Falls Church Fall Senior Living

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SE NI O R LI V I NG

SEPTEMBER 29 - OCTOBER 5, 2022 | PAGE 11

2022 Fall Senior Living

Inside This Issue How Technological Advancements Are Helping Local Senior Citizens Page 12 The Senior Olympics: Not Your Average Athletics Competition Page 14 City of Falls Church Aging Resources Page 16 What Baby Boomers Want: Options! Senior Housing Delivers! Page 18 The Tricky Math of Retiring Into a Downturn Page 21

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FALLS CHURCH NEWS-PRESS | FCNP.COM

How Technological Advancements Are Helping Local Senior Citizens

by Kylee Toland

Falls Church News-Press

Let’s face it, technology can be confusing, especially for senior citizens. However, technological advancements are being made for people 55 and older; some of them making their lives easier, while others can save their lives altogether.

Nowadays, there are a variety of technological products for senior citizens to keep them active, as well as ensure safety. Whether it be a mobile scooter, a GPS shoe or an automatic walker, the City of Falls Church and surrounding areas are providing a variety of services, businesses and products for those who are older in age.

Bennet Helfgott is the owner and director of Mobility City in Alexandria. Helfgott stated the technological improvements for senior citizens has always “been there,” but rather there has been a lack of education for seniors to understand how this technology can “change their lives on a daily basis.”

Due to some senior citizens not knowing about the technological advancements being made for them, Helfgott said that “the minute they get into one of those technologically

advanced scooters or wheelchairs,” their attitudes change and they often leave the store “with a smile on their face.”

The store offers mobile scooters and transport chairs, lift chairs, rollators and more, with Helfgott stating it’s a “rewarding feeling” to see senior citizens using and enjoying their new product.

“They’ll look at me and say ‘You just changed my life,’” said Helfgott.

As technology for helping senior citizens is growing, The Kensington Falls Church provides the Insight Memory Care Center, a non-profit adult day health and resource center providing specialized care, support and education for individuals with Alzheimer’s disease and other memory impairments. Along with this program is innovative technology provided to the patients and their caregivers.

One of these technological innovations recommended by Kensington is the GPS shoe, which can allow a senior citizen to locate help when lost or a caregiver to find a senior citizen suffering from a memory impairment.

Another resource the facility provides is the MedicAlert program partnered with Medical Guardian.

Medical Guardian specializes in medical alert devices, which can be set up in one’s home, while they are “on-the-go” and on their mobile phones. If one is having a medical emergency, the push of a button can alert emergency services to respond to the incident. According to their website, 95 percent of customers surveyed said that Medical Guardian made “aging in place and maintaining independence easier.”

In Fairfax, two Chantilly High School seniors have designed an automatic walker that helps improve the mobility of people living with Parkinson’s Disease and senior citizens. Kaavya Karthikeyan and Akanksha Tibrewala were inspired to create their product “AutoTrem” after Tibrewala saw her great-grandmother suffer paralysis on one side of her body. She said it was “super difficult” for her great-grandmother to walk and “do simple tasks” like eating and sitting down.

Karthikeyan and Tibrewala focused the product on Parkinson’s patients and how it would give them the motivation to exercise. They both state that one of the main symptoms in Parkinson’s patients is the loss of motivation to do things, thus resulting in their muscles degenerating. If

a patient is able to exercise, muscular strength can be restored.

“Our goal is to help [Parkinson’s patients] exercise and motivate them to have that safety net of an automatic walker,” said Karthikeyan.

AutoTrem allows patients to not have to push the walker to get around, but rather “walk with the walker.” There are safety features which ensure that patients will not run into something, such as an ultrasonic sensor. The walker has been tested at multiple rehab centers in the local area, with Tibrewala stating that the people using the walker were “impressed by the features that it had” and were “encouraging about the walker” when it made exercising for them “easier and more fun.”

John Bagely, the Interim Director at The View Alexandria by Goodwin Living, said two of their campuses recently completed an upgrade to their health security system that features a motion sensor in independent resident apartments that triggers a daily check-in.

This new upgrade has helped both campuses ensure their residents’ safety as well as provide “psychosocial comfort” to residents who are ensured someone will check in on them if an emergency arises.

These are just a few of the many examples of technological advancements being made for senior citizens.

As more elderly citizens become aware of these new products, it shows that there is hope for them to live out the rest of their lives being active and staying safe.

AUTOTREM was designed by two Chantilly High School students for patients with Parkinson’s Disease. (Photo Courtesy: Kathleen Miller)

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SEPTEMBER 29 - OCTOBER 5, 2022 | PAGE 13

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PAGE 14 | SEPTEMBER 29 - OCTOBER 5, 2022

FALLS CHURCH NEWS-PRESS | FCNP.COM

The Senior Olympics: Not Your Average Athletics Competition

BY KYLEE TOLAND

FALLS CHURCH NEWS-PRESS

In 1982, an athletic event for adults over the age of 50 to participate in was created with only 80 competitors. Forty years later, the number of competitors has grown 10 times larger with about 800 participants and more than 70 events.

The Northern Virginia Senior Olympics (NVSO) celebrated its 40th anniversary by hosting hundreds of participants at 25 different venues throughout Northern Virginia. What started out as a small athletic event based in Fairfax County has grown to include nine jurisdictions in the Northern Virginia area, including the City of Falls Church, Arlington, Loudon and more.

This year, the NVSO started on September 10th and ended two weeks later on the 24th, offering participants a chance to become active with both newer and older athletic events, as well as working together and socializing.

In order for one to participate in the NVSO, they must

turn 50 no later than December 31st of the previous year. Most events are played by gender in five and ten year age groups.

Ages and experience of participants can range from first-time athletes to seasoned professionals. According to a recent article

by InsideNova, one athlete, Vera Punke of Arlington, is 107 years old and shows no sign of stopping her participation in the events.

Herb Levitan is the current chairman of the Northern Virginia Senior Olympics, as well as a participant in the event. Levitan became involved with NVSO 20 years ago after his wife found an article about it and suggested that he try it out. He said being a part of the Senior Olympics is “contagious” and what started out for him as a “modest” try at the event became something he annually participates in.

“It’s a lot of fun,” Levitan said. “It encourages me in particular to train throughout the year and thereby stay healthy and engaged.”

Over the years, the Senior Olympics have had various

NORTHERN VIRGINIA SENIOR OLYMPIC athletes participate in a pickleball match.

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activities participants can compete in. Whether it be track, cycling, swimming, bowling, tennis, scrabble or more, athletes can sign up for any event they deem fit for their abilities.

This year, NVSO introduced a new event focused on weight lifting. Back squats, shoulder presses and deadlifts were three of the activities offered in this

new event that athletes could compete in.

This year, the City of Falls Church had 70 individuals participate in the NVSO, with two Falls Church participants breaking records in freestyle swimming and diving.

Jonathan S. Ruskin is a Falls Church resident who has been a competitor in the Senior

Olympics for several years.

Ruskin was inspired to take part in the NVSO after retiring from the Federal Government in 2015, wanting to focus “heavily on maintaining both my physical and mental fitness.” He said his longtime personal trainer made him aware of the NVSO.

Continued on Page 19

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PAGE 16 | SEPTEMBER 29 - OCTOBER 5, 2022

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ARE YOU AGE 50+ AND A JOBSEEKER? JOIN US!

JCA’s Employment Expos and Career Gateway Can Help!

FALLS CHURCH NEWS-PRESS | FCNP.COM

City Of Falls Church Aging Services

A wide variety of services targeted to senior adults are available, including information and referral, links to resources, advocacy, community education, limited case management, counseling / consultation for persons with multiple needs, home visits, access to affordable assisted living, dental services, and more.

Fairfax Division of Adult & Aging Services

FREE & OPEN TO ALL 50+ JOBSEEKERS JCA's NORTHERN VIRGINIA VIRTUAL 50+ EMPLOYMENT EXPO via ZoomTM Friday, October 14th 10:00 a.m. - 2:00 p.m.

Age 50+ Jobseekers: Attend FREE Workshops in the morning and Network with area employers in the afternoon. Jobseekers Must Register to participate. Registration is Open and Free at virtualexpos.accessjca.org EMPLOYERS: Are you looking for Smart, Accomplished People? Find your next employee at the Expo! Register at virtualexpos.accessjca.org. ®.

Registration is Complimentary.

Questions? Email SeniorExpo@AccessJCA.org

Montgomery County, MD Virtual 50+ Employment Expos Made possible by a grant from Montgomery County Government

November 15, 2022 • January 10, 2023 March 21, 2023 • May 16, 2023 • June 13, 2023

Northern Virginia Virtual 50+ Employment Expos Funded by The Morris and Gwendolyn Cafritz Foundation

October 14, 2022 • February 17, 2023 • April 14, 2023

Are you 50+ and looking to jump start your job search?

Return to work with THE CAREER GATEWAY! An intensive, five-day job-search training program for the 50+ professional jobseeker.

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*October 31 & November 2, 4, 7, 9 (Interactive & Online) January 17, 18, 20, 23, 25 • February 27 & March 1, 3, 6, 8 April 17, 19, 21, 24, 26 • June 5, 7, 9, 12, 14

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Call (301) 255-4215 ®.

E-mail Career.Gateway@AccessJCA.org Visit accessjca.org/career-gateway/ Made possible by generous funding from Montgomery County Aging and Disability Services, The Morris and Gwendolyn Cafritz Foundation, Next50 Initiative, and JCA - the Jewish Council for the Aging

Through contract arrangements with the Division of Adult and Aging Services, City of Falls Church residents may access home-based care, Meals on Wheels, employment services, insurance counseling, volunteer opportunities, mandated adult protective services, and more. www.fairfaxcounty.gov/dfs/olderadultservices/

Call the Adult and Aging Services at 703-324-5411, TTY 703-449-1186.

Assisted Living Programs Through agreements with the City of Falls Church, Sunrise Senior Living offers set-aside beds and The Kensington offers subsidized assisted living to low and moderate-income City residents or members of their immediate families.

Sunrise Senior Living Set-Aside Program City of Falls Church residents or immediate family members of City residents considering assisted living may be eligible for a program that offer participants 62 and older with low and moderate incomes, a reduced rate for room and board at Sunrise Senior Living, located in the City of Falls Church. Based on needs, different levels of services are available. Any and all costs beyond the basic monthly room and board fee are exclusive of this program and charged at market rate. Person under 62 with disabilities may also be eligible.

Frequently Asked Questions on Sunrise SetAside Program www.fallschurchva.gov/DocumentCenter/ View/14285/Sunrise-Frequently-Asked-Questions

Policy and Procedures for Assisted Living Programs www.fallschurchva.gov/DocumentCenter/ View/14284/City-Assisted-Living-ProgramsPolicy_Sunrise-and-The-Kensington

Interest List Application for Assisted Living Programs www.fallschurchva.gov/DocumentCenter/View/7464

The Kensington Subsidized Program Through an agreement between The Kensington and the City, Housing and Human Services is offering eligible seniors the opportunity to participate in a subsidized assisted living program at this facility. You may qualify if you are a resident of the City or have a family mem-

ber who is a resident, are age 62 and older, and meet income eligibility guidelines.

Frequently Asked Questions on The Kensington Program

www.fallschurchva.gov/DocumentCenter/ View/14286/The-Kensington_Frequently-AskedQuestions

Policy and Procedures for Assisted Living Programs www.fallschurchva.gov/DocumentCenter/ View/14284/City-Assisted-Living-ProgramsPolicy_Sunrise-and-The-Kensington

Interest List Application for Assisted Living Programs

www.fallschurchva.gov/DocumentCenter/ View/7464

Senior Center The Recreation and Parks Department offers a consolidated program of activities including social activities, recreation programs and trips for area seniors at the Senior Center located in the Community. More information on Senior Center http://www.fallschurchva.gov/seniorcenter

Need Help If you are a resident who needs someone to perform a job such as yard work or snow shoveling, contact the Recreation and Parks at 703-248-5307 (TTY 711) Relief Programs for the Elderly and Persons with Disabilities The City of Falls Church provides Real Estate Tax Relief, Personal Property/Auto Decal Relief and Rent Relief to City residents who are either 65 or older, or permanently and totally disable, and meet the income and asset eligibility requirements.

Applications are available beginning in midFebruary of each year with a deadline date of April 15th.

Eligibility requirements: - Applicants must be residents of the City of Falls Church as of December 31st - Applicants must be 65 year of age, or permanently and totally disabled - For Rent Relief you cannot be receiving a rent subsidy - Income and asset requirements vary from program to program Resources Other City Programs for Seniors

www.fallschurchva.gov/DocumentCenter/ View/5883

Assisted Living Programs and Senior Housing Information

www.fallschurchva.gov/DocumentCenter/ View/7377

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SEPTEMBER 29 - OCTOBER 5, 2022 | PAGE 17

Clinical Alliance for Research & Education

Care ID Is Conducting Two New Trials: Could you be part of the next vaccine breakthrough? mRNA vaccines have changed the way we fight infectious diseases. Introducing Pfizer’s phase 3 research study for an investigational flu vaccine using mRNA technology.

Research is ongoing to evaluate an investigational mRNA flu vaccine. By participating in this study, you can help us learn if this investigational vaccine is safe and can help the body produce antibodies which may help fight off the flu. When you participate in a study, you’re helping to represent both your community and all people who are affected by the flu and other infectious diseases. Your participation could make a difference. This research study is enrolling people who: Are at least 18 years of age

Are generally healthy or have stable

chronic conditions Ready to learn more?

Contact the study team: Clinical Alliance for Research & Education – Have not received an investigational Infectious Diseases, LLC (CARE-ID) Participation lasts for about six months or licensed flu vaccine in the last 3289 Woodburn Road, Suite 250Annandale, VA 22003 six months www.careidresearch.com PHONE: 703-560-4821 There will be other study requirements the study team will [Or visit [www.fluvaccinestudy.com/mrnaphase3] for more information.] discuss with you if you participate in this study.

Your participation can help us learn more about preventing severe or acute illness from RSV

Find out today if the VANIR Study is right for you.

Learn about a new investigational vaccine called MVA-BN-RSV and whether it can protect people from getting seriously ill from Respiratory Syncytial Virus, or RSV. RSV can cause severe or acute respiratory illness in older adults

If you qualify, you may receive at no cost:

• The study vaccine or placebo • Close care and follow-up throughout the study • Reimbursement for study-related expenses (such as travel and meals)

CARE ID Clinical Alliance for Research & Education Infectious Diseases, LLC

You may be able to join the study if you: • Are 65 years of age or older • Are healthy or have one or more chronic medical conditions, including mild to moderate underlying illnesses such as chronic cardiac diseases, lung disease, congestive heart failure, hypertension, and type 2 diabetes mellitus

• Are willing and able to use a smartphone or tablet application to record information during the study

Other criteria will need to be met to confirm your eligibility for this study.

703-560-4821 • www.careidresearch.com

PAGE 18 | SEPTEMBER 29 - OCTOBER 5, 2022

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FALLS CHURCH NEWS-PRESS | FCNP.COM

What Baby Boomers Want: Options! Senior Housing Delivers

by Linda Baker New York Times

The pandemic crushed the senior housing market, cutting occupancy rates and stalling construction. Now, as the market begins an uneven rebound, developers are adapting to the coming wave of aging baby boomers with a new crop of living developments.

Specialized housing for older Americans has been around for decades. But shifting demographics are forcing the industry to diversify more rapidly across rates and services, yielding increasingly lavish residences for upper-income Americans as well as a growing number of affordable housing models.

For example, Trillium, a high-rise under construction in Northern Virginia near Washington, features restaurants, a wellness spa, and other boutique-hotel-style amenities and finishes. And in the Boston area, Opus Newton, a more modest development, will rely on resident volunteers to help reduce costs.

Developers are also experi-

menting with nontraditional models. In Loveland, Colorado, Kallimos Communities is planning a multigenerational development featuring 100 subsidized rental homes clustered around shared green spaces and offering dining, arts and wellness opportunities.

The aging of more and more baby boomers (an estimated 65 million in total) is creating “a big surge,” said Beth Mace, chief economist for the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care, a data service provider for the elder care industry.

Other changes are reshaping housing, from pandemic-fueled safety concerns and labor shortages to trends favoring more personalized and communitybased solutions. Housing for older Americans offers three general options: independent living, for active lifestyles; assisted living, which includes some medical care; and memory care. (Nursing homes provide nursing care and typically do not fall under the category of senior housing.)

“Everybody is trying to fig-

ure out the secret sauce — what the senior housing consumer wants,” Mace said. “Bottom line: You’re going to see a lot of options.”

Developers are banking on the fact that if they build enough variety, they will be able to draw the next generation of aging Americans.

“We have to design communities that cater to what boomers want, and that’s a difference between senior housing today and housing developed 10 or 20 years ago,” said Bobby Zeiller, vice chair and co-CEO of Silverstone Senior Living, the developer behind the Trillium.

After focusing on suburban-style senior communities, Silverstone is expanding into urban environments, Zeiller said. The industry, he said, “is evolving very fast.”

The average occupancy rate for the nation’s 31 largest senior housing markets was 81 percent in the first quarter of 2022, up from a low of 78 percent in the first quarter of 2021 but below the prepandemic level of 87 percent in 2020, Mace said.

The numbers are starting to

HIGH END 55+ PROPERTIES offer seniors a lot of luxury.

(Photo: News York Times)

tick up in select markets, according to data from the National Investment Center. In Miami, for example, construction as a share of inventory amounted to

11 percent in the first quarter of 2022, the second-highest level ever. But at the other end

Continued on Page 20

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The Northern Virginia Senior Olympics Helps Seniors Stay Active Continued from Page 14

Ruskin said his favorite event that the NVSO has to offer is Scrabble, which he won a silver medal in this year. Gold, silver and bronze medals are awarded after each event.

The “main impact” the NVSO has had on Ruskin was the “intense training” he went through to prepare for the basketball shooting competition. He said he spent “hours every day, both indoors and outdoors, daytime and at night, taking hundreds of shots, breaking only to have a drink of water.” However, Ruskin stated he enjoys participating in the events as it presents a “rare opportunity” to test his fitness against his peers.

As for the impact of NVSO on the local senior citizen community, Levitan said the event is a “friendly way” of encouraging seniors to stay healthy. The event allows opportunities for those who are more or less mobile to “stay engaged with their fellow senior citizens.” “Mild” activities are offered for those unable to participate in more athletic

events, such as competitions in board games, jigsaw puzzles, dominoes and more.

For former participants in the NVSO, being a part of the event had an impact on both their physical and mental health. Falls Church resident Tom Gittins said taking part in the event kept him “sane” when he first took part in it. He was inspired to get involved with the NVSO due to his love of swimming throughout his youth and adulthood. Not surprisingly, he said his favorite event was the “100 [meter] backstroke.”

Along with the Northern Virginia Senior Olympics, Gittins has also participated in the National Senior Games, which allows senior citizens around the country to take part in athletic events and competitions. Although he hasn’t participated in the NVSO for a while, he said the health aspect of the event is beneficial for local senior citizens.

Katie Murphy is a first time participant of the NVSO. She first learned about the event while playing pickleball at the Thomas Jefferson Community & Fitness Center in Arlington.

NORTHERN VIRGINIA SENIOR OLYMPICS offers activies like scrabble that aren’t physically strenuous. (Photo Courtesy: Tom Urman) Her love of the sport is what got her involved in the NVSO, and said it impacted her life because she was able to meet people that she now plays pickleball with.

As a Falls Church resident, Murphy recommends other local senior citizens become involved with the NVSO because “it’s a

solid competition without being too intense.” She also gave a shout out to the volunteers who helped with the event, who were “really nice people.” Although at times she got “nervous” when it came to competing against others, she said it was “kind of fun” to put herself “in a harder

situation where it doesn’t really matter.”

“It’s good to continue to challenge yourself,” Murphy said.

“We’re always asking children to challenge themselves, but for seniors, there’s room for growth, fun and achieving higher excellence in your life.”

The Kensington’s Family Forever Neighborhood Fall Fest Saturday, October 1, 2022 • 10am-2pm Gather with Us in the Heart of the Little City of Falls Church You’re invited to our Family Forever Neighborhood Fall Fest!

At The Kensington, our promise is “to love and care for your family as we do our own.”

That includes our neighbors in and around the Little City of Falls Church.

We are grateful to call this charming community our home and hope you’ll join us to celebrate family, friendship and fall fun. Stop by for an afternoon of food trucks seasonal treats, live music, arts and crafts, a petting zoo (until 12 noon) and more!

To RSVP or learn more, contact Kayla Peters at kpeters@kensingtonsl.com or 703-992-9868.

To RSVP, scan the QR code or visit the events tab of our website

700 W Broad St | Falls Church, VA | www.TheKensingtonFallsChurch.com | (703) 992-9868

PAGE 20 | SEPTEMBER 29 - OCTOBER 5, 2022

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Senior Housing is Growing Continued from Page 18

of the spectrum is Sacramento, California, where construction fell to about 1 percent, down from 17 percent in 2019.

Even before the pandemic, only about 11 percent of Americans older than 75 lived in senior housing. Strong preferences for aging in place is one reason for the low rate.

The high cost of housing is another factor, especially for the 8 million middle-income Americans who do not qualify for subsidies but cannot afford to pay out of pocket. The national median monthly rate for assisted living was $4,300 in 2021, according to a survey by Genworth, an insurance holding company. And the average monthly cost of memory care is $7,277, according to the National Investment Center.

Developers of luxury projects are betting on larger units, sophisticated design and amenities, and a heightened focus on social engagement and active living.

Coterie Cathedral Hill, a 208unit development that opened in San Francisco in April, features five restaurants, an outdoor pool, and landscaped courtyards and terraces. Wellness staff receive training through the Mayo Clinic, and an on-site care coordinator helps residents meet a broad range of mental, emotional and physical health goals, including assistance with social and philanthropic objectives.

A joint venture between real estate developer Related Cos. and Atria Senior Living, one of the nation’s largest senior living providers, Coterie focuses on affluent urban dwellers who

seek “consistency between the lifestyle they were accustomed to when they were living in a traditional high-rise,” said Joanna Mansfield, general manager of Coterie Hudson Yards, a second development that will open this fall in New York.

At Coterie Cathedral Hill, monthly rental rates range from $7,900 for a studio to $16,660 and up for two-bedroom residences.

At Coterie Cathedral Hill, monthly rental rates range from $7,900 for a studio to $16,660 and up for two-bedroom residences.

A new spate of thrifty business models focus on middle-income Americans. Opus Newton, for example, will require residents to volunteer 10 hours a week, giving them a stronger sense of purpose and community while “meaningfully reducing staff overhead costs,” said Amy Schectman, president and CEO of 2Life Communities, a nonprofit organization that is developing the project.

Other cost savers include outsourcing care and providing discounted memberships at the nearby Jewish Community Center, eliminating the need for in-house recreational facilities.

Schectman expressed confidence in the future of congregate senior living, despite lingering pandemic concerns.

“Coronavirus revealed a pandemic of loneliness and isolation,” she said. “Aging in place harms society by presenting the choice to live with others as a failure. We are creatures of community.”

Upfront costs for Opus Newton’s 174 units start at $391,000, a fee that many of the residents will pay by selling their

FALLS CHURCH NEWS-PRESS | FCNP.COM

SENIORS HAVE NEW OPTIONS where they CAN LIVE in luxury. homes.

Repurposing existing buildings is the key to solving the middle-market challenge, said Fee Stubblefield, CEO of The Springs Living, a developer in Portland, Oregon, with 18 properties serving seniors across the income spectrum.

The Springs Living has two luxury high-rises under construction, one on the Columbia River in Vancouver, Washington. The properties will include firewalls to cordon off floors in the event of a disease outbreak, and they will be certified to meet new health and wellness standards regarding design and operations.

Starting rents in the new buildings range from $3,700 to $10,000 per month.

There are two types of senior housing residents, Stubblefield said: those who want to live there and

those who have to. Those who want senior living are “a big portion of our society,” he said. “The social and wellness component is underbuilt for that population.”

Labor shortages add to the economic challenges facing developers of senior housing. Employment in long-term care declined 6.7 percent from February 2020 to December 2021, according to a recent analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

“Work-force stability is the most important factor in the future of housing and service for older adults,” Stubblefield said, adding that operators have an “obligation” to create career pathways for the entry-level staff who sustain the industry.

Bill Thomas, a co-founder of Kallimos Communities, offers

(Photo: News York Times)

another solution to the various challenges tied to the future of aging and retirement in the United States.

“The very best thing you can have for helping you stay independent is damn good neighbors,” he said.

The first Kallimos community, a partnership with the Loveland Housing Authority, is rooted in the idea that older Americans can be supported in homes designed for elder living in communityoriented mixed-age neighborhoods.

“Young people and elders have been living together and supporting each other for many millennia,” Thomas said. “The idea that we’ve wandered into a cul-desac of history where young people don’t see any merit in being around old people is just wrong.”

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The Tricky Math of Retiring Into a Downturn

by Tara Siegel Bernard New York Times

Most Americans finance their retirement with a certain amount of faith: Investing will help their savings keep pace with inflation, institutions will continue to work as they always have, it will all work out in the end.

It’s challenging to maintain that optimism in moments like these, when it seems just about everything is at stake and nothing is certain. You could call the American approach to retirement gambling, and you wouldn’t be wrong.

Of course the future has always been uncertain. It was unknowable in 1973, during one of the highestinflation periods; in 2000, when the dot-com bubble burst; and again in 2008, when the housing and financial markets collapsed. And it’s opaque now, when the markets are down about 11.6 percent year to date while inflation remains high, at 8.5 percent in July, although it slowed slightly from the previous month. Bonds usually provide some cushion when stocks plummet, but they haven’t provided much of a buffer, either.

“This year has been unnerving for retirees because it has been a triple whammy — falling stock prices, falling bond prices and high inflation,” said Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning at Morningstar.

Unlike younger workers, retirees don’t have the luxury of waiting it out. Timing matters. Market declines that occur during the first five years of retirement can do significant and permanent damage, making it more likely a portfolio will be depleted — largely because there’s less money left intact for when the market (eventually) recovers. It’s less risky to experience such a decline further into retirement simply because the money no longer has to last quite as long.

T. Rowe Price recently peered into the past half-century to see how people who retired into different downturns fared, even in periods of high inflation. The good news: Their portfolios performed well, or are expected to. The less good: Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The firm’s research is rooted in the widely known 4 percent rule of thumb, which found that retirees who withdrew 4 percent of their retirement portfolio balance in the first year, and then adjusted that dollar amount for inflation each year thereafter, created a paycheck that lasted 30 years.

Using that framework, T. Rowe

Price analyzed how investors with a $500,000 portfolio — 60 percent stocks and 40 percent bonds — would fare over 30 years had they retired at the beginning of the year in 1973, 2000 and 2008. (The latter two periods are still running.) They would all start withdrawing $1,667 each month — or $20,000 annually — and then increase that amount each year by the previous year’s actual inflation rate.

Let’s rewind to 1973, which, given the oil embargo and high inflation rates, echoes the present. Retirees then would have had to watch their portfolios shrink to $328,000, or nearly 35 percent, by September 1974, and inflation rise by more than 12 percent by the end of the same year, the analysis found. An incredibly painful one-two punch.

The retirees had no idea at the time that circumstances would turn around, but within a decade into retirement, the portfolio balance had reached $500,000 again. And even after the downturn of 2000, at the end of 30 years, the portfolio had soared to well over $1 million.

“It all kind of pins on starting out with that 4 percent withdrawal rate,” said Judith Ward, a senior financial planner and thought leadership director at T. Rowe Price.

She conceded that retirees don’t actually spend in straight lines, and that they tend to spend more earlier in retirement. But the study, she said, underscores the importance of starting with a conservative spending plan when a portfolio is down.

“That lever of how much you are spending is really a strong lever that works,” she added.

Using the same approach with those who retired into more recent bear markets — in the periods after 2000 and 2008, when the stock market lost roughly half its value — the portfolios were also projected to be sustainable, even though retirees still have roughly eight and 14 years to go before they hit 30 years of retirement. (Ward’s conclusions also held for other scenarios, including one in which inflation persisted at 9% percent for the remainder of the 30-year retirement periods.)

“These scenarios assume the investor didn’t adjust their behavior due to the inevitable anxiety steep market losses likely caused,” Ward said. “It’s human nature to adapt and adjust, and retirees would likely want to modify their plans in some way.”

That adds an even stronger margin of safety, she said.

Other experts caution retirees not to take too much comfort in the past results because the future — always

uncertain! — might have something else in store.

“Using the past provides false confidence,” said David Blanchett, head of retirement research at PGIM, the asset management firm part of Prudential Financial. “The U.S. and Australia have had two of the best capital markets over the past 100 years. That is useful, but you have to look forward.”

That’s why financial experts suggest taking a flexible approach to withdrawals, focusing on what you can control in that moment as conditions change.

Here are some strategies that may help.

Reframing. One approach is to think about your withdrawals in terms of needs, wants and wishes.

How much of your basic needs are covered by predictable sources of income like Social Security or pensions, and how much more do you need to withdraw to cover the remainder? Maybe the withdrawal rate to cover your basics is 3 percent to 4 percent, but your wants might be somewhere from 4 percent to 6 percent.

“The most important thing is to have your needs covered,” Blanchett said.

A cash bucket. The big idea here is to keep at least a year’s worth of basic expenses — not covered by predictable income sources, like Social Security — in cash or something equivalent, so that retirees experiencing a downturn can spend out of this bucket instead of having to touch their portfolio, giving it more time to recover.

This approach requires some planning, but it can ease anxiety for retirees who find comfort in compartmentalization. Critics have said keeping a meaningful amount of a portfolio in cash may pose a drag, hurting returns over the long run, but for many retirees it may provide a plan they can stick with — and that’s the most important factor.

Guardrails. This strategy, created by financial planner Jonathan Guyton and computer scientist William Klinger, encourages retirees to be flexible, increasing their withdrawals when the market is doing well and pulling back when it is not.

Their research found that retirees are usually safe starting out with a withdrawal rate of roughly 5 percent for the first year (then adjusting that amount up each year for infla-

SEPTEMBER 29 - OCTOBER 5, 2022 | PAGE 21

MARKET DECLINES during the first five years of retirement can have a significant effect on a financial portfolio, but remaining flexible can mitigate the damage. (Photo:New York Times) tion) — as long as they cut back when they receive a warning signal.

That warning light starts blinking when the withdrawal rate increases a certain amount — or one-fifth — above its initial rate. So if the portfolio plummets and the amount withdrawn now translates into 6 percent or more, up from 5 percent, retirees would need to cut their withdrawal dollar amount by 10 percent.

For example, consider a retiree who in the first year collects 5 percent, or $25,000, from a $500,000 portfolio. If inflation was 9 percent, the next year’s withdrawal would normally rise to $27,250. But if a guardrail was tripped — that is, if the portfolio plummeted to roughly $415,000, making that $25,000 now equivalent to a 6 percent percent withdrawal rate — the amount withdrawn would instead need to decline to $24,525 (or 10 percent less than $27,250).

Conversely, if the portfolio grows, causing the withdrawal rate to shrink to 4%, the retiree can increase the dollar amount withdrawn by 10 percent and adjust for inflation thereafter.

This rule is generally applied until the final 15 years of retire-

ment — for example, an 85-yearold couple who want to be safe until age 100 can stop using it, as long as they aren’t concerned about how much money they want to leave to their heirs.

Check up. This is another rough rule of thumb that helps retirees figure out whether they may be withdrawing too much.

Let’s say you’re retiring at 70 and you decide you will probably need your money to last until age 95. Divide one by 25 (the number of years you need the money to last): That translates into a 4 percent withdrawal rate for that year. With a $500,000 portfolio, that’s $20,000.

But if you’re on track to pull out $30,000 that year — or 6 percent — you may want to pull back.

“It’s an ongoing gut check,” Blanchett said. “Is this going to work long term? And that is a really simple way to get an answer.”

And if you don’t adjust? Just understand that you may have to make more drastic changes later.

“You are just trading money with yourself over time,” Blanchett added.

By Tara Siegel Bernard © 2022 The New York Times