because “[tenants] want something new.” With New York City, Northern Virginia was selected for Amazon’s new headquarters and a total of 50,000 jobs which the two areas will split. Meanwhile, Nashville welcomes 5,000 jobs at a new Amazon operations center.

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FALLS CHURCH NEWS-PRESS | FCNP.COM

Real Estate

WINTER 2019 | PAGE 19

Top Falls Church Home Sales

October-December #2 $1,640,000

#1 $1,700,000

#4 $1,575,000 #3 $1,580,132 Top 5 F.C. Home Sales October 1 â€“ December 31, 2018 Address #1 303 N. Virginia Ave. #2 407 Little Falls St. #3 116 E. Jefferson St. #4 517 Meridian St. #5 114 E. Jefferson St.

5 5 6 5 5

6 4 5 4 4

HB 1 2 0 1 1

List Price

$1,700,000 $1,775,000 $1,575,000 $1,600,000 $1,595,000

Sale Price

$1,700,000 $1,640,000 $1,580,132 $1,575,000 $1,547,500

Zip

22046 22046 22046 22046 22046

Date Sold 12/13/18 11/19/18 10/16/18 10/26/18 11/9/18

Source: MRIS, Inc.; Photos: MRIS, Falls Church News-Press

#5 $1,547,500

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PAGE 20 | WINTER 2019

FALLS CHURCH NEWS-PRESS | FCNP.COM

Falls Church Area Housing Market — 4th Quarter 2018 Report Zip Code

Area

Average Price

Number of Homes Sold

Average Days on Market

22046

Falls Church City

$855,460

22041

Bailey’s Crossroads

$378,220

22042

Sleepy Hollow

$506,858

22043

Pimmit Hills

$622,615

22044

Lake Barcroft

$461,556

Home Sales Vs. 1 Year Ago

Home Prices Vs. 1 Year Ago

Change in # of Homes Sold: 4Q ‘18 vs 4Q ‘17

Change in Average Home Price: 4Q ‘18 vs 4Q ‘17

+25.45%

Change in Falls Church City (22046)

+13.14%

Change in Falls Church City (22046)

-4.40%

Change in Bailey’s X-roads (22041)

-10.06%

Change in Bailey’s X-roads (22041)

Change in Sleepy Hollow (22042)

-2.36%

Change in Sleepy Hollow (22042)

Change in Pimmit Hills (22043)

-1.77%

Change in Pimmit Hills (22043)

Change in Lake Barcroft (22044)

-13.35%

Change in Lake Barcroft (22044)

0.00% +8.47% 0.00%